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[syllogism]

Those gallup crosstabs explain a lot

 

[Diablos]

Isn't Gallup one of the last pollsters to reflect changing trends? Seems to be that way.

 

[AniHawk]

I would t worry about the Wisconsin poll. It included post debate numbers from last night. It hasn't been twenty four hours. Think about who they could have possibly polled on it. Hint: they arent at work.

Gallup at this point looks ridiculous. Five points more than ras. Tipps moved +1 Obama too.

Rand ras tipps Reuters has all moved for Obama the last five days. Other companies show the same. Gallup is now the only poster showing Romney gains.

rand, ras, tipps/reuters don't poll the south nearly enough. they should pull them harder.

 

[StopMakingSense]

It included post debate numbers from last night.

No it didn't. The debate response numbers are from the first debate. Poll was conducted 10/11 - 14

 

[Y2Kev]

I would t worry about the Wisconsin poll. It included post debate numbers from last night. It hasn't been twenty four hours. Think about who they could have possibly polled on it. Hint: they arent at work.

Gallup at this point looks ridiculous. Five points more than ras. Tipps moved +1 Obama too.

Rand ras tipps Reuters has all moved for Obama the last five days. Other companies show the same. Gallup is now the only poster showing Romney gains.

I thought it didn't include that data.

Also the worrying part (or maybe the saving part) is the senate race. I don't believe it is tied.

 

[SmokeMaxX]

rand, ras, tipps/reuters don't poll the south nearly enough. they should pull them harder.

I agree. Unskew those numbers!

 

[Black Mamba]

No it didn't. The debate response numbers are from the first debate. Poll was conducted 10/11 - 14

Oh my bad. I just assumed it was last night.

In that case yeah, bad poll. Hopefully last night moves it back

 

[equap]

Anyone seen this?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4xlCNf0MwCU

Cute.

that was great!

 

[Y2Kev]

Deploy Michelle now before the world ends

 

[thekad]

Anyone seen this?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4xlCNf0MwCU

Cute.

hillaryis45

if she wants it

 

[RDreamer]

Deploy Michelle now before the world ends

Michelle and Clinton are making stops in Wisconsin this week.

 

[jbug617]

I think I need to take a break from this thread for a little bit. Polls are ruining the election for me.

 

[Y2Kev]

Michelle and Clinton are making stops in Wisconsin this week.

So that means the world is ending

 

[Black Mamba]

Ras has Obama up 3 in Nevada. That's real good for Obama.

Siena poll has McMahon down two.

 

[Forever]

Anyone seen this?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4xlCNf0MwCU

Cute.

She seems to be enjoying her job.

...BUT THINK OF HOW ALONE AND ABUSED SHE IS /pd

 

[richiek]

I am done here.

Every day at the same time the same stuff.

Seriously.

It takes several days for the debate performance to affect the polls. The same thing happened with the first debate.

Chicken littles need to chill the fuck out.

 

[Loudninja]

Ras has Obama up 3 in Nevada. That's real good for Obama.

Siena poll has McMahon down two.

Ras sucks,but another poll today has him up 3 as well in NV.
http://www.8newsnow.com/story/19836...ada?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

 

[Diablos]

What other state polls are dropping this week?

 

[Link]

I have to say, I've installed an extension to limit my Gaf time (which at the moment basically equals Poligaf time) to 45 minutes a day. I've also made a self-imposed rule that I'll only check 538 once per-day. It's brought a lot of sanity back to how I'm following the horse race.

Seriously, if it weren't for PoliGAF, I could just vote, celebrate on election night, and go on with my life. Instead, I'm on a rollercoaster ride of emotions every day.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

wtf @ gallup

 

[Plinko]

Can't wait for Romney to win the popular vote and Obama to win the electoral.

Here's my prediction for the right-wing:

1. Anger
2. Complete ignoring of the fact that this happens to Gore and they didn't care
3. Call for the electors to buck what the state voted and put in their vote for Romney instead

 

[PhoenixDark]

I'm not worried about Wisconsin, even though MU is the best pollster. I'll wait for more polls

 

[Loudninja]

What other state polls are dropping this week?

CO on thursday,NH and IW either on thursday or friday,all from PPP.

 

[iamshadowlark]

Can't wait for Romney to win the popular vote and Obama to win the electoral.

Here's my prediction for the right-wing:

1. Anger
2. Complete ignoring of the fact that this happens to Gore and they didn't care
3. Call for the electors to buck what the state voted and put in their vote for Romney instead

That won't happen.

 

[Forever]

I'm not worried about Wisconsin

HOLY SHIT

WHO ARE YOU

 

[Atilac]

Gallup over sample southerners?

 

[AniHawk]

yeah i think nevada will go obama's way.

i wanna see post-2nd polls from virginia. i have a real good feeling about that place.

 

[Diablos]

CO on thursday,NH and IW either on thursday or friday,all from PPP.

So no one else is polling WI this week? wtf

Reagan got the state in 84 but H.W. did not in 88. If he can't win it Romney sure as hell shouldn't be able to.

 

[Link]

Did somebody flip the switch on PD?

 

[RDreamer]

I'm not worried about Wisconsin, even though MU is the best pollster. I'll wait for more polls

Good news for Obama?

 

[Black Mamba]

Obama is still up in the Wi poll. Romney at his peak couldn't take the lead. Don't get too worried. I'd expect last night to move the needle enough.

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

HOLY SHIT

WHO ARE YOU

Much like Ras, PD goes legit close to the election.

