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[ryutaro's mama]

Obama's leading 5-10 pts. in every region, except the sound where Romney leads by a whopping 22 pts.

So, most of those people who disapprove, are in states that weren't going to go for Obama anyway.

So they aren't gonna fix their model?

 

[AniHawk]

Hmm....I'll say that he'll probably stay at about that level, maybe go as high as 70 if the debate performances start affecting the polls. Not bad, and Nate's map has Colorado leaning blue again so there's that (very slim margin though).

Also, unless that PPP poll for Ohio on Saturday show significant improvement for Romney, I think we can shut the door on it. I doubt there's a bunch of voters waiting with baited breath for the outcome of the last election to make a choice in a state that's already been early voting for a while.

So that's Ohio and Nevada, which is pretty much game over, right?

with wisconsin looking weird, i won't be comfortable until colorado or virginia move over to where nevada and ohio are looking. ppp hinted that co's doing better than nh and ia right now. obama can win if he loses virginia, new hampshire, wisconsin, iowa, florida, and keeps ohio, nevada, and colorado.

 

[Juice]

This was discussed in the debate thread. I don't think the binder full of women story was so bad. Actually conservatives should be kinda pissed because Mitt Romney just endorsed Affirmative Action!

But the phrase "binder full of women" is quite goofy and brings up a weird visual. And I think they are using it to encapsulate other things such as flex-time so they can go home & cook dinner, single moms cause gun violence, anti-choice policy view, did not support Lilly Ledbetter act, etc.

How dare you use the word weird. We all know that's an anti-Mormon dog whistle

 

[AniHawk]

Big Bird blew up because it was the only thing the left had to really hammer Romney on from the first debate.

and it didn't really blow up. it was just a thing liberals did on the internet and maybe a station kinda covered (it did get parodied at knott's berry farm for 'the hanging' so i guess that's something).

the binders thing is something even local news stations are talking about. i was kinda hoping the libya moment would have been bigger, but i think it goes to show that people here really don't give a shit about libya and never will.

 

[NullPointer]

So he had to get this work.

If they ever get to me... If I... turn. If I get mine and say... to hell with the rest of you leeches. If I go beyond the point of no return - I know I can count on you to do what has to be done.

 

[Drakeon]

and it didn't really blow up. it was just a thing liberals did on the internet and maybe a station kinda covered (it did get parodied at knott's berry farm for 'the hanging' so i guess that's something).

the binders thing is something even local news stations are talking about. i was kinda hoping the libya moment would have been bigger, but i think it goes to show that people here really don't give a shit about libya and never will.

It's funny the things that the media/people latch on to. I didn't even pay much attention to the binders comment when it was made to be honest.

 

[Juice]

and it didn't really blow up. it was just a thing liberals did on the internet and maybe a station kinda covered (it did get parodied at knott's berry farm for 'the hanging' so i guess that's something).

the binders thing is something even local news stations are talking about. i was kinda hoping the libya moment would have been bigger, but i think it goes to show that people here really don't give a shit about libya and never will.

And why should they? I think it was terrific stagecraft last night, but the Libya incident would have disappeared from the news after a few days if the Romney campaign weren't desperately grasping for straws to appear credible on foreign policy.

 

[SmokeMaxX]

I hope Intrade moves down soon. I tried to get money in while it was under $6 but Paypal decided that night to suspend my account due to potentially fraudulent activity. Now I actually have funds and it's $6.50 a share. Yuck. I can't really see it moving down either considering how close we are to the election and with Obama polls dominating the news for the next week (even longer if he hits the third debate out of the park). Oh well, I'll sit on my funds and hope Romney gets one good poll soon so I can strike.

In other news, CNN finally decides to take a stand?
They have an article "Obama bounces back, dominates debate"

The Alpha Male showed up tonight.
In the second debate, President Barack Obama came. He saw. And he kicked butt.

http://www.cnn.com/2012/10/17/opinion/opinion-second-debate-roundup/index.html

Eh? Although I guess that plays into the 1-1 going into Game 3 narrative.

 

[bananas]

I hope Intrade moves down soon. I tried to get money in while it was under $6 but Paypal decided that night to suspend my account due to potentially fraudulent activity. Now I actually have funds and it's $6.50 a share. Yuck. I can't really see it moving down either considering how close we are to the election and with Obama polls dominating the news for the next week (even longer if he hits the third debate out of the park). Oh well, I'll sit on my funds and hope Romney gets one good poll soon so I can strike.

In other news, CNN finally decides to take a stand?
They have an article "Obama bounces back, dominates debate"

http://www.cnn.com/2012/10/17/opinion/opinion-second-debate-roundup/index.html

Eh? Although I guess that plays into the 1-1 going into Game 3 narrative.

