• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread

Status
Not open for further replies.
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
ToxicAdam said:
I just think PPP's initial poll was way out of wack. Most polls had Romney as a single digit underdog, but PPP had him down double digits (15 points).
Click to expand...

PPP has a very good track record. They got CO wrong but I don't think anyone got CO right.

But then, this primary has been a roller coaster.
 
S

speculawyer

Member
More on the fabulous AZ Sheriff.

PHOENIX (Reuters) - A local sheriff resigned as a co-chair of Republican presidential hopeful Mitt Romney's campaign in Arizona on Saturday after he was accused of threatening a former male lover with deportation to Mexico if he talked about their relationship.

In an embarrassing incident for Romney's struggling campaign, Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu denied that he or his lawyer made the deportation threat but stepped down from helping the former Massachusetts governor in the border state.
Babeu acknowledged at a press conference on Saturday that he is gay and that he had a personal relationship with the man making the allegations, whom he identified only as "Jose."

"Sheriff Babeu has stepped down from his volunteer position with the campaign so he can focus on the allegations against him. We support his decision," the Romney campaign said in a statement.

The Phoenix New Times alternative newspaper reported on Friday that Babeu's lawyer had asked Jose to sign a legal agreement that would require him to keep quiet about his involvement with the sheriff. According to the newspaper, the lawyer also warned Jose that any talk about their relationship could imperil his immigration status.

"All of these allegations that were in one of these newspapers were absolutely false, except for the issue that referred to me as being gay, and that is the truth. I am gay," Babeu said at the news conference.

Babeu first came to statewide prominence in 2010 when he appeared in a campaign ad for U.S. Senator John McCain of Arizona, the Republican presidential nominee two years earlier, calling for tough immigration measures.

The sheriff, who is a tough law-and-order advocate, was considered a rising star in state Republican politics and a strong candidate to win the Republican nomination for a congressional seat in Arizona this year.
Click to expand...

Well if true, that is some evil stuff . . . . 'tell anyone and I'll have you deported!'.

There is something wrong with some of these people. He is in a party that hates gays and hates immigrants. And here he is gay and being gay with an immigrant? Paging Dr. Freud.
 
M

Mortrialus

Banned
speculawyer said:
More on the fabulous AZ Sheriff.



Well if true, that is some evil stuff . . . . 'tell anyone and I'll have you deported!'.

There is something wrong with some of these people. He is in a party that hates gays and hates immigrants. And here he is gay and being gay with an immigrant? Paging Dr. Freud.
Click to expand...

Can anyone post a list of vocally anti-gay democrat who was eventually revealed to be gay? I'm curious to see how they compare to gay anti-gay republicans who were ousted.
 
S

speculawyer

Member
Clevinger said:
God, this annoys the shit out of me. Voters obviously dislike Romney, then he throws millions at the state and turns it around in a week or two. He must thank Jesus every night for that Citizen United ruling, because without it he would have been completely fucked.
Click to expand...

Some of this is the Santorum campaign's fault. I'm Super-Christian. Foster Friess with the 'aspirin between the knees', Rick whining about the worst religious oppression EVER when most people liked the birth control rule, etc. Like all the other candidates, the spotlight hits him and he melts.
 
T

ToxicAdam

Member
cartoon_soldier said:
PPP has a very good track record. They got CO wrong but I don't think anyone got CO right.

But then, this primary has been a roller coaster.
Click to expand...

PPP's had one good cycle so far, let's not crown them the gold standard of polling. They are still capable of making mistakes.


--- /// ---

Just finished my taxes (what an exciting Saturday night!) and TaxAct had a cool feature:

It takes your total tax paid, then shows how much is applied to each category.
National Defense 20%
Veterans and Foreign Affairs 4%
Medicaid, Food Stamps, and Related Programs 16%
Unemployment and Social Services 9%
Social Security, Medicare, and Other Retirement 36%
Net Interest on the Debt 6%
Law Enforcement and General Government 2%
Physical, Human, and Community Development 7%
Click to expand...

24 percent of my tax money goes to military and foreign affairs. How wonderful.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
"Play around with the CNN delegate calculator and you can see that even if Romney were to win every contest going forward with 100 percent of the delegates (that's called kickin' it North Korea-style) he still wouldn't reach 1,144 until April 3. Under a similar extreme scenario, it would take Rick Santorum until April 23. Here's the real kicker: If Romney and Santorum were to split the delegates going forward and each were to carry five of the 10 all-or-nothing contests, neither candidate would win enough delegates to clinch the nomination."

