There's really no use in spending time there at this point. Obama barely won there last time around and this race as a whole is much closer.
PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.
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There's really no use in spending time there at this point. Obama barely won there last time around and this race as a whole is much closer.
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
On his end, it is no different than that Rock the Vote nonsense that some GAFfers went to that told them who to vote for. Both instances are egregious to me.
RustyNails
Member
NC for some reason has unenthused blacks and hispanics..I think Obama has the least amount of support from them from any swing state.
Also, how can OH secretary of state continue with his purging after a direct court order? Can't he be thrown in prison for violation?
Also, how can OH secretary of state continue with his purging after a direct court order? Can't he be thrown in prison for violation?
Father_Brain
Banned
Yeah, this is where I'm at regarding Gallup's seeming outlier status as well. Hopefully, that's not just confirmation bias speaking.
Bill LuMay, WPTF talk radio: What is it like for you to hear the President of the United States call your dad a liar?
Tagg Romney: Well, you want to jump out of your seat and rush down to the debate stage and take a swing at him.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/...debate-made-him-want-to-take-a-swing-at-Obama
I needed a refill.
misdirection for whom, tho? anyone with an internet connection, google, and a functioning lobe between the ears could easily discern whether or not this "strategy" by the romney campaign is real. i mean, just look at ad buys and campaign appearances, for one. of course, they might be attempting to fool the media and start a bandwagon effect, but even that tactic would be incredibly risky (read: dumb).
No one's jobs are threatened at a Rock the Vote event.
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
It's not outrage, it's ridicule. I don't know anybody who's upset by it, but a lot who think it's hilarious.
Here's a guy who, when asked what he would do about women's pay, answers that he's so pro-women that he had "binders of women" brought to him.
He then elaborated that he hired women who couldn't work late becuase they had to go home and make dinner.
The ridicule is for how incredibly tin-eared he is to think that's a good answer to a completely different question. And it's funny to boot. It's like a caricature of a 1960's attitude toward women.
Bel Marduk
Banned
Why does giving up on FL make sense? The polls have him a bit behind here (and the last two had Romney up by one point.) but Florida has 29 electoral votes. If he wins there, he wouldn't need any other swing state, including Iowa or New Hampshire. It would be VERY foolish to write off FL.
thats a big sensationalist headline. That would be illegal. What he said was scummy, not illegal
eBay Huckster
Member
because he's already up by near-insurmountable margins in the other swing states, particularly ohio
Yeah the whole thing I don't find that funny it just reminds me of his;
comment, in that he is reeel out of touch.
This one is easy. Unemployment rate is 9.7% in North Carolina as of August 2012 according to BLS.
RustyNails
Member
If I'm not mistaken Nevada is worse, but it's still pretty much in play, if not lean dem at the moment.
Because if Obama doubles down on efforts in Nevada, Ohio, New Hampshire, and Iowa to a point where Romney absolutely cannot win any of them, Romney has no realistic path to 270 EVs.
BrokenEchelon
Banned
PoliGaf, I'm sure I'm late as fuck with this news, but have you seen the thread in OT about this?
http://thinkprogress.org/election/2012/10/17/1037881/leaked-audio-romney-employers/?mobile=nc
http://thinkprogress.org/election/2012/10/17/1037881/leaked-audio-romney-employers/?mobile=nc
Bel Marduk
Banned
North Carolina is also extremely socially conservative, even with hits high black population. Obama's position on gay marriage and abortion most likely hurts him here more than in any other swing state. Homophobia and racism, IMO, explain more than anything why Obama's doing so poorly in the South (as per Gallup) compared to ever other region of the country.
Well, Obama barely squeaked out NC back in 2008 compared to the 12% vote margin he had in Nevada. Based on the current polls, he only has a 3-5% margin in Nevada right now so it was an amazing thing that NC was actually in play before the debate.
Right that's true but I'd like to think in the end people vote with their economic interests first but that's obviously not true considering how many people continue voting for the Republican party.
