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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.

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P

pigeon

Banned
TacticalFox88 said:
What in the flying fuck at these two posts.

I love how you both assume Obama lives in a bubble and isn't aware of how massively he fucked up last week and assume it's going to repeat ad infinitum over the course of the entire month.
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I find it funny, actually, that based on the Politico leak and then the NYT leak the #1 message Obama wanted to get out to the public is "I know I fucked it up real bad and I feel bad about it." Now that's the Democratic Party I remember.

But yeah, I think he'll do better. Is it worth pointing out again that Reagan did so badly in the first reelection debate people asked whether he was too old to be President any more?
 
T

teruterubozu

Member
pigeon said:
But yeah, I think he'll do better. Is it worth pointing out again that Reagan did so badly in the first reelection debate people asked whether he was too old to be President any more?
Click to expand...

Kind of, but it's also worth noting that his opponent was Walter Mondale. Romney will win more than one state. LOL
 
P

-PXG-

Member
I really hope Obama calls Romney out for the flip flopper that he is.

Romney has always talked about building a strong military that, "no one would dare test". Then, during the debate, he denied Obama's claims that he would add $2 trillion to the military budget. But now, again, he claims he's going to expand our military.

I...I.....really can't stand this guy. Obama's weak showing at first debate has made me nervous. He allowed Mitt to perpetuate his lies on national television. He need's to be put on blast for his bullshit, pronto. That NY Times article about the VP debate is a little reassuring. I just hope Joe is aggressive without going off message and looking like an absolute nut. Barack needs to find his balls and just tell Mitt to sit the fuck down and settle the record straight.
 
S

Sirpopopop

Member
pigeon said:
I find it funny, actually, that based on the Politico leak and then the NYT leak the #1 message Obama wanted to get out to the public is "I know I fucked it up real bad and I feel bad about it." Now that's the Democratic Party I remember.

But yeah, I think he'll do better. Is it worth pointing out again that Reagan did so badly in the first reelection debate people asked whether he was too old to be President any more?
Click to expand...

Again, this was a historically bad performance. It's not worth pointing out other performances, because there is no baseline comparison as to how terrible this debate performance was. Never has the public overwhelmingly preferred one debater to the other in a presidential election since they started this type of poll tracking.

The concern isn't just whether he can recover in the next debate. I genuinely question his capability to debate.
 
T

The Librarian

Banned
pigeon said:
I find it funny, actually, that based on the Politico leak and then the NYT leak the #1 message Obama wanted to get out to the public is "I know I fucked it up real bad and I feel bad about it." Now that's the Democratic Party I remember.

But yeah, I think he'll do better. Is it worth pointing out again that Reagan did so badly in the first reelection debate people asked whether he was too old to be President any more?
Click to expand...

Now, see here, Pigeon. Wednesday's debate was game-changing in a way that no other debate has been.

Sirpopopop said:
Again, this was a historically bad performance. It's not worth pointing out other performances, because there is no baseline comparison as to how terrible this debate performance was. Never has the public overwhelmingly preferred one debater to the other in a presidential election since they started this type of poll tracking.

The concern isn't just whether he can recover in the next debate. I genuinely question his capability to debate.
Click to expand...

He can debate, see the House Republican retreat back in 2010. It just seemed like he didn't feel like it in the first debate.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
(CNN) -- Jill Thacker was dying for a cup of coffee when she recently ran into a 7-Eleven convenience store. To her pleasant surprise, the coffee was free -- as long as she would commit to drinking it in either a red Mitt Romney cup or a blue Barack Obama cup.

"Which are you going to choose, Mom?" her son asked.

Which, indeed. A gun-owning, big-government-hating Republican, Thacker's every instinct told her to buy a Romney cup. But Thacker, 56, and her daughter have asthma -- a pre-existing condition -- and with Obama as president they'll be guaranteed the ability to buy insurance.

Thacker stood in the 7-Eleven and stared at the red and blue cups, stymied by the choice they represented.

Perhaps no other election has posed such a difficult personal decision for some conservatives: How do you vote if you're ideologically conservative, but you're benefiting, or stand to benefit, from the Affordable Care Act, often referred to as "Obamacare"?

"In 2008, health care was a very conceptual, a very theoretical issue," said Michael Traugott, a professor of political science and communication at the University of Michigan. "This year it's very concrete and real."

Some Republicans told CNN they would never vote Democrat, even though they might benefit from Obamacare, while others said they will switch their vote because of health issues.

"The real question is: Could defections in this group make a difference in states where the race is close, such as Virginia, Ohio or North Carolina?" Traugott said. "I think in those states it's so tight they could make a difference."

