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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.

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H

Half and half

Member
At least Biden has the new unemployment rate and the recent deficit reduction numbers to fall back onto if Ryan's numbers confuse him too much.

Throw out some numbers of his own and just sound convincing.

Edit:
Presented as a debate strategy, not necessarily as good things.
 
S

syllogism

Member
Rasmussen has the race tied at 48 again, but perhaps more interestingly he is painting a picture of a race that has been and remains remarkably steady. I suppose it indicates belief that he either thinks Romney debate bounce is fading or he didn't get much of a bounce

While there have been modest swings in recent months that have favored one candidate over the other, the overall picture is of a race that is both stable and very close. Over the past 100 days of tracking, Romney and Obama have been within two points of each other 72 times. Additionally, on 89 of those 100 days, the candidates have been within three points of each other. That is exceedingly close in a poll with a three percentage-point margin of error.
Click to expand...
 
M

Measley

Junior Member
iamshadowlark said:
I'm thinking this happens either way.
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I don't. Obama wouldn't have invaded Iraq like Bush did in 2003. Romney's FP team is made up of Bush vets who are all for committing U.S. troops to fighting wars in the middle east. Also Republicans have no desire to leave Iraq or Afghanistan. Obama wrapped up Iraq and is wrapping up Afghanistan, much to the disdain of Republicans. Finally, the way Obama handled the Libyan war was a stark contrast to how Bush and by proxy Romney would have handled the war. I believe that Bush would have sent in U.S. forces to occupy the country, and if Romney was president, he would have done the same.
 
G

giga

Member
55% of Virginia voters support federal funding for PBS, 35% opposed. 82/10 among Dems, 55/36 with indys, 20/64 with Republicans
Click to expand...
Fiscal conservatives care deeply about that .012% of our federal budget.
 
H

Half and half

Member
Measley said:
I don't. Obama wouldn't have invaded Iraq like Bush did in 2003. Romney's FP team is made up of Bush vets who are all for committing U.S. troops to fighting wars in the middle east. Also Republicans have no desire to leave Iraq or Afghanistan. Obama wrapped up Iraq and is wrapping up Afghanistan, much to the disdain of Republicans. Finally, the way Obama handled the Libyan war was a stark contrast to how Bush and by proxy Romney would have handled the war. I believe that Bush would have sent in U.S. forces to occupy the country, and if Romney was president, he would have done the same.
Click to expand...

I agree with the way Obama handled Libya. I remember they were taking a bit of time working out a course of action while McCain's aggressive ass was jumping up and down demanding action.

We'd occupy Libya if McCain had his way. And Romney's sabre rattling is making think the same of him as well.
 
T

Tim-E

Member
giga said:
Fiscal conservatives care deeply about that .012% of our federal budget.
Click to expand...

I'm pretty thrilled that Romney brought that up and it was the main takeaway from the debate. It's one of those stupid conservative ideas that will accomplish nothing and now it's being criticized out in the open by everyone.
 
M

Measley

Junior Member
Half and half said:
I agree with the way Obama handled Libya. I remember they were taking a bit of time working out a course of action while McCain's aggressive ass was jumping up and down demanding action.

We'd occupy Libya if McCain had his way. And Romney's sabre rattling is making think the same of him as well.
Click to expand...

I prefer the Biden approach to war. I'm glad Obama adopted it. It's the way you should wage war in the 21st century.

It's also telling that Biden actually had a son over in Iraq, while Romney's 5 sons never saw a day in uniform. Keep your kids safe, but smirk while sending other people's kids to die. Gotta love it.
 
O

Owzers

Member
Morning Joe show was hard to watch......talking about Democrats still moping about the debate, still talking about the debate, mostly ignoring the economic numbers in favor of talking about the debate. I've given up on watching the rest of todays show on my dvr and am moving along to ESPN First Take. Football drama > Debate drama.
 
T

Tim-E

Member
sillymonkey321 said:
Morning Joe show was hard to watch......talking about Democrats still moping about the debate, still talking about the debate, mostly ignoring the economic numbers in favor of talking about the debate. I've given up on watching the rest of todays show on my dvr and am moving along to ESPN First Take. Football drama > Debate drama.
Click to expand...

It's not worth watching at all. I'd stop DVRing it entirely.

My office background noise has become the POTUS channel on SiriusXM. It can be kind of grating at times, but it works.
 
