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PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread

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S

Sirpopopop

Member
AlteredBeast said:
Bush got far worse treatment, Obama is getting off relatively easy compared to Bush.

Obviously the president can't do much to control prices, especially with Obama already outdrilling every president ever...
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"DRILL ALASKA111111!!!!!1111111111111!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1111111111"

"SCREW THOSE BABY SNOW HYENA RAPTORS!!!!111111111111111111111!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11111111111"
 
G

gutter_trash

Banned
GhaleonEB said:
People think the president can control gas prices? Dunno.

I'd like to see those polled asked whether they think the president can.
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it doesnt matter if the President can do anything or not, people peg negative events that are effecting them now towards to incumbancy

Gas prices went sky high on Bush's last year in office, not much of a difference

RustyNails said:
Obama should approve keystone xl methinks
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Keystone proposal must be re-submitted with a different route to take into account the zones of contention that forced its downfall in the last proposal.
will take time
 
S

speculawyer

Member
A27 Tawpgun said:
This shit writes itself. I feel like Colbert and Stewart have the easiest job in the world.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2...obama_s_religion.html?tid=sm_tw_button_chunky
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Wow.
6829787662_e80b98794c.jpg


Is that the population in general? Because 38% of Mississippi is black. So that means almost every white person believes in the Muslim thing (or a lot of black people do).

BTW, didja see the footage Bill Maher broadcast on Friday from Mississippi? I mean I don't want to perpetuate stereotypes . . . but holy crap.
 
T

ToxicAdam

Member
That poll was for Republicans only.


If I were a new polling outfit, I would just poll the Deep South exclusively. About everything. It's endlessly fascinating and sure to garner headlines everytime you release a poll.
 
T

ToxicAdam

Member
It's pretty similar to the SC poll that came out. You have to remember that these polls are usually 'likely voters' which are going to skew very, very old.
 
T

thatbox

Banned
Also from that poll:

-Alabama's pretty much on board with interracial marriage, with 67% of voters thinking it should be legal to 21% who think it should not be. There's still some skepticism in Mississippi though- only 54% of voters think it should be legal, while 29% believe it should be illegal. Newt cleans up with the 'interracial marriage should be illegal' crowd in both states. He's up 40-27 on Romney with them in Mississippi and 37-28 with them in Alabama.
Click to expand...

Edit: Beaten.
 
R

RDreamer

Member
ToxicAdam said:
It's pretty similar to the SC poll that came out. You have to remember that these polls are usually 'likely voters' which are going to skew very, very old.
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That does make it better, but at the same time:

In Alabama for those 18 to 45 19% believe it should be illegal. For those 45 to 65 17% believe it should be illegal. For those older than 65 29% believe it should be illegal.

The fact that 19% between 18 and 45 still believe it should be illegal (among republican voters, I know) is pretty astounding to me.
 
J

Jackson50

Member
ToxicAdam said:
That poll was for Republicans only.


If I were a new polling outfit, I would just poll the Deep South exclusively. About everything. It's endlessly fascinating and sure to garner headlines everytime you release a poll.
Click to expand...
It truly is peculiar. Seemingly every Americanist paper includes a Southern dummy to control for it. Otherwise, it totally fucks the model.
 
T

ToxicAdam

Member
Actually the revisions serve as a pretty good indicator of where the next numbers will be.

Back when the bottom was falling out of the labor market in '09, the job losses were continually revised lower.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
AlteredBeast said:
They appear to be fairly poor estimators. They have undershot it every month.
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The initial estimates seem to be conservative, as the initial report seems to often miss changes in direction. When the economy was shedding jobs, the reports were revised for the worse each month. Now that we're seeing job gains, the revisions are mostly upward. If we start seeing downward revisions, it's probably a bad sign of the direction.

The revision to January was particularly strong. 284k is a good month by almost any measure.

Edit: beaten to this point by TA. Gotta remember to refresh the page first.
 
