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|OT| French Presidential Elect 2017 - La France est toujours insoumise; Le Pen loses

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France's interior ministry says with 20 million votes counted, Marine Le Pen has 24.38%, ahead of Emmanuel Macron on 22.19%.

Big cities still yet to be counted.

Imagine if Melenchon pulls it back lol on Macron.
 
Macron is basically a Blairite, which is interesting because France never had it's Blair/Schröder moment in the 1990s where the traditional left-wing party embraced third way politics.

But yeah, the hard left hate him of course because they hate third way politicians almost more than they hate the political right.

Personally, I'm fine with a Blairite candidate in the year 2017 and I would have reeled at such a prospect five years ago. Well, as long as the guy doesn't start to emulate Blair by engaging in an illegal war in the Middle East...
 
So where does all this "He wants to destroy the welfare state" stuff from when he is left-wing socially?

Social in social liberal is in regards to social issues not socialism. It's generally used in the phrase, "I'm a social liberal and a fiscal conservative". Which means the person is for a woman's right to choose, is against racism, and against homophobia while right wing on economic issues.
 
I've heard this before, somewhere.


Chalk it up to three countries, all predominantly white, looking at how the world is becoming more interconnected and minority populations are booming. That scares them shitless into the point of voting for white nationalism because hey, they're the ones that benefit from that.

but shitty vote is not only in the west: Turkey and Indonesia or Duterte election are not being really progressive.
The same for Kadyrov and Chechnya.

The french result are actually quite encouraging: Macron is progressive and will be very probably the next president...
 

Porcupine

Member
It seems like the only options are "bad" and "catastrophic."

Is it really like that? It seems here in Germany most of the people think that Macron would be a very fitting president at the moment. And even if you don't agree with his views I don't see a "bad" candidate as in "Trump"-bad.
 

Trickster

Member
France 24 has a live result page but nothing has really been posted yet.

This is taken from a danish newpaper, posted 11 minutes ago -

(did a quick translation from danish) With 20 millions votes counted. The result so far shows that Le Pen gets 24,38 percent of the votes, Macron 22,19 percent, Fillion 19,63 percent and Melenchon 19,09 percent. The french interiorministerium informs according to Reuters.

If that's accurate, I guess I can at least feel somewhat happy that it seems Macron is certain to be in the runoff.
 

BiggNife

Member
If Mélenchon don't call for a Macron vote it would be certainly an earthquake for french politics. I think he is capable to do something like that, since he apparently have no issue to saying "she is right" about MLP stance during the presidential debate when he felt the need too.

If he does call for a Macron vote, it would be an earthquake for his base though. The same people who are insulting us for not having voted "useful" are now calling for abstention against fascism. Brillant.
Melanchon sounds like he is basically Bernie Sanders but French, right down to being wishy washy on supporting anyone who does not fully agree with his extremely specific views.
 

Mimosa97

Member
giphy.gif
 

BiggNife

Member
Is it really like that? It seems here in Germany most of the people think that Macron would be a very fitting president at the moment. And even if you don't agree with his views I don't see a "bad" candidate as in "Trump"-bad.
I honestly don't know, which is why I'm asking.

And I would lump both Trump and Le Pen as "catastrophically bad" candidates. Macron sounds nowhere near as bad as those two but I get the impression people really aren't huge fans of his economic policies.
 

Mimosa97

Member
Is it really like that? It seems here in Germany most of the people think that Macron would be a very fitting president at the moment. And even if you don't agree with his views I don't see a "bad" candidate as in "Trump"-bad.

I voted for him
(because I felt like I had no choice)
but let's be real. The reason why people like him in Germany is because they know he'll do everything angela tells him to do. Just like Hollande before him. He'll be a yes man. It's sad but it's true.
 

benjipwns

Banned
So where does all this "He wants to destroy the welfare state" stuff from when he is left-wing socially?
They're using the Nolan chart's definitions. The welfare state is usually considered on the "economic" axis with taxes or whatever...left-wing socially is pro-gay/minority rights, often pro-choice, pro-free speech, pro-diversity, etc. It'd be more accurate to probably call it the "cultural" axis, I dunno.

I think truthfully Macron is probably best classified as a left-liberal; which is to say traditionally right of a social democrat or socialist, but traditionally left of right-liberals, Christian democrats, and conservatives. But it is difficult to compare any politicians across countries. I also think Macron appears further right because he is the third left-most serious candidate because Melanchon and Hamon remained in the race. Certainly in an alternate world where Macron was the PS candidate, he would be right of what was typical for the party, but he is also certainly left of every feasible LR candidate.

The complication of European domestic politics by the addition of the populist-nationalist versus cosmopolitan-EU dimension is making it harder to tell. If you had told me ten years ago that the mainstream left across Europe would generally admire Merkel as a defender of our common values, I would have laughed. And yet, here we are.
Rene Remond's ever expanding classifications work arguably as well with the "left-wing" I'd argue.
 

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
As someone who knows admittedly little about French politics, is there any outcome from this that would have been considered "good?" Fillion sounds worse than Macron and while Melanchon had a huge spike in support, it sounds like it was never likely he'd be in the top two.

It seems like the only options are "bad" and "catastrophic."

As a non-French citizen, personally I would consider myself somewhere between a left-liberal and a social democrat depending on the issue (Bernie was closest to me politically in the US race, I often vote for the social democratic party in Canada, I'd be left of Labour in the UK, I'd vote PS in France in general, I'd probably vote D66 or GroenLinks or maybe Labour in Netherlands, etc.) I don't view it as a choice between bad and catastrophic.

