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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.
- Thread starter Amir0x
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Yeah, that's pretty significant imo.
afaik no other pollsters are showing it. Perhaps by the weekend that will change.
yeah, obama was so lucky to be born half-white, half-black. those guys have all the luck. and all that about his dad leaving him with his single mother? so spoiled.
Black Mamba
Member
Uh, Reuters and TIPPS have shown 6+ swings in the last week.
Reuters was I believe +4 Romney maybe +3 and now is +3 Obama.
TIPPS was +5 Romney and now +1.5 Obama.
RAND went from +2 Obama to + 4 (yesterday) and now +6.
Ras went from I think +3 Romney to +1 Romney. And if Ras's problem is cell phones not being used, it will miss the trend as well.
Gallup is the only one to go the other way.
To criticize RAND is silly since the other 3 trackers have moved for Obama with 2 of them moving even more than RAND.
Reuters was I believe +4 Romney maybe +3 and now is +3 Obama.
TIPPS was +5 Romney and now +1.5 Obama.
RAND went from +2 Obama to + 4 (yesterday) and now +6.
Ras went from I think +3 Romney to +1 Romney. And if Ras's problem is cell phones not being used, it will miss the trend as well.
Gallup is the only one to go the other way.
To criticize RAND is silly since the other 3 trackers have moved for Obama with 2 of them moving even more than RAND.
it's hard for me to trust pollsters in general because i know how this shit works, but it just seems weird that it'd always be generally pretty accurate. the math of it kinda blows my mind.
i trust gallup knows what they're doing. fallacy of authority or whatever, but they've been doing this a fucking long time, so it's weird whenever they're the outlier. rand seems like it's been the outlier going the other direction- i don't believe obama's lead is a +6 right now.
but i guess it is pretty in line with what the movement has generally been, which is a shift back to the president. i think ras not showing a lead isn't quite as important as the improvement overall, although they tend to be closer to the truth in october than anytime before that.
i trust gallup knows what they're doing. fallacy of authority or whatever, but they've been doing this a fucking long time, so it's weird whenever they're the outlier. rand seems like it's been the outlier going the other direction- i don't believe obama's lead is a +6 right now.
but i guess it is pretty in line with what the movement has generally been, which is a shift back to the president. i think ras not showing a lead isn't quite as important as the improvement overall, although they tend to be closer to the truth in october than anytime before that.
Black Mamba
Member
I'd actually argue that because Gallup has been doing something for so long that they're more likely to be worse at it.
Slower to change with the changing dynamics. Happens all the time in the business world (blockbuster, borders, etc). And technology has really changed polling.
RAND is supposed to show a more stable race because it polls the same people. But the trends should play out similarly regardless. And it has. Reuters, TIPPS, and Ras has had similar trends with RAND in the middle (it was a 2 point shit until today).
The non-trackers also show a similar result. If we look at things like Pew and other polls from a week ago to the polls today despite being different firms we're now seeing Obama +1 or +3 which does also signal the same 3-6 point shift back.
To me, the only polling firm completely inconsistent with the rest is Gallup right now. And we've seen their crosstabs by region to make us worry about what is going on. Hell, does anyone believe Obama is losing the entire South by 22 (including Florida)? I sure as hell don't.
Like I said, I don't know why this is happening with Gallup right now but it is. So either they are on to something and everyone else is wrong or it might be time for a shake-up in their firm.
edit: And don't think for a second Gallup isn't aware. They're probably looking at the other polls and trying to figure out why theirs is so different.
Slower to change with the changing dynamics. Happens all the time in the business world (blockbuster, borders, etc). And technology has really changed polling.
RAND is supposed to show a more stable race because it polls the same people. But the trends should play out similarly regardless. And it has. Reuters, TIPPS, and Ras has had similar trends with RAND in the middle (it was a 2 point shit until today).
The non-trackers also show a similar result. If we look at things like Pew and other polls from a week ago to the polls today despite being different firms we're now seeing Obama +1 or +3 which does also signal the same 3-6 point shift back.
To me, the only polling firm completely inconsistent with the rest is Gallup right now. And we've seen their crosstabs by region to make us worry about what is going on. Hell, does anyone believe Obama is losing the entire South by 22 (including Florida)? I sure as hell don't.
Like I said, I don't know why this is happening with Gallup right now but it is. So either they are on to something and everyone else is wrong or it might be time for a shake-up in their firm.
edit: And don't think for a second Gallup isn't aware. They're probably looking at the other polls and trying to figure out why theirs is so different.
Some stuff for you guys to read up on if you're interested in accuracy and what not
2008 Electoral Map - Election Results and Report Cards for Polling Firms
Intrade was one vote shy of predicting Obama's exact total in 2008 (although had two states wrong and didn't predict Nebraska splitting its vote) and I believe they got every state correct in 2004.
A small sampling of polling firms
If you give Obama every state he's at least a 66% favorite to win (Ohio, Wisconsin, and Nevada), he gets 271.
EDIT: Just view the grades for the polls on the link; I can't get it formatted correctly.
2008 Electoral Map - Election Results and Report Cards for Polling Firms
Intrade was one vote shy of predicting Obama's exact total in 2008 (although had two states wrong and didn't predict Nebraska splitting its vote) and I believe they got every state correct in 2004.
A small sampling of polling firms
If you give Obama every state he's at least a 66% favorite to win (Ohio, Wisconsin, and Nevada), he gets 271.
EDIT: Just view the grades for the polls on the link; I can't get it formatted correctly.
