11th - 14th isn't weeks ago.
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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.
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11th - 14th isn't weeks ago.
Didn't say weeks. Didn't see that they ended the 14th though, so I'll give them credit.
And Obama's still @ 49% and it's pre-debate.
I know. I still think Obama will win the state. I just hate my fellow Wisconsinites for making it this close. Lol
Aaron Strife
Banned
That Gallup poll is complete shit. No one else is showing that.
seems plausible
Oh no doubt. After seeing that 30,000 show up for him a few weeks ago, it's hard to believe it is that close.
Oh, I didn't even catch that -- great point. Obviously Wisconsin is going to favor Paul Ryan after the debate, because that mean New Englander kept beating up on him.
Winning two-thirds of the battleground states isn't really "squeaking by." Any other year, that would be called a landslide.
The Librarian
Banned
What do you mean?
Outlier I guess.
That's why you shouldn't be nervous.
"If Romney holds FL and NC and THEN wins VA, CO, and THEN flips NH, and WI..."
Too many ifs. Is Romney a strong enough candidate to give him the benefit of a doubt? Although I guess a better question is "Are the American people stupid enough to vote this fool into office?"
Arrowgigantic
Member
After seeing those undecided voters on MSNBC last night, I'm afraid to answer that Q.
Video here http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JDanNdzAUn0
It is. Their inability to gain power is partially attributable to the dispersion their supporters. However, your point is irrelevant to the discussion. The prediction is not that a country will experience a de facto two-party system. Rather, it's that a third party cannot subsist under plurality voting. And it has for approximately thirty years.
Sure if you actually believe they are undecided.
just look at how the independents/moderates split. they overwhelmingly favored obama last night. that's going to help. democrat spirits have been lifted. that's going to help.
anyone tell me what the big takeaway from the debate was? are people talking up the libya moment, or anything else?
BINDERS FULL OF WOMEN!
StickSoldier
Member
So it's time to be nervous again?
I have to say, I've installed an extension to limit my Gaf time (which at the moment basically equals Poligaf time) to 45 minutes a day. I've also made a self-imposed rule that I'll only check 538 once per-day. It's brought a lot of sanity back to how I'm following the horse race.
Over the WI poll, yes.
if it's really that, then that's fine too.
By dispersion, you mean dispersion across the counties which allows the FPTP system to turn their fifth of the vote into an irrelevant number of seats in Parliament? Yeah, that's the point.
The result is the same.
Wet blankets like them are the reason democrats get easily manhandled by the GOP.
Sure if you actually believe they are undecided.
They were probably undecided but margin of error on 8 people is probably 5000%
We definitely need more polling out of WI.
Every day people are saying the same stuff because the polling thus far has been a roller coaster of unpredictability.
I'm not really all that concerned about Gallup, because I think it will tighten, but the WI poll is scary. Not only because it's tight, but because Obama had a huge lead just last month and now it's within the MoE.
The worst part of paying so much attention to the polls is that, to an extent, it's a conversation about nothing. It only feels meaningful because the outcome of the election is uncertain. After the actual results come in, any semblance of substance that these conversations have disappears.
The Librarian
Banned
Herp derp one of these is not etc.
https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight/status/258627245587959808
Edit: Goddammit, Giga!
Byakuya769
Member
Told you the chickenshits needed to be beat.
From Nate:
edit: TRYING TOO HARD
Yeah. It was +11 with a 3.5 point margin of error. Now it's +1 with a 3.5 point margin of error. Where do you think the reality probably is?
@fivethirtyeight said:
edit: TRYING TOO HARD
Yeah. It was +11 with a 3.5 point margin of error. Now it's +1 with a 3.5 point margin of error. Where do you think the reality probably is?
Souldriver
Member
On cue.
They won't listen. We're just beating a dead horse every day.
Seems like a stretch, but Romney has lead in more polls in FL, NC, VA, and CO this month than Obama, and 538 currently has his chances of winning all of them at greater than 50%. The exceptions are NH and WI, but the last few October polls have had the former either tied or with Romney ahead by 4, and then there's this new poll of the latter showing a potentially close race.
I just don't feel comfortable with WI being that close.
That was your job yesterday.
Herp derp one of these is not etc.
While I think the Gallup poll is an outlier, I don't think we should go ahead and declare it as one because it IS the poll with the biggest sample size and smallest MOE. The poll just pushed the average towards where it should've been- which is a tie (based on popular vote).
Black Mamba
Member
I would t worry about the Wisconsin poll. It included post debate numbers from last night. It hasn't been twenty four hours. Think about who they could have possibly polled on it. Hint: they arent at work.
Gallup at this point looks ridiculous. Five points more than ras. Tipps moved +1 Obama too.
Rand ras tipps Reuters has all moved for Obama the last five days. Other companies show the same. Gallup is now the only poster showing Romney gains.
Gallup at this point looks ridiculous. Five points more than ras. Tipps moved +1 Obama too.
Rand ras tipps Reuters has all moved for Obama the last five days. Other companies show the same. Gallup is now the only poster showing Romney gains.
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