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PoliGAF 2012 |OT3| If it's not a legitimate OT the mods have ways to shut it down

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AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
My hope for 2013-2016:


- Higher taxes across the board.
- Responsible decrease in military spending (Bad - shutting down bases all over the country (would destroy local economies, Good - shutting down bases in countries that we do not need to be in anymore, like England, Japan, Germany, etc. Bad - reducing benefits to current serviceman and veterans, Good - not buying those expensive ass new jets and tanks on tow. etc etc.)
- Heavy infrastructure spending. Communities that are smart enough to do mass transit systems will have federal dollars matched, etc.
- No new wars.
- Reduce our insane deficits (light the EV Bat signal!) by bringing the budget down to a reasonable level.
- legalize and tax the shit out of marijuana. Barring this, medical marijuana should be legalized federally and then left up to states to decide how they want to implement that.
 
My hope for 2013-2016:


- Higher taxes across the board.
- Responsible decrease in military spending (Bad - shutting down bases all over the country (would destroy local economies, Good - shutting down bases in countries that we do not need to be in anymore, like England, Japan, Germany, etc. Bad - reducing benefits to current serviceman and veterans, Good - not buying those expensive ass new jets and tanks on tow. etc etc.)
- Heavy infrastructure spending. Communities that are smart enough to do mass transit systems will have federal dollars matched, etc.
- No new wars.
- Reduce our insane deficits (light the EV Bat signal!) by bringing the budget down to a reasonable level.
- legalize and tax the shit out of marijuana. Barring this, medical marijuana should be legalized federally and then left up to states to decide how they want to implement that.
That would take at least ten years at the most optimistic forecast of doing. Frankly the vast majority of those countries still want us there, so it's not like we have any real reason to leave other than for budgetary reasons.
 

reilo

learning some important life lessons from magical Negroes
Those bases exist for strategic deployment and training purposes, and not because we need to keep a watchful eye on Germany going Nazi again.

Chill out, he's not flopping on this one. Took a few reads to get what he was saying, he's not the clearest speaker.

But the sentence before says that he wants to cut taxes.
 

Jackson50

Member
Secretaries of State don't usually go two terms. There's exceptions, like Warren Christopher doing a short run with Carter and another with Clinton, but I don't think anyone's served more than four years in a row since FDR.

EDIT: Whoops, forgot about Shultz under Reagan.

EDIT AGAIN: And Dean Rusk for JFK/LBJ.
Also, John Foster Dulles served in Eisenhower's two terms, although he died during the second.
OK, let's move to November 7th, Obama gets re-elected. What do those voting for him expect from his next term, both in the near and long term? What would he need to do for you to consider it a success? What would be a failure?
I'll wait for the outcome of the Congressional elections before I delineate my ideal domestic agenda. Presently, Democrats have fair prospects at unified government, perhaps they're slight underdogs, so a more ambitious domestic agenda is possible.

For foreign policy, I have a few goals:

First, end the quagmire in Afghanistan. The costs are not commensurate with realistic goals.
Second, pass the CTBT and UN Convention on the Law of the Sea.
Third, accelerate the pivot towards Asia and make a concerted effort to further integrate our traditional allies. The tension between South Korea and Japan, which scuttled an intelligence pact in June, is a major hitch in our Asia-Pacific strategy.

Obama will not be deprived of numerous opportunities and challenges.
 

Effect

Member
Anybody watch in the NFL in here? How are the campaign ads?

Here in Central FL, the Romney campaign is airing about a 3:1 ratio to the Obama campaign. I swear, there were a few commerical breaks that were all political ads. The Repubs are pumping a lot of $$ here.

Should be interesting to see the polling coming out of Florida if there is one over the next several days. Really curious if all this money by Romney ends up being a waste. His did this in the primary and I recall it being said by the end people were sick of it. Curious if it backfires this time around with this being the second wave for that state.
 
Those bases exist for strategic deployment and training purposes, and not because we need to keep a watchful eye on Germany going Nazi again.

At the same time, why do we need bases in Germany *and* the UK (do we even have a major deployment in the UK?)?

