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[Jooney]

Now that the dust has settled on the primaries, it’s good to look back to see what impact Super PACs had on the process. Bill’s guest on the latest Moyers & Company broke down the state of play of the new landscape in political advertising, including pointing out the alarming impact Super PACs have had so far in the election. Of note, these two things jumped out:

• 
  The Pro-Romney Super PAC outspent the Pro- Santorum and Pro-Gingrich Super PACs twenty-to-one (!).

• 
  So far this cycle, outside groups including Super PACs has accounted for sixty percent of all advertising, versus three percent in 2008.

Full transcript here: http://billmoyers.com/segment/kathleen-hall-jamieson-on-election-2012-media-tactics/

Anyone who was holding it against Obama for having his own Super PAC is crazy – the new media landscape dictates that you gotta have one if you’re going to stay competitive.

Anyone else think this election is going to get unprecedented levels of ugly? The period between conventions and election day are going to be awful.

 

[eBay Huckster]

Rob Portman is safe and from Ohio.

he also doesn't do anything for Romney in Ohio (probably BECAUSE he's safe - unlike Sherrod Brown, half the damn voters here don't know enough about him either way)

 

[Aaron Strife]

Personally I don't see why a VP choice has to ever be exciting or unconventional. If that sort of energy isn't coming from the presidential nominee already, there's a problem.

Look at the dynamic that occurred in 2008. McCain chose Palin as a political ploy to attract women and it failed miserably. Obama chose Biden who, history of gaffes aside, was a respectable senator and a decent choice all-around. He didn't need his VP to rev up the base because he was already doing that. I'm wholly convinced that McCain would have run a closer race had he gone with someone not insane.

If I were on Romney's team, I'd want him to pick someone like Portman for that exact reason. But he's an idiot so he'll pick Rubio.

 

[Jooney]

Yep. Unlike McCain, Romney doesn't need to play a wild card to get the base excited. They have Obama (and teh gays) to do that for them.

 

[Dominican Power]

Yep. Unlike McCain, Romney doesn't need to play a wild card to get the base excited. They have Obama (and teh gays) to do that for them.

YOU FORGOT THE ECONOMY!!!!! THEE ECONOMY!

 

[TacticalFox88]

. I'm wholly convinced that McCain would have run a closer race had he gone with someone not insane. .

No way. McCain would've been stomped regardless due to how toxic and jaded people were with Bush.

 

[reggieandTFE]

Indiana is a great place to live and you all should be ashamed of yourselves for speaking otherwise.

Seriously, make an argument for why anyone should choose to live in Indiana over any other state.

 

[Skiptastic]

Seriously, make an argument for why anyone should choose to live in Indiana over any other state.

Like any state, it depends on where you're living. I'm just north of Indy and here's what I get:

• Reasonable to low tax rates (sales, income and property)
• Great school system (I'm in Carmel but I'm sure Fishers and Zionsville areas are nice too)
• Great public universities (Purdue, Indiana, IUPUI)
• Housing market that is within buying power of young people (I bought my house when I was 26 and I'm not independently wealthy or anything)
• Little to no traffic problems
• Airport that gets to most major cities and is easy to get in and out of
• Two major sports teams with reasonable ticket prices (Colts and Pacers) along with minor league baseball team that is super cheap
• One of the best children's museums in the world
• Within five hours drive of Chicago, Cincinnati, St. Louis, Louisville, Columbus, Detroit, Nashville

I'm not saying it's the most exciting place to live and if you're coming from New York living or something, you might not be into it. But for raising a family, there is affordable housing, great schools, and more than enough to do in the area to stay interested. Plus, it's easier on your wallet. Hence, a great place to live.

 

[Jackson50]

just walked out of Avengers to a bunch of texts about Tommy Thompson. lol, man conservatives are fired up in Wisconsin

I walked out of Avengers to no texts. I win.

Personally I don't see why a VP choice has to ever be exciting or unconventional. If that sort of energy isn't coming from the presidential nominee already, there's a problem.

Look at the dynamic that occurred in 2008. McCain chose Palin as a political ploy to attract women and it failed miserably. Obama chose Biden who, history of gaffes aside, was a respectable senator and a decent choice all-around. He didn't need his VP to rev up the base because he was already doing that. I'm wholly convinced that McCain would have run a closer race had he gone with someone not insane.

