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|OT| French Presidential Elect 2017 - La France est toujours insoumise; Le Pen loses

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G

gutter_trash

Banned
funkystudent said:
Le Pen doubters mirroring the Trump naysayers so much with the "they wont get that far", "the polls are not on their side", "surely this will be the end of their campaign" and here we are, much closer then anyone would have predicted and only getting closer to her potentially winning.


I am not sure what could make me rest easy about this one after the last year of upsets. Just got to hope for the best I guess.
Click to expand...

false equivalancy and false relevancy
 
A

Ac30

Member
funkystudent said:
Le Pen doubters mirroring the Trump naysayers so much with the "they wont get that far", "the polls are not on their side", "surely this will be the end of their campaign" and here we are, much closer then anyone would have predicted and only getting closer to her potentially winning.


I am not sure what could make me rest easy about this one after the last year of upsets. Just got to hope for the best I guess.
Click to expand...

The polls were actually on target this election though. The Hillary camp's hubris was their downfall.

LordKano said:
You also need to understand that, unlike Trump, Le Pen actually had a terrible campaign. Even though it may seems bizarre when looking at the numbers. Not to say Macron had a particularly good one though.
Click to expand...

What else did she majorly wrong beside Val D'hiv?
 
E

ebil

Member
funkystudent said:
Le Pen doubters mirroring the Trump naysayers so much with the "they wont get that far", "the polls are not on their side", "surely this will be the end of their campaign" and here we are, much closer then anyone would have predicted and only getting closer to her potentially winning.


I am not sure what could make me rest easy about this one after the last year of upsets. Just got to hope for the best I guess.
Click to expand...
France doesn't have an electoral college.

She's in round 2 so she definitely has a shot at it, but she's a very unlikely president.
 
G

Gurgelhals

Member
Just to sum up:

- A gloriously embarrassing disaster at the AfD party congress in Germany yesterday with another inner-party war breaking out just a few months before the federal election.

- The candidate with the best chances to beat the fascist candidate in the French presidential election doesn't just get to the second round, but manages to come out on top with a comfortable lead.

All in all, a good weekend.
 
M

Muffin1611

Banned
Average poll saw Clinton win with +2%. She got +2% of the popular vote.

Brexit polls were constantly skimming the 50/50.

How anyone can think that Le Pen is able to make up 26% in two weeks or the AfD achieve 51% up from their 10% is beyond me.

"But see what happened with Brexit and Trump" really doesn't cut it.

And with saying polls are useless you directly play into the hands of the far-right.
 
T

tuxfool

Banned
LordKano said:
You also need to understand that, unlike Trump, Le Pen actually had a terrible campaign. Even though it may seems bizarre when looking at the numbers. Not to say Macron had a particularly good one though.
Click to expand...

Eh, Trump also had a terrible campaign. It was a shambling disaster.

I don't think she has much of a chance, but to compare the effect of the campaigns is an incorrect attribution.
 
E

EmiPrime

Member
funkystudent said:
Le Pen doubters mirroring the Trump naysayers so much with the "they wont get that far", "the polls are not on their side", "surely this will be the end of their campaign" and here we are, much closer then anyone would have predicted and only getting closer to her potentially winning.


I am not sure what could make me rest easy about this one after the last year of upsets. Just got to hope for the best I guess.
Click to expand...

This isn't true.

Le Pen was polling at 25%+ for most of her campaign, she is now expected to get 21%~. The FN were hoping to get 30% on the big day for her to stand a credible chance in the second round instead she lost a few percentage points in the polls in the last month and the final result bears this out.

This is a horrible result for her, her militants are said to be seriously gutted about tonight and for a while were even worried Mélenchon had pipped her to it.
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
You have to imagine LR's going to do a much more thorough vetting next time. Or, you know, actually try to get their guy to step down when he said he would.

And the Socialists won't have Hollande hanging over their head.
 
H

HaloRose

Banned
ebil said:
Definitely. I'm more scared about this than about the upcoming election. She's still relatively young, and Macron will surely disappoint.
Click to expand...

I know she won't win this election i think in 2022 it will be hard right wing candidate against her or something else is far right even more worst then her.
 
Alx

Alx

Member
funkystudent said:
Le Pen doubters mirroring the Trump naysayers so much with the "they wont get that far", "the polls are not on their side", "surely this will be the end of their campaign" and here we are, much closer then anyone would have predicted and only getting closer to her potentially winning.


I am not sure what could make me rest easy about this one after the last year of upsets. Just got to hope for the best I guess.
Click to expand...

MyV2rw2.png


Poll latest prediction (IFOP last Friday) :
Macron 24.5%
Le Pen 22.5%
Fillon 19.5%
Mélenchon 18.5%

Estimated results today at 21:55 :
Macron 23.9%
Le Pen 21.7%
Fillon 20%
Mélenchon 19.2%

Seems to me that the result is very close to what was predicted.
 
R

Red Arremer

Member
Muffin1611 said:
Average poll saw Clinton win with +2%. She got +2% of the popular vote.

Brexit polls were constantly skimming the 50/50.

How anyone can think that Le Pen is able to make up 26% in two weeks or the AfD achieve 51% up from their 10% is beyond me.

"But see what happened with Brexit and Trump" really doesn't cut it.

And with saying polls are useless you directly play into the hands of the far-right.
Click to expand...

Let's also not forget that in Austria, where the right wing party is insanely strong, the right winger presidential candidate went into the second round against the green party candidate with a lead, but ended up losing the second round not only once, but twice, with the repeat increasing the green party candidate's lead even further.
And the gap between the 2 Austrian presidential candidates was a lot lot LOT closer than between Macron and Le Pen.
 