I'm guessing here
1)narrative, narrative, narrative
2)oversampling of dems
3)lots of undecideds
I agree, but it does remind/reinforce people about the 47% narrative
narrative, narrative
thecouncil
Banned
theres a lot to that quote and almost none of it means that people will be fired for voting for obama.
we're trying to go all FoxNews on that quote, really.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Linda using money to blanket airways with lies.
He means the numbers. A six point lead isn't narrow. Thought I guess it might be with a shitload of undecideds.
cartoon_soldier
Member
And we had a poll with only a 2 pt. lead yesterday. +6 is probably closer though
Going to post some quick thoughts about the debate after watching it last night:
Still disappointed by both, but it's getting better. They still both beat around the bush when it comes to answering a direct question, especially when it seems like an honest an almost candid answer will benefit them the most. I understand they have their agendas to push and want to get everything across, it was very hard to swallow all that in the first debate and I'm disappointed at the extent it's still going on.
That said, Obama was clearly frustrated at the finger pointing and blame. I don't think he purposely lead Romney on with the "... act of terror" bit. I'm upset that Romney, felt that he had to go for the "GOTCHA!" moment. I don't think these things are the time nor place for that. There are more important things for you to do and say while you're up there, stop trying to make yourself look like you're someone who's just waiting to jump on any misstep to go "SEE! SEE! HE LIES! NANNY NANNY BOO BOO!" No, you have an uphill battle and you need to let people see that while you're pandering to the far [wealthy backers] right at times with this dog and pony show, you can still be someone with a heart, a genuine want to help ALL people, and get things on track financially. (this is just my personal belief here)
As mentioned, Obama seemed frustrated. I think he had an easy time with the questions, but still missed a few places where he could have been more straightforward and answer directly. I felt it would have made more of an impact at times and it certainly would have spoken to me more. He showed himself a far better candidate than he did before. I do hope that he's sure to let his charisma through more and not get caught up in the finger pointing that Romney is dragging him through still a bit though. I will say that it seems like the time limit does not do him any favors, he still feels a bit rushed where he would do better if had time to let his thoughts flow a bit more. Maybe less talking points and more substance on specific ones?
Still disappointed by both, but it's getting better. They still both beat around the bush when it comes to answering a direct question, especially when it seems like an honest an almost candid answer will benefit them the most. I understand they have their agendas to push and want to get everything across, it was very hard to swallow all that in the first debate and I'm disappointed at the extent it's still going on.
That said, Obama was clearly frustrated at the finger pointing and blame. I don't think he purposely lead Romney on with the "... act of terror" bit. I'm upset that Romney, felt that he had to go for the "GOTCHA!" moment. I don't think these things are the time nor place for that. There are more important things for you to do and say while you're up there, stop trying to make yourself look like you're someone who's just waiting to jump on any misstep to go "SEE! SEE! HE LIES! NANNY NANNY BOO BOO!" No, you have an uphill battle and you need to let people see that while you're pandering to the far [wealthy backers] right at times with this dog and pony show, you can still be someone with a heart, a genuine want to help ALL people, and get things on track financially. (this is just my personal belief here)
As mentioned, Obama seemed frustrated. I think he had an easy time with the questions, but still missed a few places where he could have been more straightforward and answer directly. I felt it would have made more of an impact at times and it certainly would have spoken to me more. He showed himself a far better candidate than he did before. I do hope that he's sure to let his charisma through more and not get caught up in the finger pointing that Romney is dragging him through still a bit though. I will say that it seems like the time limit does not do him any favors, he still feels a bit rushed where he would do better if had time to let his thoughts flow a bit more. Maybe less talking points and more substance on specific ones?
cartoon_soldier
Member
NEVER GIVE UP!
Father_Brain
Banned
Those are anything but mutually exclusive, though thankfully, the overwhelming majority of black voters don't vote on cultural issues the way white social conservatives do.
Bel Marduk
Banned
There are two religious denominations that push this dogma about gay marriage and abortion more than any others and they are the Southern Baptists and Mormons. In fact, if you look at the twenty states with the highest concentrations of Southern Baptists, Sixteen of them are deep red states. NC and Florida are in the middle but trending toward Republicans and only two of them are blue states (MD and NM.) This data is old, but you can't deny the outsized influence of the Southern Baptist Convention on politics in the South.
