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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.
- Thread starter Amir0x
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Is this true? I didn't realize people actually had alt accounts.
Yuuup.
Speak for yourself man. It can stay >65% from now until election night, thank you.
Obama's not going to lose. What difference does it make if it goes down to 59%? Some of us have to make more money
I'd actually be interested in watching it. Of course I'd be MUCH more interested if the following candidates were also involved: Dennis Kucinich, Ron Paul, and Michelle Bachmann/Rick Santorum.
I keep going back and forth, it's either 60/40 or 50/50. I don't know what to tell myself right now. But it seems like Obama is only getting a bit of a stranglehold on Mitt's first debate surge.
That said it can take several days (at least) for an Obama bump to be fully felt, just like it took a while for Mitt's.
I cannot think of a single election in my life that has ever been so important. At least in 2008, if McCain won, there would likely have been tons of Dems in the House and Senate to keep him from enacting the GOP wet dream of killing every social safety net, lowering taxes to crazy rates, starting wars just because, etc.
Truly, a Romney win would be terrifying.
Has there been any reassuring news out of Virginia lately? I think it's absolutely necessary that Obama takes it as an insurance policy against something unexpected and catastrophic (i.e. losing WI, or IA).
cartoon_soldier
Member
I want it back at 75%!
If Obama takes Colorado and Nevada, that can replace Wisconsin and Iowa.
I would be shocked if the Midwest did that though.
Also there is no way he loses Wisconsin and doesn't lose Ohio. He's not losing Wisconsin.
I want it at 99.999%.
Well the MU WI poll is pretty bad. Granted it's semi-stale, and from the highest point of the Mitt surge, but only +1 down from, what, +10-11 in WI at this stage is not something you wanna see. Ever. And they have a good track record of being accurate.
Colorado is looking like it might slip away. Starting to wonder if Team Obama should double down in VA instead of CO?
Did you miss PPP saying that Obama is performing better in Colorado than in Iowa and New Hampshire?
ryutaro's mama
Member
Can't that be interpreted two ways though? Are we assuming IA is still pretty much the same? What if it's worse, slipping into red territory, and CO has a small O bounce? Etc. Would like to see the poll.
Oh for fuck's sake.
How no one is tying Romney's surge to the skyrocketing gas prices is just beyond me. There is no single thing economic indicator that moves the needle on the electorate like gas prices.
I'm not saying that the Denver debate wasn't huge, it was...but I would seriously theorize that the skyrocketing gas prices have cost Obama at least 2 to 3 points nationally and it's what is causing Romney to maintain his surge. If the price at the pump was 50 cents lower right now, the post 1st debate bump would have dramatically faded.
I'm not saying that the Denver debate wasn't huge, it was...but I would seriously theorize that the skyrocketing gas prices have cost Obama at least 2 to 3 points nationally and it's what is causing Romney to maintain his surge. If the price at the pump was 50 cents lower right now, the post 1st debate bump would have dramatically faded.
There was way more at stake in 2004. Monumentally more. You had an emboldened Neocon president and congress who could do almost anything they wanted because of 9/11.
If Obama wins this election he is our Reagan. If he loses, the Republicans will turn him into another Carter and run against his positions for decades to come, an incalculable setback to liberal causes.
It'll also be the nation's first post-teaparty Republican President. If you thought Bush was bad...
Depending on what Mitt would do if he got elected, it could be on par with 2004.
Repealing Obamacare, ending social security/medicare as we know it, who even knows with the middle east, a completely dishonest tax policy that makes the Bush tax cuts look liberal, etc.
Yeah, this too.
I honestly can't tell if you're trolling or not. If you think it's 60/40 right now or 50/50, you must be getting your news from Fox. Not even Intrade, which has a heavy Conservative bias, thinks the odds are that low. I get how terrible America would be if Romney somehow won. However, the odds of that are insane. Romney absolutely demolished Obama in the first debate (in the eyes of everyone) and he STILL pretty much only pulled the race to "even."
Romney has basically one or two chances to win and his most likely path (through Ohio) is 68.9% likely to go to Obama (via 538). Nevada is at 67.3% going to Obama. Iowa is 62.7% going to Obama. Give Obama Ohio (which he's going to win) plus either of those two states and he wins (assuming he gets Wisconsin which is 74.5% Obama). His margin of error is huge. Romney's isn't. I mean, hell let's be honest. Obama can actually lose Ohio and still win with NV, CO, IA, IL, WI, NH. Sounds absurd since he needs to win six "battleground" states, but that's actually much more likely than Romney flipping Ohio plus another state.
