Are you guys talking about Mélenchon or Macron? Haven't been listening.
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|OT| French Presidential Elect 2017 - La France est toujours insoumise; Le Pen loses
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Are you guys talking about Mélenchon or Macron? Haven't been listening.
There's one party advocating for leaving the Euro and they are nutjobs. The weird nostalgia for the Deutsche Mark is dying.
It is, of course, premature, but right now all odds are in his favour, and, while it's not impossible at all that it could change, I don't see anything happening in the next two weeks that could completely inverse the situation. Not even a terrorist attack.
Macron.
I'm not sure that the US system is wrong, even if I can understand it seems strange (and I dislike the results, but I'm not american, and I don't believe the media that says Hilary is white and Trump is bkack).
But as far as the french system being "normal"... well, the legislatives is a winner-takes-all, and that's what define the actual politics. We only have a larger number of "pieces", about ten times more.
Macron.
Yeah but it shows he has a ceiling for his support; he has peaked already. Moot anyway as no other party will form a coalition with him, his party is at best a pressure group but with no real aspirations of power.
In Germany AfD are a mess and they too have a ceiling for their support (somewhere between 10 and 15%). That election will be between the SPD and the CD.
This narrative some are trying to push of the far right taking over in Europe and the EU's future being under a credible threat is bollocks.
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
sure okay but if your position is "we can't possibly know anything and no evidence is real and also the worst thing possible will always happen" then there's not really any way to have a conversation
cyberheater
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The Independent says Pen won.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...ond-round-first-results-suggest-a7698191.html
Macron.
I agree with everything you just said.
I'm not going to vote for the second turn either.
BaronLundi
Member
Macron.
Macron's speech was pretty bad (slow, long, badly written, no drive) save for two things:
- the nod to the other candidates
- 'being a President of patriots against the threat of nationalists', which I liked a lot.
Mélenchon's speech was abysmal for other reasons: he doesn't call his followers to vote against LePen.
Alx
Member
Brexit => people will see what it means to exit the EU. For better or worse (probably worse IMO, which won't help the FN).
Refugee crisis => I doubt Syria will be in the same state it is today. For better or worse too, but things will have to change one way or another in the next 5 years (probably sooner than that).
Terrorism => ISIS won't be the same it is either. As a matter of fact it's more likely we will be discussing another organization that replaced it, like they mostly replaced Al Qaeda, but they're already on the way out (their recent terror attacks were DIY by loonies, and they couldn't even get the name of the latest right).
Economy status => big unknown, as it always is.
Sgt. Kabukiman
Banned
And the pundits that said Trump couldn't win are the same ones that say Le Pen is a lock right now. The Trump / Brexit / Le Pen comparisons are based on absolutely nothing. It's not impossible of course, we need to keep the electorate motivated for the next two weeks. The media just wants to sell the easy narrative that this is Trump 2.0 but it's just not.
Read again.
I'm not saying the worst possible thing will happen, I'm saying that firmly claiming that Le Pen has no chance of winning is ridiculous considering how many times we said "Leave/Trump has no chance of winning" and got proven wrong twice.
I think Macron will win but in this fucked up age of global politics, we can't be 100% about anything.
SomedayTheFire
Member
Damn you messed up
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
You read enough of the article to quote it -- what does the article suggest about how we can project the full vote based on the current vote? What does the article suggest about you claim that Le Pen won?
Okay so you're not saying we can't know anything and the worst thing will happen, you're saying we can't know anything with any degree of certainty and the worst thing is probably going to happen? Like, if your issue is that you can't rule out a victory 100%, what subjective probability would you give for a Le Pen victory and based on what evidence?
DiipuSurotu
Banned
Just got back from a long weekend with no Internet. I voted Mélenchon after hugely hesitating to vote Macron. The former didn't reach the second round but at least I have no regrets.
cyberheater
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I know not all the results are in but having the Far Right get though to the next round is quite terrifying really.
Something I thought would not have been possible a couple of years ago.
jack_package_200
Banned
Someone should ask Mélenchon about vaccines and wifi.
gutter_trash
Banned
I know, and I hate it
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Nice to see the experts who didn't even take 5 minutes to research this election are already making bold predictions.
Systolique
Member
I was talking about Macron's speech, but both were terrible, the one from Mélenchon was even worse, what a sad way to end a powerful campaign
Linkstrikesback
Member
Literally in the headline
"First results show Ms Le Pen will finish behind Mr Macron in first round".
