PhoenixDark
Banned
Did you miss all my charts? Gas prices rise every summer. Does unemployment spike every summer?
Of course not, but do they rise during a weak economic period?
Did you miss all my charts? Gas prices rise every summer. Does unemployment spike every summer?
I think Obama loses if UE is 8.5 or higher, regardless of where the numbers are heading. He's had 4 years, people have lost belief that he knows what he's doing. Mix in another debt ceiling fight, high gas prices, Eurozone doubts, etc and I don't see a path to victory.
He's going to be the democrat party's Bush in terms of being completely ignored by future candidates, despite parroting his policies.
I think Obama loses if the economy is losing steam around the election period. If we're seeing improvement, at even moderate pace, I think he wins. Romney will be a poor candidate, and Obama's organization is formidable; his electoral map is still a favorable one to boot.I think Obama loses if UE is 8.5 or higher, regardless of where the numbers are heading. He's had 4 years, people have lost belief that he knows what he's doing. Mix in another debt ceiling fight, high gas prices, Eurozone doubts, etc and I don't see a path to victory.
He's going to be the democrat party's Bush in terms of being completely ignored by future candidates, despite parroting his policies.
I think Obama loses if the economy is losing steam around the election period. If we're seeing improvement, at even moderate pace, I think he wins. Romney will be a poor candidate, and Obama's organization is formidable; his electoral map is still a favorable one to boot.
If the economy takes a hit the way it did last summer during the debt showdown, then his odds worsen considerably. But looking at the calendar, I don't see opportunity for the GOP to inflict such wounds so readily. The only real shot is with the extension of tax cuts and UI benefits shortly, and considering how badly it backfired on them last time, I'm not worried on that one.
They said it would be close to before the next inauguration, not before the election.I'm at work and can't look up the article, but didn't the CBO project we'll hit the debt ceiling in late 2011? If it happens in August or October...yeah
CBO predicts that at the end of fiscal year 2013, the debt subject to the overall limit will be just shy of $16.8 trillion. But the debt limit itself stands at $16.4 trillion. The Treasury Department can create some breathing space for itself using a series of extraordinary measures — but those only go so far. So it’s still an open question how far into 2013 the current debt limit will take us — if it gets us there at all.
“There is a risk that the treasury will hit its $16.4 trillion debt limit before the next presidential inauguration,” emails Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi. “It will be close. I suspect the Treasury will have enough accounting wiggle room to get there, but much depends on whether the economy sticks close to script.”
One plausible scenario, then, is that Congress will have to address the debt ceiling issue in its November-December lame-duck session. But that’s exactly when it’s expected to address huge issues, like the expiring Bush tax cuts and the automatic spending cuts locked in by the last debt limit deal. The outcomes of all those debates will hang heavily on the results of the election — a clean win for Obama portends a much different resolution than an Obama victory in which the GOP takes the Senate, let alone a GOP sweep.
Claims for first-time unemployment benefits fall
After seeing this morning's initial UE benefits numbers I'm guessing tomorrow's jobs report will only show about 100,000 jobs created for the month of January and U.E. to be 8.6%.
What do you think about these numbers Ghal?
Come on guys, Obama has this in the bag, economy or no economy. People are disappointed, but not disappointed enough to vote for the party of no. The negative ads against republicans and their shenanigans are going to be gold. You're all underestimating how much ammo there is against them after these 4 years.
Come on guys, Obama has this in the bag, economy or no economy. People are disappointed, but not disappointed enough to vote for the party of no. The negative ads against republicans and their shenanigans are going to be gold. You're all underestimating how much ammo there is against them after these 4 years.
True, but they've been doing a bit better lately with the messaging and leveraging. Campaign Obama is also best Obama after all. I think they'll be fine.This is the democrats we're talking about--the party that appeared to have absolutely no political savvy over the last 3 years.
I think Obama loses if UE is 8.5 or higher, regardless of where the numbers are heading. He's had 4 years, people have lost belief that he knows what he's doing. Mix in another debt ceiling fight, high gas prices, Eurozone doubts, etc and I don't see a path to victory.
He's going to be the democrat party's Bush in terms of being completely ignored by future candidates, despite parroting his policies.
If it's that high, he'll even lose Illinois. 8.46%? 100 electoral vote win.Will he lose if the unemployment rate is 8.54%?