"Add to that mix the fact that Ron Paul's got very little reason to not go all the way to Tampa collecting delegates along the way--and Newt Gingrich has sworn less convincingly to do the same -- and the math gets even more daunting for Team Mitt."
Click to expand...
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articl...ndar-makes-early-nomination-clinch-tough.html
 
A

Al-ibn Kermit

Junior Member
^In that case, wouldn't the candidate with the most delegates automatically win?

Invisible_Insane said:
On the one hand, Obama shouldn't be dignifying Santorum's presence in the race by responding to this. But on the other hand, this would be a good opportunity to make some remark about the religious intolerance of the right.
Click to expand...

Obama shouldn't go on the offensive regarding religious/social values until Santorum secures the nomination. If Obama responds to Santorum now, he'd raise the chances of Romney getting the nomination.
 
J

Jackson50

Member
cartoon_soldier said:
PPP has a very good track record. They got CO wrong but I don't think anyone got CO right.

But then, this primary has been a roller coaster.
Click to expand...
They were also outperformed in FL by other pollsters. So, although PPP is a quality pollster, they are hardly inviolable. I would not be surprised if their initial estimates were inaccurate. They are likely refining their likely voter screen.
cartoon_soldier said:
The other problem Santorum has is delegate math too. For example, even though he won the popular votes in the 3 states of Colorado, Minn and MO, majority of the delegates in Minn and MO were Paul Supporters.

The Republican Delegate math is a nightmare and nobody really knows who has how many delegates.
Click to expand...
He did not even secure projected delegates in MO. It was technically inconsequential. Moreover, Santorum failed to qualify for the ballot in VA. So not only is Romney guaranteed MA, he'll win VA permitting him to concentrate on OH and a few other states. Santorum's going to have a terribly difficult task competing on Super Tuesday.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Mortrialus said:
Can anyone post a list of vocally anti-gay democrat who was eventually revealed to be gay? I'm curious to see how they compare to gay anti-gay republicans who were ousted.
Click to expand...
I think part of the reason you only see gay/anti-gay Republicans is because the Democratic Party is (kind of) the party of LGBT. Gay Democrats have no reason to hide, except maybe in states like AR or WV where the local party still has power but is more conservative. Even then though, there's generally plenty of support for civil unions/adoption, so it's easier to toe the line with the Democrats than Republicans.
 
S

speculawyer

Member
Flying_Phoenix said:
Fucking A! Slash the military, socialize healthcare, rework the retirement.
Click to expand...
It is going to be hard for the USA to realize that it is the 'new U.K.'. We will need to let go of empire and focus on providing healthcare to our citizens and dealing with our aging population.

Don't worry folks. Absolutely NO ONE is going to fuck with us. But we don't have the money to be the world police.
 
F

Flying_Phoenix

Banned
speculawyer said:
It is going to be hard for the USA to realize that it is the 'new U.K.'. We will need to let go of empire and focus on providing healthcare to our citizens and dealing with our aging population.

Don't worry folks. Absolutely NO ONE is going to fuck with us. But we don't have the money to be the world police.
Click to expand...

The thing is though what country is going to replace us?

China? Possibly. But they have another 40 years or so.

India? Maybe in the next 80 years.

Brazil? Quite a ways away.

Europe? Only if the European Union becomes the European States of West Asia.

Chichikov said:
If you're curios about Nixon and got 3 hours to kill, go watch the nice American Experience about him.
Click to expand...

*Watches documentary at ~15 clip*
Nixon won, adding in inflation, around $100,000 from playing poker during wWorld War II? I find that hard to believe.
 
S

speculawyer

Member
Flying_Phoenix said:
The thing is though what country is going to replace us?
Click to expand...
That is the best thing. No one needs replace us. In fact 'us' hasn't really existed EVER as many think it has. Every successful major conflict has been a coalition. (WW1, WW2, Gulf war, Iraq war, Afghanistan, etc.) We need to stop thinking "It is us or no one". In fact Iraq proved that if it is mostly just us, it is a fuck-up.

Yeah, the UN is clusterfuck. But it is the best thing we have. And we can always set up coalitions outside of it if it is not working.
 
