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[AniHawk]

i don't think obama is really down 6 fucking points in the lv. that is going to tighten up. rv isn't too encouraging, but this was all post-1st and pre-2nd. it's probably going to be his worst polling day, and should pick up throughout the week.

 

[Hop]

Yeah, on first-glance that Gallup is bad, but aren't they still on that 7-day rolling average? Might take a while to see the after-effects (if any) of the debate.

Yea, this is the pre-debate number. Have to wait until tomorrow to see the actual effects reflected in polling.

 

[Loudninja]

So are we going to continue to go though this with gallup everyday?

 

[Trakdown]

Anybody got a link to that Gallup poll? Followed a link in twitter, came up with nothing.

 

[Y2Kev]

Yeah, on first-glance that Gallup is bad, but aren't they still on that 7-day rolling average? Might take a while to see the after-effects (if any) of the debate.

I don't think the rv-LV spread will be so big in reality and I don't think the debate could have caused a 10 pt swing (from o+5 to r+5) but the optics alone are somewhat bad.

White people in the south really hate Obama I guess.

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

Anybody got a link to that Gallup poll? Followed a link in twitter, came up with nothing.

http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx

 

[RustyNails]

How can gallup tracking swing from tie on 8th, to +6 Romney one week later? Whats the moe?

 

[Brinbe]

I don't think the rv-LV spread will be so big in reality and I don't think the debate could have caused a 10 pt swing (from o+5 to r+5) but the optics alone are somewhat bad.

White people in the south really hate Obama I guess.

Yeah, this isn't surprising, and I've been convinced for a while that's what's been driving Romney's numbers. Not even really in the South, it's seemingly most rural areas at this point. They really do hate the POTUS.

But as stated, Romney's still not gaining enough ground in the places he needs like Ohio. So these numbers aren't truly distressing apart from an optics POV.

 

[ivysaur12]

I don't think the rv-LV spread will be so big in reality and I don't think the debate could have caused a 10 pt swing (from o+5 to r+5) but the optics alone are somewhat bad.

White people in the south really hate Obama I guess.

Thankfully, the electoral college completely mitigates their vote.

 

[FnordChan]

I can't suggest any specific outlet, but this article (and Jon Chait in general) is amazing.

http://nymag.com/news/politics/elections-2012/obama-romney-economic-plans-2012-10/

That was a terrific article. Thanks for posting it!

FnordChan

 

[Y2Kev]

Thankfully, the electoral college completely mitigates their vote.

Maybe mechanically, but it could demoralize voters to see Obama down so much if its like this and we get closer. I'd say they have to be within 2 of each other By next wednesday or Gallup will risk credibility if Obama wins.

 

[pigeon]

So are we going to continue to go though this with gallup everyday?

Actually, I'm impressed with the relative calm with which this was received compared to previous PoliGAF outings. I guess people really did benefit from the debate last night.

 

[codhand]

Obama incorporating "sketchy" into his stump speech.

 

[Loudninja]

Maybe mechanically, but it could demoralize voters to see Obama down so much if its like this and we get closer. I'd say they have to be within 2 of each other By next wednesday or Gallup will risk credibility if Obama wins.

It wont like at all.

 

[RDreamer]

MULawPoll: New MU Law Poll has Obama at 49%, Romney 48% among likely voters in WI. #mulawpoll

MULawPoll: Among those who watched Denver debate, Romney up 50-48. Among those who didn’t, Obama up 50-42. #mulawpoll

MULawPoll: Movement in the polls -- Obama was ahead by 11pys two weeks ago -- is mostly among independents, Franklin says. #mulawpoll

 

[Effect]

So are we going to continue to go though this with gallup everyday?

I think we should just drop it and just focus on the state polls. Those have always been more important. When an entire region hates you and will never vote for you (no matter what you do) that really screws up the ability to get any accurate polling.

 

[SmokeMaxX]

MULawPoll: New MU Law Poll has Obama at 49%, Romney 48% among likely voters in WI. #mulawpoll

Eh? Wisconsin is in play now?

 

[Black Republican]

mulawpoll

Obama 49/48 Wisconsin

 

[PhoenixDark]

uh oh

Poll: Race Tied in Wisconsin

A new poll released Wednesday shows President Obama and Mitt Romney tied in Wisconsin, erasing the significant lead that Obama had built following the Democratic convention and putting the state's 10 electoral votes firmly in play.

The Marquette Law School poll shows Obama leading Romney, 49 percent to 48 percent, well within the poll's margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.4 percentage points. Only 2 percent of voters remain undecided.

