Invisible_Insane
Member
I'd say it's like 55-45 in Obama's favor assuming current conditions prevail, but 5% is just absurdly low.that's still not an answer.
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PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread
- Thread starter AlteredBeast
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Yep. Obama clearly has an EV advantage, but that means the news is more boring for the rest of the year, so they have to pretend that it's closer than what it likely will be.
I remember how in the last cycle, pundits and news orgs all had their electoral maps structured to keep just enough in the 'toss up' category so as to show Obama just below 270. Had to maintain the pretense of a too close to call race, despite the polling evidence in those states. I'm anticipating we'll see the same this time around. (PA was never, ever a toss up.)
Invisible_Insane
Member
I mean really.I remember how in the last cycle, pundits and news orgs all had their electoral maps structured to keep just enough in the 'toss up' category so as to show Obama just below 270. Had to maintain the pretense of a too close to call race, despite the polling evidence in those states. I'm anticipating we'll see the same this time around. (PA is never, ever a toss up.)
I remember how in the last cycle, pundits and news orgs all had their electoral maps structured to keep just enough in the 'toss up' category so as to show Obama just below 270. Had to maintain the pretense of a too close to call race, despite the polling evidence in those states. I'm anticipating we'll see the same this time around. (PA was never, ever a toss up.)
We'll see if they move Colorado, NC, NH and VA or not.
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
I'd say it's like 55-45 in Obama's favor assuming current conditions prevail, but 5% is just absurdly low.
You are telling me that you really think Romney has almost a 50% shot at this election?
Wow. I am sorry, but I can't see it. I mean, I know that the American populace is made up of millions and millions of yokels and complete idiots, but there is almost no conceivable way Obama loses this election, barring some craziness.
And there isn't a way that intrade or anyone else is factoring in for craziness.
Maybe 5% is too low, but there isn't more than 15% chance that Obama loses. He is winning in almost all battleground states.
I mean really.
I was referring to that cycle specifically, thus the past tense, but yeah. Seems every election some pack of idiots are talking about how doomed the Dem candidate is if they lose PA. It's sort of like an IQ test for political pundits.
Hobbestetrician
Member
We'll see if they move Colorado, NC, NH and VA or not.
They had moved, I believe, Colorado, VA and maybe even Ohio to 'lean Obama' around a month ago giving Obama something around 280 EVs but then walked it back down just a few days later.
Bulbo Urethral Baggins
Banned
You are telling me that you really think Romney has almost a 50% shot at this election?
Wow. I am sorry, but I can't see it. I mean, I know that the American populace is made up of millions and millions of yokels and complete idiots, but there is almost no conceivable way Obama loses this election, barring some craziness.
And there isn't a way that intrade or anyone else is factoring in for craziness.
Maybe 5% is too low, but there isn't more than 15% chance that Obama loses. He is winning in almost all battleground states.
C'mon guys. It's way too early to start talking about this stuff. The GE hasn't even started yet. There is so much that can and will happen between now and November. It's really ridiculous to talk about %'s. The economy is clearly tanking. Who knows what kind of foreign policy nightrmare may erupt in the next few months. Obama won't have the Bin Laden anniversary jubilation to shield him much longer from economic matters. He won't have his Julia storybook for us to fancifully finger through. Obamacare will most likely be overturned. They will also most likely lose the Arizona immigration battle in court.
So many things to consider still. Then, there are the debates where Obama will have to defend his record amidst an ailing economy. It's not an assured Obama victory by any means.
They had moved, I believe, Colorado, VA and maybe even Ohio to 'lean Obama' around a month ago giving Obama something around 280 EVs but then walked it back down just a few days later.
they did it and then realized it put Obama over 270, and had to pull them back down, because the numbers didn't get any worse for him
Manmademan
Member
I was referring to that cycle specifically, thus the past tense, but yeah. Seems every election some pack of idiots are talking about how doomed the Dem candidate is if they lose PA. It's sort of like an IQ test for political pundits.
well, you have to MASSIVELY fuck up as a democrat to lose PA (there are more democrats in just Philly than there are republicans in the rest of the state combined), so it's technically true.