F

Flying_Phoenix

Banned
speculawyer said:
That is the best thing. No one needs replace us. In fact 'us' hasn't really existed EVER as many think it has. Every successful major conflict has been a coalition. (WW1, WW2, Gulf war, Iraq war, Afghanistan, etc.) We need to stop thinking "It is us or no one". In fact Iraq proved that if it is mostly just us, it is a fuck-up.

Yeah, the UN is clusterfuck. But it is the best thing we have. And we can always set up coalitions outside of it if it is not working.
Click to expand...

So the future will be a bunch of superpowers?

Like:

Tier 1: USA, Western Europe, China
Tier 2: Russia, India, Brazil
Tier 3:Iran, United or just South Korea, Turkey

Also while things have gotten done in coalition, the US clearly has a lot more power than I think you give it credit for.
 
B

Black Republican

Member
man i gotta say this parenthood, contraception, womens right stuff is playing right into obama's hand, the fact u got some republicans willing to vote obama again speaks for it self.

that clever fuck, heh
 
S

speculawyer

Member
empty vessel said:
Not legally.
Click to expand...

Like that has ever stopped us.

I'm more concerned about justice, not law. Surely you have heard the old saw "I could not provide him justice but only the law." Well, if we are occasionally able to serve justice outside of the law, that is not a bad thing.

However, as I'm sure you are thinking right now, we cannot use it as an excuse to go outside the law for any other reason.
 
T

ToxicAdam

Member
jobs.jpg
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Well, Iran just cut oil sales to France and Britain so oil prices are going to skyrocket this week, causing gas prices to rise as well.

This is really the only thing that could keep Obama out of a 2nd term right now.
 
L

Lucky Forward

Member
speculawyer said:
Oh Santorum. You are beyond fucking stupid.
Click to expand...

Santorum says Obama looks down on disabled, encouraging more abortions

"One of the things that you don't know about ObamaCare in one of the mandates is they require free prenatal testing," Santorum began telling about 400 people here. "Why? Because free prenatal testing ends up in more abortions and, therefore, less care that has to be done, because we cull the ranks of the disabled in our society. That too is part of ObamaCare -- another hidden message as to what president Obama thinks of those who are less able than the elites who want to govern our country."
Click to expand...
 
T

Tim-E

Member
What a piece of shit. At this point I don't care who wins the nomination, all of the candidates are running horrible campaigns and are just bad in general at being candidates, so I don't think Obama will have trouble against any of them as long as the economy continues to be back on track.

Romney may be a flip-flopping robot who cannot empathize with a normal human being, but I wouldnt call him a vile piece of shit like I'll happily do with Santorum.
 
P

PantherLotus

Professional Schmuck
Going back to the previous discussion for a moment, I do think part of America's hegemony is based on policing the world. Not for any philanthropic purposes, oh no. But because stable markets and the exploitation of resources are central to American business.

I know it makes my liberal brothers squeamish, but many of our comforts don't just come from awesome financial and regulatory prowess, but the continued support of American business by our military complex. I don't think it's feasible to just cut the military down to some more-manageable level, stop policing the world's conflict zones, and somehow just funnel the savings into helping our aging populace.

Obviously this discussion has to take place without considering the implications of our absence in various places throughout the world (like our nice new base we're putting in Australia just as China's gettin' all chummy), much less what the right thing to do actually is.
 
F

Flying_Phoenix

Banned
Plinko said:
Well, Iran just cut oil sales to France and Britain so oil prices are going to skyrocket this week, causing gas prices to rise as well.

This is really the only thing that could keep Obama out of a 2nd term right now.
Click to expand...

Every time you say this the opposite happens for my area.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Flying_Phoenix said:
So the future will be a bunch of superpowers?

Like:

Tier 1: USA, Western Europe, China
Tier 2: Russia, India, Brazil
Tier 3:Iran, United or just South Korea, Turkey

Also while things have gotten done in coalition, the US clearly has a lot more power than I think you give it credit for.
Click to expand...

Turkey is tier 1.
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
Gen. Dempsey - Israeli Strike on Iran "Not Prudent":

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/02/18/israel-strike-iran-martin-dempsey_n_1286961.html

"I think it would be premature to exclusively decide that the time for a military option was upon us," Dempsey added, according to early reports of the interview, noting that he sensed that increased sanctions were beginning to have an effect.
Click to expand...