In late September, just before Romney's impressive performance in the first presidential debate, Obama held an 11-point lead, 53 percent to 42 percent.

Likely voters are split on the president's job performance: 48 percent approve, and 48 percent disapprove. A slim majority, 52 percent, view Obama favorably, compared to 45 percent who view him unfavorably. That is slightly better than Romney's image, which is 46 percent favorable, versus 48 percent unfavorable. Forty-nine percent of Badger State voters have a favorable impression of home-state Rep. Paul Ryan, the GOP vice-presidential nominee.

The poll of 870 likely voters was conducted Oct. 11-14, largely after the Oct. 11 vice presidential debate featuring Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan.

http://nationaljournal.com/politics/poll-race-tied-in-wisconsin-20121017

 

[Loudninja]

We get a full CO poll on Thursday.

 

[Brinbe]

Obama incorporating "sketchy" into his stump speech.

Totally forgot he was on now. Wow @ the rolled-up sleeves/loosened up tie look.

And that WI poll was from last week after the VP debate. Hard to believe that Bams' performance last night didn't shift numbers at all. So wait till recent polling confirms things before getting too worked up.

 

[RDreamer]

MULawPoll: Senate race in Wis is also now a tie, Franklin says, at Thompson 46%, Baldwin 45%. #mulawpoll

 

[Frank the Great]

horrible polls out of wisconsin

 

[Jackson50]

the UK will revert to two-party dominant, it is inevitable. this is why the liberal democrats wanted proportional representation to be included as part of their coalition deal with the conservatives.

the last election was also something of an outlier, with a terrible labor leader and a dynamic young third party leader. labor will get their shit together and the system will revert eventually. any change in the two-party system is only temporary without a change in the voting system. the "tendency" will always be to revert to two-parties, so any miraculous third party run is only temporary. i feel like you're nitpicking at what i said only to reach the same conclusion.

The Liberal Democrats sought PR because it essentially guarantees multipartism. The obverse of Duverger's Law, Duverger's hypothesis, posits that a PR system engenders multipartism. And the evidence is strong for that postulate. But the evidence for the obverse, that plurality voting engenders a two-party equilibrium, is not as strong. So, of course they'll favor PR. It effectively guarantees multiparty representation. Whereas the current system, while not assuring their demise, at least permits the possibility.

The election in 2010 wasn't terribly dissimilar from earlier elections. The Liberals have been flirting with one-fifth of the vote for three decades. Their subsistence is incongruous with Duverger's specifications.

Also, the recent election was not the deviant cases I was referring to. Canada and India, both of which use plurality voting, have experienced deviations from Duverger's predictions for decades. They are the standard counterexamples within the literature. So, no. Not nitpicking. Just noting that there's a broader debate within the literature about the strength of Duverger's predictions and that two-party dominance is hardly inevitable.

 

[Trakdown]

MULawPoll: Senate race in Wis is also now a tie, Franklin says, at Thompson 46%, Baldwin 45%. #mulawpoll

??? I thought Thompson's campaign was self-destructing.

 

[Loudninja]

??? I thought Thompson's campaign was self-destructing.

It is they are not tied.

 

[fallagin]

http://www.theonion.com/articles/first-question-from-debate-audience-somehow-comes,29947/

 

[ivysaur12]

How does that MI poll compare to the aggregate?

 

[thekad]

The election in 2010 wasn't terribly dissimilar from earlier elections. The Liberals have been flirting with one-fifth of the vote for three decades. Their subsistence is incongruous with Duverger's specifications.

No, it's not. They possessed no power in the UK's parliamentary system and were never a part of government. The UK has and will always have a de facto two party system as long as FPTP exists in the country.

 

[pigeon]

uh oh


http://nationaljournal.com/politics/poll-race-tied-in-wisconsin-20121017

Obama still at 49 percent.

Nate Cohn just did an article on Wisconsin:

Indeed, Wisconsin could be Obama's best battleground state and it might be the only battleground state where Obama has nearly locked up the votes he needs to win reelection. Although the state remains characteristically tight, post-debate polls show Obama at or above 49 percent—just like 21 of the 23 surveys conducted in the Badger State since the gubernatorial recall election, and a higher percentage than any other battleground state. No, there haven't been many post-debate polls, but the post-DNC surveys showed Obama leading by 7 points--better than any other battleground. Similarly, the Wisconsin Recall exit polls found Obama leading Romney by 7 in a very Republican-friendly electorate. This isn't to say that Romney can't win Wisconsin, just that he appears likelier to win in most of the other battleground states where at least a few polls show him in the lead and Obama holds less than 49 percent of the vote, including the pivotal state of Ohio.