B

Byakuya769

Member
pigeon said:
Remember that more staunch Republicans than ever before identify as independents.
Click to expand...

Nah, independent thinking just has a really Republican bias. Ignore any evidence to the contrary, or the mass faux exodus in party affiliation post Bush.

I just really wonder how much cognitive dissonance it takes to label yourself a political independent but continue using the same sources of information and voting in the exact same fashion as you did when you "were" a Republican.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Tim-E said:
From the New York Times:
Click to expand...

Good luck with that

The entire point of painting Romney as a right wing conservative instead of a flop flopper was that voters could believe Romney might move back to the center after the election. Now they're going back to that dangerous strategy out of desperation? This doesn't sound like the Obama camp of old

Romney's favorables are moving up just as more people pay attention. A flip flop focus makes even less sense against an opponent with recovering favorable numbers...
 
S

Sirpopopop

Member
PhoenixDark said:
Good luck with that

The entire point of painting Romney as a right wing conservative instead of a flop flopper was that voters could believe Romney might move back to the center after the election. Now they're going back to that dangerous strategy out of desperation? This doesn't sound like the Obama camp of old

Romney's favorables are moving up just as more people pay attention. A flip flop focus makes even less sense against an opponent with recovering favorable numbers...
Click to expand...

Calling out flip flopping works. See: John Kerry.

Romney changed his strategy. It was a good move on his part. The democrats need to change to counter his new strategy.

Also: The VP debates won't mean much, one way or the other. Unimportant. Of course, if Biden wins, I expect PoliGAF to point out how this completely erases Obama's first round. That wouldn't be the right takeaway to take. It's just a VP.

I also fully expect Ryan to pivot back to the right in this debate. Right now, they are preparing for a centrist debate. If I was the Republican team, I'd do another pivot and force Joe to think on his feet. Make him say something that will sound bad on a sound bite.
 
T

teruterubozu

Member
The VP debates won't be that huge, but if Biden gaffes his way through, then the rhetoric will be "the disinterested president and his senile VP". Can't afford that at all.
 
R

RDreamer

Member
PhoenixDark said:
Good luck with that

The entire point of painting Romney as a right wing conservative instead of a flop flopper was that voters could believe Romney might move back to the center after the election. Now they're going back to that dangerous strategy out of desperation? This doesn't sound like the Obama camp of old

Romney's favorables are moving up just as more people pay attention. A flip flop focus makes even less sense against an opponent with recovering favorable numbers...
Click to expand...

Depends on when you do the flip flopper painting. Painting him as a flip flopper when he just got out of the primaries would be ridiculous, because then people would believe he was just telling the republicans what they wanted to hear, and he'd go back to the center if he won. If you paint him as a flip flopper using what he said during the primary and during the beginning of his general election campaign as the benchmark it works a different way, especially since they've already painted him as a far right conservative. People will think he'll go back to being a far right wing conservative, and right now he's telling them what they want to hear.
 
O

Owzers

Member
Romney foreign policy speech will be glorious.

I'm predicting at least 50 mentions of the words "weak" or "strong" to separate himself from Obama with 0 policy differences.

RDreamer said:
Depends on when you do the flip flopper painting. Painting him as a flip flopper when he just got out of the primaries would be ridiculous, because then people would believe he was just telling the republicans what they wanted to hear, and he'd go back to the center if he won. If you paint him as a flip flopper using what he said during the primary and during the beginning of his general election campaign as the benchmark it works a different way, especially since they've already painted him as a far right conservative. People will think he'll go back to being a far right wing conservative, and right now he's telling them what they want to hear.
Click to expand...

One annoying thing about most media coverage that says Romeny is moving to the center is that he's only doing so with is words. He's for wall street reform...see that center shift? His plans are to repeal Dodd Frank and replace it with nothing as of now. Is that a center move? He gets to tell 50 milliion people that his health care plan covers people with pre-existing conditions, and then 1000 people find out from his campaign staff immediately after that no, Romney's plan doesn't. But he appears in the center for 90 minutes so it's cool.
 
S

Shadow Hog

Member
I've noticed this one ad getting a fair bit of play on the radio station I listen to trying to pin the super committee's failure to reach a deficit reduction plan - and the resulting sequestration/blind cuts to all spending - entirely on Obama, and using this as evidence that "we can't afford four more years".

