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[LordKano]

Makes sense to me...

On the left is their vote in the first round, follow the path to see how they plan to vote (or abstain) in the second round.

So to see how Fillon voters plan to vote in the second round, follow the blue paths.

What exactly do you not understand? Seems like a regular voting transition chart. The little "arms" going to different points show predictions of which voters will go for which option. So the fat arm going from Melenchon down to Abstention is "we predict this many voters that voted for Melenchon in this round will abstain in the second", etc.

Because of the lack of numbers or you don't understand what it means ?



Which one ?

The first one is how the voters of the 1st round are going to vote in the second round (follow the colors)

The other four charts are how voters did vote today for each big candidate based on their age, diploma, socio-profesionnal category and salary so you can see the détails of the sociological profiles of the voters

I put in a ghetto "commentary" thing in order to try to explain the voter transition graph. I used the 2 biggest branches of the Melenchon voters and the abstainers going to Macron as examples. I hope this makes it a bit more clear.

Okay, thanks. I never saw a chart like this one so I didn't know what I was supposed to look at, with all these colors overlapping themselves.

 

[AnotherDayAnotherDollar]

Hmmm I think it's worth mentioning that Mélenchon scores high for low incomes as well.
And since you're not french it should be said that : 2000-3000€ is hardly "rich", and "niveau bac" (high school education) is hardly "very educated".

I was talking about "plus de 3000€" and "niveau bac + 3 et plus", which I assume is bachelors or masters or doctorate.

 

[HaloRose]

First chart is showing who voters will likely vote for second round. So where the voters from the losing candidates go.

Bottom charts are demographic breakdowns.

Sorry guys i couldn't understand it i have dyslexia it's really hard for me to understand charts and stuff.

 

[Fisico]

Not very pretty but not very surprising (last updated at 22:49):
(source: https://twitter.com/julesbonnard/status/856251433494204417 )

Can we say that Le Drian's support paid off a lot for Macron?
Britain is so fucking yellow, it was one of the strongest region for PS usually

 

[danthefan]

This is unreadable.

It's pretty clear to me.

 

[Ac30]

I put in a ghetto "commentary" thing in order to try to explain the voter transition graph. I used the 2 biggest branches of the Melenchon voters and the abstainers going to Macron as examples. I hope this makes it a bit more clear.

It's interesting that Macron is getting so many abstention voters - I guess people really hate MLP.

 

[azyless]

I was talking about "plus de 3000€" and "niveau bac + 3 et plus", which I assume is bachelors or masters or doctorate.

Well even 3000€ is a low bar for saying they're rich imo (not that they're struggling or anything but they're not buying mansions).
Bac +3 is 3 years post high school.

 

[jellies_two]

I challenge people to read the BBC profile of Le Pen and come away with the idea she is totally racist anti-Semitic and hard right wing:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-sh/marine_le_pen

She is nationalist and she is anti EU and she is too generous to Putin and she is tougher on mass Muslim immigration or mass any immigration. All true.
But I think Trump is far FAR worse In terms of stupidity but also how far right he is. Le Pen isn't out to demolish the state and social services, or be a military adventurist, she would be soundly rejected by the GOP if she was trying to run in the USA.

 

[Mimosa97]

Can we say that Le Drian's support paid off a lot for Macron?

Yup. It really did.

The only well liked and respected member of government.

 

[Gurgelhals]

Not very pretty but not very surprising (last updated at 22:49):
(source: https://twitter.com/julesbonnard/status/856251433494204417 )

So what exactly is the problem with the northeastern part of the country?

Or, more generally, how do we read this regional distribution? Generally curious about this.

 

[Red Arremer]

It's interesting that Macron is getting so many abstention voters - I guess people really hate MLP.

The same thing happened in the Austrian election. The voter turnout in the runoff was bigger than in the first round, and when the right wing party caused the annulment of that runoff, the voter turnout in the repeat round was even greater. In other words, people realized that their votes count.

 

[Coffinhal]

So common day workers and poor people are overwhelmingly for LePen whereas rich people and very educated people are overwhelmingly for Macron. Very interesting, Tells us non-french folks a lot actually. Thanks for the data.