If I were on Romney's team, I'd want him to pick someone like Portman for that exact reason. But he's an idiot so he'll pick Rubio.

They don't. People obsess over running mates, yet there's meager evidence they actually affect the election. To the extent that they're material, the evidence indicates the public will punish a poor choice. Otherwise, it's mostly inconsequential. Prudence dictates a competent running mate who will not detract from the ticket. If they originate from a large state of political import, they may increase a candidate's vote share slightly in that state. Otherwise, assuring your running mate is competent and does not detract from the ticket is paramount. I'm fairly confident Portman satisfies that criteria. Rubio? Perhaps, but he only has a year of experience at the national level. If I were Romney, the risk would be prohibitive.

 

[Jason's Ultimatum]

As much as I hate Florida, I'd rather say here than live in Indiana.

 

[PhoenixDark]

he also doesn't do anything for Romney in Ohio (probably BECAUSE he's safe - unlike Sherrod Brown, half the damn voters here don't know enough about him either way)

One poll has shown that. Portman would certainly have no problem camping out in Ohio and introducing himself as well as Romney. Hell, he could literally stay there all campaign season

Rubio would be somewhat of a hail mary choice. He revs up the base, upstages Romney, but also contradicts his "experience" message. But then again, Biden contradicted Obama's change message and it worked out perfect

 

[eBay Huckster]

Portman would certainly have no problem camping out in Ohio and introducing himself as well as Romney.

He did that for literally the entire 2010 cycle (minus Romney) and he still has shit for favorables

 

[Diablos]

Sounds like the EU going belly up is a potential threat to whoever is President when it happens. The OT is having a doom-and-gloom fest over it. What do you say, PoliGAF? Greece might actually be practically dead and leaving the EU... Krugman thinks a complete dismantling of the Euro is next.

Hopefully it doesn't happen until 2013. I don't want the Eurozone totally crashing and burning to be responsible for ruining the Democrats for decades to come, giving Mittens a free ride to the Presidency, and solidifying an era of unrelenting rampant social and economic conservatism...

 

[Amir0x]

Krugman thinks a complete dismantling of the Euro is next.

I posted this before Kabouter deleted it, presumably because Kabouter is annoyed that a global crisis would be discussed in a global fashion, so reposting it here:

The following responses were about me feeling that whoever is the incumbent when the Eurozone collapses would be fucked politically, potentially their party too

lol what the fuck

Why would Obama or Romney be blamed for a European debt crisis?

Why would the US president be blamed for the collapse of the EU?

man you guys are obviously not familiar with the American people

Obama was not responsible for this current recession and he's still getting blamed for it by almost a majority of Americans. If the EU Collapses, the American economy is going to be damaged for a good time again. Whoever becomes president during this event will inevitably take the blame from the American people, because the average voter is not intelligent enough to understand what the president actually has control over.

They blame the president for gas prices, when there's nothing any president could really do to change the prices drastically. They blame the president for a recession he didn't cause. They'll blame him for a EU Collapse too.

Whoever is president when this event happens will have his party in deep shit for a generation.

 

[Diablos]

EU crash 2013, believe. Obama is starting to really do well in terms of his re-election chances and I'd hate to see it be erased by the Eurozone.

Not sure why Kabouter would not want people to talk about the global implications of the EU dying, as that's half the reason why people are panicking to begin with.

 

[Amir0x]

EU crash 2013, believe. Obama is starting to really do well in terms of his re-election chances and I'd hate to see it be erased by the Eurozone.

I was speculating in the other topic if it'd be better for Obama to lose anyway and let Romney and the Republicans take the blame if the Eurozone hadn't collapsed yet but was showing even more signs that it was definitely going to, or if he should just get elected anyway.

Not sure why Kabouter would not want people to talk about the global implications of the EU dying, as that's half the reason why people are panicking to begin with.

I'm not sure either. Kabouter seemed like this was something brewing for him for a while or something, because he made a comment like "I wonder if we'll ever be able to discuss politics on GAF without it being about the US." Maybe US politics have inappropriately inserted themselves into topics of European political discussion before, I don't know, but this is not such a case.

It is almost comically obvious that the Eurozone collapsing is a GLOBAL political event, not merely a regional one. Trying to prevent a specific line of discussion because it's not adhering to one particular region on this subject is absurd. But, it's not my decision to make.

