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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.

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J

Jackson50

Member
Blergmeister said:
It doesn't suprise me that Fox News uses that model. Correct me if I'm wrong but this is a brand new model first being tested this year right? They claim it's predicted elections for the last 40 or more years but that was all done in hindsight, basically they created the model to match the results, so we'll see if it follows through this year.
Click to expand...
Correct. To characterize it as having predicted anything is spurious. Rather, it's correctly postdicted the past eight presidential elections. 2012 is the first test of its predictive power. Of course, accurate postdictions are easy when you overfit the model. And that's the glaring flaw in their methodology. Mind you, they use data from only the past eight elections. And they estimate seven parameters in their regression. It's evident how they generated significance from the model.

Essentially, ignore it until it actually predicts something.
Blergmeister said:
What was it about this particular papers projection that made it newsworthy to Fox News but not to anyone else?
Click to expand...
Good question.
 
S

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
Black Mamba said:
Nothing happened. RAND updates at 1am and Gallup at 10.

I expected Gallup to tighten today since last Monday showed a big jump back. Instead it held steady. Means Obama is polling better than the current number.

If Gallup updated at 1am I'd comment on it then. There is no single poll to follow. Raw moved too. Ibd show a slight tightening but still a lot of undecideds.
Click to expand...

The reason I ask if you seemed to be putting a lot of emphasis on Gallup tightening up this weekend and it did not really do that.
 
Kevitivity

Kevitivity

Member
speculawyer said:
Can someone give the the context of this map? Exactly who made this prediction? I can understand it if it is a Dick Morris prediction but surely the "news" part of Fox "News" did not put out something so blatantly bogus. Right?
Click to expand...

If you're a leftie you watch MSNBC, if you are right, you watch FOX.
 
M

Measley

Junior Member
Republicans better be careful. They could wind up losing the Midwest and the Southwest. Obama won Indiana in 2008, and that makes it vulnerable for a flip. It won't happen this cycle, but in the future, the Republican party will only have power in the South and the Bible Belt.
 
G

Godslay

Banned
Kevitivity said:
If you're a leftie you watch MSNBC, if you are right, you watch FOX.
Click to expand...

If you have any sense you watch PBS.

Measley said:
Republicans better be careful. They could wind up losing the Midwest and the Southwest. Obama won Indiana in 2008, and that makes it vulnerable for a flip. It won't happen this cycle, but in the future, the Republican party will only have power in the South and the Bible Belt.
Click to expand...

If they lose the presidency, I can see them reforming their party and forcing the tea party and the like out. Moving back towards the center.
 
M

Magni

Member
Souldriver said:
Once again proving my inability to read twitter. I have no idea who this is, who he is talking to, and who says what. @@@@@ ###


"#
Click to expand...

Brian Beutler quotes Markos Moulitsas talking about the PPP poll and then Michelle Obama talking to her husband (do I really need to link who they are :lol).

RT means ReTweet which is the Twitter equivalent of a quote. @ is what precedes a Twitter account name, # is just used for easy searching and trending stuff etc.
 
Kevitivity

Kevitivity

Member
CHEEZMO™;43230879 said:
What do you watch if you're not an idiot and want actual news?
Click to expand...

What I do: Stick to the newspapers. Be aware of the bias of the paper you are reading. Read left and right. Always read the last two paragraphs - not just the headline.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
So even Reuters moved more for Obama, now +2.

ABC/WaPo O +3
RAND O +4.6
Reuters O +2
TIPPS/IBS O +.3
Politico O +1
Gallup RV O +2
Gallup LV R +2
Rasmussen R +1

Avg O +1.25



edit: Why the fuck would USA Today release a poll 5 days after the poll? What's the use?
 
M

markatisu

Member
LOL @ the USA Today poll and "waitress moms" so are these white women who now join the "Blue collar" aka white men who don't like minorities lol
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Diablos said:
wtf is this crap, get it out of our thread, omfg
Click to expand...

Look at the polling dates. It's worthless. They've been holding onto this poll for days. What a crock of shit. This should have been released on Friday. It incorporates the post-debate bounce, as well.

48-48 among women. LMAO. 7 points gap between Registered and Likely voters this late in the election!?

haha, 9 point gap among registered and likely women. So basically women like Obama but won't other voting.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Black Mamba said:
So even Reuters moved more for Obama, now +2.

ABC/WaPo O +3
RAND O +4.6
Reuters O +2
TIPPS/IBS O +.3
Politico O +1
Gallup RV O +2
Gallup LV R +2
Rasmussen R +1

Avg O +1.25



edit: Why the fuck would USA Today release a poll 5 days after the poll? What's the use?
Click to expand...

So... we'll get to see most media outlets cling onto that Gallup LV model for their dear lives, I suppose. Ugh.
 
D

Diablos

Member
Like Nate said, the polling this cycle has been pretty fucked up. I don't know what to think, but I would hope the state-by-state polling if nothing else is a confirmation that Bams is getting his groove back.
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
Black Mamba said:
Look at the polling dates. It's worthless. They've been holding onto this poll for days. What a crock of shit. This should have been released on Friday. It incorporates the post-debate bounce, as well.