Le Pen is catastrophic, there's no doubt about that. She is against dignity, against kindness, against solidarity, and her actions to destabilize the greatest agent for peace the world has ever assembled are unconscionable. More to the point, her father should have spent most of his life rotting in jail and it's abominable that she has a public presence at all. If I was a prosecutor, I'd probably have tried to make charges stick over the Vel D'hiv stuff a few weeks ago. I do not see how anyone who has a love for peace and unity could ever support her.

But I view Macron as acceptable. France does not end every time it elects a UPM president. I am concerned that Macron will take steps against French economic values, but those questions can be litigated later, and at any rate I think he is less likely to do so than any UPM/LR candidate. I liked Segoline Royal over Hollande, think Hollande was a truly awful president, and think Hamon is a good candidate (actually maybe the best PS has had in a long time) -- but given that the winds of change were what they were, Macron is not bad in my opinion.
 

nubbe

Member
I voted for him
(because I felt like I had no choice)
but let's be real. The reason why people like him in Germany is because they know he'll do everything angela tells him to do. Just like Hollande before him. He'll be a yes man. It's sad but it's true.

that's really relieving to hear
 

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
Rene Remond's ever expanding classifications work arguably as well with the "left-wing" I'd argue.

I am generally suspicious of qualitative typologies, and also suspicious of anyone who claims a country's politics are best explained in national context rather than as part of trans-national currents of change in the world. But there is a lot of work in the cooker right now on quantitative ideological scaling in countries with non-informative roll-call voting and I think in the end it is likely that some of the division he highlights are born out behaviourally as well.
 

KingSnake

The Birthday Skeleton
Aren't the economic policies in the government's​ responsibility (with the backing off the Parliament) rather than the president's?
 

Jisgsaw

Member
A more liberal stance means a less welfare state one. When you think the state shouldn't have a word on what happens inside companies and worker's rights and conditions... this is pretty self explanatory.

Point to you.
For me the welfare is more about safety nets against poverty, but it does cover more than that.
That said, 35 hours weeks are kinda unmaterial for me, the joys of being a "cadre"...

I honestly don't know, which is why I'm asking.

And I would lump both Trump and Le Pen as "catastrophically bad" candidates. Macron sounds nowhere near as bad as those two but I get the impression people really aren't huge fans of his economic policies.

Well, Macron more or less stands for the continuation of the status quo; a lot of people want change.
 

Porcupine

Member
I voted for him
(because I felt like I had no choice)
but let's be real. The reason why people like him in Germany is because they know he'll do everything angela tells him to do. Just like Hollande before him. He'll be a yes man. It's sad but it's true.

I've never heard anyone in Germany say anything like that. I like him because he's pro-EU, progressive and anti-fascist etc.
 

Arkam

Member
Gotta wonder how much this election is costing the French people. So many police/protesters on the streets. Not judging anyone as I am too far removed to have an informed opinion. Just seems like this will be very pricey when all is done and would love to see estimated figures.
 

Magni

Member
Mélenchon is saddened by both candidates in the second round being in favor of the current institutions? Has he not read MLP's program with regards to Europe?
 

GAMEPROFF

Banned
I voted for him
(because I felt like I had no choice)
but let's be real. The reason why people like him in Germany is because they know he'll do everything angela tells him to do. Just like Hollande before him. He'll be a yes man. It's sad but it's true.

Not really. Never heard anyone ever talking stuff like this.
 

azyless

Member
Don't get me wrong I'm obviously disappointed there's no leftist in the 2nd round but acting as if Macron is the worst thing ever to happen to France is a little baffling. Specially when Fillon/Le Pen was a very realistic option.
 
IIRC the same happened 15 years ago when her father went to the second round. Chirac got over 82% of the votes. I understand it´s a different situation but i do see the majority of the French uniting behind Macron. He will probably win by a large margin.
 

-Plasma Reus-

Service guarantees member status
I voted for him
(because I felt like I had no choice)
but let's be real. The reason why people like him in Germany is because they know he'll do everything angela tells him to do. Just like Hollande before him. He'll be a yes man. It's sad but it's true.
More about france not leaving europe.
 

BiggNife

Member
As a non-French citizen, personally I would consider myself somewhere between a left-liberal and a social democrat depending on the issue (Bernie was closest to me politically in the US race, I often vote for the social democratic party in Canada, I'd be left of Labour in the UK, I'd vote PS in France in general, I'd probably vote D66 or GroenLinks or maybe Labour in Netherlands, etc.) I don't view it as a choice between bad and catastrophic.

Le Pen is catastrophic, there's no doubt about that. She is against dignity, against kindness, against solidarity, and her actions to destabilize the greatest agent for peace the world has ever assembled are unconscionable. More to the point, her father should have spent most of his life rotting in jail and it's abominable that she has a public presence at all. If I was a prosecutor, I'd probably have tried to make charges stick over the Vel D'hiv stuff a few weeks ago. I do not see how anyone who has a love for peace and unity could ever support her.

But I view Macron as acceptable. France does not end every time it elects a UPM president. I am concerned that Macron will take steps against French economic values, but those questions can be litigated later, and at any rate I think he is less likely to do so than any UPM/LR candidate. I liked Segoline Royal over Hollande, think Hollande was a truly awful president, and think Hamon is a good candidate (actually maybe the best PS has had in a long time) -- but given that the winds of change were what they were, Macron is not bad in my opinion.
Thanks for this explanation. I'm still trying to wrap my head around all of this since it's obvious American and European politics don't have a ton in common.
 
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