Romney mentions binder full of women. Obama came, saw. Not necessarily in that order.

 

[Trakdown]

with wisconsin looking weird, i won't be comfortable until colorado or virginia move over to where nevada and ohio are looking. ppp hinted that co's doing better than nh and ia right now. obama can win if he loses virginia, new hampshire, wisconsin, iowa, florida, and keeps ohio, nevada, and colorado.

538's still got a 76% chance of Obama winning WI even with that latest poll. Methinks that was just an outlier.

 

[smurfx]

In other news, CNN finally decides to take a stand?
They have an article "Obama bounces back, dominates debate"

http://www.cnn.com/2012/10/17/opinion/opinion-second-debate-roundup/index.html

Eh? Although I guess that plays into the 1-1 going into Game 3 narrative.

they probably saw people bashing the shit out of them and decided to stop being 50/50.

 

[AniHawk]

I hope Intrade moves down soon. I tried to get money in while it was under $6 but Paypal decided that night to suspend my account due to potentially fraudulent activity. Now I actually have funds and it's $6.50 a share. Yuck. I can't really see it moving down either considering how close we are to the election and with Obama polls dominating the news for the next week (even longer if he hits the third debate out of the park). Oh well, I'll sit on my funds and hope Romney gets one good poll soon so I can strike.

In other news, CNN finally decides to take a stand?
They have an article "Obama bounces back, dominates debate"

http://www.cnn.com/2012/10/17/opinion/opinion-second-debate-roundup/index.html

Eh? Although I guess that plays into the 1-1 going into Game 3 narrative.

after the binders thing blew up, i think the verdict is that obama won, despite ignoring their own polls saying so last night.

also, today may be your last chance to get in on a 'cheap' price. this debate probably won't tick much either way, but more polling showing decent leads in places like colorado and iowa will start to seal the deal.

 

[Black Mamba]

Yo Mamba, tell me why the Gallup poll is so counter to everything else right now.

Is it the dirty dirty South driving the numbers wacky or something more?

That's the only thing I could rationalize. It makes no sense, otherwise.

IBD/TIPPS has Romney only 50-43 in the south, fwiw. None of the other trackers give a breakdown nor do I see one for ABC, Georgetown, etc.

It could be a combo of way too high results in the South and not weighting them down enough. Who knows. It's a very weird poll result, that's for sure.



On a different topic, someone I'm talking with told me housing starts improving isn't a good thing because we're not at 2006 prices. not enough facepalms..

 

[SmokeMaxX]

People should infiltrate conservative forums, get them disgruntled with Romney and get them to watch this:
Larry King to moderate third-party debate

Democrats and Republicans are keeping tabs on Johnson and Goode, two ex-Republicans who could be factors in key battleground states.

 

[NullPointer]

I think the binders comment is just a quick way to reference what was a horrible answer to the equal pay question.

Instead of addressing pay, he seemed to address employers not wanting to hire women because they spend too much time taking care of the family. It was a really odd tactic. I mean that whole nonsense about making employers feel more comfortable with flex schedules....

This right here is what bugged me - the binders full of women thing doesn't have as much substance to it as much as its odd sounding and easy meme material.

 

[jamesinclair]

This faux-outrage over the binder comment is absolutely mystifying to me.



What on earth is offensive about that story?

There's a thread in OT suggesting that the claim is completely false - which is a fair point of attack - but that's not what the outrage is all about. Apparently the phrase 'binder full of women' is itself derogatory. The fuck?

1) Just the comment is absurd, and humorous. I have a folder on my pc full of women.
2) The concept that after being a SUPER SUCCESSFUL BUSINESSMAN for so many years, Mitt couldnt think of a single woman to hire and had to get a study done to dig someone out.
3) Mitt is all about the affirmative action apparently, which the GOP hates
4) Women need to be let home at 5pm to cook dinner

 

[pigeon]

after the binders thing blew up, i think the verdict is that obama won, despite ignoring their own polls saying so last night.

also, today may be your last chance to get in on a 'cheap' price. this debate probably won't tick much either way, but more polling showing decent leads in places like colorado and iowa will start to seal the deal.

Yglesias noted that the Intrade graph is actually a consistently slow upwards trend if you assume the big jump and fall was basically speculative movement.

That's the only thing I could rationalize. It makes no sense, otherwise.

IBD/TIPPS has Romney only 50-43 in the south, fwiw. None of the other trackers give a breakdown nor do I see one for ABC, Georgetown, etc.

