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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.

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B

Black Mamba

Member
The poll of 1,023 registered voters, including 869 likely voters, was taken Oct. 5-11
Click to expand...

869 likely voters. Among 12 states. That's less than 75 per state.

The margins of errors among some of these states are going to be huge. And it incorporates a bounce period. Yes, the MoE of the total is fine, but if they polled 50 Iowans, their results for that state is useless. Same with 100 Floridians.

Ignore swing state polls. When you look back to Friday's polling, it's very much in line with what the generic voting was saying at that time which has since reversed a bit.
 
A

AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
Y2Kev said:
Why? If Obama can't rise to the occasion then we might as well just FOAD. he knows his is it. He'll be there. If not I will just watch maddow suicide on live tv
Click to expand...

Chris Matthews will go first. I am sure the last thing he will feel is a thrill down his leg.
 
C

codhand

Member
EULmt.png
 
S

SmokeMaxX

Member
cartoon_soldier said:
How do you read a poll like this? Does it mean Romney has a 51% chance to win every swing state they polled?
Click to expand...

Sorry I guess I should've clarified my post.
I took the link that was posted by Cloudy and found which states it had polled.
I then went to fivethirtyeight.com and just looked at what ways the states polled were leaning as of Nate's last update to his model. Most of the states polled leaned Obama (at the very least) and only 1-2 were heavily Romney (Fl at 66.9% and NC at 85.8%). If Romney is +5% in those states where Obama should have an advantage, that's a troubling poll. I wouldn't doom and gloom over it, but I think Obama has something to worry about.

That being said, it's old data- but it might show that people's minds aren't set in the swing states.

EDIT: Yuck 869 likely voters in 12 states? That's useless.
 
T

Tim-E

Member
CHEEZMO™;43230879 said:
What do you watch if you're not an idiot and want actual news?
Click to expand...

I pretty much only watch news on TV if it's local, otherwise I read my news (typically via newspaper websites) because cable news is pretty much insufferable.
 
R

ryutaro's mama

Member
Marv Albert should be the moderator.

"YESS!!!"

"..he...is..on...fire..."

Or Kevin Harlan

"Obama just sucked the air outta the building!"

"Romney with no regard for human life!"
 
S

speculawyer

Member
ryutaro's mama said:
I still don't get why Obama lets that "he can't run on this record" shit gain traction.

"Yes I can run on my record motherfucker..."

I would let the nation know what I've done and accomplished with a obstructionist Congress.
Click to expand...

FFS, yes. Obama needs to start slamming home on the record with soundbites on accomplishments. Yes, we all know about Bin Laden & GM. But there are others:
-Helped achieve removing Ghadaffi from power with very little spending and no US soldiers dying.
-Natural gas prices have been pushed to record lows thus causing low heating costs and cheap/clean electricity.
-The stock market has DOUBLED from the low during his administration
-Domestic Oil production has increased more during his administration than at any time in the last 30 years.
-The Iraq war IS OVER.
-The Afghan war is being ended. (Biden did a great job pushing this during his debate.)
-Iran is struggling under hard sanctions that he got the rest of the world to go along with

Those are hard objective achievements.
 
A

Allard

Member
speculawyer said:
FFS, yes. Obama needs to start slamming home on the record with soundbites on accomplishments. Yes, we all know about Bin Laden & GM. But there are others:
-Helped achieve removing Ghadaffi from power with very little spending and no US soldiers dying.
-Natural gas prices have been pushed to record lows thus causing low heating costs and cheap/clean electricity.
-The stock market has DOUBLED from the low during his administration
-Domestic Oil production has increased more during his administration than at any time in the last 30 years.
-The Iraq war IS OVER.
-The Afghan war is being ended. (Biden did a great job pushing this during his debate.)
-Iran is struggling under hard sanctions that he got the rest of the world to go along with

Those are hard objective achievements.
Click to expand...

On top of that a good deal of those achievements stem from having strong ties with allies, a point made against Romney who seemed to upset just about every foreign leader he went to during the summer. In fact I would go on to say that this is a point he needs to drive home excessively in the FP debate. Its the single biggest 'elephant' in the room for Romney, he is an embarrassment on foreign diplomacy right out of the gate, diplomacy with allies we need to have if we want to responsibly defend our interests outside our nations border.
 