Obama just needs to hold on, Romney needs to somehow "fire up his base" even more than it's already fired up plus get independents to switch to him. That's difficult because of several reasons- 1) Economy is getting better, 2) Obama's approval rating is pretty high while Romney's is fairly low, 3) independents have already been flooded with ads from both parties, 4) Obama automatically appeals to young people, women, racial minorities, gay people, poor people, etc. I'm not saying Romney can't win the election, but to actually be worried about it? I only worry about things likely to happen and I never bet on anything unless it's a sure thing. I have over $1000 riding on an Obama win. He won't let me down.
ryutaro's mama
Member
Go to sleep, y'all.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Obama can still lose Iowa but it'll be hard: he has quite a large early voter lead there. I'm not worried about it
Colorado was initially seen as a firewall state for Obama, now who knows what's going on there. PPP's poll should be interesting
Today is the 18th, we have a few days until the next debate. It seems like Romney will spend most of that time talking about Libya...why. Obama basically ended that farce last night and I don't see how it'll be revived. Without that he will have nothing for Monday's debate, outside of complaining about Syria and Iran policies he also supports.
Romney needs something big to happen in order to change this comeback narrative. Talking about Libya only reminds voters that he got knocked out on the issue
Colorado was initially seen as a firewall state for Obama, now who knows what's going on there. PPP's poll should be interesting
Today is the 18th, we have a few days until the next debate. It seems like Romney will spend most of that time talking about Libya...why. Obama basically ended that farce last night and I don't see how it'll be revived. Without that he will have nothing for Monday's debate, outside of complaining about Syria and Iran policies he also supports.
Romney needs something big to happen in order to change this comeback narrative. Talking about Libya only reminds voters that he got knocked out on the issue
Read this before you guys go to sleep
The UNSKEWED Projection of the 2012 Presidential Race
EDIT: How hilarious would it be if the person who owned this website had like 10,000 shares for Obama on Intrade? That'd be brilliant if so.
The UNSKEWED Projection of the 2012 Presidential Race
EDIT: How hilarious would it be if the person who owned this website had like 10,000 shares for Obama on Intrade? That'd be brilliant if so.
speculawyer
Member
The gas prices are mainly rising on the west coast and the west coast is on lock-down.
I don't know, if you take the long view, re-electing Bush in 2004 had the benefit of handing power over to Democrats soon after. I really doubt Democrats would have such opportunities in 2008 and 2012 if Kerry had won. Re-electing Bush in 2004 had the benefit of being correctable in 4 years, although I grant you that his economic collapse in 2008 probably could have been avoided if Kerry had won.
Meanwhile in 2012 deciding who gets credit for the current recovery is of paramount long-term importance. If Romney walks in next January with positive jobs numbers for years to come, Republicans will win re-election, rack up Supreme Court Justices, and discredit Democratic policies in the eyes of the public while largely erasing from public memory Bush's economic record. Obama will be gleefully declared a failure by Republicans for the next 30 years, if their unwillingness to let go of Jimmy Carter is any indication.
If Democrats lose in 2012 it could be a long-ass time before they find themselves in a position of strength again. Losing in 2004 had the benefit of giving them strength the immediate next cycle.
ppp said:
considering they're polling co, nh, and ia, the states will probably remain close. kinda hard to tell since it's been a while since they polled any of those states.
their post-debate poll responded well to obama in the debate, so i think it's safe to say co is looking nice, while nh and ia are maybe 2-3 points apart. what will be interesting about iowa is if they ask how many have voted already and what the breakdowns of that will be. over 200k people voted in iowa as of last week, and in 2008, 1.2m iowanitinians voted for obama or mccain. iowa's probably like ohio where things are looking iffy for romney already.
i know new hampshire is full of rich white people but it's weird to think of it going for romney. my concerns about wisconsin and new hampshire are offset by my optimism for virginia, though.
CaptainSchwann
Member
Read this before you guys go to sleep
The UNSKEWED Projection of the 2012 Presidential Race
EDIT: How hilarious would it be if the person who owned this website had like 10,000 shares for Obama on Intrade? That'd be brilliant if so.
Not even in another universe will Romney somehow win in Pennsylvania.
Black Mamba
Member
Read this before you guys go to sleep
The UNSKEWED Projection of the 2012 Presidential Race
EDIT: How hilarious would it be if the person who owned this website had like 10,000 shares for Obama on Intrade? That'd be brilliant if so.
I will eat all 5 of my laker championship hats if this is the actual map. Michigan, Penn, NM, Iowa, Wis, and Ohio all going Romney.
Anyway, I watched Silver on Daily Show. Had no idea he played poker online and got into politics by trying to get those who passed the bill banning deposits out of Congress. Hilarious. I always knew he played but didn't know about it driving him into politics.
Also, he got a jab into Dick Morris which was great on the online extended interview.
I should probably get his book. Anyone read it, yet?
ClassyPenguin
Banned
everyone bitches about gas prices but I never see people actually modifying their behavior (other than buying a Prius). .the next car I purchase. Will be one of the least economical cars, the Mazda rx8, but I don't intend it to be my daily driver.
I still with LA had a decent transit system.
Rocket Scientist
Member
I can't believe people still mention the gas price levels at the start of Obama's presidency. The fact that it was part of the debate is disgusting. Unless romney can bring gas prices to 1.80 he needs to fuck off with his bullshit.
speculawyer
Member
WTF?Read this before you guys go to sleep
The UNSKEWED Projection of the 2012 Presidential Race
EDIT: How hilarious would it be if the person who owned this website had like 10,000 shares for Obama on Intrade? That'd be brilliant if so.
