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PlayStation will release 6 Live Service games by March 2025. How many will be successful?

How many of PlayStations six Live Service games (releasing by March 2025) will be successful?

  • 0 - 1. The market is saturated and it's a crapshoot making these games.

  • 2 - 4. I'm like Switzerland.

  • 5 - 6. We've only just begun. PlayStation knows what it's doing here.


Results are only viewable after voting.
What people need to remember that success is relative. GT7 and MLB's successes have been great but they've been understated and bring in steady income.
I think they'll all be successful but in their own way. If people are expecting a Fortnite out of these then they have their head in the clouds - Sony doesn't expect that.

TLOU Online for example will be a platform. That investment is long term and multiplatform.
 

Duchess

Member
Ideally enough not lose Sony money, but not enough to make them believe that continuing down this path is a good idea.

(if that makes sense)
 

Bernardougf

Member
really dont care, but if the first party SP output suffers from this shift in priorities, as it looks is already suffering, by 26 Im out.. I was 100% sure that I would buy the PRO next year, not matter the cost, but now ? not so much ..xbox one generation killed xbox for me ... and for the looks of it ps5 will be my last ps console generation if they dont prove me wrong until the ps6 launchs .... right now Im considering to go back to PC for the first time since the ps3. Great job sony 😉.
 

Elios83

Member
It depends on what is intended as successful.
If it means creating the new Fortnite well...that's really unlikely unless they're really lucky with some gameplay concept that becomes viral.
If it means to create great multiplayer games with their dedicated communities and new contents provided through a gaas model then yes, I don't see many issues. They already have successful examples like GT7 and MLB.
 
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I imagine Helldivers 2 will be the only successful one and it actually looks alright. Foamstars is a shameless free to play rip off of a better game and I've no idea what the others are... Nor do I care to be honest.
 

Mibu no ookami

Demoted Member® Pro™
So difficult to define success when lots of different games have different revenue streams.

MLB The Show is almost certainly successful and I do believe Sony considers it a live-service game, but at the same time, they don't seem to officially consider GT7 a live-service game.

So how are we defining what is actually live-service and what is actually successful?
 
Depends on their names. Something new? Most likely will fail. Something with a familiar name or based on a franchise? Will prolly do decent for a while.
 

mrmustard

Banned
Depends on their names. Something new? Most likely will fail. Something with a familiar name or based on a franchise? Will prolly do decent for a while.
I think Marathon could do well as a new ip, because you already have the Destiny community who most likely will try it.
 

Shtof

Member
I think the strategy here is to create a basket full of eggs, and nourish the egg(s) that attract more attention.

Creating something that is just 10% as successful as Fortnite would be a huge win for any company.
 

Holammer

Member
If only one of the games in development is a CS/LOL/Fortnite SSR level hit, it'll pay for dozens of projects.
With all the titles in the pipeline? I think they have have a solid chance for two good hits. Sony has a good brand and a captive audience on the consoles.

If they are smart they makes the games solo friendly to a point, like Digital Extremes did with Warframe. So anti-social curmudgeons like myself can enjoy it.
 

Mownoc

Member
It's 6 live service games by the end of march 2026 not march 2025. They certainly meant by the end of FY25 which is what they previously said for the 12 back when that was originally announced. They're not releasing 6 live service games in a 15 month period.

It's hard to answer when I don't know exactly what Sony class as live-service. Is Helldivers 2 one of these?

I think LBP and Modnation Racers would both be "live service" games if they got new entries. Warhawk? Wipeout? Everybody's Golf?

Concord, Marathon and Fairgame$ are presumably 3 of these 6 titles.
 
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Kenneth Haight

Gold Member
They’d be stupid to at least not try to chase this market so you can’t blame them. First party output in 2023 has been meagre, I’m expecting an improvement in 2024, if not for such a strong third party year there would be a lot more questions being asked.
 
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Magic Carpet

Gold Member
I've done my time playing and paying these games with my son and Fortnite, He's older and over it, I'm way over it.
So I'm going to be Switzerland,
I'm not going to be partaking any any of it, none, zero, zip.
I'm not going to watch Youtube video's of any of it.
I'm not going to read threads for any of it.

Sam the Eagle - You are all Weirdos
 
Sony's Plan:

game show japanese GIF
 
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Phase

Member
I'm betting a few will be delayed passed that date, and a couple will be middling successes and then forgotten about for other games. Marathon may be the only one that sticks for some time.
 
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Roxkis_ii

Member
I trust Sony to know what good games are. If its fun to play and the montazion isn't egregious, then I'll treat it like a single player game like Gt7.