 

[Jackson50]

While I think the Gallup poll is an outlier, I don't think we should go ahead and declare it as one because it IS the poll with the biggest sample size and smallest MOE. The poll just pushed the average towards where it should've been- which is a tie (based on popular vote).

The other polls have sample sizes of approximately 1,000, though. The difference in certainty is not very large. Certainly not large enough to justify its deviation from the mean.

By dispersion, you mean dispersion across the counties which allows the FPTP system to turn their fifth of the vote into an irrelevant number of seats in Parliament? Yeah, that's the point.



The result is the same.

But that point was not relevant to our discussion. We were discussing the evidence for Duverger's postulate. You introduced parameters immaterial to that discussion.

Losing WI would be quite a feat for Romney, as it has stayed reliable for Democrats since 1988.

If it's gone Democratic since 1988, then losing WI wouldn't be quite the feat.

 

[Loudninja]

Obama Sounds Optimistic Note On Jobs, Stock Market, Housing

OBAMA: "Today four years after the worst economic crisis of our lifetimes we're moving forward again. After losing 800,000 jobs a month when I took office, our businesses have now added more than 5 million new jobs over the last 2.5 years. Unemployment has fallen from a peak of 10 percent to 7.8 percent. The stock market has nearly doubled, which means your 401ks have started to recover. Foreclosures are at their lowest point in five years, home values are back on the rise. Manufacturing is coming back to America, our assembly lines are starting to hum again. Look we've got a lot more work to do, but we've got to build on that progress."

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/obama-sounds-optimistic-note-on-jobs-stock-market

 

[PhoenixDark]

Much like Ras, PD goes legit close to the election.

Nah it's just...Wisconsin has been rather stable since the VP bump died. My focus is on Virginia, Colorado, NH, and Florida. Even Iowa to a degree

 

[Diablos]

Obama is still up in the Wi poll. Romney at his peak couldn't take the lead. Don't get too worried. I'd expect last night to move the needle enough.

The problem is that we are 20 days away from the election. There's only so many opportunities for Obama to "move the needle back". Going from +11 from tied with less than a month left is not something you want to see. I would hope the second debate pushes Obama back into the lead, but I doubt it would be by 11 again.

Anyone know how many people watched the debate last night?

 

[Forever]

I wonder if Obama has people on his staff to ward off groupies.

 

[AniHawk]

So no one else is polling WI this week? wtf

Reagan got the state in 84 but not 88. If he can't win it Romney sure as hell shouldn't be able to.

reagan wasn't running for president in 1988 /nitpick

 

[Diablos]

it's gone Democratic since 1988, then losing WI wouldn't be quite the feat.

Haha, I meant to say Obama.

reagan wasn't running for president in 1988 /nitpick

I always equate H.W. Bush with another Reagan term in my head. 12 years of Reagan people in the WH, etc. But yeah, true.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Obama Sounds Optimistic Note On Jobs, Stock Market, Housing

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/obama-sounds-optimistic-note-on-jobs-stock-market

Sounds like a closing argument to me.

 

[RDreamer]

The problem is that we are 20 days away from the election. There's only so many opportunities for Obama to "move the needle back". Going from +11 from tied with less than a month left is not something you want to see. I would hope the second debate pushes Obama back into the lead, but I doubt it would be by 11 again.

Anyone know how many people watched the debate last night?

There's also only so many opportunities for Mitt to push further, and yesterday was the biggest. And he failed.

 

[StopMakingSense]

Reagan got the state in 84 but not 88.

To be fair, Reagan winning WI in 88 would have been QUITE the feat.

 

[soundahfekz]

Did somebody flip the switch on PD?

he only feeds off the fear and tears of overeacting gaf liberals. We're safe at least til the next debate.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Did somebody flip the switch on PD?

No, he isn't worried about Romney winning it.

 

[AlteredBeast]

City council? Probably tends to skew a little older, but if you can do a lot of neighborhood-walking and show that you're articulate and smart, it shouldn't matter.

A good friend of mine did exactly that and not only got a seat, but got the highest number of votes among the candidates. Of course, he also had some credibility in the community for his work as Deputy DA, and rounded up a lot of hispanic votes because of his background and being bilingual.

But yeah, why not give it a try?

Hmmmm, I am bilingual and could definitely get the hispanic vote out...Might have to do some suppression on any actual hispanic candidates, though...that could get dicey.

I don't see anyone directly opposing me or my viewpoints, but I do want to articulate my points so as not to get thrown out of office after one term because they didn't realize that I was going to raise taxes or something.

 

[Diablos]

There's also only so many opportunities for Mitt to push further, and yesterday was the biggest. And he failed.

Very true. We just have to hope that Obama stopped the bleeding enough last night so that it does not translate into states like WI withering away.

When you look at the questions centered around the first debate in the WI poll, it's as if people who watched it really started to change their mind on the Pres. Hopefully it was not such a profound change that they wouldn't be willing to give him a second chance now that he did what he needed to last night. That's the question.

 

[AlteredBeast]

Re: that outlier Nate Silver comment. Wouldn't the Obama +3 also be considered an outlier? Obviously not as much, but the swing is definitely outside of the norm and the standard deviation of the rest of the polls.

 

[Black Mamba]

So is anyone in the media talking about this?

A. Romney pledges to lower middle class taxes.

B. Romney pledges to tax Chinese imports.

Uh...those contradict each other.

 

[Stinkles]

We just have to hope that Obama stopped the bleeding enough last night so that it does not translate into states like WI withering away.

wat

 

[ErasureAcer]

Eh? Wisconsin is in play now?

I've never taken Wisconsin out of the tossup section. They spared Scott Walker! Booted Feingold! Bunch of nuts there that can't be trusted.