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[speculawyer]

lol wtf

What the hell is wrong with Gallup?

Gallup is a joke.

wtf

Meh. Sometimes you strike out with a non-random sampling and get bad results. The fact that their numbers are so far away from everyone else indicates this may be the case.

I think polling is much more difficult these days because of various reasons
-Cell phones have really thrown a monkey wrench into things
-A much more cynical and manipulative public.

15% of people polled said that Romney was more responsible for Bin Laden's death than Obama. Now clearly, those are people just fucking with pollsters because it is an illogical answer. People do that these days. A couple of Romney supporters claiming to be independent/liberal that say they'll vote for Romney can really throw off the results of a poll.

 

[B-Dubs]

Bruce out there playing his new song "Forward"

The Boss has a new song? I must have it.

 

[PhoenixDark]

No candidate over 50% in gallup's poll at this time has ever lost

 

[Plumbob]

No candidate over 50% in gallup's poll at this time has ever lost

http://xkcd.com/1122/

 

[Loudninja]

New Obama ad
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=fhppCd4cWUk

 

[RDreamer]

I'm seeing a story on CNN about voter registration cards in Spanish in Arizona havin the election date as November 8

 

[speculawyer]

Bruce out there playing his new song "Forward"

As a long-time Bruce fan, his new partisan role is a little weird. The subtext of his lyrics have long revealed a more liberal position but he stood steadfastly as non partisan for a long time. He then started leaning more to the left. He's now totally abandoned being non-partisan now. I guess he's in semi-retirement these days so he just does whatever he wants.

 

[Drek]

Meh. Sometimes you strike out with a non-random sampling and get bad results. The fact that their numbers are so far away from everyone else indicates this may be the case.

I think polling is much more difficult these days because of various reasons
-Cell phones have really thrown a monkey wrench into things
-A much more cynical and manipulative public.

15% of people polled said that Romney was more responsible for Bin Laden's death than Obama. Now clearly, those are people just fucking with pollsters because it is an illogical answer. People do that these days. A couple of Romney supporters claiming to be independent/liberal that say they'll vote for Romney can really throw off the results of a poll.

Yep. Only takes a few dozen tea party "independents" to dick up a likely voter model and sink a poll.

Now imagine you do a 7ysi day rolling average. You have an entire week to poll before moving a single dishonest group out of the model. Add that they're using a pretty unproven model and you have a recipe for errors.

It would be nice if Gallup could give dailies plus detailed breakdowns on the raw data.

 

[RustyNails]

No candidate over 50% in gallup's poll at this time has ever lost

No black president has won a re-election either.

 

[TiVo]

As a long-time Bruce fan, his new partisan role is a little weird. The subtext of his lyrics have long revealed a more liberal position but he stood steadfastly as non partisan for a long time. He then started leaning more to the left. He's now totally abandoned being non-partisan now. I guess he's in semi-retirement these days so he just does whatever he wants.

Every country singer(Hank Williams Jr., Ted Nugent, Guy from Metallica, etc.) out there except Dixie Chicks > Bruce Springsteen
When it comes to being non-partisan

 

[Tim-E]

Is Diablos okay?

 

[Loudninja]

Va. Sheriff Investigating GOP Tie To Trashed Voter Forms

A Virgina sheriff confirmed to TPM on Thursday that his office is investigating whether a man seen tossing completed voter registration forms into a dumpster is connected to the state Republican Party.

Rockingham County Sheriff Bryan Hutcheson (R) said his office may make an announcement about the case as soon as Thursday afternoon depending up the outcome of interviews conducted earlier in the day.

His office began investigating after manager Rob Johnson at a home good store called Tuesday Morning in Harrisonburg, Va. spotted a man on Monday afternoon throwing eight voter registration forms into a dumpster behind the shopping center where he works.

In an interview with TPM on Wednesday, Johnson said the man was driving a black Toyota with Pennsylvania license plates. He said he thought he saw the same car parked outside the Republican Party’s Harrisonburg Victory Office the following day. The office is just down the street from the shopping center.

“I spotted the car that the gentleman was driving when he threw the voter registration applications into the dumpster parked in front of the Republican campaign headquarters,” Johnson said.

A staffer at the Harrisonburg Victory Office referred TPM to the Republican Party of Virginia, which has not responded to repeated requests for comment.

Virginia does not register voters by political party, so it would be difficult for someone to discard forms from their political opponents. Rockingham County Registrar Doug Geib said that his office was able to process the recovered forms after receiving advice from the Virginia State Board of Elections.

http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsme...ublican_voter_registration.php?ref=fpnewsfeed

 

[Particle Physicist]

I'm seeing a story on CNN about voter registration cards in Spanish in Arizona havin the election date as November 8

Clearly a harmless mistake!


here is the news piece:

http://www.cnn.com/2012/10/18/us/arizona-spanish-election-ballot/index.html

 

[CaptainSchwann]

Living in Alabama makes all of gallups polls even more depressing. I feel like the only Obama supporter on Earth down here lol

 

[Black Mamba]

Does Gallup even know what it's polling? How are their two models even diverging this late?

