polyh3dron
Banned
He wrote and published a book which brought in some money but that's about it.
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PoliGAF 2012 |OT3| If it's not a legitimate OT the mods have ways to shut it down
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He wrote and published a book which brought in some money but that's about it.
I want a reporter to ask them who they plan to vote for.
Baffling. Everybody in this thread and a lot of people in the blogosphere has been saying the same thing. What's your beef with Pelosi? Do you just hate it when people think things?
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
I am not shamed enough to not register Republican, although that might change next time I have to "re-up" so to speak.
Voting in their primaries is a useful tool though if you want the party to change.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Marquette - Obama's leading by 14 in Wisconsin, Baldwin by 9.
Well guys.
Well guys.
That sounds ridiculous. How did Marquette do with the recall?
Rocket Scientist
Member
Fuck, I love Reid.
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
Unfortunately, I live in one of the reddest states in the country not named "The Retarded South"
I do enjoy voting in primaries, but usually the race is a forgone conclusion by that time anyway.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Baldwin!!!
(PPP just tweeted that the GOP will probably be happy with their presidential numbers)
Gay marriage numbers from Maine tomorrow from PPP.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Most accurate pollster of the recall. I don't know what to make of this though. Obama bring makes sense, but by 14? Same with Baldwin up nearly double digits? It's hard to believe, I need to see the sample distribution
Nate Silver was marveling at how crazy state polls are looking right now. Something crazy is happening
Aaron Strife
Banned
Her name is Baldwin, not Baldlose :sunglasses
They said GOP will be pushing their numbers. That could mean that their numbers are better for the GOP on balance than Marquette's, even if they're still not very good. They also said Obama looks better than in their last poll where he was up 1 (and the first poll to show Baldwin leading).
Would you be saying this if Romney were up 14 and Thompson was up 9?PhoenixDark said:
Though I'll admit I'm skeptical. I think Baldwin and Obama will win but by much closer margins.
Nate's tweet is hilarious:
You can tell this is frustrating. Obama by all rights should be down by 5 on the economy alone. Romney is so atrocious his downfall defies all conventional logic.
Baraka in the White House
2-Terms of Kombat
Could be a Romney comeback.
Interesting. They said this:
Last night he tweeted that Obama was doing better than their last poll there, so I'm guessing it might be a comment on the other poll just out - PPP will show movement for Obama, but not a 14 point spread.
I don't see anything on their twitter feed
Thagomizer
Member
So based on these polls, Romney's Libya kerfuffle and this 47% comment is actually helping him?
The fuck America
The fuck America
cartoon_soldier
Member
I will agree with Nate. Polls are not making any sense to me.
But they all show one thing, Obama is either ahead just slightly or by a decent amount, but he is ahead.
Well, except for Ras. If Ras is the most accurate pollster in 2012, Romney will win.
47% is hardly factored into these polls.
As for Libya, I never underestimate the strength of Muslim based fear mongering. But remember, this is also the time you see the post convention bounce dissapear.
But they all show one thing, Obama is either ahead just slightly or by a decent amount, but he is ahead.
Well, except for Ras. If Ras is the most accurate pollster in 2012, Romney will win.
47% is hardly factored into these polls.
As for Libya, I never underestimate the strength of Muslim based fear mongering. But remember, this is also the time you see the post convention bounce dissapear.
It's more likely Obama's convention bump is fading. The 47 stuff hasn't been polled yet.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Yeah he's probably actually up by 10. He is running the perfect campaign after all.
Marquette says if their polls were fitted to the average partisan ID they've found throughout the year, Obama would be up 8 and Baldwin up 5. Which is still more plausible but DAMN!
Wisconsin, vanguard of the new conservative revolution. Walker and Ryan, the saviors of the national party.
But where is your cold, serpentine God now, WI GOP?
One possibility is that we're hitting a sampling problem -- as Nate notes, the polls that show Obama doing well use cell phones and live interviewers, the polls where he's falling off don't.
But at the same time, I think that it's dangerous to assume that Colorado is a swing state in the same way that Virginia is, such that an improvement in Virginia and a deterioration in Colorado is contradictory. Colorado's been moving apart from the trend all year. If the GOP coalition is reorienting, as it might seem to be, then you'd expect some swing states to become heavy leaners in one direction or the other.
