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[Represent.]

Zero. Its why Jim was fired, terrible and stupid strategy.

 

[Codeblew]

None of them are SOCOM or Warhawk so my estimate is 0% chance of success

Not a huge fan of live service games but I would be down for Warhawk. I miss that game.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

Ich denke, dass die Playstation 2-4 Spiele schaffen könnte, um Feuer zu fangen.

(Most Swiss folks speak German)

I just went to Switzerland. You guys are di**s. I jest, but seriously the people are much different over there.

 

[Jigsaah]

I just went to Switzerland. You guys are di**s. I jest, but seriously the people are much different over there.

Oh don't get me wrrong. I'm not Swiss. I'm from the US. I just google translated my post to German because of the poll haha.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

Oh don't get me wrrong. I'm not Swiss. I'm from the US. I just google translated my post to German because of the poll haha.

No. You are already Swiss in my mind. I can't go back.

Jigsaah:

 

[Quantum253]

I guess about as well as MAG did. That game had about 4 years to it then died.
I suppose if they can replicate Fortnite, PUBG, etc. then maybe, but the arena/Battle Royal game genre is about done and players are ready for something new.
If Sony can take a popular IP and make an enticing live element to it then maybe. However, games are almost all based on Microtransactions/Streamers/Mobile elements in this age so it's really what will stream and get people to buy microtransactions that will be pushed through.

 

[SteadyEvo]

If they include Killzone or Socom then maybe.

 

[Rocco Schiavone]

They suck regarding mp games. Means 0.

 

[ShadyAcshuns]

None.

Live Service games are a mistake

This. Oh, and my vote for zero is public, oh noes!

 

[Alexios]

0-1, the market isn't necessarily saturated, they just don't have what it takes to make a damn good one that will steal enough of an audience from others.

 

[mckmas8808]

None.

Live Service games are a mistake

None of them are SOCOM or Warhawk so my estimate is 0% chance of success

They suck regarding mp games. Means 0.

This. Oh, and my vote for zero is public, oh noes!

Zero is the safe bet.

Looks like most people in this thread never thought Helldivers 2 would or could be successful. Glad to see most of them were wrong.

It'll be a mixture of Steamcharts and TrueTrophies.com after ~3 months post launch. That's when most multiplayer games settle in and find their groove in terms of player base.

For example, when Helldivers 2 comes out and has a bigger audience than Deep Rock Galactic, it'll be hard to argue it's not a success.

Anybody claiming the market for GaaS games is saturated is fundamentally ignorant of how these games work.

By their very definition, unlike traditional games that need to canvass the broadest possible audience with with widest possible appeal, Live Service games are a business model that make what is essentially the "cult classic" a profitable and very viable model.

Live Service games merely need to build a relatively small but devoted following, but one that is willing to continually spend. Do that and with only a couple of million monthly active users, you will make considerable bank.

Do that very well, and behold you now have one of the most profitable gaming properties in the industry. Everybody only looks at the biggest games, e.g. the Fortnites and GTA Onlines, and thinks "there's not enough room in the market for anymore of them", but whilst that may or may not be true, there's plenty room for smaller GaaS successes like Warframe, Destiny 2 (until recently), Payday, etc etc etc

I personally think Helldivers 2 could slap hard. And I do have faith in Marathon and Concord. With only three of these becoming reasonably successful, that would be enough to finance virtually all of Sony's AAA SP games from their other studios.

I think what Sony needs to do, however, is go all in on their multiplatform approach with their Live Service games. They need to build games like Fortnite that also run on iPads and Android phones. If they can do that, they'll have their cash cow to milk and finance literally all of PS's future creative endeavors.

Ahh. Well, that's not a metric I really monitor so I can't really lend an informed opinion. Just going by what I noted originally, I'll stick with 5 out of 6 finding "success"

But some did think Sony could be successful in Live Service games.

 

[Rocco Schiavone]

mckmas8808
Even a blind chicken can find a grain. The grain was Helldivers 2.

They still suck in the mp department.

 

[FunkMiller]

So, 0-1 was exactly the right thing to vote, because 1 game has done well.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

So, 0-1 was exactly the right thing to vote, because 1 game has done well.

Another way to put it would be...

The first of 6 became a bigger hit than anyone predicted so 0 - 1 is looking like a bad choice.

 

[Angry_Megalodon]

I think the poll would be better with the project names so we vote for the biggest flops.

The only one I see with some potential is, as someone mentioned, a Monster Hunter-like Horizon.

The others will EOS within a year, followed by studio closure.