I would think that reconciling our foreign bases would keep strategic regional outposts (i.e. Germany as a gateway for supplies, soldiers to the M.E., Japan in Asia) while cutting costs.
 

pigeon

Banned
Sooo much easier said than done. It's going to be gruesome after November if Obama wins. High probability of letting all the tax cuts expire.

And the fiscial cliff isn't the only thing – the debt ceiling comes up early 2013. I wonder how that's going to get solved, though I do think there's a high probability Obama will raise it himself.

I guess I'm in the minority here, but I really don't believe that the GOP will be able to sustain its steadfast opposition when they know they need to be reinventing themselves if they want to win a presidential election ever again. At the absolute minimum I expect enough Republicans to break ranks to get this stuff done, probably with some horse trading here or there (for example, the Bush tax cuts on millionaires aren't actually important to get rid of except ideologically, so they're a nice potential trade for a deal on sequestration or the debt ceiling).
 
OK, let's move to November 7th, Obama gets re-elected. What do those voting for him expect from his next term, both in the near and long term? What would he need to do for you to consider it a success? What would be a failure?

Honestly, just him serving out his entire second term without the GOP trying to impeach him over...something (I don't know, tax cuts expiring) would be enough for me. I know that's an extraordinarily low bar, and kind of (but not really) conspiracy-minded, but the extremes that the Republicans have gone to in the name of obstruction Obama's presidency have made me cynical.

And if he does anything more than survive? That's just icing on the cake, considering how much he accomplished during his first term.

(Also, hello, PoliGAF! Hope you don't mind a Canadian posting in here.)
 

demon

I don't mean to alarm you but you have dogs on your face
2. Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg --> Justice Leah Ward Sears
Why? Because women are 51% of the population and the court should reflect that.

I don't really see that as a legitimate reason to appoint someone to the supreme court but whatever floats your boat.
 

scorcho

testicles on a cold fall morning
For foreign policy, I have a few goals:

First, end the quagmire in Afghanistan. The costs are not commensurate with realistic goals.
Second, pass the CTBT and UN Convention on the Law of the Sea.
Third, accelerate the pivot towards Asia and make a concerted effort to further integrate our traditional allies. The tension between South Korea and Japan, which scuttled an intelligence pact in June, is a major hitch in our Asia-Pacific strategy.

Obama will not be deprived of numerous opportunities and challenges.

Yep. Obama needs to continue shifting our grand strategy away from the ME and GWOT towards old fashioned realpolitik in Asia.

I admit to being nervous about Israel over the next few months. The increase in targeted killings and digital espionage a la Stuxnet, Duku and Wiper points towards a more desparate Nety rolling these 'successes' into an actual strike regardless of American approval.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
The awkward double negative aside, that's not contradicting what comes after. He's saying the problem isn't lack of tax revenue, but high spending and low economic growth.

Pretty much this, the double negative makes the sentence hard to read. He's just not that good a communicator, the debates are going to be fun to watch.
 

Jackson50

Member
Those bases exist for strategic deployment and training purposes, and not because we need to keep a watchful eye on Germany going Nazi again.



But the sentence before says that he wants to cut taxes.
We're already reducing our military resources in Western Europe. It would be foolhardy to eliminate them entirely, though. For a region that's strategically integrated with the U.S., primarily through NATO, it's essential we maintain a military presence. And to speak to AlteredBeast's point, Obama is not going to shut down military bases in Japan. That's diametric to his defense guidance which proposes the need to expand our presence in Asia; this includes re-opening military facilities in the Philippines, rotational naval deployments in Singapore, and a rotation deployment of marines in Australia. And with good reason, too. Asia's received short shrift in American strategy until recently.
Yep. Obama needs to continue shifting our grand strategy away from the ME and GWOT towards old fashioned realpolitik in Asia.

I admit to being nervous about Israel over the next few months. The increase in targeted killings and digital espionage a la Stuxnet, Duku and Wiper points towards a more desparate Nety rolling these 'successes' into an actual strike regardless of American approval.
Unfortunately, the ME is going to remain a primary focus of foreign policy; if his strategic guidance is accurate, at least. Otherwise, yes, it's imperative the shift continues, and I hope it's accelerated.
 
Wait, what?!

