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[AniHawk]

While they are calling more cell users, they are also calling more white and elderly voters than before

oh, i guess that would do it.

 

[jbug617]

Gallup made it into the OT. Trying to tell people about Gallup 2 models and discrepancy in the LV because Obama leads every region but the South.

 

[Y2Kev]

This Gallup thing is so weird, they were one of the best pollsters in 2008.

But you were right: red states really hate Obama.

 

[Cheebo]

Will you stop acting like they matter now?

They do matter, they are one of the most highly respected polling outlets there is. It is why this extreme outlier is so baffling. Coming from someone like Gallup is really weird. No one would be talking about it if it was Rasmussen or something.

 

[syllogism]

I doubt the problem is their new model, people have questioned their decision not to weigh by demographics for quite a while

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/...ack-obama_n_1589937.html?utm_hp_ref=@pollster

 

[Drek]

They do matter, they are one of the most highly respected polling outlets there is. It is why this extreme outlier is so baffling. Coming from someone like Gallup is really weird. No one would be talking about it if it was Rasmussen or something.

Ras started life as a cappable poll as well. Bad modelling and falling behind the tech curve can drag anyone down.

 

[Tim-E]

They do matter, they are one of the most highly respected polling outlets there is. It is why this extreme outlier is so baffling. Coming from someone like Gallup is really weird. No one would be talking about it if it was Rasmussen or something.

They were one of the most inaccurate pollsters in 2008 and they've been an absolute mess lately; they are clearly an outlier compared to other daily trackers. In addition, daily trackers are 100% worthless thanks to the electoral college. Romney leading in national daily polls does not matter if he's behind in electoral math.

 

[pigeon]

Gallup made it into the OT. Trying to tell people about Gallup 2 models and discrepancy in the LV because Obama leads every region but the South.

Don't bother. Harness their anxiety for money and volunteer power like I did.

 

[thekad]

They do matter, they are one of the most highly respected polling outlets there is. It is why this extreme outlier is so baffling. Coming from someone like Gallup is really weird. No one would be talking about it if it was Rasmussen or something.

Gallup was one of the most inaccurate pollsters in 2008 and 2010.

Are you going to keep ignoring this? Seriously, are you just trolling?

 

[StopMakingSense]

New PPP daily tracker launched. Tied at 48 nationally. Mon - Wed.

 

[Loudninja]

PPP

Based on interviews completed between Monday and Wednesday Barack Obama and Mitt Romney are all tied up at 48%. This represents some improvement for Obama compared to PPP's last national survey, conducted last weekend for Daily Kos and SEIU, which found Romney up 50/46.

Obama is up 51/45 with women, 62/34 with Hispanics, 87/8 with African Americans, and 57/38 with young voters. Romney is ahead 50/45 with men, 46/41 with independents, 58/38 with whites, and 53/43 with seniors.

Voters narrowly disapprove of Obama's job performance, with 46% of voters giving him good marks to 50% unhappy with how he's doing. That's actually up a little bit from a 44/53 spread over the weekend though. Americans are split right down the middle in their assessments of Romney- 47% see him favorably and 47% unfavorably. That's down from a 49/45 spread on last weekend's survey

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-romney-tied-nationally.html

 

[Tim-E]

Why is PPP wasting resources on a daily tracker? ugh

 

[Loudninja]

There was not a ton of day to day movement in the first 3 days of the national tracker, but Wednesday after the debate was Obama's best

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-romney-tied-nationally.html

 

[Clevinger]

Silver isn't writing off the gallup poll

"Gallup poll real bad for Obama. Marquette poll (WI) pretty bad for Obama. Other polls pretty good for Obama. Canceled out in forecast."

 

[Fenderputty]

So when polling, LV's are peple who've voted in the past three elections correct? Which would mean anyone under 29 isn't being counted in the LV model? Obama's ground game has been pretty good so far. Would that also help explain the difference between the two models?

 

[Aaron Strife]

bu-bu-but gallup

They were one of the most inaccurate pollsters in 2008 and they've been an absolute mess lately; they are clearly an outlier compared to other daily trackers. In addition, daily trackers are 100% worthless thanks to the electoral college. Romney leading in national daily polls does not matter if he's behind in electoral math.

