Alx
Member
Nah I doubt it. The 60/40 ratio seems too likely right now, with all the negativity and
skepticism. I too would love for the FN to lose in a 80/20 again, but things are definitely different today.
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|OT| French Presidential Elect 2017 - La France est toujours insoumise; Le Pen loses
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Nah I doubt it. The 60/40 ratio seems too likely right now, with all the negativity and
skepticism. I too would love for the FN to lose in a 80/20 again, but things are definitely different today.
I agree and the funny thing is that a lot of germans hate the Euro and don't even understand that it's the Euro together with the high export that makes Germany so strong.
This isn't the same. He is polling too high. If Le Pen got 35% today maybe. But unless there is som major security/terrorist event or Macron makes some major gaffe, he will win easily. But people are too hopeful for Macron. Marine Le Pen is still leading according to the Interior Ministry and is predicted to get nearly 39% to 40% of the national 2nd round vote. Think about that. He has effectively doubled far right vote in about 10-15 years. Even moderate France has done things like ban hijabs, barely take in any Syrian migrants because of that sentiment.
R_thanatos
Member
The strenght of "Les frondeurs" the wave inside the party is going to have his influence quite reduced , unless the legislatives manages to soften the blow.
cyberheater
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I hope you are right but there is something horrible going on here. We'll know it two weeks.
You're not the first person to make this post and it wasn't funny the first time either.This will mean the end for Le Pen.
What's incredible though ?
He ridiculed the socialist party ? Awesome ! That's a sick accomplishment.
Instead of trying to work out anything with Hamon he let his pride get to him and ignored him, and he successfully managed to lose and not make it to the second round.
His score is great, it's also useless because he can't do anything of it (and also said he wasn't interested in becoming the new opposing left party).
So in the end it's just a waste, and that's why he is pissed.
Systolique
Member
Wow, this is one of the worst speech I've sit through, and he took 2hrs to refine it... what happened?
Honestly, how invested in French politics are you ? I really don't see how anyone could claim "Le Pen will win" right now.
Palette Swap
Member
At this point, I assume you contrarian chicken littles want this result.
Two narratives were proven wrong tonight:
- polls are always wrong. They were mostly on the money. There was no great hidden MLP vote.
- FN is the first party of France. Well, not anymore.
As smart as it is novel.This will mean the end for Le Pen.
Sgt. Kabukiman
Banned
Look, another one! How cute.
Either protesting or voting to eject Fillion (same for the 1% of Macron that will switch to LePen)
With our system, a LOT of people are building complex strategies. Like left voters voting in the right primaries and right voters voting in the left primaries *against* the most "dangerous" candidate for their own candidate.
You need a degree to vote now
He won less seats than he did in 2010.
We've heard this before...
gutter_trash
Banned
anything is an upgrade from Hollande
Merkel is a TERRIBLE speaker. Maybe that's a good sign lol.
SpacePirate Ridley
Member
You probably also said Geert Wilders would win. You probably dont want to talk about thow you failed on that one.
Cant you see this is not the same type of system as the other 2?
Who is shitting the bed? Macron or Melenchon?
Alx
Member
He's not a good speaker to begin with. Also he must be exhausted, which doesn't help.
But yeah, definitely not a good speaker.
I'm sad to see such a second turn but oh well, Mélenchon might have lost now and he probably won't be a candidate next time but France Insoumise is not dead yet.
I'm especially disgusted to see Fillon that high, I didn't have a lot of faith in my fellow french people, but now what's left of it is just gone.
As someone who voted for Mélenchon, I probably won't vote for the next round. I know the right thing to do is to unite against Le Pen and I hope she won't win, but this kind of way of doing politics is what put us in a status quo between UMP/LR and the PS for all these years, which is exactly what's going to happen again.
I'm especially disgusted to see Fillon that high, I didn't have a lot of faith in my fellow french people, but now what's left of it is just gone.
As someone who voted for Mélenchon, I probably won't vote for the next round. I know the right thing to do is to unite against Le Pen and I hope she won't win, but this kind of way of doing politics is what put us in a status quo between UMP/LR and the PS for all these years, which is exactly what's going to happen again.