Conservatives like to trot out the (misleading) statistic that 50 percent of the people aren't paying any taxes. Namely the poor. They still want breaks for the wealthy, but also "tax fairness" in the form of a flat tax etc so that people under the poverty line pay more.
 
Everything that needs to be said has already been said, but I'll add a few more

  1. Obama essentially needs to say fuck you to Republicans if Dems retake the house. If not, still fuck 'em, but more tactfully
  2. IF POSSIBLE, getting rid of the fillibuster the moment an oppurtunity presents itslef
  3. Infrastructure spending. At least a 1.3 trillion of it over the next decade.
  4. If possible, bring the Public Option back full force.
  5. Appoint Liberal Judges with decency and common sense
  6. Overturn Citizen's United. Maybe not a constitutional amendment as that's virtually impossible, but do SOMETHING to get rid of that POS law

And that's pretty much all I got.

If that passes through in entirety, pretty sure teaparty groups will become militarized and will overthrow Comrade Obama.
 

Triple U

Banned
At the same time, why do we need bases in Germany *and* the UK (do we even have a major deployment in the UK?)?

I would think that reconciling our foreign bases would keep strategic regional outposts (i.e. Germany as a gateway for supplies, soldiers to the M.E., Japan in Asia) while cutting costs.

Those bases aren't really "ours". A lot of those bases in the UK are co-owned by the RAF/RA and supports their missions as well as ours. They are strategic NATO points used for refueling, aerial combat deployment spots, recon hot spots etc.

You must remember that as a member of NATO the US has certain obligations and the last thing the US wants to do is piss off some of the countries and militaries who are right besides ours losing there lives doing our mission in places like Afghanistan and Libya .

Basically I don't think you have a grasp of what is actually going on overseas at these locations.
 

AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
That would take at least ten years at the most optimistic forecast of doing. Frankly the vast majority of those countries still want us there, so it's not like we have any real reason to leave other than for budgetary reasons.

Then start now. Hell, start yesterday.

If they want us there, they can pay us to be there. We are basically acting as their military presence in some sense of the word. If they want us there, start ponying up cash, if not, it is exactly for those budgetary reasons that we should leave. We don't need to play world police.
 
JANSING: What are the loopholes you would close? Will you tell the American people how you’re going to to this better place that you say they have?
WALL: Well, again, the campaign has laid out a number of specifics relative to the principles that will guide the policies of a Romney-Ryan ticket. [...] Again, the specification include policies that are pro-growth in nature, that reduce the deficit, that reduce the burden on taxpayers and small businesses, small businesses number one have been hit hard by a number of regulations that have stifled growth and job creation. And so number one, those are some of the things you have to start with.

JANSING: Well, with all due respect, a pro-growth policy is not specific.

WALL: The other part of that is energy independence. That’s an approach to energy independence that will create millions of jobs. There is a target of 12 million jobs by the Romney-Ryan target.
Relative to those loopholes that you mention, I agree that Congressman Ryan pointed out taht have to be put out in a public debate. But I think, again, we have to look at the overall principles that are going to drive the policies and not ram through policy as we saw with Obamacare.

Answering a question about closing loopholes by talking about energy independence. WOW!
 
Those bases aren't really "ours". A lot of those bases in the UK are co-owned by the RAF/RA and supports their missions as well as ours. They are strategic NATO points used for refueling, aerial combat deployment spots, recon hot spots etc.

You must remember that as a member of NATO the US has certain obligations and the last thing the US wants to do is piss off some of the countries and militaries who are right besides ours losing there lives doing our mission in places like Afghanistan and Libya .

Basically I don't think you have a grasp of what is actually going on overseas at these locations.

That's fine, but if they are NATO obligations, then let the NATO allies take ownership of those operations (i.e. contract refueling) and consolidate.

I'm not saying we should not have overseas military presence, but that we should consolidate these bases to reduce costs (i.e. fuel, supply chain management, etc.)
 
So now Romney is saying he's not going to be giving big tax cuts to wealthy people? Whaaaaaaaaaaaat?

“And I want to make sure people understand, despite what the Democrats said at their convention, I am not reducing taxes on high income taxpayers.”

Again, dude should scrub his website.

"Make permanent, across-the-board 20 percent cut in marginal rates"

He's saying he's cutting marginal rates and reducing deductions to make them even but with lower marginal rates.