 

[diffusionx]

Define succes. If it is Fortnite/Apex/Destiny tier, probably zero. Not even HD2 is there. But at least with HD2 people paid for it, so they have skin in the game immediately, instead of junk like The Finals where people just download it, play it for a few weeks, then the publisher has to admit it's failing after they leave.

I think also Sony canceling projects shows that they have some standards in place here, instead of just handing devs blank checks and telling them to call once in a while. Like another platform holder that tried to bolster their in-house development.

 

[mckmas8808]

I think the poll would be better with the project names so we vote for the biggest flops.

The only one I see with some potential is, as someone mentioned, a Monster Hunter-like Horizon.

The others will EOS within a year, followed by studio closure.

You don't think even Helldivers 2 will be good in 9 months?

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

Define succes. If it is Fortnite/Apex/Destiny tier, probably zero.

Healthy RoI. It's harder for the public to gage what's successful or not, but we can get a vague understanding using Steamcharts + whatever PlayStation announces numbers wise.

 

[Angry_Megalodon]

You don't think even Helldivers 2 will be good in 9 months?

I was counting first party studios. Helldivers is by far the safest success for Sony right now. However, it needs (urgently) Sony's funding to keep it alive. I hope they support these guys.

 

[mckmas8808]

I was counting first party studios. Helldivers is by far the safest success for Sony right now. However, it needs (urgently) Sony's funding to keep it alive. I hope they support these guys.

Arrowhead said Sony doubled the budget from Helldivers 1 to Helldivers 2 once they saw the game coming together. At this point I'm going to believe Sony's funding isn't going to be an issue for this franchise.

 

[Guilty_AI]

It was 10 games in 2021, it became 6, and now its only 1 or 2 in this time-frame. Helldivers 2 sold well but it's success isn't any different from one of their major SP games selling a lot at launch, certainly doesn't look like it'll become an eternal money-printing which supposedly should be the monetary advantage of GAAS over traditional models. And we ain't even sure if we'll really see Concord this year.

 

[rhodesianshepard]

If Sony has another big hit like HD2, whether it's Concord, Fairgames, Horizon MMO, then I believe Sony would consider their GAAS push a success. It only takes 1-2 big live service games to generate billions in revenue, which would easily cover the costs of their failed GAAS games

 

[mrcroket]

Helldivers 2 sold well but it's success isn't any different from one of their major SP games selling a lot at launch

Well.....
https://metro.co.uk/2024/05/01/hell...-months-20757642/?ico=zone-widget_home_gaming

 

[rhodesianshepard]

It was 10 games in 2021, it became 6, and now its only 1 or 2 in this time-frame. Helldivers 2 sold well but it's success isn't any different from one of their major SP games selling a lot at launch, certainly doesn't look like it'll become an eternal money-printing which supposedly should be the monetary advantage of GAAS over traditional models. And we ain't even sure if we'll really see Concord this year.

The skies the limit with HD2. The foundation of that game is so damn good. You still got 80,00 daily peaks almost 4 months into Launch. It will be highly profitable for years to come if fed good content. We still know the developers are sitting on an entire new faction and vehicles too

 

[Danjin44]

 

[bender]

Looks like most people in this thread never thought Helldivers 2 would or could be successful. Glad to see most of them were wrong.

It has nothing to do with Helldivers and everything to do with success rate of GAAS titles. Take any six titles that have yet to be released and the safe bet on success rate is still zero.

 

[Cyberpunkd]

Zero. Its why Jim was fired, terrible and stupid strategy.

This post aged well.

 

[Heaven Angel]

 

[FoxMcChief]

This post aged well.

It’s only been out 3 months. I bounced off. I might go back one day, after a hefty update or something.

 

[TheThreadsThatBindUs]

mckmas8808
Even a blind chicken can find a grain. The grain was Helldivers 2.

They still suck in the mp department.

A blind chicken will get hit by a 15-wheeler and spread across the highway like red Nutella.

 

[LordOfChaos]

My >1% chance hope is that Marathon goes like Titanfall 1 - Titanfall 2 where the first one barely had a story and no real campaign other than doing certain multiplayer missions in order, but the second one had a great sp campaign. Because they're sitting on the IP that is the father of fucking Halo right there.

 

[vaibhavpisal]

Gaf - 0

Men_in_Boxes - 1

 

[poppabk]

A blind chicken will get hit by a 15-wheeler and spread across the highway like red Nutella.

Leave Microsoft alone.

 

[TheThreadsThatBindUs]

Leave Microsoft alone.

