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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.

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A

AniHawk

Member
Black Mamba said:
I would t worry about the Wisconsin poll. It included post debate numbers from last night. It hasn't been twenty four hours. Think about who they could have possibly polled on it. Hint: they arent at work.

Gallup at this point looks ridiculous. Five points more than ras. Tipps moved +1 Obama too.

Rand ras tipps Reuters has all moved for Obama the last five days. Other companies show the same. Gallup is now the only poster showing Romney gains.
Click to expand...

rand, ras, tipps/reuters don't poll the south nearly enough. they should pull them harder.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Black Mamba said:
I would t worry about the Wisconsin poll. It included post debate numbers from last night. It hasn't been twenty four hours. Think about who they could have possibly polled on it. Hint: they arent at work.

Gallup at this point looks ridiculous. Five points more than ras. Tipps moved +1 Obama too.

Rand ras tipps Reuters has all moved for Obama the last five days. Other companies show the same. Gallup is now the only poster showing Romney gains.
Click to expand...

I thought it didn't include that data.

Also the worrying part (or maybe the saving part) is the senate race. I don't believe it is tied.
 
E

equap

Banned
Souldriver said:
Anyone seen this?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4xlCNf0MwCU

tumblr_m9x3dz5U0k1qgqr0ho1_250.gif
tumblr_m9x3dz5U0k1qgqr0ho2_250.gif

tumblr_m9x3dz5U0k1qgqr0ho3_250.gif
tumblr_m9x3dz5U0k1qgqr0ho4_250.gif


Cute. :)
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that was great!
 
Link

Link

The Autumn Wind
Trurl said:
I have to say, I've installed an extension to limit my Gaf time (which at the moment basically equals Poligaf time) to 45 minutes a day. I've also made a self-imposed rule that I'll only check 538 once per-day. It's brought a lot of sanity back to how I'm following the horse race.
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Seriously, if it weren't for PoliGAF, I could just vote, celebrate on election night, and go on with my life. Instead, I'm on a rollercoaster ride of emotions every day.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Can't wait for Romney to win the popular vote and Obama to win the electoral.

Here's my prediction for the right-wing:

1. Anger
2. Complete ignoring of the fact that this happens to Gore and they didn't care
3. Call for the electors to buck what the state voted and put in their vote for Romney instead
 
I

iamshadowlark

Banned
Plinko said:
Can't wait for Romney to win the popular vote and Obama to win the electoral.

Here's my prediction for the right-wing:

1. Anger
2. Complete ignoring of the fact that this happens to Gore and they didn't care
3. Call for the electors to buck what the state voted and put in their vote for Romney instead
Click to expand...

That won't happen.
 
A

AniHawk

Member
yeah i think nevada will go obama's way.

i wanna see post-2nd polls from virginia. i have a real good feeling about that place.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Obama is still up in the Wi poll. Romney at his peak couldn't take the lead. Don't get too worried. I'd expect last night to move the needle enough.
 
J

Jackson50

Member
SmokeMaxX said:
While I think the Gallup poll is an outlier, I don't think we should go ahead and declare it as one because it IS the poll with the biggest sample size and smallest MOE. The poll just pushed the average towards where it should've been- which is a tie (based on popular vote).
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The other polls have sample sizes of approximately 1,000, though. The difference in certainty is not very large. Certainly not large enough to justify its deviation from the mean.
thekad said:
By dispersion, you mean dispersion across the counties which allows the FPTP system to turn their fifth of the vote into an irrelevant number of seats in Parliament? Yeah, that's the point.



The result is the same.
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But that point was not relevant to our discussion. We were discussing the evidence for Duverger's postulate. You introduced parameters immaterial to that discussion.
Diablos said:
Losing WI would be quite a feat for Romney, as it has stayed reliable for Democrats since 1988.
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If it's gone Democratic since 1988, then losing WI wouldn't be quite the feat.
 
L

Loudninja

Member
Obama Sounds Optimistic Note On Jobs, Stock Market, Housing
OBAMA: "Today four years after the worst economic crisis of our lifetimes we're moving forward again. After losing 800,000 jobs a month when I took office, our businesses have now added more than 5 million new jobs over the last 2.5 years. Unemployment has fallen from a peak of 10 percent to 7.8 percent. The stock market has nearly doubled, which means your 401ks have started to recover. Foreclosures are at their lowest point in five years, home values are back on the rise. Manufacturing is coming back to America, our assembly lines are starting to hum again. Look we've got a lot more work to do, but we've got to build on that progress."
Click to expand...
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/obama-sounds-optimistic-note-on-jobs-stock-market
 
D

Diablos

Member
Black Mamba said:
Obama is still up in the Wi poll. Romney at his peak couldn't take the lead. Don't get too worried. I'd expect last night to move the needle enough.
Click to expand...
The problem is that we are 20 days away from the election. There's only so many opportunities for Obama to "move the needle back". Going from +11 from tied with less than a month left is not something you want to see. I would hope the second debate pushes Obama back into the lead, but I doubt it would be by 11 again.

Anyone know how many people watched the debate last night?
 
R

RDreamer

Member
Diablos said:
The problem is that we are 20 days away from the election. There's only so many opportunities for Obama to "move the needle back". Going from +11 from tied with less than a month left is not something you want to see. I would hope the second debate pushes Obama back into the lead, but I doubt it would be by 11 again.

Anyone know how many people watched the debate last night?
Click to expand...

There's also only so many opportunities for Mitt to push further, and yesterday was the biggest. And he failed.
 
A

AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
Cyan said:
City council? Probably tends to skew a little older, but if you can do a lot of neighborhood-walking and show that you're articulate and smart, it shouldn't matter.

A good friend of mine did exactly that and not only got a seat, but got the highest number of votes among the candidates. Of course, he also had some credibility in the community for his work as Deputy DA, and rounded up a lot of hispanic votes because of his background and being bilingual.

But yeah, why not give it a try?
Click to expand...

Hmmmm, I am bilingual and could definitely get the hispanic vote out...Might have to do some suppression on any actual hispanic candidates, though...that could get dicey. :p

I don't see anyone directly opposing me or my viewpoints, but I do want to articulate my points so as not to get thrown out of office after one term because they didn't realize that I was going to raise taxes or something. :p
 
D

Diablos

Member
RDreamer said:
There's also only so many opportunities for Mitt to push further, and yesterday was the biggest. And he failed.
Click to expand...
Very true. We just have to hope that Obama stopped the bleeding enough last night so that it does not translate into states like WI withering away.

When you look at the questions centered around the first debate in the WI poll, it's as if people who watched it really started to change their mind on the Pres. Hopefully it was not such a profound change that they wouldn't be willing to give him a second chance now that he did what he needed to last night. That's the question.
 
A

AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
Re: that outlier Nate Silver comment. Wouldn't the Obama +3 also be considered an outlier? Obviously not as much, but the swing is definitely outside of the norm and the standard deviation of the rest of the polls.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
So is anyone in the media talking about this?

A. Romney pledges to lower middle class taxes.

B. Romney pledges to tax Chinese imports.

Uh...those contradict each other.
 
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