The funny thing here is, besides that the math doesn't work, is why bother? If you're not cutting taxes in net effect on the wealthy, this completely undercuts the argument that lowering the tax rates would increase investments since they have the exact same money!

Of course, their "numbers" only make sense if the economy grows in the future (by a nonsensical rate, but nonetheless). Which means that the "revenue-neutral" bit is in the LONG TERM not short. Cutting taxes would drive up the deficit in the short term since the economy factor isn't in play the 1st year (or fee really).

So they HAVE to be cutting deficits on the rich in the short term and driving up deficits if they're not raising taxes on the middle class simultaneously. There is no other way for this to work. 1st year revenue-neutral tax cuts on the wealthy marginal rates is like dividing by zero.


Answering a question about closing loopholes by talking about energy independence. WOW!

George Snuppleofogus called out Ryan on the 12 million jobs telling him this is predicted by independent analysis based on the current path with Obama or with anyone else. Ryan bumbled through the answer badly. Was remarkable.
 
That's fine, but if they are NATO obligations, then let the NATO allies take ownership of those operations (i.e. contract refueling) and consolidate.

I'm not saying we should not have overseas military presence, but that we should consolidate these bases to reduce costs (i.e. fuel, supply chain management, etc.)

Which is essentially what they did in Libya. Remember France was one of the leading members of the NFZ.

Unfortunately, they had to rely on a lot of materiel from US forces, which called into question their military capability without US help.
 
Also, they keep parroting the 12 million jobs thing, but haven't a few economists said that's pretty much the default of what we'd gain by not changing a damned thing?

Yup, that's what I said above. Moody's has it at 12 million, for example.

George Snupplofogus even said something to Ryan like "but if they're already predicting 12 million, then you're not giving a pro-growth plan." or something like that.

Ryan looked so unprepared.

http://abcnews.go.com/ThisWeek/video/paul-ryan-week-17195027

This whole interview went bad and George wasn't even aggressive enough.
 

Gotchaye

Member
Yup, that's what I said above. Moody's has it at 12 million, for example.

George Snupplofogus even said something to Ryan like "but if they're already predicting 12 million, then you're not giving a pro-growth plan." or something like that.

Ryan looked so unprepared.

http://abcnews.go.com/ThisWeek/video/paul-ryan-week-17195027

This whole interview went bad and George wasn't even aggressive enough.

Watching this now. Geez, he's dodging so fast it's like watching The Matrix.
 

RDreamer

Member
Yup, that's what I said above. Moody's has it at 12 million, for example.

George Snupplofogus even said something to Ryan like "but if they're already predicting 12 million, then you're not giving a pro-growth plan." or something like that.

Ryan looked so unprepared.

http://abcnews.go.com/ThisWeek/video/paul-ryan-week-17195027

This whole interview went bad and George wasn't even aggressive enough.

Holy christ this is a trainwreck. How can anyone watch this and not think this guy's a lying sack of crap that doesn't know what he's talking about. "The economists are saying that's the amount of jobs we'll get already." "No." Well ok then, Paul. "Don't people deserve to know what you're going to do? Isn't this a secret plan?" "No, we don't want a secret plan!" Fuck....

Also, anyone notice he starts to get slightly angry whenever someone even nudges him off his talking points?
 

kehs

Banned
Yup, that's what I said above. Moody's has it at 12 million, for example.

George Snupplofogus even said something to Ryan like "but if they're already predicting 12 million, then you're not giving a pro-growth plan." or something like that.

Ryan looked so unprepared.

http://abcnews.go.com/ThisWeek/video/paul-ryan-week-17195027

This whole interview went bad and George wasn't even aggressive enough.

Ryan was selected to take the heat of Romney, he appears to answer intelligently even if it doesn't hold any substance.
 

Clevinger

Member
Yup, that's what I said above. Moody's has it at 12 million, for example.

George Snupplofogus even said something to Ryan like "but if they're already predicting 12 million, then you're not giving a pro-growth plan." or something like that.

Ryan looked so unprepared.

http://abcnews.go.com/ThisWeek/video/paul-ryan-week-17195027

This whole interview went bad and George wasn't even aggressive enough.