It's extremely unlikely to happen, but if you're losing PA, you've certainly lost Ohio, Florida, and any other legit swing state along with it.
well, you have to MASSIVELY fuck up as a democrat to lose PA (there are more democrats in just Philly than there are republicans in the rest of the state combined), so it's technically true.
It's extremely unlikely to happen, but if you're losing PA, you've certainly lost Ohio, Florida, and any other legit swing state along with it.
Well yes, if you lose PA as a Dem, i'm pretty sure its 100% that lost OH and FL
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
I'd say it's like 55-45 in Obama's favor assuming current conditions prevail, but 5% is just absurdly low.
I can see the votes going 55-45, but I can't see the probability of Romney winning being anywhere near 45%
TacticalFox88
Banned
C'mon guys. It's way too early to start talking about this stuff. The GE hasn't even started yet. There is so much that can and will happen between now and November. It's really ridiculous to talk about %'s. The economy is clearly tanking. Who knows what kind of foreign policy nightrmare may erupt in the next few months. Obama won't have the Bin Laden anniversary jubilation to shield him much longer from economic matters. He won't have his Julia storybook for us to fancifully finger through. Obamacare will most likely be overturned. They will also most likely lose the Arizona immigration battle in court.
So many things to consider still. Then, there are the debates where Obama will have to defend his record amidst an ailing economy. It's not an assured Obama victory by any means.
....Yep. Months of straight economic growth means the economy is "tanking". GTFO
Hobbestetrician
Member
Looking at the daily trackers and polls, it's easy to say the election will be close, either way. But the electoral map tells a different story; Romney has a much smaller set of maps to victory than Obama.
Romney's issue is that he has a MAP, singular, that gets him the win.
Manmademan
Member
I can see the votes going 55-45, but I can't see the probability of Romney winning being anywhere near 45%
Agreed. popular vote will probably break that way (within 10% or so), but when thinking of how electoral votes and the states break down, what are the odds that Romney wins nearly every single swing state that he needs to take the election?
That means Ohio, Florida, New Mexico, Nevada, Missouri, North Carolina, AND Virginia? Lose even one of these and it's over, and he's polling behind in just about all of these, and losing independents by 8 points iirc. it's definitely not a 45% chance that this happens.
I wouldn't say 5%, but Mitt needs something like a massive scandal in his favor to have anything resembling an equal (and I consider 45% functionally equal) shot against Obama. Remember again that Romney looked medicre to BAD against a field of literal joke candidates during the primary. Obama would have torn Santorum, Gingrich, Cain, Perry etc to shreds and Mitt will not have an easy time campaigning against him- remember that Santorum only went down because mitt was outspending him 8 to 1 in some states. Mitt simply does not have the funding to compete with Obama this way.
Black Mamba
Member
You go to war with the defense secretary you have, not the one you might want or wish to have at a later time.
edit: nm, I totally forgot about this.
touche. lol
Bulbo Urethral Baggins
Banned
....Yep. Months of straight economic growth means the economy is "tanking". GTFO
Ok. "Tanking" is a bit of a harsh word right now. How about faltering.
Ok. "Tanking" is a bit of a harsh word right now. How about faltering.
maybe wavering? Since there was a huge drop in claims today
Wow, they just don't really get it do they. I suppose having Rubio speak on your behalf is the answer to woo all Hispanics.
This coupled with the ass backwards law in AZ is definitely not going to help the GOP in the fall.
I should not be surprised but to not even try to advertise completely puts the nail in the coffin and erases all the work that George W Bush
did for them from 2000-2006
This coupled with the ass backwards law in AZ is definitely not going to help the GOP in the fall.