While it would be great if everyone voted logically or even for their own economic interests, it doesn't always happen (particularly in the South,) that's why its a dream of mine for these churches to lose their tax exempt status because they are so blatantly trying to influence elections.
What kills me about this new Romney quote besides reinforcement of his negative characteristics is that he really thinks that by sheer virtue of his election, things will get better; markets will breath a sigh of relief and go up, business will hire again, oil will get drilled more etc, etc. To the extent that any of that would be true is frightening, but then I remember the markets are up, businesses are hiring and oil is being drilled..
Everything is getting better and will improve a lot over the next 4 years due to the policies put in place, and if he wins he'll take credit for it all. Which is a frightening prospect.
thecouncil
Banned
and Romney wants credit for it. he'd probably get it too. which is also a bit sad.
PhoenixDark
Banned
I don't believe NC was ever a lock for Obama due to the horrible economy there.
Seems like Obama has given up on Florida too, which again reflects that Ryan's budget is not as toxic as advertised. Now the focus is on CO or VA. I think Romney can win both unless the Hispanic vote is super high, which is a possibility according to Silver.
Still, I can't really complain about polls until we get a new wave of them
Seems like Obama has given up on Florida too, which again reflects that Ryan's budget is not as toxic as advertised. Now the focus is on CO or VA. I think Romney can win both unless the Hispanic vote is super high, which is a possibility according to Silver.
Still, I can't really complain about polls until we get a new wave of them
The Lamonster
Member
"best interest of your enterprise and therefore their job"
I know it's subtle so I won't blame you for missing it.
Umm they are very close in early voting, much better than in 2008.
Polls show its very close in FL.
Romney can win all four of the states you mentioned and still lose.
thecouncil
Banned
oh, i didnt miss it. i get that he's saying that his policies will help people keep their jobs and voting obama means theyll get laid off. what he's not saying is that people will be fired if theyre found to have voted for obama... which is what the headlines and misrepresentations of what he said are implying.
its a really stupid thing to say, but i went into that link thinking that he was telling bosses to threaten workers job directly if they voted for obama. thats not what it's about. he wants employers to threaten their employee's jobs indirectly. haha.
Not so much that it isn't toxic, but just listen to CSPAN call-ins in the morning and you will hear the same "Seniors" calling Obama a socialist by proxy of Obamacare. It never gets called out, and the guest always says "The caller raises an interesting point."
Post the responses etc.
CO just like NV and IA has a ridiculous amount of Hispanic voters. Polls underestimate them as Nate has pointed out so I expect CO to go to Obama as easy as NV and IA do
Choosing where to focus resources is always a tough game theory exercise, but in this case, I think it's important to remember that Obama has a ground game advantage in every state. If both parties stay out of North Carolina (or Virginia, or Florida) completely aside from what they've already done, Obama has a leg up -- might not be enough to win him the state, but he'll do better than nationally when you adjust for state fundamentals. Since they're all tight swing states, that means that Romney's debate win isn't sufficient for him to win them -- he must expend further resources to take complete control of them and defeat Obama's early ground investment. Compound interest, yo. So I think circling the wagons is smart -- OH/WI/IA are efficiently near each other, while Romney still has to spread resources across the southern swing states to guarantee winning them, which he still has to do.
I just want clarity on the national popular vote situation. I'm sick of these tracking polls, and it's mostly unknown whose ahead nationwide right now. A wave of national polls from Pew, NBC/Wall Street Journal, and others would help us make sense of the State polls too. For example if Obama was ahead by +2 nationally, would he really be ahead by only 1 in Wisconsin?
Bel Marduk
Banned
To put this into perspective, if Obama wins Florida, he could lose Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Ohio, New Hampshire, Virginia and North Carolina AND STILL win the election. He's down by one point in the last two FL polls. It would be ridiculous to give up on Florida. The campaign's budget is not that tight that they would need to forfeit it, either.
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