Romney has vowed to repeal Obamacare. In the presidential debate, the former Massachusetts governor said the "private marketplace" is already taking care of young adults who want to stay on their parents' plans so the United States doesn't need a government mandate.

However, it's not clear that insurance companies will allow young adults to stay on their parents' insurance up until age 26 without a mandate. If Obamacare is reversed, insurance companies "will make their own decisions about the coverage options they provide," according to a statement from America's Health Insurance Plans.

Jon Campbell may become one of the Republican "defectors" Traugott says could make a difference in battleground states.

Campbell, 49, has voted Republican in nearly every presidential election since he cast his vote for Ronald Reagan in 1980, but this year might be different. For two years his 22-year-old stepdaughter, a self-employed dog trainer, didn't have health insurance. Then Obamacare kicked in and she was allowed onto her father's insurance.

"If something had happened to her during those two years it would have been a disaster," Campbell says.

The Olathe, Kansas, resident is leaning toward Obama, but not just because of his stepdaughter. Campbell's wife, Barbara, has diabetes and is in the final stages of breast cancer treatment. She's now on his insurance, but if he ever lost his job, his wife would be faced with trying to buy insurance on her own and would surely be rejected.

"I'm really torn," he said. "Because of Obama, I now have a wife who can get covered. But really, at heart, I'm a limited-government kind of guy."

Campbell said if the election were held today, he'd vote for Obama, but not without a lot of reservations.

"It's really an intriguing conundrum," he said.

Jill Thacker felt "weird" as she stood there in the 7-11 in Sanford, Florida, thinking about which cup to take.

She thought about her insurance, which covers her only if "I get hit by a bus." It's the only insurance she can afford given her preexisting condition.

She thought about how she's still paying off a $22,000 emergency room bill from last year.

She thought about her 25-year-old daughter, who's on her father's insurance only because of Obamacare.

But she also thought about how, in many fundamental ways, she just doesn't like Obama.

Then she reached for the blue cup with Obama's name on it.

"I really do feel conflicted," she said. "But for me, it's all about health care. It's my number one thing."
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CNN
I like reading stuff like this, because it sort of gives me hope that not every voter in this country is a dumb fuck, and it stops me from making blanket statements about the stupidity of the general electorate. I really love it when people use their brains instead of their hearts when making these decisions. And as the political scientist in the article mentioned, a few more long-time Republicans switching their votes or staying home can mean all the difference. The polls can never catch this dynamic.
 
T

Tim-E

Member
Social studies text books are being re-written as we speak to include a few paragraphs on this HISTORICAL debate.
 
K

kaching

"GAF's biggest wanker"
Perhaps the "historical" aspect of this debate is really about how much of the country is willing to declare a candidate the winner based on how confidently he lied over and over again. We've come a long way, baby.
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
kaching said:
Perhaps the "historical" aspect of this debate is really about how much of the country is willing to declare a candidate the winner based on how confidently he lied over and over again. We've come a long way, baby.
Click to expand...

That pretty much happened in 2010. In fact, Romney repeated 2010's Lie of the Year, no shoe dropped.
 
T

Tim-E

Member
kaching said:
Perhaps the "historical" aspect of this debate is really about how much of the country is willing to declare a candidate the winner based on how confidently he lied over and over again. We've come a long way, baby.
Click to expand...

It's nothing new. This country did overwhelmingly elect Ronald Reagan twice, after all.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Sirpopopop said:
Again, this was a historically bad performance. It's not worth pointing out other performances, because there is no baseline comparison as to how terrible this debate performance was. Never has the public overwhelmingly preferred one debater to the other in a presidential election since they started this type of poll tracking.
Click to expand...

And what's your sample size on that? This is ridiculous stuff, on the order of "no President has been reelected with 8% unemployment*" and "no candidate has ever won with negative net favorables." Obama lost the debate by a historic margin, but he didn't lose the debate in a historic fashion, and barring some solid argument to the contrary, we should assume that the results will be in line with historical norms. He didn't forget what state he was in, claim that Eastern Europe was safe from Soviet domination, or compare himself to JFK. He just didn't do much. It's tough to make a Youtube clip out of "didn't do much." I think your historical understanding of debates is flawed.


* Oops, can't use that one any more.
 
G

GaimeGuy

Volunteer Deputy Campaign Director, Obama for America '16
I thought Obama looked tired, but I didn't htink it was a BAD performance.

I thought Bush got absolutely crushed in all 3 debates in 2004, though. And yet Kerry lost that election.

I don't think debates matter, nor should they under our system of campiagning, where 2 years are spent on the campaign trail and everyone is (or should be) well aware of the candidates by the time debates start in the month before the election.
 