I love his little throat clear every time he gets a question he doesn't like.
 
Yup, that's what I said above. Moody's has it at 12 million, for example.

George Snupplofogus even said something to Ryan like "but if they're already predicting 12 million, then you're not giving a pro-growth plan." or something like that.

Ryan looked so unprepared.

http://abcnews.go.com/ThisWeek/video/paul-ryan-week-17195027

This whole interview went bad and George wasn't even aggressive enough.
Mitt's campaign must be hitting themselves over the head for not choosing T-Paw or Rob Portman. That was horrendous.
 

richiek

steals Justin Bieber DVDs
OK, let's move to November 7th, Obama gets re-elected. What do those voting for him expect from his next term, both in the near and long term? What would he need to do for you to consider it a success? What would be a failure?

If the Dems retake the House and hold onto the Senate, filibuster reform is ABSOLUTELY essential.
 

Snake

Member
Just seeing the updated % of victory on 538 from last night. Romney's below 20% on each predictor. Oh man. What was the likelihood on that chart of Obama winning the day of the election in 2008?

Nate's model is designed to reach 100% for a candidate by election day, and if I recall correctly Obama did indeed have a rating of 100% to win on Nov. 4 2008.

Keep in mind that the stakes get bigger and bigger in Nate's model as we approach the endzone. If there's a series of reliable polls showing good numbers for Mitt in swing states, the overall forecast can change drastically. I'm still bracing myself for that kind of moment, but I figured it would have come after the RNC, and as we all know..!!
 
Heres what Im excited for in the debates.


You know the republican line "Obama cant run on his record"?

Theyve been repeating it every day. Im sure they know its not true, but they repeat it because it sounds good.

But most republican talking points end up in a cycle where they say it so much they truly believe it.

So I cant wait for romney or ryan, in their debate to say it.

Mitt: "I, Mitt Romney, am proud of what Ive done, while Barack here cant run on his record, hes running from it"

At which point Obama or Biden simply start listing things.

Obama: "Mitt is wrong. I am proud of my record. I passes ACA, which is now affectionatly known as Obamacare. Im proud of that, and run on that. I ended the war in Iraq and brought the kids home, Im running on that and am proud of it. My record includes eliminating Osama and Quadaffi, which Im proud of. My record shows that I saved the car companies and put into place a stimulus that built bridges and schools around america. I signed a nuclear treaty with russia, and have pushed china to increase in value their currency. I abolished DODT and passed what I could of the dream act. Taking into account the obstructionist, do nothing republican congress, Ive passed so much I and the american people can be proud of. Thats my record mitt, and youre wrong, I am absolutly running on it, which is why Im beating you in every poll"

Mitt: "yeah, well, you said 59 states"
 

AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
Heres what Im excited for in the debates.


You know the republican line "Obama cant run on his record"?

Theyve been repeating it every day. Im sure they know its not true, but they repeat it because it sounds good.

But most republican talking points end up in a cycle where they say it so much they truly believe it.

So I cant wait for romney or ryan, in their debate to say it.

Mitt: "I, Mitt Romney, am proud of what Ive done, while Barack here cant run on his record, hes running from it"

At which point Obama or Biden simply start listing things.

Obama: "Mitt is wrong. I am proud of my record. I passes ACA, which is now affectionatly known as Obamacare. Im proud of that, and run on that. I ended the war in Iraq and brought the kids home, Im running on that and am proud of it. My record includes eliminating Osama and Quadaffi, which Im proud of. My record shows that I saved the car companies and put into place a stimulus that built bridges and schools around america. I signed a nuclear treaty with russia, and have pushed china to increase in value their currency. I abolished DODT and passed what I could of the dream act. Taking into account the obstructionist, do nothing republican congress, Ive passed so much I and the american people can be proud of. Thats my record mitt, and youre wrong, I am absolutly running on it, which is why Im beating you in every poll"

Mitt: "yeah, well, you said 59 states"

Holy crap, did happy tears fall onto your Che Guevara shirt while you typed this?
 

Tim-E

Member
Some folks on this very board have been overestimating how well he'll do against Biden in the debates.