 

[Tamanon]

I posted this before Kabouter deleted it, presumably because Kabouter is annoyed that a global crisis would be discussed in a global fashion, so reposting it here:

The following responses were about me feeling that whoever is the incumbent when the Eurozone collapses would be fucked politically, potentially their party too







man you guys are obviously not familiar with the American people

Obama was not responsible for this current recession and he's still getting blamed for it by almost a majority of Americans. If the EU Collapses, the American economy is going to be damaged for a good time again. Whoever becomes president during this event will inevitably take the blame from the American people, because the average voter is not intelligent enough to understand what the president actually has control over.

They blame the president for gas prices, when there's nothing any president could really do to change the prices drastically. They blame the president for a recession he didn't cause. They'll blame him for a EU Collapse too.

Whoever is president when this event happens will have his party in deep shit for a generation.

Actually, a majority of Americans still blame Bush for the recession.

Fifty-nine percent in the Washington Post/ABC poll said Bush was responsible for the current economic conditions, while just 25% said Obama was. That number is backed up by a Gallup poll from late March showing that 75% say Bush bears a “great deal” or “moderate amount” of the responsibility for the current economy. Fifty percent said the same thing about Obama.

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/...public-turning-around-in-economic-polling.php

 

[Amir0x]

Actually, a majority of Americans still blame Bush for the recession.

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/...public-turning-around-in-economic-polling.php

I said "almost a majority", not a majority. But these numbers don't really tell the story. Even though they blame Bush, Obama is still taking the specific political damage for the economy doing poorly. The logic goes: A voter may be able to rationally understand it's not Obama's fault, but all he knows is that he doesn't have a job, so he's not going to vote for the incumbent. The result effectively is that the incumbent takes the blame anyway.

 

[RoninChaos]

What happened to speculawyer?

 

[Measley]

EU crash 2013, believe. Obama is starting to really do well in terms of his re-election chances and I'd hate to see it be erased by the Eurozone.

Not sure why Kabouter would not want people to talk about the global implications of the EU dying, as that's half the reason why people are panicking to begin with.

Only Americans would be dumb enough to blame the U.S. president for the collapse of the Eurozone.

 

[RDreamer]

Only Americans would be dumb enough to blame the U.S. president for the collapse of the Eurozone.

If the US economy tanked as a result of it they definitely would.... Stupid, but I know they would.

 

[Jackson50]

If the US economy tanked as a result of it they definitely would.... Stupid, but I know they would.

Right. They wouldn't blame the president for the collapse of the eurozone. They'd punish the president for the consequent recession. And economic voting is hardly an American phenomenon.

 

[Suikoguy]

So if Kabouter says we can't discuss politics in the OT, can we only discuss it here then?

 

[ClassyPenguin]

He just pointed out to leave US domestic politics out of international threads. In the Greek thread, a lot of Ron Paul, and then Ami's post on Obama really don't belong there.

 

[Amir0x]

So if Kabouter says we can't discuss politics in the OT, can we only discuss it here then?

If for some reason Kabouter said that, I'm sure it would have been discussed with the other mods and we'd have to follow that. That's not what Kabouter said... Kabouter seems to be annoyed that American politics keeps infecting the European political topics. I'm not sure, I rarely participate in European political topics.

This specific discussion regarding the EuroZone, though, is a global phenomenon, so in a topic speculating what is going to happen if the Eurozone collapses, it makes sense to ponder what would happen to the world's dominant power, politically and economically. I think Kab is just probably annoyed at having to constantly hear American political discussion in European political topics and chose to exercise the frustration in a topic where it might have not necessarily been the best idea. But I can't blame Kab, I've done stuff like that before. It's human.

 

[Particle Physicist]

He just pointed out to leave US domestic politics out of international threads. In the Greek thread, a lot of Ron Paul, and then Ami's post on Obama really don't belong there.

I kinda disagree, it's all interrelated. Ron Paul stuff should never be discussed in any serious fashion though.

 

[PantherLotus]

1. Trolling spec when he's banned (why was he banned, anyway?) is terrible form, though I've certainly done it to TA a time or two.

2. To TA's point ... what was it? I know you don't believe in infinite oil, which means you believe in peak oil production. Where/when do you think that's gonna happen? Because the answer is now. Take a look around. Texas is dry. Alaska nearly so. We're boiling sand in Canada and digging a mile deep in the gulf to get the last bits we can find. How many more years of oil do you think we really have?