I think you guys should be looking at unemployment figures and trends for "swing states" more so than the overall national unemployment rates. The unemployment rates of states like New York and Texas are essentially irrelevant, since we already know which "color" certain states will be for any presidential election in the near future.
Ann Romney is pointing at Obama...
Get used to this photo. You'll be seeing it a lot more.
Here is an interesting fact:
There has been no President who has won re-election by a smaller margin than he won his initial election.
If Obama wins re-election by historical standards he'd also have to win by a bigger margin than in 2008.
I think you guys should be looking at unemployment figures and trends for "swing states" more so than the overall national unemployment rates. The unemployment rates of states like New York and Texas are essentially irrelevant, since we already know which "color" certain states will be for any presidential election in the near future.
The latest PPP poll has Obama with a 7 point lead over Romney in Ohio
Well Ohio's unemployment is ticking downward, and we hate our Republican governor.
Romney is a gaff machine. Between, "I'm unemployed too", "Corporations are people too", "Wanna bet ten thousand dollars?", "I like being able to fire people", getting paid "a little" amount of money for speeches, and now the whole not caring about poor people thing, he's going to bring the laughs in the general
The latest PPP poll has Obama with a 7 point lead over Romney in Ohio
Has a Republican president ever won without Ohio?No matter how you do the math, if Obama wins Ohio, he's going to be re-elected.
Has a Republican president ever won without Ohio?
What I'm expecting is:
White House - Obama
Senate - Democrats keep a majority with 51-53 seats
House - Democrats take a narrow majority
Romney needs Ohio, Florida, and some New West states to come his way if he's going to have a shot. I don't think it's even possible for him to lose Ohio and have a shot at winning, unless he does something equally unlikely like carrying PA or something like that.
Was that before or after he "declined to take a position" on it?Well Ohio's unemployment is ticking downward, and we hate our Republican governor.
Not surprising. Romney came to the state and supported Senate Bill 5.
Get used to this photo. You'll be seeing it a lot more.
Was that before or after he "declined to take a position" on it?
Get used to this photo. You'll be seeing it a lot more.
Who the HELL is advising Romney?
I mean with his "corporate raider/silver spoon heir" image this picture can only hurt him.
The.... fuck....?....
Romney's done a great job at making Florida difficult for him with his endless anti-immigration comments and Kasich has done a great job at energizing the democratic base in his state. Romney endorsing Issue 5 will also do him no favors. I also hope the "bu-bu-bu-bu Pennsylvania is in play for republicans this year" stops soon. They say it every election and it never happens.
Why does Ohio have such a large population, I thought the state sucked? Could it be true that once you enter... you're stuck forever? But seriously, I couldn't name one city from the state and only after looking up did I recognize Columbus. Non-USA here of course, but still, this is supposedly THE state to watch every single election. You guys and your weird elections, I mean, I can have the most votes and lose! Fancy that. *sips tea*
Well if he loses Florida he will need Ohio and something else, probably PA in addition to CO, NM, AZ and NV. If he wins Florida but loses Ohio he will need all of the New West, but won't need PA. If he wins both Ohio and FL then he just needs some of those western states to come his way.
So the easiest route will be to concentrate on Ohio and Florida and hope that the high unemployment in FL will net him a win. In Ohio, he'll need to get savvy.
Well if he loses Florida he will need Ohio and something else, probably PA in addition to CO, NM, AZ and NV. If he wins Florida but loses Ohio he will need all of the New West, but won't need PA. If he wins both Ohio and FL then he just needs some of those western states to come his way.
So the easiest route will be to concentrate on Ohio and Florida and hope that the high unemployment in FL will net him a win. In Ohio, he'll need to get savvy.
"There are some things that you just can't imagine happening in your life this is one of them. Being in Donald Trump's magnificent hotel and having his endorsement is a delight."
ahaha
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entries/romney-being-in-donald-trumps-magnificent-hotel-having
In his defense, I haven't told him I'm no longer religious.my dad. said:To be successful as a future public policy advisor, u mst adopt a pro-Israel stance. It is not jst a matter of self interest. God is on Israel side & we must align wt Him.
Tell him to read the bible.I've mentioned in previous PoliGAF threads that I'm applying to grad schools to do a Master's of Public Policy. I just got a very encouraging text from my dad on the matter.
In his defense, I haven't told him I'm no longer religious.