Objective polls: Obama with a 66% chance & 287 EVs.
PoliGAF: Well, Obama should be squeak by with just above 270 EVs.
Conservatives:
The QStarNews projection of the 2012 presidential race sees Mitt Romney being elected the next president of the United States with 52.22 percent of the popular vote and 342 electoral votes to President Obama's 47.31 percent and 196 electoral votes.
That sister site has some great news stories:
Republicans likely to gain historic record majority...
Mitt Romney leading in all 11 key swing states in...
Mitt Romney leads in less skewed Monmouth University...
Skewed polls: The left says I wear a tinfoil hat
Mitt Romney vs. Barack Obama: Fox News poll shows...
Mitt Romney vs. Barack Obama: Tied in Washington...
Republican Senate majority likely on election day
Their map:
Dude . . . the Scholastics kids map is better than yours!
eBay Huckster
Member
eBay Huckster: 347-191. Believe.
What's making you optimistic for VA?
CaptainSchwann
Member
The math will add up.
WTF?
Objective polls: Obama with a 66% chance & 287 EVs.
PoliGAF: Well, Obama should be squeak by with just above 270 EVs.
Conservatives:
The QStarNews projection of the 2012 presidential race sees Mitt Romney being elected the next president of the United States with 52.22 percent of the popular vote and 342 electoral votes to President Obama's 47.31 percent and 196 electoral votes.
That sister site has some great news stories:
Republicans likely to gain historic record majority...
Mitt Romney leading in all 11 key swing states in...
Mitt Romney leads in less skewed Monmouth University...
Skewed polls: The left says I wear a tinfoil hat
Mitt Romney vs. Barack Obama: Fox News poll shows...
Mitt Romney vs. Barack Obama: Tied in Washington...
Republican Senate majority likely on election day
Their map:
Dude . . . the Scholastics kids map is better than yours!
I just love seeing all of this! They're going to be scratching their heads on Election Night, tearing each other apart (kinda like we do here at times - but much, much worse), wondering what the hell happened.
Funny thing, though: in the recent ABC/Washington Post poll, they asked voters who they thought would win the election. Despite the polls tightening after Debate #1, voters still predicted Obama over Romney by a similar margin to their pre-debate numbers, 53-33.
(and as of today, I'm still sticking with 303EVs for Obama)
The Chosen One
Member
Holy sh!t there were over 30 pages of posts in less than 24 hours even after the debate... no way I'm reading all of that.
Can someone summerize the days events in PoliGAF that caused the explosion of posts? I can't imagine you guys going into panic mode after Obama's strong performance last night. And the polls won't take into last night's performance for at least 4-5 days from now.
Can someone summerize the days events in PoliGAF that caused the explosion of posts? I can't imagine you guys going into panic mode after Obama's strong performance last night. And the polls won't take into last night's performance for at least 4-5 days from now.
It wasn't panic (except Diablos), just euphoria.
it's currently in tossup mode on 538, and i think nationally, obama is going to improve and put it into lean blue.
Officerrob
Banned
That October Surprise website was good for a couple pages of posts
Black Mamba
Member
RAND UPDATE:
Obama: 50.03
Romney: 44.34
Obama +5.7. About a +1.8 in one day. Huge jump. First post debate numbers are signaling a 51-43 at least spread. Tick up in Obama support enthusiasm. Approaching highest levels.
The current spread is basically equal to his biggest lead since the peak of the convention bounce.
Well, this completely negates Gallup at +6 Romney. Let's see if Gallup moves back a bit for Obama.
those are some interesting rounding skills.
Obama: 50.03
Romney: 44.34
Obama +5.7. About a +1.8 in one day. Huge jump. First post debate numbers are signaling a 51-43 at least spread. Tick up in Obama support enthusiasm. Approaching highest levels.
The current spread is basically equal to his biggest lead since the peak of the convention bounce.
Well, this completely negates Gallup at +6 Romney. Let's see if Gallup moves back a bit for Obama.
those are some interesting rounding skills.
cartoon_soldier
Member
I think most news/media are not really following RAND as a tracker because of their unusual methodology, only Nate has them added to his forecast.
It would be good to see Gallup, Ras, etc move more towards Obama. Only because it will feed a media narrative.
It would be good to see Gallup, Ras, etc move more towards Obama. Only because it will feed a media narrative.
Yup.. I couldn't find the exact numbers, but only saw that he was "above 50%." Forgot that they did the whole decimal thing.RAND UPDATE:
Obama: 50.03
Romney: 44.34
Obama +5.7. About a +1.8 in one day. Huge jump. First post debate numbers are signaling a 51-43 at least spread. Tick up in Obama support enthusiasm. Approaching highest levels.
The current spread is basically equal to his biggest lead since the peak of the convention bounce.
Well, this completely negates Gallup at +6 Romney. Let's see if Gallup moves back a bit for Obama.
those are some interesting rounding skills.
Black Mamba
Member
The internet has the potential to peak on November 6th/7th 2012.
Just sayin'.
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