It could be a combo of way too high results in the South and not weighting them down enough. Who knows. It's a very weird poll result, that's for sure.

Nate basically admitted on Twitter that if it weren't for the Gallup poll, Obama would have popped up significantly more in the standings tonight, so if that starts turning around, expect the overall 538 picture to do the same pretty rapidly.

 

[thekad]

So the debate should slightly effect (or not effect) the tracking polls tomorrow. Ready yourself for bad news for Obama.

 

[Forever]

I hope Intrade moves down soon. I tried to get money in while it was under $6 but Paypal decided that night to suspend my account due to potentially fraudulent activity. Now I actually have funds and it's $6.50 a share. Yuck. I can't really see it moving down either considering how close we are to the election and with Obama polls dominating the news for the next week (even longer if he hits the third debate out of the park). Oh well, I'll sit on my funds and hope Romney gets one good poll soon so I can strike.

In other news, CNN finally decides to take a stand?
They have an article "Obama bounces back, dominates debate"

http://www.cnn.com/2012/10/17/opinion/opinion-second-debate-roundup/index.html

Eh? Although I guess that plays into the 1-1 going into Game 3 narrative.

They have a lot of opinions there, including one by piece of shit Ari Fleischer.

 

[AniHawk]

So the debate should slightly effect (or not effect) the tracking polls tomorrow. Ready yourself for bad news for Obama.

if that's all it is, then at least the bleeding has stopped. keeping things where they are now probably means an obama win.

however seeing independents break for obama in the post-debate polls makes me believe long-term this should produce at least a 1-2 point boost for him, permanently.

 

[Black Mamba]

Yglesias noted that the Intrade graph is actually a consistently slow upwards trend if you assume the big jump and fall was basically speculative movement.



Nate basically admitted on Twitter that if it weren't for the Gallup poll, Obama would have popped up significantly more in the standings tonight, so if that starts turning around, expect the overall 538 picture to do the same pretty rapidly.

Yeah, the Gallup polls is weighting all the other polls down heavily since it's such an outlier.

I'm with Nate in that you don't throw a poll away. Let's just hope either Gallup notices something is wrong and tries to correct it or that the random sampling works itself out soon enough.

 

[Forever]

So 61.1% was Obama's floor this election season, barring some kind of legit October surprise.

Up to 65.7% without even factoring in the second debate.

 

[bananas]

So 61.1% was Obama's floor this election season, barring some kind of legit October surprise.

Up to 65.7% without even factoring in the second debate.

Bad news for Obama.

 

[Black Mamba]

"If the president was right last night that he immediately called the Benghazi attack a terrorist act, why did vice president Joe Biden state at the Danville, Kentucky, debate just last week that intelligence agencies informed the administration that the attack was the result of protests that were under way?"

This is what I don't get about the Libya complaint by the GOP.

Why couldn't it, hypothetically, be a terrorist attack AND the result of the video-tape and protests?

Since when can terrorism only be done in a specific set of ways?

So 61.1% was Obama's floor this election season, barring some kind of legit October surprise.

Up to 65.7% without even factoring in the second debate

Bad news for Mamba's bet.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

Bad news for Obama.

Nad bews for Omaba.

 

[jamesinclair]

And heres a longer piece on the binders.

First, his answer to a question about the grave subject of wage inequality flaunts his gender bias: In his anecdote, Romney ostentatiously refuses to consider qualified applicants just because they’re men.

Second, Romney in this instance was hiring for positions largely about optics: He wanted women in his cabinet so he could say he had women in his cabinet. He recruited women to be women—not cabinet members.

Third, the binders response raises the specter of a still more hideous idea. Before answering the question, Romney had been reminded that women earn about 72 percent what their male counterparts do—and his response was to say, “Exactly! That’s why, given half a chance, I hire women!” Bottom line, Romney recruits women because they look good and they come cheap.

...

Lastly, Romney’s remark exposed something on flagrant display all night. It’s that he’s a boss—and only a boss. He sees everything from the throne of a massive realm: Massachusetts, Bain Capital, and the many businesses he’s “had the privilege of staffing,” or however he puts it.

...
“What plans do you have to put back and keep jobs here” in the U.S.—Romney said half-a-million manufacturing jobs had been lost in the last four years. “One of the reasons … is that people think it's more attractive, in some cases, to go offshore than to stay here. We have made it less attractive for enterprises to stay here than to go offshore from time to time.”

People think it’s more attractive to go offshore? I don’t know about you, but I’ve never met a single person—no Joe Neighbor or Sally Gastroenterologist—who says, “I’m going offshore, where it’s more attractive.”