At least those who voted, because the non-voting phenomenom is broader in the poorest and most uneducated part of the population.

But yeah you made a good analysis : she appeals more to those who didn't benefit from globalisation and neoliberalism, those stuck at the middle of their life between the poorest parts of our societies and the upper middle-class or the middle-class that have access to good universities, city centre's openness to culture, diversity, foreign people and access to good infrastructures etc.

Okay, thanks. I never saw a chart like this one so I didn't know what I was supposed to look at, with all these colors overlapping themselves.

Sorry I'm so used to read them I sometimes forget that not everyone is into #pollporn haha

 

[AnotherDayAnotherDollar]

Well even 3000€ is a low bar for saying they're rich imo (not that they're struggling or anything but they're not buying mansions).
Bac +3 is 3 years post high school.

They both cover a very wide range because it's anything over, It can be someone just making 3000€ or someone making 50000€. Same with the education. Point still is valid though, as that demographic is overwhelmingly against LePen and for Macron, for whatever reason.

 

[Regginator]

Not very pretty but not very surprising (last updated at 22:49):
(source: https://twitter.com/julesbonnard/status/856251433494204417 )

I've always loved the people from Brittany, this kinda confirms that.

ALLEZ BREIZH

 

[azyless]

Can we say that Le Drian's support paid off a lot for Macron?
Britain is so fucking yellow, it was one of the strongest region for PS usually

Probably, but FN usually struggles here and Hamon was DOA so it's hard to say how much of an impact it really had, might just have been a logical choice for most people.

They both cover a very wide range because it's anything over, It can be someone just making 3000€ or someone making 50000€. Same with the education. Point still is valid though, as that demographic is overwhelmingly against LePen and for Macron, for whatever reason.

I guess I just don't find the criterias they chose very pertinent.

 

[Fisico]

Probably, but FN usually struggles here and Hamon was DOA so it's hard to say how much of an impact it really had, might just have been a logical choice for most people.

I know for the former, but you can't see a single pink point but a few red points here and there.
I'd say that if it wasn't for Le Drian we would have see a more equal split Red/Yellow

Fun fact is that yellow wave goes until Nantes #NantesenBretagne (can't remember if Ayrault openly supported Macron, I don't think he did though that was heavily implied)

 

[Ac30]

The same thing happened in the Austrian election. The voter turnout in the runoff was bigger than in the first round, and when the right wing party caused the annulment of that runoff, the voter turnout in the repeat round was even greater. In other words, people realized that their votes count.

That was the postal ballot controversy, right? Dumb as hell to ask for a revote over, it probably cost them dearly.

 

[patapuf]

They both cover a very wide range because it's anything over, It can be someone just making 3000€ or someone making 50000€. Same with the education. Point still is valid though, as that demographic is overwhelmingly against LePen and for Macron, for whatever reason.

It's not surprising, the people who are the least satisfied with the status quo are the most willing to vote for extreme candidates (and they also have less to loose if it doesn't pan out).

 

[Alx]

So what exactly is the problem with the northeastern part of the country?

Or, more generally, how do we read this regional distribution? Generally curious about this.

The north is the poorer part of the country. Used to live on coal mining a century ago and some industry, but most of that is dead right now. It's mostly large scale agriculture now, with some more diversified activity around major cities (Lille). One of FN strongest territory.
Western part in yellow is Brittany, also very agricultural. Also has a very strong attachment to local culture (celtic roots). Macron's popularity there could be explained by support by Le Drian, a Britton minister who is very popular in general.
South-east (French Riviera and area) is quite rich, a lot of older people on retirement there ; also has more exposition to immigration and trade from North Africa. Another traditional stronghold for FN.

 

[Mimosa97]

Just a thought. If elected, Macron (39) will become our youngest leader since our glorious emperor.

As a reminder, Napoleon became first consul when he was only 30 years old.

 

[yananana]

Small update on scores. (83% of total votes)

Emmanuel Macron (En Marche !) - 23,32%
Marine Le Pen (Front National) - 22,55%
François Fillon (Les Républicains) - 19,75%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon (La France insoumise) - 19,11%

Looking like Mélenchon can still come at the 3rd place.