In the war of words, American officials have repeatedly signaled that they do not believe military action is in anybody's best interests at this point, something Dempsey and Defense Secretary Leon Panetta sought to drive home in several appearances on Capitol Hill over the last several days, while also trying to tamp down the rhetoric coming from Israel.
Click to expand...

I am assuming since Republicans always accuse Obama of not listening to the generals, they will do so this time?

Oh wait, they didn't listen to the general who said we would need several hundred thousand soldiers for post war Iraq...
 
J

Jackson50

Member
Flying_Phoenix said:
So the future will be a bunch of superpowers?

Like:

Tier 1: USA, Western Europe, China
Tier 2: Russia, India, Brazil
Tier 3:Iran, United or just South Korea, Turkey

Also while things have gotten done in coalition, the US clearly has a lot more power than I think you give it credit for.
Click to expand...
No. As the world becomes increasingly interdependent, the concept of a superpower is becoming obsolescent. Even the most powerful states will rely on others to sustain their economy. This diminishes their ability to leverage economic and industrial capacities to shape the international order. Rather, the future will gradually evolve into a multipolar world with multiple great powers of varying strength. The U.S. will remain the premier great power for decades, although China may eventually ascend to a comparable position. They are the only state capable of approaching American primacy in our lifetime. Then we'll have the lesser great powers who can exert influence on a global scale, albeit from a weaker position relative to the U.S. and China. Brazil and India are obvious candidates. They possess considerable economic potential with fairly stable democratic regimes. If Russia can reverse its demographic stagnation and produce a stable political system, they should retain their relative power. Beyond the obvious candidates, I think Nigeria has tremendous potential; that's based on an extremely expansive horizon, mind you. Although, they're beset by sectarian fissures and other issues inhibiting their development; however, if they could solve them, the potential is great.
RustyNails said:
Turkey is tier 1.
Click to expand...
Turkey has tremendous potential. I'm rather bullish on their future. But they do not have the capacity to compete with the larger states.
 
S

Stinkles

Clothed, sober, cooperative
Diablos said:
What the fuck? I thought Iowa was a lock...
Click to expand...

It also shows Ron Paul ahead and beating Obama in the presidential race. So I think you can look at that poll and say, I HAVE NO IDEA WTF TO MAKE OF THIS. It's obviously not accurate with regards to real world outcomes.

Also had to sit and listen to the Michigan GOP Chairman claim with a straight face that the auto bailout both had nothing to do with GM and Chrysler recoveries, but also that even if it did, it was wrongly applied and accounted.

Fucking amazing.
 
J

Jackson50

Member
Plinko said:
This guy is melting down right now. It's almost as if he's trying to drive away every independent voter out there.

As a Christian, I'm disgusted at this stuff he's spewing right now. It's total garbage.
Click to expand...
Yeah. He has confirmed the perception of him being an unelectable extremist. If you have to clarify remarks on the authenticity of the president's faith, your message is terribly awry. And his remark regarding prenatal testing only compounds the damage. This may fly for strident conservatives. But it would alienate the general electorate. They don't see Obama as a faux Christian insidiously culling the disabled.
 
K

Kabouter

Member
Puddles said:
Tier 2 maybe. I don't see them ever rivaling the United States or China.
Click to expand...

Unlikely, with a projected population of around a hundred million by 2050, they would be 'tier 3' at best, insofar as influence and power can be measured in tiers like that. I also like how Japan is not even mentioned but South Korea, with half the projected population, is. Nor is Indonesia. Nor is Pakistan.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Similar threads

  • Locked
PoliGAF 2017 |OT6| Made this thread during Harvey because the ratings would be higher
338 339 340 341 342
17K
2M
UselessNapkin replied
  • Locked
PoliGAF 2017 |OT5| The Man In the High Chair
395 396 397 398 399
20K
2M
RDreamer replied
  • Locked
PoliGAF 2017 |OT4| The leaks are coming from inside the white house
396 397 398 399 400
20K
2M
ShironRedshift replied
  • Locked
PoliGAF 2017 |OT3| 13 Treasons Why
393 394 395 396 397
20K
2M
Zaraki_Kenpachi replied
  • Locked
Poligaf 2017 |OT| It Almost Isn't Fair
9
4K
Bonen no Max'd replied
Top Bottom