Past a certain threshold it can be indicative of an EV victory. If Romney really were up by 7 he'd have to be winning.

 

[Cheebo]

Silver isn't writing off the gallup poll

"Gallup poll real bad for Obama. Marquette poll (WI) pretty bad for Obama. Other polls pretty good for Obama. Canceled out in forecast."

He doesn't write off any poll. He includes pretty much everything.

 

[Tim-E]

Silver isn't writing off the gallup poll

"Gallup poll real bad for Obama. Marquette poll (WI) pretty bad for Obama. Other polls pretty good for Obama. Canceled out in forecast."

I've noticed that Silver's "analysis" isn't above trying his very hardest to paint the election as being as close as possible. Probably because he's working for NYT and they don't want people to get bored and stop coming to his blog.

 

[markatisu]

LOL @ Romney 47% fav/unfav, you can't make up the irony

 

[Loudninja]

LOL @ Romney 47% fav/unfav, you can't make up the irony

Hah just notice that.

 

[giga]

Seems like an accurate PPP poll. A 48-48 national tie is about right with the RCP average too. Keep fucking that chicken Gallup.

Obama is up 51/45 with women, 62/34 with Hispanics, 87/8 with African Americans, and 57/38 with young voters. Romney is ahead 50/45 with men, 46/41 with independents, 58/38 with whites, and 53/43 with seniors.

Voters narrowly disapprove of Obama's job performance, with 46% of voters giving him good marks to 50% unhappy with how he's doing. That's actually up a little bit from a 44/53 spread over the weekend though. Americans are split right down the middle in their assessments of Romney- 47% see him favorably and 47% unfavorably. That's down from a 49/45 spread on last weekend's survey.

“The race nationally couldn’t be much more of a toss up heading into the final days of the campaign,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “We look forward to keeping the public apprised of the day to day movement in the closing stretch.”
PPP surveyed 1,200 likely voters nationally between October 15th and 17th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-2.8%. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

 

[Cheebo]

I really wish PPP used these resources for more state polling though. National polls are just nonsense to determine who won the "news cycle" of the day.

 

[Loudninja]

I really wish PPP used these resources for more state polling though. National polls are just nonsense to determine who won the "news cycle" of the day.

I agreed.

 

[Black Mamba]

PPP is also showing Obama below what his black and his Hispanic vote will probably be so that is an encouraging sign.

Another poll that shows Gallup and outlier.

 

[Clevinger]

He doesn't write off any poll. He includes pretty much everything.

He includes everything, but he doesn't have a problem calling a poll garbage when he sees it.

 

[Tim-E]

I really wish PPP used these resources for more state polling though. National polls are just nonsense to determine who won the "news cycle" of the day.

Then why in god's name have you spent the last few weeks freaking out over them?

 

[Clevinger]

Then why in god's name have you spent the last few weeks freaking out over them?

Gallup's one of the most trusted pollsters. Gallup's one of the most trusted pollsters. Gallup's one of the most trusted pollsters. Gallup's one of the most trusted pollsters. Gallup's one of the most trusted pollsters. Gallup's one of the most trusted pollsters. Gallup's one of the most trusted pollsters. Gallup's one of the most trusted pollsters. Gallup's one of the most trusted pollsters. Gallup's one of the most trusted pollsters. Gallup's one of the most trusted pollsters. Gallup's one of the most trusted pollsters. Gallup's one of the most trusted pollsters. Gallup's one of the most trusted pollsters. Gallup's one of the most trusted pollsters. Gallup's one of the most trusted pollsters. Gallup's one of the most trusted pollsters. Gallup's one of the most trusted pollsters.

 

[Cloudy]

When do we get some post-debate OH numbers? As for the PPP poll, 20 points down with whites isn't good..

 

[Loudninja]

Actually I take that back,maybe PPP will keep people sane.

When do we get some post-debate OH numbers?

Saturday.

