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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.

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S

Souldriver

Member
Dax01 said:
Once again proving he is Best Tweeter.

HDszP.png
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Once again proving my inability to read twitter. I have no idea who this is, who he is talking to, and who says what. @@@@@ ###


"#
 
M

markatisu

Member
Diablos said:
Looks like the media is still having fun rubbing Romney's back. That ABC/WaPo poll spin is infuriating. Fuckers.
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Less than a month left, have to keep that narrative up.

Its why I guarantee you Obama won't "win" either debate. At best he will tie or rile his base up enough to not lose but they want a close election
 
D

Downhome

Member
Feel free to inform me - that PA poll looks good for Obama to me, as of right now. That's a nice 7 point lead for him. Is that less than what people expected? How much higher "should" it be, if any?

It looks like Obama won PA by 10+ last time, so I assume that is where people expected him to be this go round too...
 
D

Diablos

Member
The Weekly Standard discrediting the ABC News/WaPo poll:

The newly released Washington Post/ABC News poll of likely voters says that if the election were held today, Democrats would enjoy a 9-point advantage over Republicans in voter turnout (35 to 26 percent), and President Obama would beat Mitt Romney by 3 percentage points (49 to 46 percent). The good news for Romney is that, to be able to cut a 9-point disadvantage in voter turnout to just a 3-point deficit in votes, he must be doing awfully well with independents. The bad news for Obama is that it’s very hard to find corroborating evidence of this massive Democratic edge.
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http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/wapoabc-huge-phantom-democratic-edge-boosts-obama_654529.html
It's a top result for news when googling for it btw. Asshats.

Downhome said:
Feel free to inform me - that PA poll looks good for Obama to me, as of right now. That's a nice 7 point lead for him. Is that less than what people expected? How much higher "should" it be, if any?
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It's right where I expected it to be, actually a bit higher. Realistically, again, I think we're looking at +4-6 Obama in PA on election day. My county (Allegheny) in Western PA will go for Obama, but the surrounding counties that have gone Democratic in the past probably won't, so he'll have to make up the difference in Philly, its suburbs, and parts of southeastern PA. Basically, Philly always delivers for Dems here given its population and heavy Democratic lean by default. Hence being the reason why Voter ID was a suppression effort for folks in those areas who may not have a license and thus would get confused over what's required to vote.
 
C

Crisco

Banned
It's interesting that Ohio and PA seem to polling more and more closely. That's gotta be scary for Republicans going forward in future elections.
 
M

markatisu

Member
Crisco said:
It's interesting that Ohio and PA seem to polling more and more closely. That's gotta be scary for Republicans going forward in future elections.
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Well they pretty much lost the Midwest (OH,IA,WI,MN,MI) and both coasts, if they begin to lose FL on a routine basis or anymore of the SW it is going to hurt big time
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
markatisu said:
Well they pretty much lost the Midwest (OH,IA,WI,MN,MI) and both coasts, if they begin to lose FL on a routine basis or anymore of the SW it is going to hurt big time
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We'll get to find out in a few weeks if there's any substance to this "the polls may be under-representing the Hispanic vote" theory. If CO/NV/NM are gone for good (with AZ close behind), that's going to sting.
 
L

Loudninja

Member
Florida
For the first time, we have some good data in this all-important swing state. In-person early voting doesn’t start until Oct. 27, but according to the Miami Herald, about 284,000 people have cast absentee ballots so far (about 3.4 percent of the total 2008 turnout). And the breakdown is pretty evenly split — 44 percent Republican and 40 percent Democrat.
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Indeed, Republicans generally perform better among absentee voters than among in-person early voters. So it’s not surprising to see Republicans winning the absentee vote in Florida or other states. The question is by how much.
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In-person early voting is generally a much bigger piece of the pie than absentee voting when it comes to the early vote, but Florida Republicans reduced the amount of time that in-person early voting is available.
Because of that smaller window, it appears that Democrats are running a more aggressive absentee ballot program, and it seems to be paying off.
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http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs.../why-the-early-vote-looks-good-for-democrats/
 
J

Jackson50

Member
PhoenixDark said:
He spent a lot of time there in the summer despite polls showing him down big even then; seems like they're trying to make another move there this month. And of course most famously, McCain was trolled into wasting a lot of time and money there - even in October.
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Do you have data on the first point? Maybe he did spend an inordinate amount of time there, although I wouldn't be surprised if he made a few appearances given its proximity to Ohio. However, the dearth of field offices and total absence of advertising is highly suggestive that Romney has surrendered the state. Although, I'm sure they'll make a few token appearances.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Diablos said:
Whew.

That's quite different than the Morning Call poll, and PPP also has Casey leading Smith by 11. Wonder who's more credible here, .
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Don't pick one to focus on. Look at the aggregate.
Loudninja said:
Florida

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs.../why-the-early-vote-looks-good-for-democrats/
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Seems the reduced voting hours might just end up being a balloon squeeze with absentee voting. But they can't cut that without eating into the GOP constituency of seniors. Whoops.
 
R

RDreamer

Member
From that Washington Post article:
A Republican National Committee memo last week cited its their edge in absentee ballots in a number of states, including Florida. But you need to look at those numbers in context. The Herald’s Marc Caputo notes that, at this point in 2008, Republicans had a 16-point advantage in absentee ballots and still lost the state. Today, that advantage is just four points.
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Wow, that's pretty good. I still think Romney's going to win Florida (but not by much). Doesn't make much sense why, since Obama seems to be winning on the Medicare thing, and he should be able to run some awesome medicare ads against Romney...
 