That said, 14 up in Wisconsin is...implausible? But I'll note it's a poll conducted entirely after the Libya remarks and the presser. Does anybody have the crosstabs? I can't find a link to the actual results anywhere.
PhoenixDark
Banned
If Romney was up 14 in Wis I wouldn't believe it either. I think it makes sense that Obama is up. Romney got a bump dud to Ryan, now it's going back to the 3-5 point norm.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Must be a cross market from another state.
NihonTiger90
Member
Ohio?
It does cross over into southern Ohio, which has some coal mining areas, but I don't think there was any chance of Obama winning those areas anyway.
This sounds like how I feel most of the time. I despise the constant partisan and ideological bickering .
I try to identify as a moderate on most things, but I'm quite socially liberal (which seems pretty common around here anyway).
cartoon_soldier
Member
Or VA.
cartoon_soldier
Member
As for the polls, it looks like we now have to pretty much dive into the methodology, breakdown, etc of the polls. Compare with 2008/2010 turnout and figure out which would be good to follow.
lol
lol
The only explanation for the way the Romney camp has been acting for quite some time is that they have some internal polling showing huge trouble for Romney among working-class Appalachian whites (epicenter, WV). Maybe it just shows that they don't want to come out to vote for Mitt, not that they'll vote for Obama of course. If they were actually moving towards Obama there would be actual suicides in the Romney campaign at this point.
But Romney's [theoretical] Appalachian problem is not really aout West Virginia, but rather western Virginia, southeast Ohio, western Pennsylvania, western North Carolina. These are the areas Mitt needs to run up the score in to keep Obama at bay. And the campaign's actions betray a lack of confidence that they're going to get the turnout they need in those regions.
Pew has Obama 51% Romney 43% among likely voters
http://www.people-press.org/2012/09...support-better-image-and-lead-on-most-issues/
http://www.people-press.org/2012/09...support-better-image-and-lead-on-most-issues/
A lot of people around here identify as democrat, but mostly due to labor issues. In terms of social issues and of course in energy they're going further to the right. I've talked to a lot of people around here that absolutely hate Romney, but they'll take him over the Marxist Kenyan Brother of Islam.
West Virginia airtime is cheaper than Ohio and Virginia airtime by a wide margin and overlaps well into both states.
Aaron Strife
Banned
BotoxAgent
Member
Man, Romney is cratering 
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
Not true.
At least in 2008, the demographics by voting skewed this way:
I am not saying that poor people don't vote against their interests, they most certainly do, but they definitely skew deomcratic across the country outside of backwater places like West Virginia.
Less undecideds? :shrug:
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
Seems like he's been mostly talking about how they aren't moving in unison, rather than the factors which should be moving them up or down.
CNN headline (tv, not online): Fast & Furious report just released. Finds Attorney General Holder not responsible. "The information did not make its way to the Attorney General." They reported it as a measure of "vindication" for Holder.
Not that it'll convince the strong believers of anything, but as a media spectacle it might be over with. Can't wait for the GOP's next failed attempt to nail the Obama Admin on a scandal.
Not that it'll convince the strong believers of anything, but as a media spectacle it might be over with. Can't wait for the GOP's next failed attempt to nail the Obama Admin on a scandal.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
hey guys, settle down. polls are lagging indicators.
cartoon_soldier
Member
The Kosmo signal has been turned on.
Will Holder stay on for a presumptive second Obama term? That's a thankless job and I couldn't blame him if he left.
Aaron Strife
Banned
If you count Rasmussen as a credible pollster I can see why you'd be confused.
The day's polling is overall definitely strong for Obama despite the outliers. If Obama has States like Ohio and Virginia in his column, a State like Florida leaning his way by a hair, but not States like North Carolina and Indiana, then he's probably at +4% nationally. If he was up 7%+ like last time, he'd be getting enough at the margins to again capture States like North Carolina, the fact that he's not getting them but has Ohio, Virginia, and maybe Florida points to a roughly 4% margin.
StopMakingSense
Member
Wasn't the Marquette Poll the one eznark was telling us to wait for?
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