48-48 among women. LMAO. 7 points gap between Registered and Likely voters this late in the election!?

haha, 9 point gap among registered and likely women. So basically women like Obama but won't other voting.
Click to expand...

Swing state polls like these are useless imo. Their general poll better one to look at.
 
D

Diablos

Member
Black Mamba said:
Look at the polling dates. It's worthless. They've been holding onto this poll for days. What a crock of shit. This should have been released on Friday. It incorporates the post-debate bounce, as well.

48-48 among women. LMAO. 7 points gap between Registered and Likely voters this late in the election!?

haha, 9 point gap among registered and likely women. So basically women like Obama but won't other voting.
Click to expand...
It will mess with the average though on sites like 538 or RCP.

USA Today = trolls for waiting this long. A-Holes.
 
R

ryutaro's mama

Member
So Mamba, sticking with the basketball analogy from before that we have been throwing around, what kinda game will Obama have tomorrow?

I still got Obama in 3 after dropping Game 1.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
No it won't. They don't put in "swing state polls."

This poll is just Gallup, btw. It's Gallup's swing state poll for USA Today. And an old data set, to be exact.

USA Today obviously held off on releasing this friday just for the debate news cycle tomorrow.


So Mamba, sticking with the basketball analogy from before that we have been throwing around, what kinda game will Obama have tomorrow?

I still got Obama in 3 after dropping Game 1.
Click to expand...

I think tomorrow is game 4 and He's up 2-1 in the series on the road. Win this and it's effectively over. He laid an egg up 2-0 on the road against a desperate team.
 
S

speculawyer

Member
Diablos said:
Like Nate said, the polling this cycle has been pretty fucked up. I don't know what to think, but I would hope the state-by-state polling if nothing else is a confirmation that Bams is getting his groove back.
Click to expand...

PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these polls.
 
D

Diablos

Member
Black Mamba said:
No it won't. They don't put in "swing state polls."

This poll is just Gallup, btw. It's Gallup's swing state poll for USA Today. And an old data set, to be exact.

USA Today obviously held off on releasing this friday just for the debate news cycle tomorrow.
Click to expand...
Epic smh.

I really don't trust these people to be picking the voters for the townhall, but nothing can be done about that I suppose
 
S

SmokeMaxX

Member
Cloudy said:
October 5-11
Click to expand...

The states are Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.
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538 Projections:
Colorado- 50.3% R
Florida- 66.9% R
Iowa- 57.5% O
Michigan- 93.5% O
Nevada- 61% O
New Hampshire- 68.3% O
New Mexico- 94.5% O
North Carolina- 85.8% R
Ohio- 66.5% O
Pennsylvania- 90.3% O
Virginia- 52% R
Wisconsin- 77% O

Still troubling results considering most of the states that they polled are Obama states.
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
SmokeMaxX said:
538 Projections:
Colorado- 50.3% R
Florida- 66.9% R
Iowa- 57.5% O
Michigan- 93.5% O
Nevada- 61% O
New Hampshire- 68.3% O
New Mexico- 94.5% O
North Carolina- 85.8% R
Ohio- 66.5% O
Pennsylvania- 90.3% O
Virginia- 52% R
Wisconsin- 77% O

Still troubling results considering most of the states that they polled are Obama states.
Click to expand...

How do you read a poll like this? Does it mean Romney has a 51% chance to win every swing state they polled?
 
F

FLEABttn

Banned
izakq said:
Also Heinrich has been pretty consistant in being dominate over Wilson for the Senate seat.
Click to expand...

Wilson has no ground game. I literally haven't seen a single Wilson sign until this past weekend, one just on the outskirts of Taos, one on highway 64, and one just inside of Angel Fire.

I'd be amazed if she won, because the base and the independents that used to vote for her are not rallied.

Y2Kev said:
How blue is New Mexico?
Click to expand...

Others have posted the numbers. We're blue. The only way we're ever going red is immigration reform. And I think even that would be short lived.

Anecdotal, but my conservative co-workers have gone from angry and hopeful to angry and resigned. They know it's "done" in NM.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
ryutaro's mama said:
If he ties, he wins.
Click to expand...

in the case of politics, yes. Although, a clear win would be demoralizing and akin to a team laying down and getting blown out in game 5.


How do you read a poll like this? Does it mean Romney has a 51% chance to win every swing state they polled?
Click to expand...

Don't even bother with swing state polls. Are they even weighted by the state populations? And the sample sizes are probably quite small for each state.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
SmokeMaxX said:
538 Projections:
Colorado- 50.3% R
Florida- 66.9% R
Iowa- 57.5% O
Michigan- 93.5% O
Nevada- 61% O
New Hampshire- 68.3% O
New Mexico- 94.5% O
North Carolina- 85.8% R
Ohio- 66.5% O
Pennsylvania- 90.3% O
Virginia- 52% R
Wisconsin- 77% O

Still troubling results considering most of the states that they polled are Obama states.
Click to expand...

As nerve wracking as this old data is, it just put in perspective that Obama would still win.
 
R

ryutaro's mama

Member
I still don't get why Obama lets that "he can't run on this record" shit gain traction.

"Yes I can run on my record motherfucker..."

I would let the nation know what I've done and accomplished with a obstructionist Congress.
 
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