H

Half and half

Member
I read on NPR that Romney issued 800 vetoes as Gov of Massachusetts and was overridden on most of them. Obama needs to mention that kind of stuff when Romney talks about bipartisianship.

I also liked Biden's point in the VP debate: If Romney was such a great governor, then why isn't he contesting his own state?
 
A

Amir0x

Banned
Forever said:
Isn't it Amir0x's duty to personally ensure that Pennsylvania stays with Obama?
Click to expand...

i've been doing my job by helping train depot employees in 'sensitivity' so that they learn it's ok that Obama is black and they shouldn't be scared by it!

The Army Depot is a bunch of backwards ass fucks
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
70 percent of Nevada voters live in Clark County and Obama won it by 19 points in 2008. After running up the score for several months, Democrats now represent 45 percent of registered voters there and hold a 15-point edge over Republicans. If Obama wins Clark County by double digits, it is very difficult for Republicans to compensate with the remaining 30 percent of the state, especially since Reno’s Washoe County represents about half of those outstanding votes and promises to be quite close. In 2004, Bush's strong performance outside of Clark County allowed him to win Nevada by 21,000 votes despite losing Clark County by 26,000 votes. But in 2012, Democrats outnumber Republicans by 125,000 voters in Clark County, so a Bush-esque performance outside of Clark County wouldn’t even cover half of the gap. Obama probably won’t win Clark County by 120,000 voters, but he doesn't need to. Given the polls, the state economy, and the behavior of the two campaigns, Romney's chances in Nevada can't be dismissed. But these numbers are tough to overcome.

Moreover, even though the polls show a tight race in Nevada, recent history suggests that it wouldn’t be wise to put too much stock in polls that bring good tidings to Nevada Republicans. In 2010, Harry Reid outperformed the RCP average by a net-8.3 points in a stunning come-from-behind victory; in 2008, Obama outperformed the polls by a net-6.8 points, winning the state in unexpected double-digit fashion; and in 2004, Kerry outperformed the polls in Nevada more than in any other state, although the polls only understated his performance by 3.7 points. Obama would win the state comfortably if the polls underestimate his performance by a similar margin.
Click to expand...

http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate...istration-numbers-jeopardizes-romneys-chances

Just one more good poll, and I'll be moving it out of my "swing" column into the "light blue" column.
 
S

speculawyer

Member
Allard said:
On top of that a good deal of those achievements stem from having strong ties with allies, a point made against Romney who seemed to upset just about every foreign leader he went to during the summer. In fact I would go on to say that this is a point he needs to drive home excessively in the FP debate. Its the single biggest 'elephant' in the room for Romney, he is an embarrassment on foreign diplomacy right out of the gate, diplomacy with allies we need to have if we want to responsibly defend our interests outside our nations border.
Click to expand...
There is this weird fiction on the right that everything would be somehow better if we just acted tougher or stronger. It is such elementary boy thinking. They think being a bully gets respect. They are confusing fear with respect. Respect comes from working with others to achieve results, not from being violent unnecessarily.
 
S

speculawyer

Member
Half and half said:
I read on NPR that Romney issued 800 vetoes as Gov of Massachusetts and was overridden on most of them. Obama needs to mention that kind of stuff when Romney talks about bipartisianship.

I also liked Biden's point in the VP debate: If Romney was such a great governor, then why isn't he contesting his own state?
Click to expand...

And why didn't he get a 2nd term or become 'Senator Romney'?
 
R

ryutaro's mama

Member
speculawyer said:
FFS, yes. Obama needs to start slamming home on the record with soundbites on accomplishments. Yes, we all know about Bin Laden & GM. But there are others:
-Helped achieve removing Ghadaffi from power with very little spending and no US soldiers dying.
-Natural gas prices have been pushed to record lows thus causing low heating costs and cheap/clean electricity.
-The stock market has DOUBLED from the low during his administration
-Domestic Oil production has increased more during his administration than at any time in the last 30 years.
-The Iraq war IS OVER.
-The Afghan war is being ended. (Biden did a great job pushing this during his debate.)
-Iran is struggling under hard sanctions that he got the rest of the world to go along with

Those are hard objective achievements.
Click to expand...