3. All politics are local -- and all politics are global now, too. I like that the PoliGAF thread is in the community section now, but what's this about not talking politics in OT at all?

4. You know things are looking good when Diablos isn't preaching doom and gloom.

5. All: don't be too sure that Romney won't be willing to throw a hail mary with his VP pic. The real issue is that no matter who he picks, he's either pandering to local demos he can't possibly win (latinos in FLA / NM / AZ / CO) or reinforcing his worst characteristics (boring, heartless). There are really no good choices.

 

[AlteredBeast]

2. To TA's point ... what was it? I know you don't believe in infinite oil, which means you believe in peak oil production. Where/when do you think that's gonna happen? Because the answer is now. Take a look around. Texas is dry. Alaska nearly so. We're boiling sand in Canada and digging a mile deep in the gulf to get the last bits we can find. How many more years of oil do you think we really have?

I didn't realize that either Texas or Alaska were nearing anywhere close to "dry", do you have any articles about this? I was under the impression that there were still billions and billions of proven barrels in both areas still. Couple that with the aforementioned tar sands and such and it doesn't seem like we are hitting peak oil yet. I would love to see some graphs or stats, though, to improve my own knowledge of the subject.

 

[happyfunball]

I didn't realize that either Texas or Alaska were nearing anywhere close to "dry", do you have any articles about this? I was under the impression that there were still billions and billions of proven barrels in both areas still. Couple that with the aforementioned tar sands and such and it doesn't seem like we are hitting peak oil yet. I would love to see some graphs or stats, though, to improve my own knowledge of the subject.

Peak oil doesn't mean there's no oil left, just that the rate of oil production begins to decrease from its maximum.

For instance, Texas:

Fracking is going to open some previously dry wells and possibly tick this up a bit in the coming years. There are some more dramatic graphs on google images but I'm not sure how reliable they are.

Edit: First graph a bit too big.

 

[RustyNails]

Any medicare experts willing to help out my waifu? She has to write about the loopholes in medicare that for-profit health facilities take advantage of. I have no idea where to start.

 

[el retorno]

Right. They wouldn't blame the president for the collapse of the eurozone. They'd punish the president for the consequent recession. And economic voting is hardly an American phenomenon.

Every European country that has had elections since 2010 I think has switched governments.

 

[Oblivion]

RNC Chairman: JP Morgan Chase's $2 billion loss proves that we need LESS regulation.

How the fuck do these guys have jobs?

 

[AlteredBeast]

Peak oil doesn't mean there's no oil left, just that the rate of oil production begins to decrease from its maximum.

For instance, Texas:

Fracking is going to open some previously dry wells and possibly tick this up a bit in the coming years. There are some more dramatic graphs on google images but I'm not sure how reliable they are.

Edit: First graph a bit too big.

That is pure insanity. How many wells have run dry? The massive drop off in the last 30 years is earth-shattering if it werent for so many other sources of Oil that we use now, otherwise, I reckon gas would be 3 or 4 times the price it is right now.

 

[Suikoguy]

http://www.window.state.tx.us/specialrpt/energy/nonrenewable/images/exhibit4-15.png

Never mind, different date range. I'm leaving it cause it shows the number of active wells.

 

[Chumly]

RNC Chairman: JP Morgan Chase's $2 billion loss proves that we need LESS regulation.

How the fuck do these guys have jobs?

Its like they have the mental capacity of a 5th grader...

Preibus: Listen, I'm not a financial expert or an expert on SEC, but I can tell you this president talks a lot about regulation on Wall Street, he takes millions and millions of dollars on Wall Street, what he's done over the last 3 1/2 years...

...

...they haven't controlled any of these things. So, they've made things worse.

This is the best argument that they can come up with? So we should just get rid of regulation now instead? When are conservatives going to have a real party?

 

[AlteredBeast]

looks like they are pumping at the same rate they were 20 and 30 years ago, tapping them all as they were, but the amount that are active has plummeted.

Any graphs for Alaska? Even though the rate of droppage has definitely slowed, it is only a matter of time before these current active ones start to go down again, or at least the ones they find will not match the the ones they plunder.

 

[Chumly]

looks like they are pumping at the same rate they were 20 and 30 years ago, tapping them all as they were, but the amount that are active has plummeted.