C

Chezzymann

Member
Muffin1611 said:
Average poll saw Clinton win with +2%. She got +2% of the popular vote.

Brexit polls were constantly skimming the 50/50.

How anyone can think that Le Pen is able to make up 26% in two weeks or the AfD achieve 51% up from their 10% is beyond me.

"But see what happened with Brexit and Trump" really doesn't cut it.

And with saying polls are useless you directly play into the hands of the far-right.
Click to expand...

But we dont know how much will switch to le pen from the other candidates votes, just cause they're pledging support to macron doesnt mean the majority of remaining voters will consolidate around him.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
benjipwns said:
You have to imagine LR's going to do a much more thorough vetting next time. Or, you know, actually try to get their guy to step down when he said he would.
Click to expand...

Fillon was at like 10% in the primary with two weeks left and Juppe was dominating the general polls and then French conservative primary voters were like "well, why not pick the guy we know nothing about!"

It was an epic self-own.
 
O

Oriel

Member
Gurgelhals said:
Just to sum up:

- A gloriously embarrassing disaster at the AfD party congress in Germany yesterday with another inner-party war breaking out just a few months before the federal election.

- The candidate with the best chances to beat the fascist candidate in the French presidential election doesn't just get to the second round, but manages to come out on top with a comfortable lead.

All in all, a good weekend.
Click to expand...

First the Dutch and now the French elections. Merely proving that despite the insanity currently taking place in the Anglosphere many other countries aren't quite ready to embrace the populist tide supposedly sweeping the West. I wonder will Putin be looking to call in all the loans he doled out to Le Pen, Wilders and AfD. Fuck these uber fascists!
 
M

Muffin1611

Banned
Chezzymann said:
But we dont know how much will switch to lepen from the other candidates votes, just cause they're pledging support to macron doesnt mean the majority of remaining voters will consolidate around him.
Click to expand...

Yes we know, that's what the runoff polls are for. As always there is some margin of error involved, but not 26%.
 
D

Dilly

Banned
HaloRose said:
I know she won't win this election i think in 2022 it will be hard right wing candidate against her or something else is far right even more worst then her.
Click to expand...

Who knows what happens to the FN after the second round.

People fearing AfD reaching 50% is beyond idiotic.
 
K

Kusagari

Member
funkystudent said:
Le Pen doubters mirroring the Trump naysayers so much with the "they wont get that far", "the polls are not on their side", "surely this will be the end of their campaign" and here we are, much closer then anyone would have predicted and only getting closer to her potentially winning.


I am not sure what could make me rest easy about this one after the last year of upsets. Just got to hope for the best I guess.
Click to expand...

What are you even talking about? The polls have had her getting around this percentage in the initial vote forever.
 
K

KingSnake

The Birthday Skeleton
If Trump and Clinton would have run in a French electoral system, Clinton would have won quite comfortably (as she won the popular vote). That should tell you how stupid the analogies between the second round and Trump/Clinton are. Think before embarrassing yourselves.
 
O

oti

Banned
Oriel said:
First the Dutch and now the French elections. Merely proving that despite the insanity currently taking place in the Anglosphere many other countries aren't quite ready to embrace the populist tide supposedly sweeping the West. I wonder will Putin be looking to call in all the loans he doled out to Le Pen, Wilders and AfD. Fuck these uber fascists!
Click to expand...

Hey guys, let's not forget about Austria, okay? For once they did the right thing, let's not forget that.
 
George Washington

George Washington

Member
tuxfool said:
Eh, Trump also had a terrible campaign. It was a shambling disaster.
Click to expand...

Recap:
-Mexicans are rapists
-build wall
-grabbing pussy
-Mexican judge
-Obama not American
-no support from his own party
-etc.

Trump still won with his dumpster fire campaign.

If there is another terrorist attack, she will win. Votes are influenced more by emotions than facts.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
benjipwns said:
You have to imagine LR's going to do a much more thorough vetting next time. Or, you know, actually try to get their guy to step down when he said he would.

And the Socialists won't have Hollande hanging over their head.
Click to expand...

Hamon could always come back - he's probably the best candidate that PS has fielded in years.
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
George Washington said:
Recap:
-Mexicans are rapists
-build wall
-grabbing pussy
-Mexican judge
-Obama not American
-no support from his own party
-etc.

Trump still won with his dumpster fire campaign.

If there is another terrorist attack, she will win. Votes are influenced more by emotions than facts.
Click to expand...
Says the guy who never even faced a popular vote for his two terms.
 
A

Apzu

Member
So Macron will probably be the next president, unless Le Pen can do a miracle and close the gap between them. But what about the parliament? Is there a chance that FN will get a lot of seats?
 
Green Yoshi

Green Yoshi

Member
Mimosa97 said:
I like everything about Merkel and Germany except the economical domination of Germany. Even Schulz admitted it. The strong euro is killing us (France, Spain, Italy etc...). Germany needs to start thinking about european countries as a whole and not only about their own industry/economical success. That's the only thing that will save the Euro in the long run.
Click to expand...

In late 1989 France extracted German commitment to the Monetary Union in return for support for German reunification. And now some politicians in France are complaining about the Euro. Furthermore you can't compare France with countries like Spain and Greece, that suffered from dictatorships just a few decades ago. When German's economy struggled at the beginning of the 21st century other countries complained, too. Because a lot of countries in Europe benefit from a strong Germany. For example Poland and the Czech Republic.
 
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