 

[Guilty_AI]

Well.....
https://metro.co.uk/2024/05/01/helldivers-2-one-best-selling-sony-anygames-ever-just-two-months-20757642/?ico=zone-widget_home_gaming

7th place with majority of money coming from upfront sales, aka like many of their modern SP games. Also worth noting the game is $40, so it being among best selling isn't the same as having a Spider Man or Dragons Dogma 2 there.

The skies the limit with HD2. The foundation of that game is so damn good. You still got 80,00 daily peaks almost 4 months into Launch. It will be highly profitable for years to come if fed good content. We still know the developers are sitting on an entire new faction and vehicles too

It's a GAAS, supposedly. It can't just have players playing, it need players paying too. Will you keep paying for whatever capes or battlepass they're selling?

 

[rhodesianshepard]

7th place with majority of money coming from upfront sales, aka like many of their modern SP games. Also worth noting the game is $40, so it being among best selling isn't the same as having a Spider Man or Dragons Dogma 2 there.


It's a GAAS, supposedly. It can't just have players playing, it need players paying too. Will you keep paying for whatever capes or battlepass they're selling?

It's a 3rd person shooter, which is built for cosmetics. There are already monthly battlepasses(10$) and different types of cosmetics you can purchase seperately. But If you grind roughly 15-25hrs players can gain in-game currency to purchase Battlepasses for free. Arrowhead hasn't emphasized monetization because they said they want to "earn it". There is no reason this won't be a GAAS cash cow for years to come. As Arrowhead has stated, they want to make it the best GAAS on the market

 

[Laptop1991]

That's a waste of 5 games for me, i doubt even 1 will be a massive success, it's as if Sony are just throwing 6 out there hoping 1 sticks, when they could make 5 good SP games, but I don't like live service games anyway, so i am biased

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

Gaf - 0

Men_in_Boxes - 1

Concord will wipe out 80 percent of the intelligentsia on GAF. This poll will be a massacre that historians say was more horrific than Custards Last Stand.

 

[Guilty_AI]

There is no reason this won't be a GAAS cash cow for years to come.

You just stated the reason yourself:

There are already monthly battlepasses(10$) and different types of cosmetics you can purchase seperately. But If you grind roughly 15-25hrs players can gain in-game currency to purchase Battlepasses for free. Arrowhead hasn't emphasized monetization because they said they want to "earn it".

Yes, it may still generate revenue, but it won't be a cashcow. From Sony's annual revenue perspective, a small side-project at best.

 

[Three]

7th place with majority of money coming from upfront sales, aka like many of their modern SP games. Also worth noting the game is $40, so it being among best selling isn't the same as having a Spider Man or Dragons Dogma 2 there.

Grossing so try again.

 

[Guilty_AI]

Grossing so try again.

article also speaks of sales charts so ball is on your park

 

[Three]

article also speaks of sales charts so ball is on your park

Not sure what you're not understanding regarding those charts. They're all dollar sales not units.

 

[Guilty_AI]

Not sure what you're not understanding regarding those charts. They're all dollar sales not units.

Oh, thought it also showed sales based on copies, i stand corrected on that point.

But my original argument still stands so...

 

[mckmas8808]

But........We are already at one game being a success LOL!!!

 

[nial]

inb4 Concord is a massive (and growing) success and Men_in_Boxes BTFOs the entirety of NeoGAF.

 

[CityHunter1981]

It’s probably not a good thing that Helldivers 2 is so successful, Sony gets greedy and think they can just multiply this success. Let’s hope the other games bomb…

 

[scarlet0pimp]

Hell divers has kind of died recently. It's made allot of money already but I don't think it will continue to. Unless they can recapture the magic they had at launch. Maybe when the new faction comes out? I personally stopped playing about a month ago. I did buy the battle pass though before that and some extra currency but the game became stale.

 

[Zathalus]

In terms of decent success stories like Helldivers 2? I'd wager two or three. In terms of juggernauts likes Fortnite? Probably zero.

 

[Xyphie]

Hell divers has kind of died recently. It's made allot of money already but I don't think it will continue to. Unless they can recapture the magic they had at launch. Maybe when the new faction comes out? I personally stopped playing about a month ago. I did buy the battle pass though before that and some extra currency but the game became stale.

A decline over time was bound to happen with HD2 because the game is fairly mindless gameplay-wise and it's really hard to grow the playerbase of a game over time without a PvP component unless there's some other "sandbox" component to the gameplay like building stuff (Roblox, Minecraft etc) which is infinitely scalable for the player. Even if they release expansions with their version of space elves or whatever the playerbase will burn through that content faster than they can develop it unless they add a longer-term hook to the game.

Fairgames is going to have a similar cycle if it's just Sony's version of Payday.