I should not be surprised but to not even try to advertise completely puts the nail in the coffin and erases all the work that George W Bush
did for them from 2000-2006
NBC News said:Obama unchallenged on Hispanic media: Restore Our Future, the pro-Romney Super PAC, is up today with a $4.3 million ad buy across nine battleground states. But whats been amazing is that even though the president is getting outspent by outside groups left and right, the one place opponents arent even COMPETING is on Hispanic media outlets. Republicans are not on air on Hispanic media AT ALL so far, according to NBC/Smart Media Delta. President Obama, on the other hand, is going unchecked for two weeks, spending $435,000 and $730,000 total so far this cycle through mid-May with Hispanic media buys in Denver, Las Vegas, Orlando, Tampa, and Miami. If the president is wining by huge margins with Hispanics and women (more on that below), the math becomes very precarious for Romney. Look at those states where the president is advertising: Colorado, Nevada and Florida. Can Romney win the White House without winning at least ONE Western state?
PhoenixDark
Banned
C'mon guys. It's way too early to start talking about this stuff. The GE hasn't even started yet. There is so much that can and will happen between now and November. It's really ridiculous to talk about %'s. The economy is clearly tanking. Who knows what kind of foreign policy nightrmare may erupt in the next few months. Obama won't have the Bin Laden anniversary jubilation to shield him much longer from economic matters. He won't have his Julia storybook for us to fancifully finger through. Obamacare will most likely be overturned. They will also most likely lose the Arizona immigration battle in court.
So many things to consider still. Then, there are the debates where Obama will have to defend his record amidst an ailing economy. It's not an assured Obama victory by any means.
Which is why I still feel Obama will have a tough time winning. The OBL stuff will officially fall off the radar tomorrow when the shitty jobs report comes out; you can tell Romney's campaign has been flailing for two weeks, but tomorrow the entire narrative changes. Given the chaos of 2011 it wouldn't be surprising if another big foreign policy problem erupts, perhaps with Israel/Iran. And as you said, it's likely Obamacare will be thrown out. I'd imagine the SC will uphold the immigration law, and it will help Hispanic turnout.
And of course Obama will have to defend his "record" during the debates. It will no longer be a case of one guy looking more competent than the other, as in 08. This time voters will know Obama's record on the economy and how poor it is. Whereas Romney will be the competent looking one.
Which is why I still feel Obama will have a tough time winning. The OBL stuff will officially fall off the radar tomorrow when the shitty jobs report comes out; you can tell Romney's campaign has been flailing for two weeks, but tomorrow the entire narrative changes. Given the chaos of 2011 it wouldn't be surprising if another big foreign policy problem erupts, perhaps with Israel/Iran. And as you said, it's likely Obamacare will be thrown out. I'd imagine the SC will uphold the immigration law, and it will help Hispanic turnout.
And of course Obama will have to defend his "record" during the debates. It will no longer be a case of one guy looking more competent than the other, as in 08. This time voters will know Obama's record on the economy and how poor it is. Whereas Romney will be the competent looking one.
You made me spit my drink, PD. Good shit.
Bulbo Urethral Baggins
Banned
Which is why I still feel Obama will have a tough time winning. The OBL stuff will officially fall off the radar tomorrow when the shitty jobs report comes out; you can tell Romney's campaign has been flailing for two weeks, but tomorrow the entire narrative changes. Given the chaos of 2011 it wouldn't be surprising if another big foreign policy problem erupts, perhaps with Israel/Iran. And as you said, it's likely Obamacare will be thrown out. I'd imagine the SC will uphold the immigration law, and it will help Hispanic turnout.
And of course Obama will have to defend his "record" during the debates. It will no longer be a case of one guy looking more competent than the other, as in 08. This time voters will know Obama's record on the economy and how poor it is. Whereas Romney will be the competent looking one.
Great minds think alike.
Whereas Romney will be the competent looking one.
Damn dude, you do so well and then shit like this just ruins it
Manmademan
Member
Wow, they just don't really get it do they. I suppose having Rubio speak on your behalf is the answer to woo all Hispanics.
This coupled with the ass backwards law in AZ is definitely not going to help the GOP in the fall.
I should not be surprised but to not even try to advertise completely puts the nail in the coffin and erases all the work that George W Bush
did for them from 2000-2006
No, they really don't. Ask yourself why Sarah Palin was nominated as VP in 2008. The answer to that is because someone honestly thought that simply nominating a woman- any woman, no matter how unqualified would woo all women and disgruntled hillary supporters. Similarly there's a lot of noise about Rubio because a lot of conservatives think it will simply erase their (very serious, very deep rooted) problems with hispanics. It won't.