The polls are not alone in viewing Wisconsin as less competitive than the other battleground states; the campaigns might believe it too. The Obama and Romney campaigns kept Wisconsin on the back-burner throughout most of the summer and didn't invest in the state until a week following the major party conventions. The Obama campaign even chose to initially spend dollars defending Pennsylvania instead of Wisconsin. And in September, the Obama campaign was content to allow Romney to out-advertise them by more than 2:1 in western Wisconsin, despite the resources to fight on a level playing field in inexpensive media markets. While this might be surprising given the state's demographics, it's less surprising given it's electoral history. In 2008, Obama won Wisconsin by more than 16 points—more than any other battleground State. Wisconsin has voted for Democrats in six consecutive presidential elections and it's the only battleground that never voted for George W. Bush. These aren't reasons why Romney can't win Wisconsin, just reasons why it's more difficult than the other battlegrounds.

http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate...-its-one-obamas-strongest-battleground-states

Ain't gonna stress.

 

[RDreamer]

I think the Wisconsin polls are showing a likely voter model/ethusiasm problem. If younger people are less enthused because of the first debate they may fall into a not likely to vote category. Probably some of what's happening.

 

[Effect]

It is they are not tied.

That poll makes no sense then.

 

[Brinbe]

LOL, Obama just busted out a binder line on the stump.

http://www.c-span.org/Campaign2012/Events/Pres-Obama-Campaigns-in-Iowa-and-Ohio/10737435018-1/ if anyone else wants to watch

 

[RDreamer]

That poll makes no sense then.

MU Law is a good pollster, though.

 

[AlteredBeast]

Whaaaa... If Wisconsin goes red, you could pretty much toss all that stuff I said last night. Sell your intrade shares now, folks!

 

[Loudninja]

That poll makes no sense then.

Cant fret over one poll though

 

[Crisco]

MULawPoll: Among those who watched Denver debate, Romney up 50-48. Among those who didn’t, Obama up 50-42. #mulawpoll

People are so goddamned stupid.

 

[Loudninja]

Obama still at 49 percent.

Nate Cohn just did an article on Wisconsin:



http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate...-its-one-obamas-strongest-battleground-states

Ain't gonna stress.

Good article.

 

[Drek]

uh oh


http://nationaljournal.com/politics/poll-race-tied-in-wisconsin-20121017

So more likely voters will vote for Romney than those who view him favorably, and the opposite is true for Obama?

Marquette might want to do some digging into their sample, it seems rather goofy.

 

[pigeon]

Apparently due to the death of my racist uncle-in-law my staunch Republican parents-in-law will be staying with us over the week of the election.

That should be entertaining.

My wife told me to buy some Obama-Biden shirts. I'm...well, undecided.

 

[Effect]

Cant fret over one poll though

True and I'm not. Just weird is all.

 

[Cheebo]

Cant fret over one poll though

They are the best pollster in WI. Highly respected. One of the very few to get the recall election dead on.

 

[CaptainSchwann]

All post-debate surveys are a good sign that Obamas numbers will come roaring back after last night. Democrats will likely go on suicide watch till then.

 

[AlteredBeast]

Apparently due to the death of my racist uncle-in-law my staunch Republican parents-in-law will be staying with us over the week of the election.

That should be entertaining.

My wife told me to buy some Obama-Biden shirts. I'm...well, undecided.

Low information familial goader.

 

[Loudninja]

They are the best pollster in WI. Highly respected.

Ok?

 

[giga]

Pollsters releasing polls that were conducted a week ago is…lol.

 

[B-Dubs]

Apparently due to the death of my racist uncle-in-law my staunch Republican parents-in-law will be staying with us over the week of the election.

That should be entertaining.

My wife told me to buy some Obama-Biden shirts. I'm...well, undecided.

Just buy a binder and write WOMEN on it and keep it out where everyone can see it.

 

[AniHawk]

the senate race being a tie in wisconsin is more concerning. a lot of the places where obama cratered in the polls showed the dems leading decently in the senate races, meaning it was just obama who mucked things up. it's probably a legit race in wisconsin.

hopefully this debate does things for wisconsin. if romney gets wisconsin, obama MUST win iowa, new hampshire, and nevada (or colorado or virginia) in addition to ohio.

 

[Loudninja]

Pollsters releasing polls that were conducted a week ago is…lol.

Its annoying.

 

[thekad]

They are the best pollster in WI. Highly respected. One of the very few to get the recall election dead on.