 

[Tim-E]

Gallup's one of the most trusted pollsters. Gallup's one of the most trusted pollsters. Gallup's one of the most trusted pollsters. Gallup's one of the most trusted pollsters. Gallup's one of the most trusted pollsters. Gallup's one of the most trusted pollsters. Gallup's one of the most trusted pollsters. Gallup's one of the most trusted pollsters. Gallup's one of the most trusted pollsters. Gallup's one of the most trusted pollsters. Gallup's one of the most trusted pollsters. Gallup's one of the most trusted pollsters. Gallup's one of the most trusted pollsters. Gallup's one of the most trusted pollsters. Gallup's one of the most trusted pollsters. Gallup's one of the most trusted pollsters. Gallup's one of the most trusted pollsters. Gallup's one of the most trusted pollsters.

How could I forget? Silly me!

 

[codhand]

Wednesday being the best day implies Romney had a general election lead going into the second debate, obvious, but still bad news for barry o
(whom I dont sleep on).

 

[Diablos]

Obama is up 51/45 with women, 62/34 with Hispanics, 87/8 with African Americans, and 57/38 with young voters. Romney is ahead 50/45 with men, 46/41 with independents, 58/38 with whites, and 53/43 with seniors.

I'm ok with all of this except the independent numbers... it is absolutely critical that he wins their vote.
And seniors? They're breaking for the voucher system? 10 point lead? What in the flying fuck?
Okay so this doesn't look so good after all.

Also, wtf is wrong with my fellow white people

 

[LegendofJoe]

I'm convinced that a major reason why Rasmussen and Gallup are considered as respectable as they are is because they both have easily recognizable names.

 

[Clevinger]

I'm ok with all of this except the independent numbers... it is absolutely critical that he wins their vote.

Romney may have called half the country leeches that he doesn't care about, but boy did he sure look presidential during that one debate.

 

[RustyNails]

They do matter, they are one of the most highly respected polling outlets there is. It is why this extreme outlier is so baffling. Coming from someone like Gallup is really weird. No one would be talking about it if it was Rasmussen or something.

At this moment in 2000, Bush was 51 and Gore was 40 in Gallup's poll.

 

[Diablos]

Romney may have called half the country leeches that he doesn't care about, but boy did he sure look presidential during that one debate.

*blood pressure rises*

Americans are so fucking stupid. Let's elect the guy that is to the right of Bush, who caused this mess, in the first place.

I continue to lose hope for this country.

 

[Forever]

I wish I could see the campaigns' internals.

 

[reilo]

Some Gallup perspective...

 

[Byakuya769]

PPP is also showing Obama below what his black and his Hispanic vote will probably be so that is an encouraging sign.

Another poll that shows Gallup and outlier.

Did you see Michael Jones at the debate? Obama will be lucky to get 70% of blacks!

Somewhere someone is making that argument.

 

[RustyNails]

I've noticed that Silver's "analysis" isn't above trying his very hardest to paint the election as being as close as possible. Probably because he's working for NYT and they don't want people to get bored and stop coming to his blog.

Nah. Nate's a smart dude. I think he's trying very hard to avoid falling in the partisan pollster category, especially now since he's working for NYT. Gallup's poll is bad for Obama. It's true. Now the internals of Gallup are an entirely different conversation.

 

[kingkitty]

if Obama loses the popular vote but still wins, mixed feelings will be had. Sure, Mitt keeps his claws off the white house but...no president should win this way, it's horse shit. It was a can of crap when Gore lost, it'd be a can of mixed feelings if Mitt goes out the same way.

I don't know how many times a presidential candidate needs to win the popular vote while still losing the election until people start realizing their archaic election system needs a good kick in the rear.

perhaps a tie of 269-269 might show the public just how bonkers the rules are. Would the Republican dominated Representatives vote for the guy who won the popular vote or just for their guy?. Maybe the Democrat controlled Senate votes for Joe Biden as Vice President regardless of who wins the vote in the lower house. We could have a fun awkward Romney/Biden presidency!

