We'll see. If the improvement is not profound enough or Obama does a poor job of communicating that he is making things better, Republicans will easily capitalize on that.
I don't disagree, but so far it has been pretty measurable. Obama and Dems are oddly on message lately, it's weird.
That can change once he really starts campaigning for the GE and not against baby boy Newt. I do not expect it to stay there. Mitt is going to try and capitalize on his "moderate appeal" aura to the best of his ability once he can finally get past the clowns he's been having to deal with in the primary.
Turning around high unfavorables is very hard to do. Once voters sour on a candidate they seldom turn around in short order. I do expect his favorabes to shift, but I have a hard time seeing how he repairs bridges burned with Hispanics, for instance.
Yep, I know. But Obama's poll numbers took a noticeable decline ever since, and his new high seems to be 46... which used to be 51, which used to be 56, etc.
Obama's numbers are lower than last year, but it's worth noting that along with the generic congressional ballot, Obama's approval has been improving with it.
TPM has a good chart on this today:
http://media.talkingpointsmemo.com/slideshow/on-the-comeback-charting-obamas-2011?ref=fpblg
I think we all know these things move close to lockstep: perceptions of an improving economy have boosted Dems chances on the congressional ballot, and boosted Obama as well. And if they turn around, they will drag them down as well. But between Romney, well, being Romney and the continued improvement in the economy, I'm increasingly optimistic. Still squarely in "cautiously optimistic" territory, but more so than I was a month ago.
I hope it's come across by now that I'm a data-driven guy. I have my hunches, biases and gut feelings, but when it comes to this kind of stuff I look at the numbers. And they are tilting in Obama's favor at a good pace. Looking ahead, I see some challenges, but I don't anticipate the economy will be derailed the way it was last year. At the very least, the GOP's ability to contribute to that derail has been hampered, which is partly why I'm more optimistic. But if they do start to tip the other way, you'll see me expressing pessimism about Obama's chances as well. But right now I see things in a much more positive light.