Again, this site is using wrong (dated/premature) data for grading. Obama won 52.9% - 45.7%, not "52.6% - 46.1%" . Also grading by consistency isn't reasonable when you have pollsters such as Rasmussen who weigh by party id, which reduces volatility but can also cause them to miss genuine shifts. Grading should be done over multiple elections as grading for accuracy based on a single poll with a margin of error that is larger than the margin between the of the worst and best poll is laughable. Better to be lucky than good, I suppose
Took a look at the prediction I made way back on Aug 1st, which seems a lifetime ago. Wasn't a particular bold prediction at the time; it was the 'state of the race' at that point...
...and it's very close to the current state of the race according to Silver (bar Virginia being light red on 538).
So after everything that's happened - including the first debate, the conventions, the 47% remarks, Libya, even the Ryan pick - we're pretty much back where we started. Which isn't necessarily bad news.
Of course, an Obama win was always going to look pretty much like this (perhaps adding Florida, with an outside shot at North Carolina. Or removing Viriginia and Colorado, if things go slightly in the other direction).
...and it's very close to the current state of the race according to Silver (bar Virginia being light red on 538).
So after everything that's happened - including the first debate, the conventions, the 47% remarks, Libya, even the Ryan pick - we're pretty much back where we started. Which isn't necessarily bad news.
Of course, an Obama win was always going to look pretty much like this (perhaps adding Florida, with an outside shot at North Carolina. Or removing Viriginia and Colorado, if things go slightly in the other direction).
The Librarian
Banned
They were wrong after the first debate about things settling down to where things were before the first debate.
Black Republican
Member
guess my prediction of him holding his seat no longer holds.
cartoon_soldier
Member
As long as their polls are right...well the state ones at least.
I think Scott Brown may have had a decent shot keeping the seat if 2012 were a mid-term election, not a presidential one. In a heavily democratic state where Obama will likely win it by 20-30 points, and it being an extremely high profile senate seat, Brown always had an uphill battle imo. The fact that he came off so badly after the debates was just extra.
Let me guess. Romney's doing nothing but debate prep besides that dinner.
cartoon_soldier
Member
I feel like they are going to have Obama/Biden concentrate on NV, IA, OH, NH, VA, WI, CO
But in terms of GOTV, latest reports said that they had greatly reduced the Republican advantage in absentee ballots from 2008.
Officerrob
Banned
Based on where they have been campaigning, they must have some not so great internal Florida polls.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Here is the article I read yesterday, the 4 states for Obama Campaign:
http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/what-s-next-in-the-obama-romney-duel-20121017
I think they have given up on NC for the most part. I am sure they will continue with their ground game though, but doubt we will see any Obama visits. I see them not caring too much about FL, it is not essential to their math.
I wouldn't think they would have given up on VA though.
It is mind boggling that Romney's campaign has pretty much relied on Ryan to get FL...the one guy who wanted to private SS and convert Medicare into vouchers. wtf Seniors indeed.
Also, Biden should campaign more!
http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/what-s-next-in-the-obama-romney-duel-20121017
I think they have given up on NC for the most part. I am sure they will continue with their ground game though, but doubt we will see any Obama visits. I see them not caring too much about FL, it is not essential to their math.
I wouldn't think they would have given up on VA though.
It is mind boggling that Romney's campaign has pretty much relied on Ryan to get FL...the one guy who wanted to private SS and convert Medicare into vouchers. wtf Seniors indeed.
Also, Biden should campaign more!
That's a complete act because he's in a very blue state. See also: Romney when he was in Massachusetts.
I just feel like Obama missed a huge opportunity in my home state, Obama was winning over the older voters just a few weeks ago. All they have to do is send Bill Clinton and Charlie Christ for the old people, and send Michelle Obama and Eva Longoria for the Women/Black/Latin vote. Come October 27 I want to see surrogates marching people toward early voting booths like they did in Ohio.
Also, Obama needs to spend the next 3 days preparing for the debate instead of campaigning.
Also, Obama needs to spend the next 3 days preparing for the debate instead of campaigning.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
LOL at that Bill Clinton schedule. A high school and a college? I see what he did there.
iamshadowlark
Banned
Why? He has alot of very winnable states that Mitt is currently up in. I don't think he will take another debate off again.
Besides, Mitt managed to fuck up on one of the easiest bunnies he was thrown in reagrds to FP. He's pretty clueless and his team is too. This isn't like the economy.
Mmmm. Binders full of (young) women.
Over confidence is the enemy.
cartoon_soldier
Member
This. After 2nd debate expectations game is against Obama again.
iamshadowlark
Banned
Who said anything about over confidence?
Saying that he doesn't need to campaign with about three weeks to go is over confidence.
I'm not saying not to stop campaigning completely, just for the next 3 days till the debate starts.
What? Who's that from?
SpeedySwaf
Member
I think I read somewhere that the last claims report wasn't able to get CA in time, hence the significant drop. So this may be taking CA into account again.
Souldriver
Member
... Source, man. Source.
Or he could try to walk and chew gum at the same time, prepping for the debates between campaign stops and cramming in the evenings.
This should be a lot of 20 hour days for Obama followed by a 24 hour break before the debate where he can do some last minute cramming and recharge the batteries.
46k jobless claims would be awesome.
Mass liked him better when he was just a simple truck driving underwear model.
Particle Physicist
between a quark and a baryon
Isn't this shit illegal?
He is a complete fool.
eBay Huckster
Member
this bird that's attention whoring across this room from me kind of reminds me of some of these posts
e: and the cat that's trolling it reminds me of PD
e: and the cat that's trolling it reminds me of PD
Vestal
Junior Member
CEOs using that kind of leverage to get people to vote x way? yes that is illegal.
What Romney said on that recording is questionable, and borderline immoral but not illegal.
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