G

GaimeGuy

Volunteer Deputy Campaign Director, Obama for America '16
PhoenixDark said:
Made more believable by Obama's inability to prove him wrong lol
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He did, though. After romney mentioned dthat $716B bullshit lie about the cuts to Medicare and Obama directly refuted him, Romney continued to shoehorn the same exact lie into 5 or 6 statements throughout the rest of the debate.

It doesn't say much for the intelligence of the american people if you can lie, be called out on it, then continue to spout the same lie immediately after you were refuted, and you come out the winner.
 
J

jbug617

Banned
CNN just played the new Obama ad going after Romney gaffes in Foreign policies. It features what happened this summer overseas and the response about the Libya attack.
 
T

The Technomancer

card-carrying scientician
RustyNails said:
CNN
I like reading stuff like this, because it sort of gives me hope that not every voter in this country is a dumb fuck, and it stops me from making blanket statements about the stupidity of the general electorate. I really love it when people use their brains instead of their hearts when making these decisions. And as the political scientist in the article mentioned, a few more long-time Republicans switching their votes or staying home can mean all the difference. The polls can never catch this dynamic.
Click to expand...

Just reaffirms very strongly why the Republicans are desperate to get Mitt into the White House just to repeal PPACA: once it goes into full effect and people actually see the good things that its doing for them, it becomes almost impossible to get rid of.
 
T

Tim-E

Member
The Technomancer said:
Just reaffirms very strongly why the Republicans are desperate to get Mitt into the White House just to repeal PPACA: once it goes into full effect and people actually see the good things that its doing for them, it becomes almost impossible to get rid of.
Click to expand...

I fully expect liberals to look back at the ACA decades from now the same way they look back at some of the stuff LBJ got through Congress.
 
S

SuperBonk

Member
The biggest problem I had with Obama's performance was that he lacked the nuance to attack Romney's talking points in the way that I'm used to him (and the Democratic party in general) doing. Every point Obama made seemed oversimplified and was a stark contrast to Bill Clinton's DNC speech.

I certainly hope Obama comes back with more vigor in the next debate, but I'm not sure if the town hall setting lends itself well to direct confrontation with Romney.
 
R

richiek

steals Justin Bieber DVDs
RustyNails said:
CNN
I like reading stuff like this, because it sort of gives me hope that not every voter in this country is a dumb fuck, and it stops me from making blanket statements about the stupidity of the general electorate. I really love it when people use their brains instead of their hearts when making these decisions. And as the political scientist in the article mentioned, a few more long-time Republicans switching their votes or staying home can mean all the difference. The polls can never catch this dynamic.
Click to expand...

At the same time, it's really frustrating to hear the cognitive dissonance coming out these people's mouths, saying stuff like "Obamacare would really benefit me my family in a major way... but I still don't like the guy."
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Tim-E said:
I fully expect liberals to look back at the ACA decades from now the same way they look back at some of the stuff LBJ got through Congress.
Click to expand...

You mean with incorrect concern for the budget and a lack of historical awareness at the importance of such groundbreaking social programs?
 
S

Sirpopopop

Member
Dax01 said:
He can debate, see the House Republican retreat back in 2010. It just seemed like he didn't feel like it in the first debate.
Click to expand...

Wasn't that more of a Q&A session than a proper debate?

That's going to be how the Town Hall setting will be structured. I expect Obama will do well there.

However, debate #3 looms large. I have a feeling the town hall debate will be brushed aside, unless Obama pulls a big win like Romney's win in the first debate.

Gaimeguy: The key is Obama needed to specifically call out that $716 billion number. There are lots of low information voters out there, and that's whom he needs to speak to during these debates.
 
T

Tim-E

Member
pigeon said:
You mean with incorrect concern for the budget and a lack of historical awareness at the importance of such groundbreaking social programs?
Click to expand...

Do liberals today not appreciate the significance of that legislation? Maybe I'm giving them a bit too much credit, then.
 
K

kaching

"GAF's biggest wanker"
Tim-E said:
It's nothing new. This country did overwhelmingly elect Ronald Reagan twice, after all.
Click to expand...
Right, which is why I'm saying that if there's going to be anything historical about this debate, it would have to be whatever degree to which we increasingly celebrate and relish getting the wool pulled over our heads as "victory". Beyond that, it's nothing new.
 
D

Diablos

Member
06py9.png


Debates don't matter?

That's pretty damn significant. Also confusing because other polling is suggesting that Mitt erased his lead. Who's right here?