That wasn't the first time that happened, and won't be the last.
Which is why I still feel Obama will have a tough time winning. The OBL stuff will officially fall off the radar tomorrow when the shitty jobs report comes out; you can tell Romney's campaign has been flailing for two weeks, but tomorrow the entire narrative changes. Given the chaos of 2011 it wouldn't be surprising if another big foreign policy problem erupts, perhaps with Israel/Iran. And as you said, it's likely Obamacare will be thrown out. I'd imagine the SC will uphold the immigration law, and it will help Hispanic turnout.
And of course Obama will have to defend his "record" during the debates. It will no longer be a case of one guy looking more competent than the other, as in 08. This time voters will know Obama's record on the economy and how poor it is. Whereas Romney will be the competent looking one.
Yeah, he's totally unprepared to defend his record.
Wolfgunblood Garopa
Member
C'mon guys. It's way too early to start talking about this stuff. The GE hasn't even started yet. There is so much that can and will happen between now and November. It's really ridiculous to talk about %'s. The economy is clearly tanking. Who knows what kind of foreign policy nightrmare may erupt in the next few months. Obama won't have the Bin Laden anniversary jubilation to shield him much longer from economic matters. He won't have his Julia storybook for us to fancifully finger through. Obamacare will most likely be overturned. They will also most likely lose the Arizona immigration battle in court.
So many things to consider still. Then, there are the debates where Obama will have to defend his record amidst an ailing economy. It's not an assured Obama victory by any means.
Hope and change, right? lol
Bulbo Urethral Baggins
Banned
This article got me wondering...
Why it matters that Obama dated a composite and ate a dog
How many here have actually read Dreams From My Father?
Why it matters that Obama dated a composite and ate a dog
How many here have actually read Dreams From My Father?
Particle Physicist
between a quark and a baryon
People that keep throwing that right wing talking point of Obama having to defend his record, do not realize just how good his record actually is on a whole bunch of stuff.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Damn dude, you do so well and then shit like this just ruins it
Hold on, does anyone doubt Romney passes the presidential test? McCain didn't, at least in the mind of many people (especially after the VP choice and suspension fiasco); he didn't seem competent or knowledgeable. You are denying Romney comes off both competent and knowledgeable?
He's also a far better debater than McCain. That doesn't make him better than Obama, but Obama will be forced to defend his record - high employment, anemic job growth, the deficit, unconstitutional healthcare, etc.
This article got me wondering...
Why it matters that Obama dated a composite and ate a dog
How many here have actually read Dreams From My Father?
I own the book and audio book, and have gone thorugh both. Have you read a single page?
Manmademan
Member
This. The auto rescue alone is a pretty powerful argument FOR his record, and against Mitt "let detroit go bankrupt" Romney.
Hold on, does anyone doubt Romney passes the presidential test? McCain didn't, at least in the mind of many people (especially after the VP choice and suspension fiasco); he didn't seem competent or knowledgeable. You are denying Romney comes off both competent and knowledgeable?
Your argument wasn't that Romney wasn't competent (i think he is, personally- whereas Santorum, Gingrich, Bachmann and Cain were definitely NOT) but saying he's going to come off as more competent than Obama, especially when he can be hammered on taking both sides of literally ANY position you can think of is a bit of a stretch.
Disagree. McCain had credibility in spades that Mitt has never had on his BEST day. And at the end of the day, Debate performance can come down not to facts alone, but charisma and connection with the audience? Who wins that battle? Romney? Or Obama?He's also a far better debater than McCain.
That doesn't make him better than Obama, but Obama will be forced to defend his record - high employment, anemic job growth, the deficit, unconstitutional healthcare, etc.
Obama doesn't really have a problem defending his record, especially since it's easy to point to the obstructionist congress and not strictly his policies for things like tanking the country's credit rating. You'll notice that his popularity went back on the upswing after taking congress to task directly for this, rather than compromising with them.
speculawyer
Member
And there isn't a way that intrade or anyone else is factoring in for craziness.