I expect maybe two or three games to make it, if the games are diverse.
(not close down after 6 months is my metric).

Sony seems pretty good at reading their audience and making corrections. They were able to see that gamers want higher frame rates this console gen and every game after HFW has had a proformance mode at lauch. So if a gaas releases, and doesn't do well, I expect them to make the nessarcy changes to get other games on track.
 
My guess for a successful live service would be either Factions if that ever actually releases or the Horizon MMO.

Everything else will die quickly.

What ever Concord is could be decent, at least it looks cool from the trailer but it'll probably be just alright more than anything.
 

Perrott

Member
It's time.

1*WpFV9sy_zZ8zwP6SLUhnHg.gif


Last week, Hiroki Totoki proclaimed that PlayStation is set to release 6 Live Service games by March 2025. There's been a lot of talk on NeoGAF about this Live Service strategy so I thought it would be interesting to create an Eat Crow mechanism. I've set a reminder for March 1st, 2025 in my phone. This thread will be bumped on said date so a percentage of GAFers can...

eating-crow.jpg


Question: How many of the six do you think will prove successful?

Important: Answers are public. You can not change your vote. Take your time and choose wisely.
The new goal is to have six live service games out by March 2026, not 2025. Sony counts they fiscal years differently than other companies.

Regarding success, well, I think Marathon will be the true hit; Fairgame$ will be successful but not a billion dollar property; Helldivers II and Horizon Online will do well enough to not be shutdown, and Concord will die within a year.
 

Solidus_T

Banned
Helldivers 2 looks like a lot of fun, but the market is already saturated with these GaaS games.
If Factions and that Horizon RPG are included, potentially those could be successful too, but these days GaaS might not be sustainable, even if the game is good.
 

Perrott

Member
Someone tell me this is not true.

For other companies, FY25 means what it should mean: the financial year ending on March 2025; but for Sony, that's the financial year starting on April 2025 and going through March 2026.
 
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Tajaz2426

Psychology PhD from Wikipedia University
Anything with microtransactions is automatically a no is our house now. So in the end, I hope they all fail.
 

Diddy X

Member
You can never know with Live service games, pure fortune, Fortnite, among us, pubg, they never imagined they would be so succesful, it just happened.
 

Men_in_Boxes

Snake Oil Salesman

For other companies, FY25 means what it should mean: the financial year ending on March 2025; but for Sony, that's the financial year starting on April 2025 and going through March 2026.

Currently going through the "trust but verify" grieving process. I think you're likely right, but I'm seeing different outlets say the FY ends March 2025. I want you to be wrong so very very badly.
 

dottme

Member
I’m pretty sure they are just looking for 1 to succeed and then milking the cows as much as possible.
 

BootsLoader

Banned
I don’t think they will have any luck with their GAAS games. Sony fans are not used to that kind of games and also there are many GAAS games already.
 

Jigsaah

Gold Member
Ich denke, dass die Playstation 2-4 Spiele schaffen könnte, um Feuer zu fangen.

(Most Swiss folks speak German)
 

BootsLoader

Banned
A big portion of their audience is Fortnite, CoD, Apex Legends, Destiny, etc.

So their casual audience certainly is used to GaaS type games
Don’t know, maybe the fanbase I talk about is too hardcore. Also, as you said yourself, most of these games are third party and there are a lot already. But who knows.
 

Tajaz2426

Psychology PhD from Wikipedia University
So you want PlayStation to only have high-risk IP and dwindling profit. Nice
I don’t care what any company makes or loses. I’m not being thrown every micro-transaction a company hires a psychologist to find at myself or my kids.

If you wish to do that, have fun. When there is a single player game that I paid full price for and no micro-transactions, I will buy it for myself or my children. I’m not having my kids groomed by these people to give up their money as adults for digital goods that have no value.
 

BennyBlanco

aka IMurRIVAL69
Fairgame$ looks like a flaming bag of dogshit and that’s what they chose to show first. Doesn’t exactly fill me with confidence.
 
I don’t care what any company makes or loses. I’m not being thrown every micro-transaction a company hires a psychologist to find at myself or my kids.

If you wish to do that, have fun. When there is a single player game that I paid full price for and no micro-transactions, I will buy it for myself or my children. I’m not having my kids groomed by these people to give up their money as adults for digital goods that have no value.

You've failed to understand the broader point. Those single player games we love that push the boundaries of production values? Yeah,
... they are going to increasingly depend on Sony's GAAS games doing well.

I'm not into GAAS games either, but I'd like to keep playing the high standard of Single Player games I've come to love... But they are costing hundreds of million to develop each now.
 
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