It's 2002 all over again, those thinking that Le Pen stands a chance are clearly lacking basic knowledge on french political history.
At least for them it will be a good surprise when Macron wins 65/35 or with an even bigger margin and we will be praised by our fellow non french Gaffers.
I don't think I'l change my choice by then though, I understand the concern but I'm not acting under any kind of emotion after the results (which are almost perfectly in line with what I expected for the top 4) quite the opposite in fact as I already thought about it long ago.
I will not try to convince others, though I'll be sharing my reasoning with everyone that cares to hear it around me (fun fact considering my income/job most were supporting Fillon)
For Gaf I already shared what I thought of the candidates (and Macron mainly) in one of my first post of this topic, on Macron especially I don't think people outside France understand who he is, what he represents and how he got where he is today.
More than his program this is what's surrounding him which is worrying and how even Bayrou, someone I'm not always agreeing with but that I respected, which was very critical of Macron for the exact same reasons than me bowed to him in the end sets a dangerous precedent with how we vote and what we vote for in the first place.
Yes. In 2002. When Chirac won against father Le Pen.
Thank you very much for the spoiler bro ...
J'attends que l'élection se finisse pour regarder le match
Gurgelhals
Member
gutter_trash
Banned
too much false equivilancy going on in here, gets triesome fast.
different electoral system too
different electoral system too
There is no "a while" - if the EU falls apart it will go down in the history books as one of the biggest failures of the 21st century, where people look back to and nod their heads asking why people were so stupid back then.
ClosingADoor
Member
We voted in 2012 again. Compared to then he went up to become the second largest party. So support did increase again, just not as much as some thought.
R_thanatos
Member
True , with an alliance , both melanchon and hamon could have been in the second turn .. both candidate prides made them both lose everything
benjipwns
Banned
For all the Clinton/Trump comparisons it should be noted that her largest lead in the head-to-heads once they were the two nominees was eight points three months out.
Her largest lead in all of 2016 was eleven points.
Macron's up by thirty and he only has to hold out for less than a month.
Her largest lead in all of 2016 was eleven points.
Macron's up by thirty and he only has to hold out for less than a month.
Not convinced... Presidential is a vote for a person. If you think that means En Marche is the first party, I believe you're wrong.
Macron can home that the "etat de grace" can help him in the elections, but I really doubt he leads the first french party.
Yeah, I get what you mean, but still... like, usually the Le Pen vote at the first round was a "punishment" vote and then people got their sh*t together.
Now, not only does she scores more than her father in 2002 at the first round, but she might score twice as much as the second. Very sad for the country.
BaronLundi
Member
Totally agree. Still, no denying no one saw him making close to 20% and that's quite an accomplishment. Always hated him (even when he was PS) and that won't change given his current stance on the second round.
gutter_trash
Banned
the biggest loser of the night is the PS, governing party's candidate finishing in 5th place
No offense, but every pundit under the sun swore up and down for 2 years that there was no way Donald Trump could be president. The fact that he even is seems a hell of a lot more unlikelier than Macron blowing a 30 point lead.
I hope Hamon is preparing himself already.
Conversely, saying macron has it won already is exceedingly premature.
Cheers mate
France and Germany are brother countries. Let's never repeat past mistakes.
Ether_Snake
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Sure but who gets to 2nd round? The FN would likely get there again, mainly because by then the immigration and terrorism issues will remain. The EU will remain a scapegoat for everything.
There's nothing in sight that could turn the situation around, other than an end to the refugee crisis(es) and an economic boom. Neither is likely at all. The EU's only hope is serious reforms to make the anti-EU rhetoric less effective. At some point, populist parties will do the maths and realize that defending the EU and the status quo is more harmful to their own interest. We've already seen that this time. Macron's support is not a pro-EU statement by voters, it's an anti-FN one, and there's a big difference.
cyberheater
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My mum if French and my parents live in France. So I'm invested to a certain point.
R_thanatos
Member
#different voting system
Golden_Pigeon
Banned
I think it's the biggest winner if all it's right wing can actually go away with Macron, the PS have a chance to come back to the tenants of the left and prepare a "Front Populaire" for 2022.
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