I can't be the only one who remembers that that was a failure on both sides, and mostly related to Congress - not the president - correct?
 
R

RDreamer

Member
sillymonkey321 said:
One annoying thing about most media coverage that says Romeny is moving to the center is that he's only doing so with is words. He's for wall street reform...see that center shift? His plans are to repeal Dodd Frank and replace it with nothing as of now. Is that a center move? He gets to tell 50 milliion people that his health care plan covers people with pre-existing conditions, and then 1000 people find out from his campaign staff immediately after that no, Romney's plan doesn't. But he appears in the center for 90 minutes so it's cool.
Click to expand...

Right, that's definitely the other thing Obama needs to hit on with the "flip flopping" message. He's not really moving to the center. He's using doublespeak to make his shitty policies sound good. The Obama campaign needs to really let people know what he means when he says this stuff.

I also just think they need to keep using the line that even Romney's campaign had to fact check him. That hits pretty hard.
 
S

Sirpopopop

Member
I bet Romney wins the foreign policy debate.

I have zero faith in Obama's ability to point out the following items:

1. Romney's Russian policy is stupid.
It is: We have the opportunity to tap an vast untapped market in Russia due to them joining the WTO, but we can't, because Congress hasn't repealed Jackson-Vanik. We have signed a nuclear arms reduction treaty with Russia.
This is the number one imperative of Obama. He needs to point out how Romney's comments have damaged our ability have a missile defense shield in Eastern Europe. He has to point out how Romney has already proven himself to be reckless and uninformed in the field of foreign policy.

He will not make any comments about this at all during the debate, because he's a terrible debater. See: Being unable to handle the basic debate tactic of a position shift.

2. That he has restored faith in America's ability overseas.
See: defense of the Nobel Prize as a recognition by the international community for his election, his vast approval ratings in Europe, and among our old traditional allies. Contrast with Romney continuing Bush's failed policy of leaning heavily on Poland & Israel, and insulting GB during the Olympic Games.

3. That he is standing up to China. See: raising cases in WTO regarding subsidizing industries. Rising naval presence in the open seas.

4. That Libya was not a failure, because of the death of the U.S. ambassador. That the government there is in active cooperation with us to find the killers, and more importantly, the people of the country are even helping out.

5. That he is responsible for drawing down the war in Afghanistan, and freeing up the resources there.

6. That Romney's views towards the Palestinians are in fact bigoted and not in line with the ideals of the United States, and the free world. We do not believe in discriminating against cultural groups.

7. We have imposed incredibly severe sanctions on Iran for their nuclear policy that are crippling their economy. They aren't anywhere close to acquiring a nuclear weapon.

I'm sorry, but the guy responsible for that debacle on October 3rd doesn't inspire me to make even a single one of those points.

The only thing he will say is, "We killed Osama bin Laden," and Romney will just counter with Libya & Iran non-stop, and stating that the only thing Obama is good for in terms of foreign policy is issuing a kill order. Fuck that, that's not enough to win the debate. Not even close.

Also: http://www.gallup.com/poll/157907/romney-narrows-vote-gap-historic-debate-win.aspx

Yeah, this wasn't the worst debate performance of all time by a candidate. It seems like the polls are agreeing with my viewpoint more than the folks who viewed me as insane for stating otherwise.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
teruterubozu said:
The VP debates won't be that huge, but if Biden gaffes his way through, then the rhetoric will be "the disinterested president and his senile VP". Can't afford that at all.
Click to expand...
He won't get through, and people will get the impression that the challengers are more competent. That was the danger of a big Obama loss, and tbh I don't think anyone expected it. I figured Obama would lose, but not big enough to change things significantly; Romney was always going to improve his situation, the question was by how much.

Multiple polls show Romney with improving favorables and better numbers with independents. Gallup is tied, other polls are getting tight, republicans are suddenly more enthused. Yet apparently non of that matters. We wouldn't be in this situation if Obama decided to show up for 90 minutes
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
PhoenixDark said:
He won't get through, and people will get the impression that the challengers are more competent. That was the danger of a big Obama loss, and tbh I don't think anyone expected it. I figured Obama would lose, but not big enough to change things significantly; Romney was always going to improve his situation, the question was by how much.