Full list here.

 

[azyless]

I know for the former, but you can't see a single pink point but a few red points here and there.
I'd say that if it wasn't for Le Drian we would have see a more equal split Red/Yellow

Oh yeah I definitely think it had impact.

 

[SenkiDala]

I've always loved the people from Brittany, this kinda confirms that.

ALLEZ BREIZH

Thanks!

Sad to see Le Pen that high...

 

[Red Arremer]

That was the postal ballot controversy, right? Dumb as hell to ask for a revote over, it probably cost them dearly.

Postal ballot, but the FPÖ brought up problems with the actual booth areas as well, like counting starting early. It's good that it caused an investigation into it and ironed out the issues, but their narrative was more that the Green party used these problems and the postal ballot to rig the vote, of which there was absolutely no evidence.

I'm not sure why the supreme court decided to annul the election, but I'm glad it led to an even clearer victory for van der Bellen, while also cleaning house with the halfassed attitude of the ballot volunteers and what have you.

 

[Fisico]

The north is the poorer part of the country. Used to live on coal mining a century ago and some industry, but most of that is dead right now. It's mostly large scale agriculture now, with some more diversified activity around major cities (Lille). One of FN strongest territory.
Western part in yellow is Brittany, also very agricultural. Also has a very attachment to local culture (celtic roots). Macron's popularity there could be explained by support by Le Drian, a Britton minister who is very popular in general.
South-east (French Riviera and area) is quite rich, a lot of older people on retirement there ; also has more exposition to immigration and trade from North Africa. Another traditional stronghold for FN.

South West being so yellow might be linked to Bayrou too since that's his region.
The Aquitaine might be linked to Juppe, while he didn't support Macron he clearly wasn't pleased with the way Fillon lead his campain, he might have officially supported Fillon until the end but his electors knew what was up and probably chose to go for the candidate that fit more with a moderate right ideology.

EDIT : And the region around Lyon is probably linked to Gerard Collomb

 

[Jisgsaw]

So what exactly is the problem with the northeastern part of the country?

Or, more generally, how do we read this regional distribution? Generally curious about this.

Ne France is the US's rustbelt, so FN being strong there is to be expected.

 

[Barajas_201]

So who won? Did John Oliver jinx it again?

 

[AnotherDayAnotherDollar]

At least those who voted, because the non-voting phenomenom is broader in the poorest and most uneducated part of the population.

But yeah you made a good analysis : she appeals more to those who didn't benefit from globalisation and neoliberalism, those stuck at the middle of their life between the poorest parts of our societies and the upper middle-class or the middle-class that have access to good universities, city centre's openness to culture, diversity, foreign people and access to good infrastructures etc.

That's reasonable.

 

[yananana]

So who won? Did John Oliver jinx it again?

There's still a second round. It's going to be between Macron and Le Pen.

 

[benjipwns]

So who won? Did John Oliver jinx it again?

Vladimir Putin won via surprise write-in votes.

 

[Ac30]

So who won? Did John Oliver jinx it again?

He didn't jinx Trudeau though

 

[dosh]

So what exactly is the problem with the northeastern part of the country?

Or, more generally, how do we read this regional distribution? Generally curious about this.

North-east used to be almost entirely coal mining and industry, none of which still exists. It's mostly an agricultural region now. FN is usually quite strong there and in the south-east (where you can find an older/richer population and some of the most infamously racist cities in the country).

 

[LordZagry]

So what exactly is the problem with the northeastern part of the country?

Or, more generally, how do we read this regional distribution? Generally curious about this.