Young millenials voted massively for Mélenchon (and Marine with 21% ...). Older millinials (like me) voted massively for Macron.
The boombers were split between Macron and Fillon
The silent generation massively voted for Fillon.
What this chart tells me is that the the power of the FN youth is vastly overstated.
It's probably for the rural areas (voting stops earlier), where LePen will be ahead of Macron, but she'll be behind in the whole country.
Still, that's not the issue. In a direct match, Macron has a huge lead.
Basically ALL loosing candidates are calling to vote for Macron (probably not Asselineau? Lol)
And actual voters will not be unanimous in this, but I don't think a single >5% candidate has supporters that won't majoritarly vote for Macron.
In a direct match, he currently has a 65/35 advantage. It's hard to overcome. Usually, FN doesn't increase much between turns, +12-13% is alread a huge boost between turns.
BaronLundi
Member
Paris must declare independance.
I'll go 25% based off of all of 2016. I get that my posts are coming off as THE SKY IS FALLING but it's more of a back-of-the-mind type of fear.
Sgt. Kabukiman
Banned
But the sky is falling, don't you understand?
Edit: lol, did not mean to reference Bronx-Man.
Young millenials voted massively for Mélenchon (and Marine with 21% ...). Older millinials (like me) voted massively for Macron.
The boombers were split between Macron and Fillon
The silent generation massively voted for Fillon.
That one last gasp for fundamentalist Catholicism
Then you haven't been following French politics at all.
whyamihere
Banned
I mean.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_election,_2002
Obviously 2017 will be different than 2002, but this is not without precedent to have the National Front in the second round.
InaSnowBoundLand
Member
JLM's cowardice in the face of fascism was expected but still disturbing. What kind of leftist sits idly as the far right rises to the seats of power? A leftist that is not worth as much as he thinks.
Hamon was the true standard bearer of the left this election. Sad he got so little. Still, it would have been better to have had a Melenchon vs Macron run off, so I am also annoyed that Hamon didn't withdraw. As much as I dislike JLM he is better than MLP. But now Hamon is doing his duty and Melenchon is not. Shame on Melenchon.
Hamon was the true standard bearer of the left this election. Sad he got so little. Still, it would have been better to have had a Melenchon vs Macron run off, so I am also annoyed that Hamon didn't withdraw. As much as I dislike JLM he is better than MLP. But now Hamon is doing his duty and Melenchon is not. Shame on Melenchon.
chromatic9
Member
To be fair, if you know about the system in the Netherlands you'll know Wilders was a fantasy.
benjipwns
Banned
Candidates making up seven and eleven point deficits within three and nine months respectively happen all the time. (Has even happened in recent French Presidential elections!)
Candidates making up thirty plus point deficits within three weeks don't. And it's not these particular candidates, Le Pen has trailed for the last three years by large amounts against every hypothetical opponent except Hollande (who she led briefly) and Sarkozy (who she got within ten points of). She has a clear cap in a system where your upper bound is everything.
whyamihere
Banned
Well, there's also Sascha in Austria, if we're looking at a post-Trump/Brexit Europe.
Macron will win the popular vote but lose the electoral college to Le Pen.
RIP in peace France.
gutter_trash
Banned
the Far-Left in a nutshell....
ready to let the world burn just to prove a point
Alright, Macron's got this. I trust you.
This too, but there was still a chance he would have gotten the largest share.
24, 2 weeks.
funkystudent
Member
Le Pen doubters mirroring the Trump naysayers so much with the "they wont get that far", "the polls are not on their side", "surely this will be the end of their campaign" and here we are, much closer then anyone would have predicted and only getting closer to her potentially winning.
I am not sure what could make me rest easy about this one after the last year of upsets. Just got to hope for the best I guess.
I am not sure what could make me rest easy about this one after the last year of upsets. Just got to hope for the best I guess.
http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/presidentielle-2017/FE.html
The only worthy site regarding the evolution of results
The only worthy site regarding the evolution of results
RPGCrazied
Member
And again I'd like to point out France doesn't have the electoral college, its the only reason Trump won. I really do think Le Pen can't win.
If I could I'd vote for Macron if I lived there.
If I could I'd vote for Macron if I lived there.
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