S

speculawyer

Member
FLEABttn said:
I don't think it's a dog whistle when nobody knows it's a dog whistle.
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That is why it is a dog whistle. Most people have never heard of it. But older people who watched the news back in the 70's & 80's heard lots of news stories arising from South Africa since they were in the news back then due to Apartheid, ANC, and divestment.
 
F

FLEABttn

Banned
I'm gonna ask around, see what kind of response I get to that word. I've not heard it. Possibly I'm way off on that one.

Barry Soweto turns up some hits on Google dating as far back as 2008, but it's use seems limited. Again, possibly I'm wrong but that connection seems so...esoteric. Like how many people who would be swayed by dog whistle politics would actually make that connection?

It just feels like a reach to me, as if we were to say that Newt's "moon base" is really code for a white nation because the moon is white and a base a support structure on which things are build on/around.
 
C

Cloudy

Banned
Republican hypocrisy is amazing. I remember when they were attacking Obama for sending less troops than requested to Afghanistan. But today, they are saying it's Obama's Vietnam for sending troops there at all. Unreal
 
S

Slurpy2k20

Member
Can someone compile a list of what Newt says he will do 'the next day' as President? There's at least few major things now, like repealing everything Obama has done, fixing the economy, creating ten million jobs and making gas free.

And those polls are despicable. Because by deduction, those same percentages of people who are not sure if Obama is Muslim (ie. 80%) also clearly despise Muslims and are bigots in this regard.
 
G

Ghost_Protocol

Member
Cloudy said:
Republican hypocrisy is amazing. I remember when they were attacking Obama for sending less troops than requested to Afghanistan. But today, they are saying it's Obama's Vietnam for sending troops there at all. Unreal
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Newt Gingrich did the same thing with Libya. When We weren't over there, he blasted Obama for doing nothing. The second we got over there he changed his mind.
 
R

RDreamer

Member
ErasureAcer said:
Great news. Strange this wasn't mentioned in Minnesota news circles as the Republicans here are pushing the same shit.
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Perhaps your state constitution is written differently and the phrase that allows this to be blocked isn't in yours? Here's the exact reasoning:

The group argued the state constitution allows the Legislature to exclude felons and mentally incompetent people from voting, but not other classes of people. Niess agreed with the group that the new law creates a new category of people who cannot vote - those without ID - and thus violates the state constitution.
Click to expand...
 
H

HyperionX

Member
Averon said:
cartoon_soldier said:
CBS Confirms Obama's approval upside down again (pretty bad actually)

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/03/12/obama_approval_sinks_to_new_low.html

Leads Romney though, but within margin of error.
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Gas prices. It's the only thing I can see that explains this.
Click to expand...

I've said this already:

HyperionX said:
Probably just Super Tuesday getting Republican voter enthusiasm up. Until the last 1-2 weeks Obama was beating the opposition by large margins.
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A

Al-ibn Kermit

Junior Member
It looks like Romney has a very good chance of taking both Mississippi and Alabama tomorrow. How is that possible when he's the least conservative and the least pandering towards evangelicals? On the plus side, this may finally kick gingrich out if the race and we'll see how long Santorum can drag this out.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Averon said:
Gas prices. It's the only thing I can see that explains this.
Click to expand...

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...val-ratings-gas-prices-and-statistical-noise/

As of Monday, Mr. Obama’s approval rating in the Real Clear Politics average of polls is 48 percent, and his disapproval rating is 47.5 percent. One month ago — on Feb. 12 — those numbers were 48 percent and 47.2 percent, respectively. So this average of polls has shown almost literally no change.

Or you can look at the average from the Huffington Post Pollster chart, which gives you a lot of flexibility in how you calculate the average. You can choose more or less sensitive settings, and you can choose to include or exclude certain pollsters. In the various versions in the chart below, I’ve used the different sensitivity settings and run versions with and without Gallup and Rasmussen Reports, which track Mr. Obama’s approval rating daily and therefore tend to dominate the trend line under this particular method.