Yep.

Obama needs to make people aware that his time in office has been spent on a lot of other shit other than killing OBL and watching a slow recovery.

The stock market thing is huge but Romney could point out that it's because Obama wisely extended the Bush Tax cuts...blah blah blah.
 
J

jbug617

Banned
speculawyer said:
And why didn't he get a 2nd term or become 'Senator Romney'?
Click to expand...

well in MA he didn't want a second term as Governor. Many believe he used being Governor to leap frog into becoming President. I can remember his last year as Governor and he wasn't really in the state. He made trips to Israel etc.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
It's Official: Non-Partisan Kaiser Foundation Says 60% Of Seniors Would Pay More For Medicare Under Romney-Ryan Voucher Plan

A new study out today by the non-partisan Kaiser Family Foundation confirms what many have been saying for a very long time—the Romney-Ryan Medicare plan would result in six out of ten seniors paying substantially more for the same Medicare benefits they receive today.

The premium support approach to Medicare involves the government providing seniors with a set amount of money each year—pegged to the second lowest priced private health care plan available—in an effort to turn over health care for seniors to the private insurance market. While proponents of the approach believe that this will generate more competition in health care, make seniors more responsible for how they spend their health care dollars and result in less spending on seniors by the federal government, critics have argued that the sum of money the government would pay would be insufficient to cover the rising costs of health care, leaving seniors exposed to having to pay an ever growing portion of their health insurance coverage.

The Kaiser report backs up the critics.

According to Kaiser, the premium support approach (often referred to as a voucher plan) to Medicare—the hallmark of the Paul Ryan Medicare plan that has been endorsed and adopted by Governor Romney—would mean higher premium costs for more than half of beneficiaries currently enrolled in traditional Medicare—if such a program were in place today—while raising the costs for nearly all of those who participate in a Medicare Advantage program.

The study further found that the additional costs to seniors would vary from region to region, with areas of high per-capita Medicare spending seeing a cost boost for 80 percent of Medicare recipients.
Click to expand...
http://www.forbes.com/sites/rickung...-for-medicare-under-romney-ryan-voucher-plan/
Study here: http://www.kff.org/medicare/8373.cfm

Obama needs to bring this up tomorrow. Everyone knows Kaiser by name and if Kaiser is saying this, it will hurt Romney.

I think Obama needs to drive home 4 points on healthcare

1. Romney proposing voucher system studies say will increase costs. That the Romney private market choice means that the voucher won't keep up with costs of traditional medicare and many seniors will be forced into private market for much less care than they currently have. Use Kaiser, etc.

2. Mention that studies show under Romney 70 million people will lose health care. There is no pre-existing conditions in his, etc. Remove the lifetime caps as well, especially for sick children. HE NEEDS TO DRIVE THIS POINT HOME.

3. He is cutting medicaid which is often the only lifeline for the poor AND Romney's own plan in Mass relied on medicaid for being successful. If it's a model for the other states and at the same time he cuts medicaid, he makes that model impossible.

4. Mention that Mitt claims everyone does have healthcare by going to the emergency room. I think this is a BIG opportunity for Obama. I would state two things.

A. First off, this is the most expensive method of handling medicare. By doing this, either people are saddled with bills they cannot pay or everyone who does pay for insurance sees their premiums go up.

B. This is only true for direct emergency care. Obama needs to look at the questioner and say "look, if you don't have insurance under the Romney plan and you develop cancer or diabetes you won't get care. It's true that if you're in a car accident or have a heart attack the hospital will keep you alive, but if you need months of chemotherapy for an illness you didn't expect, you're out of luck. And no insurance company is obligated to take you on and they won't. Now, I refuse to allow the millions of people who would not have insurance to slowly erode because as a society we have decided to leave them behind for illnesses they have no say about. As a society we have an obligation to not only bring down the cost of treatment but to also have access to treatment for those who need it."
 
C

Crisco

Banned
codhand said:
.
Click to expand...

It's funny watching how the overall election forecast tracks point for point with the Ohio forecast. Both moved exactly 3 points for both candidates in their respective directions. I realize that's not a coincidence, but it just underscores how important that state is.
 