Who goes “offshore,” then? Enterprises do. Corporations. The same entities that, in his heart, Romney still believes are people. When Romney speaks of turning every American into a small-business king, it’s his way of rhetorically transforming American citizens, who baffle him, into American businesses, which he understands.

More at

http://news.yahoo.com/romney-and-the-“binder”-blunder-45646812684.html

 

[Black Mamba]

The blockbuster hit film "2016: Obama's America," which grossed more than $33 million at the box office has reached the top of the DVD charts on the day of its release, becoming the top selling movie at Amazon.com. The film is also the top-selling documentary of the year at the box office, the #2 political documentary of all time and the #4 documentary of all time.

Read more here: http://www.sacbee.com/2012/10/16/4916468/2016-obamas-america-becomes-1.html#storylink=cpy

 

[ryutaro's mama]

^ Sexiest 5pur5 fan ever.

Soledad O'Brien and Alex Wagner are the hottest chicks on news television today.

Both or either I would take it.

Soledad's voice...mhm...

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

It's too bad only the binders thing is getting play after the debate. There were like 7 great moments at least.

 

[bananas]

30% still supported Bush at the end of his term. That's a good chunk of people that are dumb. Just because it's successful doesn't mean anything.

 

[bananas]

^ Sexiest 5pur5 fan ever.

Soledad O'Brien and Alex Wagner are the hottest chicks on news television today.

Both or either I would take it.

Soledad's voice...mhm...

But how on earth would you store them?!

 

[ryutaro's mama]

But how on earth would you store them?!

Not sure I understand.

 

[bananas]

Not sure I understand.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

Still not following.

 

[Officerrob]

30% still supported Bush at the end of his term. That's a good chunk of people that are dumb. Just because it's successful doesn't mean anything.

Almost 80% of Republicans supported Bush at the end of his term

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Still not following.

Maybe in a binder?

 

[speculawyer]

http://i.minus.com/iQ6y0vndlEVyt.gif

With the title "2016: Obama's America", I presume it must make some predictions in it? I certainly hope so, it will be great to have something to laugh at a few years down the road.

However, I suspect Distort D'Newsa might know better than to be so foolish and trap himself like that.

 

[bananas]

Almost 80% of Republicans supported Bush at the end of his term

80% of the time it fails all of the time.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

Maybe in a binder?

...

...

...really...

...ok, that deserves a...

 

[Black Mamba]

I wonder what Bush's favorability is among Republicans today now that the things he put in place got Bin Laden killed.

90%?

 

[bananas]

I wonder what Bush's favorability is among Republicans today now that the things he put in place got Bin Laden killed.

90%?

0%. Everybody knows Romney took out Bin Laden.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

0%. Everybody knows Romney took out Bin Laden.

Naw, it was some guy named, "Not Sure".

 

[ClassyPenguin]

It was Jack Bauer.

 

[AniHawk]

Almost 80% of Republicans supported Bush at the end of his term

well he did a bang-up job.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

well he did a bang-up job.

Mission Accomplished?

 

[sharbhund]

0%. Everybody knows Romney took out Bin Laden.

Everything good that's happened in the last 32 years in this country is because of Reagan. Everything bad was caused by Jimmy Carter.

 

[AniHawk]

Everything good that's happened in the last 32 years in this country is because of Reagan. Everything bad was caused by Jimmy Carter.

jimmy carter and obama!

and a little bit of clinton, but he wasn't that bad in retrospect.

it was sure interesting looking back at the critic when the reagan years were somewhat recent:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gAqE_GxsqMo
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rshem5ejOh8

 

[ryutaro's mama]

jimmy carter and obama!

and a little bit of clinton, but he wasn't that bad in retrospect.

it was sure interesting looking back at the critic when the reagan years were somewhat recent:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gAqE_GxsqMo
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rshem5ejOh8

Clinton's policies caused 9/11, duh!

 

[Diablos]

Not sure what PPP is saying about NH but uhh the rest of it sounds promising (I think).

Also disappointed that it seems final that Obama will not be able to erase much of Mitt's gains post-debate 1.

I guess what I ask myself now is if Obama would still have (almost) all of his-post DNC margins if he turned in a better first debate? I dunno. I think we were anticipating a +2 Mitt bounce but we got +4 instead because Obama really underperformed . If the second debate can chip away at least 1% of that I think it's a good sign.

How can you say for sure? No doubt, people just seeing Romney on stage against the Pres makes an impression.

 

[Clevinger]

I knew your posts rubbed me the wrong way. Hello, Kosmo. Bye, Kosmo.

(he's referring to Dreamcaster being Kosmo's alt account)

Someone just pointed this post out to me, and it just makes the debate all the sweeter. lol