Maybe 5% is too low, but there isn't more than 15% chance that Obama loses. He is winning in almost all battleground states.
I think the 35% number is pretty good. If it were tomorrow, Obama wins. But there is far too much chaos for numbers down in the 5 to 15% level at this point. Iran war, another financial meltdown, unemployment going way up, a scandal, a VEEP choice that somehow makes a difference, a terrorist attack, etc.
But this is just statistics wankery. Obama is cruising along.
Particle Physicist
between a quark and a baryon
This article got me wondering...
Why it matters that Obama dated a composite and ate a dog
How many here have actually read Dreams From My Father?
Im not sure. What stands out from the composite story isnt that Obama amalgamated characters, its that the press hadnt noticed until now. As with the dog story, this confirms the suspicion that the mainstream media gave Obama a free pass in 2008 and declined to check too deeply into his background.
lol. Yeah, Obama was never vetted by Republicans or the media in 08!!!
I almost didn't read that article based on the title alone.
Bulbo Urethral Baggins
Banned
I own the book and audio book, and have gone thorugh both. Have you read a single page?
No. I haven't read it. I thought the article makes a good point that the reason these issues are brought up now is because nobody seems to have read it. - at least not conservative bloggers who seemed shocked by these revelations.
Looking at the daily trackers and polls, it's easy to say the election will be close, either way. But the electoral map tells a different story; Romney has a much smaller set of maps to victory than Obama.
This is exactly what I've been telling all of my friends for the past few months. If Obama wins Ohio or Florida, it is impossible for him to lose the election. And if he picked up a bunch of extra swing states it would still be possible for him to win without either of those (though significantly less likely).
I expect the Obama campaign will spend more in Ohio than anywhere else in the country. He's already doing quite a bit better there than in Florida, and if he can just guarantee a victory there, then he wins.
Wolfgunblood Garopa
Member
This article got me wondering...
Why it matters that Obama dated a composite and ate a dog
How many here have actually read Dreams From My Father?
ZZZZZzzzzz
This is exactly what I've been telling all of my friends for the past few months. If Obama wins Ohio or Florida, it is impossible for him to lose the election. And if he picked up a bunch of extra swing states it would still be possible for him to win without either of those (though significantly less likely).
I expect the Obama campaign will spend more in Ohio than anywhere else in the country. He's already doing quite a bit better there than in Florida, and if he can just guarantee a victory there, then he wins.
he has decent leads as of today in VA, NC and CO. Those are more then enough for him to win without OH or FL. The map math is insanely difficult for Romney
Officerrob
Banned
Which is why I still feel Obama will have a tough time winning. The OBL stuff will officially fall off the radar tomorrow when the shitty jobs report comes out; you can tell Romney's campaign has been flailing for two weeks, but tomorrow the entire narrative changes. Given the chaos of 2011 it wouldn't be surprising if another big foreign policy problem erupts, perhaps with Israel/Iran. And as you said, it's likely Obamacare will be thrown out. I'd imagine the SC will uphold the immigration law, and it will help Hispanic turnout.
And of course Obama will have to defend his "record" during the debates. It will no longer be a case of one guy looking more competent than the other, as in 08. This time voters will know Obama's record on the economy and how poor it is. Whereas Romney will be the competent looking one.
Romney lost numerous debates to Newt Gingrich (with his awful record) and Rick Santorum (who is insane), yet you just assume he will be be one looking competent in a debate with Obama.............good luck with that.
The Librarian
Banned
No. I haven't read it. I thought the article makes a good point that the reason these issues are brought up now is because nobody seems to have read it. - at least not conservative bloggers who seemed shocked by these revelations.
Obviously no one has read it because they didn't read a few pages into the book.
Manmademan
Member
No. I haven't read it. I thought the article makes a good point that the reason these issues are brought up now is because nobody seems to have read it. - at least not conservative bloggers who seemed shocked by these revelations.
Conservatives not reading is a revelation now?
You may also be surprised to find out conservative rejection of evolution and global warming may in fact NOT be based on scientific fact.