Sounds like Obama was really struggling with debate prep:
Like other presidents, Mr. Obama’s debate preparations were hindered by his day job, his practice sessions often canceled or truncated because of events, advisers said. One session took place just after he addressed a service for the four Americans slain in Libya, leaving him distracted…

Advisers had seen two presidents during practice debates, one who had been listless and passive two nights before and another energetic and aggressive the next night. It turned out the former was the one who showed up in Denver…

Mr. Obama’s alternating performances left aides walking off Air Force One in Denver looking worried.
Click to expand...
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/obama-often-struggled-in-debate-prep-had-to
 
S

Sealda

Banned
The New Yorkers The political scene
NPRs Its all about politics
KCRWs left, right and center
KQEDs forum podcast
Take actions news

I mean a whole bunch of good quality non extreme right analysts in podcast all say one thing: Big win for Romney, horrible performance by Obama.

Yet its hillarious reading poli(obama)-gaf as the debate was happening, in complete denial of what was actually happening. Just embarassing to read how people were completely reluctant to take in or accept anything that would crush their world view.

Obama performed bad in so many ways and Romney good in so many ways that crazy-gafs 1 sentence arguments for the result only shows 1 thing and that is: narrow mindedness
 
G

GaimeGuy

Volunteer Deputy Campaign Director, Obama for America '16
Sirpopopop said:
Wasn't that more of a Q&A session than a proper debate?

That's going to be how the Town Hall setting will be structured. I expect Obama will do well there.

However, debate #3 looms large. I have a feeling the town hall debate will be brushed aside, unless Obama pulls a big win like Romney's win in the first debate.

Gaimeguy: The key is Obama needed to specifically call out that $716 billion number. There are lots of low information voters out there, and that's whom he needs to speak to during these debates.
Click to expand...

he did. He called it out specifically, elaborated on what the $716B was and how romney's classification of it was a lie and the opposite of reality. That did not stop Romney from continuing to repeat the lie (shoehorned on to answers for o ther questions so Obama wouldn't have the time to re-address it).

Jim Lehrer probably should have called Romney out on continuing to repeat a prior statement that Obama had directly refuted.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Sealda said:
The New Yorkers The political scene
NPRs Its all about politics
KCRWs left, right and center
KQEDs forum podcast
Take actions news

I mean a whole bunch of good quality non extreme right analysts in podcast all say one thing: Big win for Romney, horrible performance by Obama.

Yet its hillarious reading poli(obama)-gaf as the debate was happening, in complete denial of what was actually happening. Just embarassing to read how people were completely reluctant to take in or accept anything that would crush their world view.

Obama performed bad in so many ways and Romney good in so many ways that crazy-gafs 1 sentence arguments for the result only shows 1 thing and that is: narrow mindedness
Click to expand...

People spent months making the basic assumption that Obama would effortlessly expose Romney's bullshit in a debate, even if he wasn't a great debater. When that didn't happen they moved the goal posts to argue debates don't matter. Maybe they don't overall - but a loss of that magnitude matters, as seen by multiple polls now.
 
T

Tim-E

Member
Sealda said:
Yet its hillarious reading poli(obama)-gaf as the debate was happening, in complete denial of what was actually happening. Just embarassing to read how people were completely reluctant to take in or accept anything that would crush their world view.
Click to expand...

You think that coverage of Obama's poor debate performance is "crushing" the liberal worldview? None of the coverage has anything to do with the substance of what Obama (or Romney) said and has everything to do with performance.


PhoenixDark said:
People spent months making the basic assumption that Obama would effortlessly expose Romney's bullshit in a debate, even if he wasn't a great debater. When that didn't happen they moved the goal posts to argue debates don't matter. Maybe they don't overall - but a loss of that magnitude matters, as seen by multiple polls now.
Click to expand...

lol PD criticizing others for moving goal posts.
 
D

Diablos

Member
reilo said:
You, two minutes ago:
Click to expand...
Yes, so? You laughed at me for no real reason and I corrected you and said that Gallup is the source saying the RV prefs for Pres are tied now.

So two minutes prior I posted a Gallup image and then after someone insulted me for being "crazy" for doing so, I simply reminded you that I didn't say this was a pretty important shift, Gallup did.

What's your point?
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
Poligaf for the most part held onto the belief dems would hold the house in 2010. You can't use this thread as a gauge of who is winning.
 
R

reilo

learning some important life lessons from magical Negroes
Diablos said:
Yes, so? You laughed at me for no real reason and I corrected you and said that Gallup is the source saying the RV prefs for Pres are tied now.

So two minutes prior I posted a Gallup image and then after someone insulted me for being "crazy" for doing so, I simply reminded you that I didn't say this was a pretty important shift, Gallup did.

What's your point?
Click to expand...

That, again, for the millionth time: it's all about the EVs. Look at a damn map.
 
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