Any graphs for Alaska? Even though the rate of droppage has definitely slowed, it is only a matter of time before these current active ones start to go down again, or at least the ones they find will not match the the ones they plunder.

LINK

 

[empty vessel]

looks like they are pumping at the same rate they were 20 and 30 years ago, tapping them all as they were, but the amount that are active has plummeted.

Any graphs for Alaska? Even though the rate of droppage has definitely slowed, it is only a matter of time before these current active ones start to go down again, or at least the ones they find will not match the the ones they plunder.

I'll be a little nicer:

US oil production is basically at its historical end.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Even if the Dodd-Frank derivative law was in effect already it would not have prevented JP Morgan's bullshit. To me this is nothing but an example of a major problem that might never be fixed by either party, because both are knee deep in Wall Street.

It's going to be real interesting when we crash again due to banks, and people start wondering what that whole Dodd-Frank "ends Too Big To Fail" nonsense was about.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Even if the Dodd-Frank derivative law was in effect already it would not have prevented JP Morgan's bullshit. To me this is nothing but an example of a major problem that might never be fixed by either party, because both are knee deep in Wall Street.

It's going to be real interesting when we crash again due to banks, and people start wondering what that whole Dodd-Frank "ends Too Big To Fail" nonsense was about.

I believe it is about the Volcker Rule in Dodd-Frank

http://www.marketplace.org/topics/business/easy-street/jp-morgans-loss-explainer

It's an idea that's part of the Dodd-Frank legislative reforms. Paul Volcker, the former Federal Reserve chairman, said banks should go back to being middlemen for clients. So they should stop any kind of investment activity on their own behalf: no more putting money in hedge funds, investing in companies, or taking big, stupid bets in the market.

Problem is it hasn't been fully written, banks are fighting it, Congress is fighting it, Fed is fighting it, Treasury is fighting it.

What we really need though is to go back to the days when investment banks were separate from retail banks.

 

[jamesinclair]

RE: EU meltdown.


Lol.

The same people crying chicken about the euro collapsing have been doing it since.....before the euro! Seriously, since the currency was just a damn computer symbol people have been calling for its collapse.


Youll find the same people have been yelling about Obama creating hyperinflation for years.

 

[XMonkey]

Youll find the same people have been yelling about Obama creating hyperinflation for years.

Really?

 

[Rocket Scientist]

Hey guys, so what are some important dates to watch for votes in the house/senate? I recently read about a small business tax cut which was passed by the house, but there was criticism that it would benefit ''large'' small businesses too much so it's unclear what the senate is going to do. Also, what's the deal with the student loan interest and Rubio's DREAM act, are there going to be votes on this? This stuff was in the news some time ago, big in the the news, but now it's like these issues don't even exist. Or maybe I just completely missed the news where they voted on these obviously.

 

[thefro]

oh snap.... Obama campaign goes after Romney's Bain Capital years hard
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sWiSFwZJXwE

 

[VanMardigan]

oh snap.... Obama campaign goes after Romney's Bain Capital years hard
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sWiSFwZJXwE

Wow, that had a ton of emotional impact. Made me angry at Mittens. The way they inserted his talking points there was genius, made him seem extra weasely.

Also, all the people talking were working class white males. That can't hurt.

 

[Rocket Scientist]

I wish I wasn't on my phone, need to see that if it's so good. Question, did they use/interview people who worked for some of the companies that Bain destroyed?

 

[Clevinger]

I wish I wasn't on my phone, need to see that if it's so good. Question, did they use/interview people who worked for some of the companies that Bain destroyed?

Yes.

 

[Zabka]

oh snap.... Obama campaign goes after Romney's Bain Capital years hard
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sWiSFwZJXwE

There's a 6 minute version up too:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZMndjLIQUFw&feature=relmfu

ETA: I've read about the stuff Bain did but man that is depressing. It's still amazing that they would nominate a cheesy 1980s corporate raider type following one of the worst financial crises in American history.

 

[The Librarian]

oh snap.... Obama campaign goes after Romney's Bain Capital years hard
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sWiSFwZJXwE

I was wondering when Bams would start this.

 

[Brinbe]

Daaamn, love how they're constantly on the offensive. Very impressive.

And with that mountain of ammo against Rombot, they can afford to keep up this pressure for quite a while.