B

Brinbe

Member
Doooooomed!
SmokeMaxX said:
538 Projections:
Colorado- 50.3% R
Florida- 66.9% R
Iowa- 57.5% O
Michigan- 93.5% O
Nevada- 61% O
New Hampshire- 68.3% O
New Mexico- 94.5% O
North Carolina- 85.8% R
Ohio- 66.5% O
Pennsylvania- 90.3% O
Virginia- 52% R
Wisconsin- 77% O

Still troubling results considering most of the states that they polled are Obama states.
Click to expand...
And Bams already wins with the bolded, so Romney am truly fucked. And if Iowa somehow falls (and with early voting, I doubt it), Nevada/NH pick up the slack. CO/VA/FL and close states like that aren't needed with Ohio locked down. Which is probably why Romney's gonna spend every week there from now till November.
 
M

markatisu

Member
jbug617 said:
well in MA he didn't want a second term as Governor. Many believe he used being Governor to leap frog into becoming President. I can remember his last year as Governor and he wasn't really in the state. He made trips to Israel etc.
Click to expand...

And he has been horribly running for President ever since lol
 
I

izakq

Member
FLEABttn said:
Wilson has no ground game. I literally haven't seen a single Wilson sign until this past weekend, one just on the outskirts of Taos, one on highway 64, and one just inside of Angel Fire.

I'd be amazed if she won, because the base and the independents that used to vote for her are not rallied.
Click to expand...

That's true, which is strange, cause she's not new in how to conduct a campaign, yet the only thing I've seen from her are the TV commercials around the 6:00 pm hour and that's it. No flyers, signs, bumper stickers.

Are you from Taos? Albuquerque here, but originally from Espanola. :)
 
B

bananas

Banned
Brinbe said:
Doooooomed!
SmokeMaxX said:
538 Projections:
Colorado- 50.3% R
Florida- 66.9% R
Iowa- 57.5% O
Michigan- 93.5% O
Nevada- 61% O
New Hampshire- 68.3% O
New Mexico- 94.5% O
North Carolina- 85.8% R
Ohio- 66.5% O
Pennsylvania- 90.3% O
Virginia- 52% R
Wisconsin- 77% O

Still troubling results considering most of the states that they polled are Obama states.
Click to expand...
And Bams already wins with the bolded, so Romney am truly fucked. And if Iowa somehow falls (and with early voting, I doubt it), Nevada/NH pick up the slack. CO/VA/FL and close states like that aren't needed with Ohio locked down. Which is probably why Romney's gonna spend every week there from now till November.
Click to expand...

RE6hk.png


So, uh, what was everyone worrying about again?
 
A

AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
Romney should definitely focus more on Nevada. If he could turn that, it would do it.

Oh, nevermind, I thought yo u were correlating the two.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
AlteredBeast said:
Romney should definitely focus more on Nevada. If he could turn that, it would do it.

Oh, nevermind, I thought yo u were correlating the two.
Click to expand...

If he's not spending time there it must mean his internal polling is saying it ain't worth the time.

Always take note and where most of the campaigning is occurring.

PS: Does anyone have that website where you pick which Mitt side you choose? I want to send that to someone.
 
J

JCizzle

Member
I don't get why both POTUS and Biden let the bipartisanship lines get by without barely a whimper. They're allowing a strength (Americas hatred of this Congress) to be turned into a weakness. Why haven't we heard "tea party"?
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
http://www.cnbc.com/id/49420465

Hey look, the Koch brothers trying to scare their employees into voting Romney. Shocking stuff.

In the flyers that went out, every one of the guys they backed was a republican.
 
B

Brinbe

Member
bananas said:
RE6hk.png


So, uh, what was everyone worrying about again?
Click to expand...

Exactly, and it's hilarious how the media's so focused on the overall national race that it's completely missing this. Look at where Obama's been these past few weeks (Iowa -he's going back on Wednesday/Wisconsin -remember that 30,000 rally?/Ohio -he, along with his wife and Clinton are gonna be there a ton) and his overall focus on the early vote, and you can see that they're trying to lock this shit down now and build up that firewall.
 
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