M

markatisu

Member
Loudninja said:
Florida

In-person early voting is generally a much bigger piece of the pie than absentee voting when it comes to the early vote, but Florida Republicans reduced the amount of time that in-person early voting is available.
Because of that smaller window, it appears that Democrats are running a more aggressive absentee ballot program, and it seems to be paying off.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs.../why-the-early-vote-looks-good-for-democrats/
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So essentially by trying to disenfranchise people it might end up pushing a lot of Democrats to vote early, wouldn't that be a delicious backfire for the GOP to endure
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
schuelma said:
Wait, what happened to Gallup? Are we now using RAND as our tracking poll of choice?
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Nothing happened. RAND updates at 1am and Gallup at 10.

I expected Gallup to tighten today since last Monday showed a big jump back. Instead it held steady. Means Obama is polling better than the current number.

If Gallup updated at 1am I'd comment on it then. There is no single poll to follow. Raw moved too. Ibd show a slight tightening but still a lot of undecideds.
 
B

Blergmeister

Member
Kevitivity said:
I believe the data comes from here...

http://www.colorado.edu/news/releas...ting-model-still-points-romney-win-university
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It doesn't suprise me that Fox News uses that model. Correct me if I'm wrong but this is a brand new model first being tested this year right? They claim it's predicted elections for the last 40 or more years but that was all done in hindsight, basically they created the model to match the results, so we'll see if it follows through this year.
 
F

Forever

Banned
I'm reading Game Change again (I skipped over the early parts before) and apparently Bill Clinton was having an affair in 2008. It doesn't name the woman. Interesting.

Hillary wasn’t in complete denial about the perils of the situation, however. She had seen the damage that Bill’s bimbo eruptions could inflict and knew that his imputed peccadilloes were among the gravest potential impediments to her reaching the White House. Clinton turned to two aides she trusted with the most intimate matters, Solis Doyle and Cheryl Mills, and Solis Doyle included Howard Wolfson in the circle. Together, the trio formed a war room within a war room inside Hillaryland, dedicated to managing the threat posed by Bill’s libido. Mills, the lawyer, handled delicate matters where attorney-client privilege might prove useful; Solis Doyle was in charge of the political dimension; and Wolfson worked the media side of the equation.

The war room within a war room dismissed or discredited much of the gossip floating around, but not all of it. The stories about one woman were more concrete, and after some discreet fact-finding, the group concluded that they were true: that Bill was indeed having an affair—and not a frivolous one-night stand but a sustained romantic relationship.

This was exactly the scenario that had incited so many members of the conspiracy of whispers to urge Obama into the race—and what everyone who signed up with Hillary feared each waking day. But whatever storm of emotions Clinton herself might have been experiencing she put aside in the interest of survival. She instructed her team to prepare to deal with the potential blowup of Bill’s personal life. For months thereafter, the war room within a war room braced for the explosion, which her aides knew could come at any time.
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Can't teach an old dog new tricks I guess.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Blergmeister said:
It doesn't suprise me that Fox News uses that model. Correct me if I'm wrong but this is a brand new model first being tested this year right? They claim it's predicted elections for the last 40 or more years but that was all done in hindsight, basically they created the model to match the results, so we'll see if it follows through this year.
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No you are right, I look forward to those guys eating crow.
 
D

Diablos

Member
Forever said:
I'm reading Game Change again (I skipped over the early parts before) and apparently Bill Clinton was having an affair in 2008. It doesn't name the woman. Interesting.


Can't teach an old dog new tricks I guess.
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lol, what a dog.

Bill and Hillary are together for the sake of politics. It's a two-way street since she continues to stay with him after all these years.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
B-Dubs said:
No you are right, I look forward to those guys eating crow.
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We very well may get to see a full 30% of the country going into Election Night thinking that Romney is in like Flynn, only to have that notion crushed, courtesy of Ohio/Iowa/Nevada/etc.

Really, I don't think we're ever seen anything like it. I mean, perhaps many of us thought we had a shot in 2004, but we weren't solidly convinced like these folks seem. It's going to be interesting.
 
Kevitivity

Kevitivity

Member
Blergmeister said:
It doesn't suprise me that Fox News uses that model. Correct me if I'm wrong but this is a brand new model first being tested this year right? They claim it's predicted elections for the last 40 or more years but that was all done in hindsight, basically they created the model to match the results, so we'll see if it follows through this year.
Click to expand...

They don't "use" that model per-say, they were merely reporting what the researchers think. Similar models based on economic data have been very accurate in the past for what it's worth. I personally think it's a much closer race.
 
F

Forever

Banned
Diablos said:
lol, what a dog.

Bill and Hillary are together for the sake of politics. It's a two-way street since she continues to stay with him after all these years.
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From everything I've read, their relationship is just incredibly dysfunctional and fucked up but it is genuine and not just a facade.

Bill has always wanted to repay Hillary for putting up with his shit by giving her power, which is why he put her in charge of health care as First Lady and later had an emotional breakdown after failing to make her President.
 
R

RDreamer

Member
Diablos said:
Bill and Hillary are together for the sake of politics. It's a two-way street since she continues to stay with him after all these years.
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Perhaps they're just the sort of people that would have a nice open marriage and don't really care about extra partners were it not for our country and their stupid judgement of such things.
 
S

speculawyer

Member
Shadow Hog said:
tumblr_mbn0hzIMNb1qdvy24o1_1280.jpg
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Can someone give the the context of this map? Exactly who made this prediction? I can understand it if it is a Dick Morris prediction but surely the "news" part of Fox "News" did not put out something so blatantly bogus. Right?

I mean Minnesota? PA? New Mexico?

Edit: Oh . . . that crappy paper? Totally worthless. I guess this is the sort of thing that only Fox reports because it gives their viewers hope despite the fact that it completely flies in the face of polling. And how can that paper even be right? . . . If it is based on economic stuff then why doesn't it give Michigan to Romney as well considering that Detroit has been hit with an economic neutron bomb.
 
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