But the story is basically the same. The most aggressive settings show Mr. Obama’s approval rating having declined by about one point. The more conservative settings instead show it increasing some. There just hasn’t been a lot of difference.
Click to expand...

He goes on to look at the gas price question.
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
GhaleonEB said:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...val-ratings-gas-prices-and-statistical-noise/



He goes on to look at the gas price question.
Click to expand...

I was about to post that! That was an interesting read. Will be good to see though what other pollster numbers come in at.

In other news. Obama Campaign is launching ads defending ACA/HCR:

Very Powerful, I hope when people see these they realize one of the many reasons HCR was so important
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zv26zzUMVjc&list=PLC70ED429FF836C4D&index=6&feature=plcp
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XHRY52l2oDI&list=PLC70ED429FF836C4D&index=7&feature=plcp
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BlVz5rmsqTA&list=PLC70ED429FF836C4D&index=5&feature=plcp
 
J

Jackson50

Member
RDreamer said:
A Wisconsin judge just ruled that the new voter ID law was unconstitutional
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Wonderful. And this follows a ruling in the 3rd Circuit last week which denied a RNC request to abrogate a legal agreement with the DNC which prohibits the use of certain poll monitoring techniques that intimidate minority voters. Their rationale for dissolving the agreement was the typical bugaboo about voter fraud. Thankfully, the Court wasn't fooled.
GhaleonEB said:
The initial estimates seem to be conservative, as the initial report seems to often miss changes in direction. When the economy was shedding jobs, the reports were revised for the worse each month. Now that we're seeing job gains, the revisions are mostly upward. If we start seeing downward revisions, it's probably a bad sign of the direction.

The revision to January was particularly strong. 284k is a good month by almost any measure.

Edit: beaten to this point by TA. Gotta remember to refresh the page first.
Click to expand...
The Economist had a rather timely post on this exact topic. The magnitude of the revisions is substantial. Although, as they note, the BLS performs well given the intractability of accurately measuring an economy as large and complex as the U.S.'s.
20120317_WOC743.jpg
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
Polling in Deep South has been historically inaccurate

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/03/12/polling-in-deep-south-has-posed-challenges/

If you had looked at the Real Clear Politics average of polls in Alabama in advance of the 2008 primaries, for instance, you would have called the Republican and the Democratic races wrong. Hillary Rodham Clinton had a nominal advantage in the Democratic race there, leading in the Real Clear Politics average by about one percentage point. But in fact, Barack Obama won. It wasn’t even close; he carried the state by 14 percentage points.

A similar problem was evident on the Republican side. The polls were wildly divergent from one another — showing everything from a 16-point lead for Senator John McCain to a 9-point advantage for Mike Huckabee. But the average put Mr. McCain about four percentage points up in Alabama. Mr. Huckabee won the state by about four percentage points instead, however.
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The Chosen One

The Chosen One

Member
Averon said:
Romney's 65?!?! Jeez.....He looks at least 15 years younger than that.
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I guess he's had 65 years of the good life to keep the wrinkles away. But yeah I also thought he was in his mid 50s or something.

Btw, gas prices will give Obama an uppercut over the summer. Then it will be a non-issue when gas prices go down in the fall. Same old story.

At least though it will keep Team Obama from getting complacent after the farce that is the GOP presidential primary.
 
L

LilZippa

Member
cartoon_soldier said:
I was about to post that! That was an interesting read. Will be good to see though what other pollster numbers come in at.

In other news. Obama Campaign is launching ads defending ACA/HCR:

Very Powerful, I hope when people see these they realize one of the many reasons HCR was so important
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zv26zzUMVjc&list=PLC70ED429FF836C4D&index=6&feature=plcp
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XHRY52l2oDI&list=PLC70ED429FF836C4D&index=7&feature=plcp
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BlVz5rmsqTA&list=PLC70ED429FF836C4D&index=5&feature=plcp
Click to expand...

This is the problem that democrats normally have is connecting to the general electorate on an emotional level and I think Obama gets that. Such a different feeling from watching this vs watching the normal GOP attack ads.
 
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