Sorry, i'll do it in french if you can read it :
Je suis du nord-est, avec des grands parents ouvriers polonais que je suspecte par ailleurs de voter FN. C'est simple : la mort de l'industrie a tué une partie de la région. C'est un coin qui vivait grâce à ses usines, ses hauts-fourneaux etc., qui non seulement offraient de l'emploi direct mais aussi "indirect" (de nombreux bisrots etc autour des usines, qui ont tous fermé aujourd'hui). Ballade toi dans les coins autour de thionville, on a l'impression de voir des villes fantômes.
Mon grand père a voté communiste une bonne partie de sa vie, quand il travaillait et qu'une solidarité ouvrière forte existait, que la classe ouvrière existait.
Aujourd'hui, le discours de la gauche est inaudible pour eux, multiculturalisme etc. Ça leur parle pas (en tant qu'immigrés, ils sont venus dans l'optique de s'intégrer coûte que coûte, ils ont sincèrement l'impression d'un deux poids deux mesures entre eux et l'attention dont la gauche fait preuve vis à vis des populations maghrébines, de l'islam (y a évidement beaucoup de fantasmes)).

Voilà, c'était la version très condensée, si ça peut t'aider...
Si le sujet t'intéresse je te conseille de lire l'excellent livre (vraiment) Retour sur la condition ouvrière de S. Beaud et M. Pialoux, deux sociologues qui ont vu avant les autres la montée du FN chez les ouvriers.
Sorry for the french.

 

[chromatic9]

So who won? Did John Oliver jinx it again?

 

[Coffinhal]

Small update on scores. (83% of total votes)

Emmanuel Macron (En Marche !) - 23,32%
Marine Le Pen (Front National) - 22,55%
François Fillon (Les Républicains) - 19,75%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon (La France insoumise) - 19,11%

Looking like Mélenchon can still come at the 3rd place.

Full list here.

Not likely but that would be great.

Even if he chose not to say what he would do and what his voters should do, I believe that he should have prepared a bit more his speech tonight. He did the best campaign alongside Macron, especially in the last month, and should have emphasized more the fact that there was an alternative at 19% that nobody expected at this level two months ago. The left has now a new radical platform (also supported by Hamon and his voters) that we have to fight for in the coming months and years (by taking up the streets and then the elections )

On the topic of his choice for the 2nd round, I personnaly think that he should have said that he would always vote against Le Pen, but that his movement should decide by themselves with a vote (but that's difficult to understand too). Defeat is always difficult to manage.

 

[Sir Abacus]

Congrats France. Let's see a repeat of 2002 where you smashed the fash.

 

[Kilrogg]

Sorry, i'll do it in french if you can read it :
Je suis du nord-est, avec des grands parents ouvriers polonais que je suspecte par ailleurs de voter FN. C'est simple : la mort de l'industrie a tué une partie de la région. C'est un coin qui vivait grâce à ses usines, ses hauts-fourneaux etc., qui non seulement offraient de l'emploi direct mais aussi "indirect" (de nombreux bisrots etc autour des usines, qui ont tous fermé aujourd'hui). Ballade toi dans les coins autour de thionville, on a l'impression de voir des villes fantômes.
Mon grand père a voté communiste une bonne partie de sa vie, quand il travaillait et qu'une solidarité ouvrière forte existait, que la classe ouvrière existait.
Aujourd'hui, le discours de la gauche est inaudible pour eux, multiculturalisme etc. Ça leur parle pas (en tant qu'immigrés, ils sont venus dans l'optique de s'intégrer coûte que coûte, ils ont sincèrement l'impression d'un deux poids deux mesures entre eux et l'attention dont la gauche fait preuve vis à vis des populations maghrébines, de l'islam (y a évidement beaucoup de fantasmes)).

Voilà, c'était la version très condensée, si ça peut t'aider...
Si le sujet t'intéresse je te conseille de lire l'excellent livre (vraiment) Retour sur la condition ouvrière de S. Beaud et M. Pialoux, deux sociologues qui ont vu avant les autres la montée du FN chez les ouvriers.
Sorry for the french.

Fellow Mosellan?
Yeah, you pretty much hit the nail on the head.
That's also why you'll see a lot of people from the North East go work in Luxembourg. More jobs there, with better salaries to boot.