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
Romney lost numerous debates to Newt Gingrich (with his awful record) and Rick Santorum (who is insane), yet you just assume he will be be one looking competent in a debate with Obama.............good luck with that.
To be fair, he usually only "lost" those because he is, in reality, not insane, and the Republican crowd wanted blood and bigotry. Sometimes, he couldnt deliver. Unfortunately for him, he keeps delivering the insane even though he shouldn't have to. If Obama was, in fact, some sort of leftist socialist, a centrist would beat him easily, but Obama has in reality been a huge centrist. A right-wing version of Obama is unnecessary (in the eyes of the American Public) and therefore can't win.
Aaron Strife
Banned
I don't buy into the suspicion that tomorrow's job report is going to be horrible. The numbers tweeted by Rep. Ellison about manufacturing jobs on the upswing were very encouraging.
I could have told you that none of the characters in the book had their real names (save for Obama and his family), and I remembered him mentioning eating dog but it didn't stick out to me because it's a different culture. I have some Asian friends who've eaten dog before. I have Native American relatives and I tried sheep intestine. So I wasn't shocked and outraged the way conservatives are pretending to be.
So tell me, have YOU read thebill book?
I got about 85% of the way into it. The last part (where he visits his family in Kenya) didn't click with me. I did a book report for it on English class. It's an okay read but it's a little dense.How many here have actually read Dreams From My Father?
I could have told you that none of the characters in the book had their real names (save for Obama and his family), and I remembered him mentioning eating dog but it didn't stick out to me because it's a different culture. I have some Asian friends who've eaten dog before. I have Native American relatives and I tried sheep intestine. So I wasn't shocked and outraged the way conservatives are pretending to be.
So tell me, have YOU read the
This article got me wondering...
Why it matters that Obama dated a composite and ate a dog
How many here have actually read Dreams From My Father?
That article makes no fucking sense:
That’s the significance of the canine and composite revelations – both of them, aside from their delightful “dish” factors, not really revelations at all. That we are only discussing them this late into Obama’s career suggests that the vetting that should have happened four years ago was unforgivably neglected.
So... the fact that 2 things that, even in this author's own admission, aren't actually that revelatory, didn't blow up in the media is proof that he wasn't vetted? These two things really don't matter to anyone at all and I don't really see why they should ever be big news. The fact that they weren't actually big news proves something? This is just silly.
I haven't read the book. I don't normally read non-fiction. Maybe I'll pick it up someday though.
The dog eating thing may have stuck out a bit to me if only for the fact that my dad ate dog (accidentally) when he was stationed in Japan, and he likes to joke around about it a lot. So I may have given a nice little chuckle at that.
No. I haven't read it. I thought the article makes a good point that the reason these issues are brought up now is because nobody seems to have read it. - at least not conservative bloggers who seemed shocked by these revelations.
the reason why it isn't brought up is because obama points out in the damn book that some of the persons in the book are combinations of several people for the sake of compression (IE: If you want to talk about things that happened with your girlfriends, easier to combine two girlfriends in new york into one girlfriend and tell both stories than bother drawing the distinction between each girlfriend and each girl's personality and each experience). It also allows their privacy to be respected while still enabling Obama to tell his own personal story.
As for the dog eating... he was a child living in indonesia, where such a practice wasn't seen as taboo. Are we really going to vet a president over the food culture he grew up in as a pre-pubescent boy?
Come on, Bulbo.
StopMakingSense
Member
Elitist literary devices.
speculawyer
Member
No, they really don't. Ask yourself why Sarah Palin was nominated as VP in 2008. The answer to that is because someone honestly thought that simply nominating a woman- any woman, no matter how unqualified would woo all women and disgruntled hillary supporters. Similarly there's a lot of noise about Rubio because a lot of conservatives think it will simply erase their (very serious, very deep rooted) problems with hispanics. It won't.
That wasn't the first time that happened, and won't be the last.
A Hispanic might help a little bit . . . but not a Cuban one.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Teleprompters, books, what won't Obozo read from?Elitist literary devices.
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