 

[PhoenixDark]

I don't think Romney will win the popular vote tbh. But if he does that will be a problem

 

[FuturusX]

Obama picture time...images to assist walking away from the ledge

Boss

It's okay Daddy not long now...

The good life..

Yeah...I got this

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

I don't think Romney will win the popular vote tbh. But if he does that will be a problem

I hope he does win the popular vote due to record turnout in the south.

 

[kirblar]

I've noticed that Silver's "analysis" isn't above trying his very hardest to paint the election as being as close as possible. Probably because he's working for NYT and they don't want people to get bored and stop coming to his blog.

I've noticed that as well. I don't like what being at the NYT has done to him.

 

[pigeon]

For the record, Ezra Klein is now rolling with the "jump off the fiscal cliff" strategy, and noting that this might be why Obama is being vague about exactly how he will accomplish his budget proposals:

I’ve criticized the Obama campaign for failing to detail much of a vision for a second term. But that’s not to say they don’t have one. They do. It’s just a hard one to campaign on....

The Obama administration believes – and, just as importantly, they believe Republicans believe — that they’ve got the leverage here. The Republican position on taxes is less popular than the Democratic position. The outcome of gridlock is much higher taxes, which is more anathema to Republicans and arguably cheering to Democrats. The big, dumb spending cuts, despite being poorly timed and inanely constructed, are very progressive in their effect, falling heavily on military spending while exempting Medicaid, Social Security, and Medicare beneficiaries.

I’ve called this the GOP’s dual-trigger nightmare. It’s bad for the economy, but it also effectively ends our deficits with a mix of tax increases and spending cuts more progressive than anything any Democrat has dared propose. Republicans absolutely can’t let it happen. But the only way they can stop it from happening is to make a deal.
The administration hopes this deal will include more than just deficit reduction. They also see it as a vehicle for infrastructure investment and tax reform. They think there’s some chance that parts of the American Jobs Act, like the hiring tax credits, could sneak through the door, too. There’s even talk of using it to address climate change, though everyone agrees that’s unlikely. Whatever ends up in the final deal, there’s little doubt that it will be a big deal, and it’s likely to come together fairly quickly in the first year. The White House — and the expiring tax and spending provisions — won’t give Republicans any other choice.

When Obama wins, AS HE IS ALMOST CERTAINLY STILL GOING TO FOR ALL KINDS OF OBVIOUS REASONS WE HAVE DISCUSSED BEFORE, look for fun times on the other side of the fiscal cliff.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...s-plan-push-republicans-off-the-fiscal-cliff/

 

[RustyNails]

if Obama loses the popular vote but still wins, mixed feelings will be had. Sure, Mitt keeps his claws off the white house but...no president should win this way, it's horse shit. It was a can of crap when Gore lost, it'd be a can of mixed feelings if Mitt goes out the same way.

I don't know how many times a presidential candidate needs to win the popular vote while still losing the election until people start realizing their archaic election system needs a good kick in the rear.

perhaps a tie of 269-269 might show the public just how bonkers the rules are. Would the Republican dominated Representatives vote for the guy who won the popular vote or just for their guy?. Maybe the Democrat controlled Senate votes for Joe Biden as Vice President regardless of who wins the vote in the lower house. We could have a fun awkward Romney/Biden presidency!

Never been a fan of "lets hope the country gets destroyed maybe that will wake the sheeple up!" ideas.

 

[kingkitty]

Never been a fan of "lets hope the country gets destroyed maybe that will wake the sheeple up!" ideas.

a romney/biden presidency isn't going to destroy the country. just lots of awkward shenanigans. plenty of books will be written of it, maybe a movie too.

edit:
Biden will probably get his office moved to a closet somewhere.

 

[B-Dubs]

a romney/biden presidenscy isn't going to destroy the country. just lots of awkward shenanigans. plenty of books will be written of it, maybe a movie too.

Biden would throw him under the bus in a minute.

 

[HylianTom]

I hope he does win the popular vote due to record turnout in the south.

It would be hilarious. I can already hear my relatives claiming that "he's not President here in the South!" while I fight to stifle the urge to laugh like a maniac.