http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/election-2012/wp/2012/10/18/bruce-springsteen-endorses-obama/
i'm late tuning in, but live springsteen in ohio.
i'm late tuning in, but live springsteen in ohio.
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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.
- Thread starter Amir0x
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Ppps last poll was oct 7. Doubt the debate performance really factored in. 3 pt swing to Romney is consistent with what we've seen elsewhere IMO.
Sirpopopop
Member
Hmm... Gallup is now +7 Romney.
Yet, Obama has 50% approval rating & creeped up in the registered voters count.
Yet, Obama has 50% approval rating & creeped up in the registered voters count.
Arrowgigantic
Member
Kids can't vote.
The Librarian
Banned
lmao
True. I guess there is that little 5% part in the back of my brain quietly asking, "but.. what if they're right? I mean.. they're Gallup."
If they're right, I reeally have to hope that the South is throwing things off.
Red Blaster
Member
dat Southern hatred
lol wtf
RustyNails
Member
What the hell is wrong with Gallup?
The Librarian
Banned
Gallup is a joke.
cartoon_soldier
Member
wtf
What do I win?
Sirpopopop
Member
Yeah, they need to look at their methodology.
The numbers don't make sense when you extrapolate off of them.
The numbers don't make sense when you extrapolate off of them.
Good news for Obama.
CaptainSchwann
Member
Gallup does a 7-day running average right?
RustyNails
Member
I really dont understand...it's quite the only outlier right now. Their numbers are bonked. Probably southern voters more heavily weighted again.
http://bigstory.ap.org/article/ny-appeals-court-nixes-defense-marriage-act
DOMA ruled unconstitutional again.
DOMA ruled unconstitutional again.
electricpirate
Member
Other than VA, those polls really aren't great.
Though I did learn that Zogby is still in business!
Though I did learn that Zogby is still in business!
edible_candle
Member
Obama gains two points in approval, gains one in registered voters... drops one point to -7 in likely voters. Fascinating, and logical too.
so there's a huge fucking discrepancy between gallup's lv, practically everything else, and its own numbers for obama's approval ratings (where it looks like the debate is being viewed generally favorably).
romney is not going to be up 7 on election day nationally. that's absurd.
romney is not going to be up 7 on election day nationally. that's absurd.
Is this the first time Romney has led on the RCP electoral map?
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html
Probably, nothing else makes sense. I mean they are a pretty big outlier at this point.
Gollub pls.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Not concerned about Gallup anymore, outside of the inevitable voter fraud charges if Obama wins while down in their poll. They switched their methodology recently and it's clearly off.
I hate even exposing myself to charges of skewing but come the fuck on
I hate even exposing myself to charges of skewing but come the fuck on
I'm hoping for a great voter turnout by both sides.
My feeling is that things will gradually swing back to Obama over the next 3 weeks.
Listening to a discussion about the job situation.
One fellow was saying the daily/weekly tracking by the Labor Dept was showing job growth was accelerating and the new unemployment claims were dropping each day.
I think if the unemployment rate falls again the first of November, there will be a final swing to Obama. Still a close election. Exciting.
And if Romney is elected, so be it. Only 4 years (of course I said the same thing about George Bush) and then Hillary or a "new" Obama will take it back. I hate to see Romney get the benefit of the improving economy, but as the money gets better, then people will focus on the social issues. The Republicans lose on that issue.
My feeling is that things will gradually swing back to Obama over the next 3 weeks.
Listening to a discussion about the job situation.
One fellow was saying the daily/weekly tracking by the Labor Dept was showing job growth was accelerating and the new unemployment claims were dropping each day.
I think if the unemployment rate falls again the first of November, there will be a final swing to Obama. Still a close election. Exciting.
And if Romney is elected, so be it. Only 4 years (of course I said the same thing about George Bush) and then Hillary or a "new" Obama will take it back. I hate to see Romney get the benefit of the improving economy, but as the money gets better, then people will focus on the social issues. The Republicans lose on that issue.
People just really really like Mitt Romney.
I guess we'll find out which is closer to the truth in November. I guess don't get their LV model...
immediately after the first debate, it was +5 obama, so definitely movement towards romney, but i still think it'll go blue on election day.
They have OH and MI as straight toss ups when both should be lean Obama at the least.
Yea that is wrong.
PhoenixDark
Banned
It's also worth noting that Obama is ahead in every region polled by Gallup except the south, where he is down 15-20 points.
Quick reposts:
http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate/108342/romneys-gain-among-likely-voters-not-unusual
I ain't gonna stress.
@fivethirtyeight said:
tnr said:But while a persistent likely-registered voter gap isn't good for the president's chances, it's worth remembering that this is about the same difference that Gallup found at this point four years ago. As you can see, Gallup initially showed a 6 point gap between likely and registered voters, which shrunk to just a couple of points by Election Day.
The y-axis is the gap between likely and registered voters.
http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate/108342/romneys-gain-among-likely-voters-not-unusual
I ain't gonna stress.
Particle Physicist
between a quark and a baryon
they have PA as a toss up. lol
TacticalFox88
Banned
RustyNails
Member
This. But we already know Obama has a tough game to win in Florida and NC so Romney leading south is hardly news.
Yeah, as long as the internals keep him ahead where he needs (everywhere but the south), I'm not going to fret. Clearly something is off with their LV model and/or south weighting.
And hell; even if they are correct, Romney decisively winning the south but losing everywhere else wins him jack shit.
What is wrong with them?None of the states mention are toss ups right now.
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