 

[Fisico]

Sorry, i'll do it in french if you can read it :
Je suis du nord-est, avec des grands parents ouvriers polonais que je suspecte par ailleurs de voter FN. C'est simple : la mort de l'industrie a tué une partie de la région. C'est un coin qui vivait grâce à ses usines, ses hauts-fourneaux etc., qui non seulement offraient de l'emploi direct mais aussi "indirect" (de nombreux bisrots etc autour des usines, qui ont tous fermé aujourd'hui). Ballade toi dans les coins autour de thionville, on a l'impression de voir des villes fantômes.
Mon grand père a voté communiste une bonne partie de sa vie, quand il travaillait et qu'une solidarité ouvrière forte existait, que la classe ouvrière existait.
Aujourd'hui, le discours de la gauche est inaudible pour eux, multiculturalisme etc. Ça leur parle pas (en tant qu'immigrés, ils sont venus dans l'optique de s'intégrer coûte que coûte, ils ont sincèrement l'impression d'un deux poids deux mesures entre eux et l'attention dont la gauche fait preuve vis à vis des populations maghrébines, de l'islam (y a évidement beaucoup de fantasmes)).

Voilà, c'était la version très condensée, si ça peut t'aider...
Si le sujet t'intéresse je te conseille de lire l'excellent livre (vraiment) Retour sur la condition ouvrière de S. Beaud et M. Pialoux, deux sociologues qui ont vu avant les autres la montée du FN chez les ouvriers.
Sorry for the french.

What's funny is that when you look at the map above, Thionville Metz and every city near the two put Macron at first place.
For the more rural area a bit further it's clearly Le Pen though.

Quick Google Search told me that Metz' mayor was behind Hamon, so vote utile got him there, though for Thionville it was a LR mayor so I don't know, maybe Macron is more Luxembourg friendly than Fillon?

With 86% of the votes

M. Emmanuel MACRON 23,40
Mme Marine LE PEN 22,32
M. François FILLON 19,77
M. Jean-Luc MÉLENCHON 19,28
M. Benoît HAMON 6,15
M. Nicolas DUPONT-AIGNAN 4,92

It's getting closer for 3rd place.

 

[Kilrogg]

maybe Macron is more Luxembourg friendly than Fillon?

I mean, the guy is a former banker, pro-EU with a good grasp of English. Of course he's Luxembourg-friendly .

 

[Eolz]

Small update on scores. (83% of total votes)

Emmanuel Macron (En Marche !) - 23,32%
Marine Le Pen (Front National) - 22,55%
François Fillon (Les Républicains) - 19,75%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon (La France insoumise) - 19,11%

Looking like Mélenchon can still come at the 3rd place.

Full list here.

Not when it's at 85% total votes, no.

Congrats France. Let's see a repeat of 2002 where you smashed the fash.

I'm not worried about beating Le Pen. I'm more worried about by how much she'll be beaten.
She really changed the image and communication of her party, so we won't see a 80% win again.

 

[Quixzlizx]

OH MY GAWD, WHAT IS HAPPENING????

 

[yananana]

(source)

 

[yananana]

OH MY GAWD, WHAT IS HAPPENING????

holy shit lol

 

[Fisico]

Not when it's at 85% total votes, no.

And yet it went from a 0.64 difference at 83% of the votes to 0.44 with 86% of the votes.

 

[benjipwns]

 

[KillerStar]

http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/presidentielle-2017/FE.html

M. François FILLON 6 495 795
M. Jean-Luc MÉLENCHON 6 350 033

Waouh !

 

[turmoil]

Wow I have never seen an election in a presidential country where 4 candidates got ~20%

 

[LordZagry]

Quick Google Search told me that Metz' mayor was behind Hamon, so vote utile got him there, though for Thionville it was a LR mayor so I don't know, maybe Macron is more Luxembourg friendly than Fillon?

Metz is a rich town, and big towns in general are always less fn than the average. All the -ange town (Gondrange, Hayange, Hagondange etc., ex-industrial towns, the "Vallée de la Fensch" as we call it)clearly put LePen first (and Mélenchon second sometimes), and the Moselle in general :
http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/presidentielle-2017/044/057/index.html

 

[Ac30]

To be fair we should shop Obama on there since that ((globalist)) cuck picked favorites and rigged it


I've got to stop reading r/t_D

 

[benjipwns]

Wow I have never seen an election in a presidential country where 4 candidates got ~20%

2002's first round was better, nobody topped 20%:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_election,_2002#Results