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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.

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Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
pigeon said:
Okay, I couldn't win office in Massachusetts either. But at least I know WHO HE IS and at least VAGUELY why he's relevant.

That is...a very tight result in Virginia, when PPP had Obama up 4 after the first debate.
Click to expand...
Ppps last poll was oct 7. Doubt the debate performance really factored in. 3 pt swing to Romney is consistent with what we've seen elsewhere IMO.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Opiate said:
Or they're right. I'm sure Silver has a 5-10% chance allocated for that possibility.
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True. I guess there is that little 5% part in the back of my brain quietly asking, "but.. what if they're right? I mean.. they're Gallup."

If they're right, I reeally have to hope that the South is throwing things off.
 
H

Hitokage

Setec Astronomer
onoz_zpse1a6c532.gif
 
R

RustyNails

Member
I really dont understand...it's quite the only outlier right now. Their numbers are bonked. Probably southern voters more heavily weighted again.
 
A

AniHawk

Member
so there's a huge fucking discrepancy between gallup's lv, practically everything else, and its own numbers for obama's approval ratings (where it looks like the debate is being viewed generally favorably).

romney is not going to be up 7 on election day nationally. that's absurd.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Not concerned about Gallup anymore, outside of the inevitable voter fraud charges if Obama wins while down in their poll. They switched their methodology recently and it's clearly off.

I hate even exposing myself to charges of skewing but come the fuck on
 
V

verbum

Member
I'm hoping for a great voter turnout by both sides.
My feeling is that things will gradually swing back to Obama over the next 3 weeks.
Listening to a discussion about the job situation.
One fellow was saying the daily/weekly tracking by the Labor Dept was showing job growth was accelerating and the new unemployment claims were dropping each day.
I think if the unemployment rate falls again the first of November, there will be a final swing to Obama. Still a close election. Exciting.
And if Romney is elected, so be it. Only 4 years (of course I said the same thing about George Bush) and then Hillary or a "new" Obama will take it back. I hate to see Romney get the benefit of the improving economy, but as the money gets better, then people will focus on the social issues. The Republicans lose on that issue.
 
T

thekad

Banned
AniHawk said:
so there's a huge fucking discrepancy between gallup's lv, practically everything else, and its own numbers for obama's approval ratings (where it looks like the debate is being viewed generally favorably).

romney is not going to be up 7 on election day nationally. that's absurd.
Click to expand...

People just really really like Mitt Romney.
 
T

teiresias

Member
If Gallup keeps this up (and they're not - horrendously - the only ones getting it right) then until they fix their model their vote polling is going to be considered as worthless as their jobless rate polling.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
AniHawk said:
so there's a huge fucking discrepancy between gallup's lv, practically everything else, and its own numbers for obama's approval ratings (where it looks like the debate is being viewed generally favorably).

romney is not going to be up 7 on election day nationally. that's absurd.
Click to expand...

I guess we'll find out which is closer to the truth in November. I guess don't get their LV model...
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Quick reposts:

@fivethirtyeight said:
In 2000, Gallup showed a 24 point swing to Gore over 5 weeks. Swings this year have actually been pretty tame.
Click to expand...

tnr said:
But while a persistent likely-registered voter gap isn't good for the president's chances, it's worth remembering that this is about the same difference that Gallup found at this point four years ago. As you can see, Gallup initially showed a 6 point gap between likely and registered voters, which shrunk to just a couple of points by Election Day.

The y-axis is the gap between likely and registered voters.
gallup%20rv%20lv%20gap%2008.gif
Click to expand...

http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate/108342/romneys-gain-among-likely-voters-not-unusual

I ain't gonna stress.
 
C

Cloudy

Banned
To put that Gallup LV poll in perspective. Obama never hit 52% vs. McCain in LV in a wave election. Not saying Obama's leading but there is no way he's down 7 points
 
R

RDreamer

Member
PhoenixDark said:
It's also worth noting that Obama is ahead in every region polled by Gallup except the south, where he is down 15-20 points.
Click to expand...

Yeah, as long as the internals keep him ahead where he needs (everywhere but the south), I'm not going to fret. Clearly something is off with their LV model and/or south weighting.

And hell; even if they are correct, Romney decisively winning the south but losing everywhere else wins him jack shit.
 
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