I think people also underestimate just how knowledgeable Biden is. Dude was a senator for 36 years and has been a public servant for as long as Paul Ryan has been alive. People think that just because he misspeaks and has a gaffe here and there that he's an idiot. In 2008 he fought with kid gloves against Palin. He is not going to be so nice to Ryan.
 

Guevara

Member
medium.jpg


Full page ad in Sunday's Washington Post.

Oh please oh please.
 
Heres what Im excited for in the debates.


You know the republican line "Obama cant run on his record"?

Theyve been repeating it every day. Im sure they know its not true, but they repeat it because it sounds good.

But most republican talking points end up in a cycle where they say it so much they truly believe it.

So I cant wait for romney or ryan, in their debate to say it.

Mitt: "I, Mitt Romney, am proud of what Ive done, while Barack here cant run on his record, hes running from it"

At which point Obama or Biden simply start listing things.

Obama: "Mitt is wrong. I am proud of my record. I passes ACA, which is now affectionatly known as Obamacare. Im proud of that, and run on that. I ended the war in Iraq and brought the kids home, Im running on that and am proud of it. My record includes eliminating Osama and Quadaffi, which Im proud of. My record shows that I saved the car companies and put into place a stimulus that built bridges and schools around america. I signed a nuclear treaty with russia, and have pushed china to increase in value their currency. I abolished DODT and passed what I could of the dream act. Taking into account the obstructionist, do nothing republican congress, Ive passed so much I and the american people can be proud of. Thats my record mitt, and youre wrong, I am absolutly running on it, which is why Im beating you in every poll"

Mitt: "yeah, well, you said 59 states"
God I want this to happen so badly.
 

RDreamer

Member
I think people also underestimate just how knowledgeable Biden is. Dude was a senator for 36 years and has been a public servant for as long as Paul Ryan has been alive. People think that just because he misspeaks and has a gaffe here and there that he's an idiot. In 2008 he fought with kid gloves against Palin. He is not going to be so nice to Ryan.

If I was the Obama campaign I'd put a ton of pressure on Biden to practice and really prepare for that debate. Sure it's just a VP debate, but if he annihilates Ryan it'd be on headlines everywhere. If I was Obama I'd just say to Biden "Don't hold back. I want him to be metaphorically limping out of that room when you're done with him."

I also think if Biden actually does have presidential aspirations then that debate is pretty crucial for him.
 

Particle Physicist

between a quark and a baryon
I dunno. He appears to me to be getting slightly frustrated every time he's not allowed to just repeat Pro-Growth Policies™


lol every other word was growth.

I'm starting to think that they seriously don't have any plans at all. Their whole argument is that they are the right people for the job cause of their experience and they will figure things out once they get into the white house. Wow.
 
Question. Why is Alaska a red state? Everything on the west coast is blue but that. Granted it's far north and connected to Canada but what would exactly cause it be so red?
Especially since the state is already socialist. You get money from the state government just for living there!

There was a really good ytmnd back in 2008 that had a bunch of these looped with a jazz song in the background
I love that. I'm surprised Republicans never made any noise about his language in his books or used clips out of context. I guess, like the eating dog meat story, few of them ever read it to notice.

*

Why don't Republicans ever bring up the Supreme Court and how important it is to stop Obama from replacing retiring Justices with activist librul judges? Am I just not hearing this from my usual sources?

I'd also like to thank Kosmo for returning to the thread and asking a substantive question, instead of driving by with another false equivalency. The thread has been a congratulatory celebration for about 10 pages with no dissent.
 

Forever

Banned
If I was the Obama campaign I'd put a ton of pressure on Biden to practice and really prepare for that debate. Sure it's just a VP debate, but if he annihilates Ryan it'd be on headlines everywhere. If I was Obama I'd just say to Biden "Don't hold back. I want him to be metaphorically limping out of that room when you're done with him."

I also think if Biden actually does have presidential aspirations then that debate is pretty crucial for him.

I hope Biden doesn't try too hard and end up overreaching.

Why don't Republicans ever bring up the Supreme Court and how important it is to stop Obama from replacing retiring Justices with activist librul judges? Am I just not hearing this from my usual sources?

It'd play into the War on Women narrative, Mitt Romney is a Mormon, and after the Roberts Betrayalton I don't think they have much faith in their own nominees.
 
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