Multiple polls show Romney with improving favorables and better numbers with independents. Gallup is tied, other polls are getting tight, republicans are suddenly more enthused. Yet apparently non of that matters. We wouldn't be in this situation if Obama decided to show up for 90 minutes
Click to expand...

Yup, Obama have Romney a good fighting chance when he could have pretty much ended it.
 
D

Downhome

Member
Sirpopopop said:
I bet Romney wins the foreign policy debate.
Click to expand...

After the previous debate, my first thought was "wow, if Obama failed so badly in this first debate, he sure better be strong in the foreign policy debate". If Obama doesn't just flat out knock it out of the park on FP, and Romney has no more major gaffes, then Romney will be the next president of the United States.
 
T

Tim-E

Member
Sirpopopop said:
Yeah, this wasn't the worst debate performance of all time by a candidate. It seems like the polls are agreeing with my viewpoint more than the folks who viewed me as insane for stating otherwise.
Click to expand...


Not once did I say that the debates wouldn't produce a bump for Romney. The challenger typically gets a bump from the first debate regardless. They are just that, though, bumps. They don't change the course of the election. Nate Silver and PPP have already said that his bump appears to be receding already and that it wasn't a very big bump. The Fivethirtyeight model already was expecting a 2-3% bump for Romney, which is what we're seeing now. The model still projects that Obama has a near 80% chance of winning. I have said repeatedly that this bump will not result in Romney winning, and I stand by that.

Edit: I see you edited my name out of your post.
 
Z

Zzoram

Member
Obama should probably bring up how Romney's one attempt at a foreign policy trip managed to offend every country his visited.
 
T

TacticalFox88

Banned
Sirpopopop said:
I bet Romney wins the foreign policy debate.

I have zero faith in Obama's ability to point out the following items:

1. Romney's Russian policy is stupid.
It is: We have the opportunity to tap an vast untapped market in Russia due to them joining the WTO, but we can't, because Congress hasn't repealed Jackson-Vanik. We have signed a nuclear arms reduction treaty with Russia.
This is the number one imperative of Obama. He needs to point out how Romney's comments have damaged our ability have a missile defense shield in Eastern Europe. He has to point out how Romney has already proven himself to be reckless and uninformed in the field of foreign policy.

He will not make any comments about this at all during the debate, because he's a terrible debater. See: Being unable to handle the basic debate tactic of a position shift.

2. That he has restored faith in America's ability overseas.
See: defense of the Nobel Prize as a recognition by the international community for his election, his vast approval ratings in Europe, and among our old traditional allies. Contrast with Romney continuing Bush's failed policy of leaning heavily on Poland & Israel, and insulting GB during the Olympic Games.

3. That he is standing up to China. See: raising cases in WTO regarding subsidizing industries. Rising naval presence in the open seas.

4. That Libya was not a failure, because of the death of the U.S. ambassador. That the government there is in active cooperation with us to find the killers, and more importantly, the people of the country are even helping out.

5. That he is responsible for drawing down the war in Afghanistan, and freeing up the resources there.

6. That Romney's views towards the Palestinians are in fact bigoted and not in line with the ideals of the United States, and the free world. We do not believe in discriminating against cultural groups.

7. We have imposed incredibly severe sanctions on Iran for their nuclear policy that are crippling their economy. They aren't anywhere close to acquiring a nuclear weapon.

I'm sorry, but the guy responsible for that debacle on October 3rd doesn't inspire me to make even a single one of those points.

The only thing he will say is, "We killed Osama bin Laden," and Romney will just counter with Libya & Iran non-stop, and stating that the only thing Obama is good for in terms of foreign policy is issuing a kill order. Fuck that, that's not enough to win the debate. Not even close.

Also: http://www.gallup.com/poll/157907/romney-narrows-vote-gap-historic-debate-win.aspx

Yeah, this wasn't the worst debate performance of all time by a candidate. It seems like the polls are agreeing with my viewpoint more than the folks who viewed me as insane for stating otherwise.
Click to expand...

Downhome said:
After the previous debate, my first thought was "wow, if Obama failed so badly in this first debate, he sure better be strong in the foreign policy debate". If Obama doesn't just flat out knock it out of the park on FP, and Romney has no more major gaffes, then Romney will be the next president of the United States.
Click to expand...


What in the flying fuck at these two posts.

I love how you both assume Obama lives in a bubble and isn't aware of how massively he fucked up last week and assume it's going to repeat ad infinitum over the course of the entire month.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
cartoon_soldier said:
Yup, Obama have Romney a good fighting chance when he could have pretty much ended it.
Click to expand...

What happened to killer instinct? Romney was behind going into the debate, everyone knew he would be aggressive and very well prepared. An Obama win or even a tie would probably have settled this thing; no one would be talking about the vp debate today, that's for sure.

The problem is that Obama is not a good debater and is too arrogant to take it seriously; he's known to loath the mere idea of them, and that certainly played into his uncaring demeanor last week. This won't magically change next time, it's who he is. Romney will remain coherent and look presidential while morphing into 2002 Romney. The damage is already done: it's unlikely the next debates will get similar ratings/views. Even if Obama wins the next debate it won't be a historical blowout matching last week

I don't expect much from the foreign policy debate either. If Obama plans to let Romney spew bullshit he might as well stay home because he'll lose again. He needs to engage Romney with an actual debate, and challenge Romney's answers instead of giving talking points or waiting for the mods to step in
 
T

Tamanon

Banned
I figured out Romney's plan. He's going to stake out a foreign policy agenda in the speech today, then in the debate when Obama goes after it, just say "No, that's not my policy"

???

Profit.
 
O

Owzers

Member
Romney has that smug satisfaction that makes me uncomfortable watching him. He takes such pleasure in lying to the american people.

Romney making a case to go back into Iraq. I like it. Let's go!
 
The Lamonster

The Lamonster

Member
Zzoram said:
Obama should probably bring up how Romney's one attempt at a foreign policy trip managed to offend every country his visited.
Click to expand...

You guys tend to get so granular with "if this, then that" when all it takes is some convincing lying in one debate to completely change the landscape of the race with the idiot voting public.

No, it doesn't matter if Obama makes a good point in the next debate. It doesn't matter who tells the truth. It just matters who looks better on camera to all the low information retards out there.
 
S

Sirpopopop

Member
Tim-E said:
Not once did I say that the debates wouldn't produce a bump for Romney. The challenger typically gets a bump from the first debate regardless. They are just that, though, bumps. They don't change the course of the election. Nate Silver and PPP have already said that his bump appears to be receding already and that it wasn't a very big bump. The Fivethirtyeight model already was expecting a 2-3% bump for Romney, which is what we're seeing now. The model still projects that Obama has a near 80% chance of winning. I have said repeatedly that this bump will not result in Romney winning, and I stand by that.
Click to expand...

Eh, you made the following post:

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=42859287&postcount=18813

That could clearly be interpreted as a shot to my viewpoint that this was a debacle of a debate performance.

Though, you weren't the biggest offender of the post-debate spin by a long shot.

TacticalFox88 said:
What in the flying fuck at these two posts.

I love how you both assume Obama lives in a bubble and isn't aware of how massively he fucked up last week and assume it's going to repeat ad infinitum over the course of the entire month.
Click to expand...

He should have been aware that Romney had it in him to change tacks. It's been his MO for years.

Obama needs to show me. He hasn't done anything yet to show me that he has the ability to make his case. Romney gave him plenty of openings in the last debate, and he did a horrific job of hitting the holes.
 
M

Measley

Junior Member
The Lamonster said:
You guys tend to get so granular with "if this, then that" when all it takes is some convincing lying in one debate to completely change the landscape of the race with the idiot voting public.

No, it doesn't matter if Obama makes a good point in the next debate. It doesn't matter who tells the truth. It just matters who looks better on camera to all the low information retards out there.
Click to expand...

Exactly.

Which is why mentioning the 47% and Bain didn't mean shit. Romney would just lie about it anyway. Obama just needs to come off aggressive and catch Romney slipping. Truth sadly doesn't matter.
 
O

Owzers

Member
saelz8 said:
What is Romney saying that's not different than Obama? Apart from the spending.
Click to expand...

He will support our allies and put fear into our enemies. A real policy shift. Also, Iran will be put on notice.

I didn't follow Romney's Afghanistan agenda. What is he doing in 2014 that Obama isn't?
 
R

RDreamer

Member
All I'm seeing in this speech is dollar signs. Dude wants to spend a fuckton more on a military that already spends a fuckton. This guy's in the same party that wants above all else to reduce the deficit. At this rate are we even going to have any real domestic spending left after this idiot's through? We're going to be purely a war economy under this dolt...
 
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