Romney up 7. Lmao

 

[Angry Grimace]

Any model showing a 50+ for Romney is suspect in my eyes. I just don't see it, particularly not because he won the first debate, i.e. he scratched his nose at the exact right moment causing some pundit to say he's more presidential or whatever.

 

[AniHawk]

Not concerned about Gallup anymore, outside of the inevitable voter fraud charges if Obama wins while down in their poll. They switched their methodology recently and it's clearly off.

I hate even exposing myself to charges of skewing but come the fuck on

weird thing is, the switching of their methodology was supposed to be a plus for obama. instead it's been the opposite of what i just said.

 

[Tim-E]

Gawker reports a mysterious new website promising "an October Surprise that will change the 2012 election."

The big news -- which is hinted in blurry teaser documents -- will be unveiled at 5:30 PM ET on October 22nd.

Let the speculation begin.

http://octsurprise.com/

 

[codhand]

Va. Sheriff Investigating GOP Tie To Trashed Voter Forms

http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsme...ublican_voter_registration.php?ref=fpnewsfeed

ha my best friend lives in hburg, cool town,

 

[Loudninja]

http://octsurprise.com/

Already posted its trash.

 

[Father_Brain]

No candidate over 50% in gallup's poll at this time has ever lost

And every other time a candidate has been over 50% Gallup LV in mid-October, has that result been backed up by other polls?

 

[B-Dubs]

http://octsurprise.com/

Didn't we do this last night?

 

[Tim-E]

It just popped up on Political Wire, and I wasn't around last night. I see that it's garbage now. Weird that Goddard would post it now.


Excuuuuuse me, pricess!

 

[PhoenixDark]

weird thing is, the switching of their methodology was supposed to be a plus for obama. instead it's been the opposite of what i just said.

While they are calling more cell users, they are also calling more white and elderly voters than before

 

[Diablos]

What the fuck is wrong with Gallup? How can he be averaging at 50% in the daily approval but down by 7 in the LV model?

Something is seriously wrong... wtf

Also Mitt can drop Libya but what's that gonna do for him at the debate? What's he gonna do? Try to tie his defense budget and then repealing Obamacare into making a case for the economy?

Dumping money into PA and MI is stupid, WI I understand though. I really hope Bams can eek out a win in VA, he's going to need it if something unexpected happens. CO too. Obama should just take all the money and resources from FL and NC and dump them into VA, and to a lesser extent CO.

Gallup's tweaked model might be the culprit for the LV data but you can't help but feel a little uncomfortable when you see it continue to grow for Mitt.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

What the fuck is wrong with Gallup? How can he be averaging at 50% in the daily approval but down by 7 in the LV model?

Something is seriously wrong

At this point I think someone in the media or polling analysts like Nate needs to ask them what's going on.

 

[Baraka in the White House]

It's three weeks until the Election and people stop giving a shit about Gallup.

Until then, they're going for glory.

 

[Tim-E]

It's three weeks until the Election

This is the first time it's really hit my just how close election day is.

 

[Renji_11]

Obama still campaigning in VA he's got a rally in Fairfax tomorrow that I'll probably go to.

 

[gcubed]

While they are calling more cell users, they are also calling more white and elderly voters than before

i could have sworn there was a story about them using straight 2010 turnout numbers for their polling basis

 

[HylianTom]

President Obama's daughters' school is beng evacuated due to a suspicious package.. breaking..

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/18/sidwell-friends-evacuation_n_1980304.html?utm_hp_ref=dc

Update: it was someone's bookbag. smh

 

[Crisco]

Obama should come to Utah. Obviously he has no chance of winning the state, but he would get a MASSIVE crowd in salt lake city, which would make for some nice optics.

 

[Tim-E]

i could have sworn there was a story about them using straight 2010 turnout numbers for their polling basis

There was, but I had assumed that they would have stopped by now. Are they still using those numbers?

looooooooool

 

[Cheebo]

This Gallup thing is so weird, they were one of the best pollsters in 2008.

 

[mckmas8808]

http://www.mediaite.com/tv/ben-stein-stuns-fox-friends-all-due-respect-to-fox-but-taxes-are-too-low/



Has hell frozen? Why is Ben Stein making sense?

I'm sorry Ben Stein but $9,600 every two weeks before taxes on a check is rich.

 

[DasRaven]

Obama should come to Utah. Obviously he has no chance of winning the state, but he would get a MASSIVE crowd in salt lake city, which would make for some nice optics.

That would be some incredible optics in front of the Tabernacle's reflecting pool.
I have a bunch of friends in SLC. Good town, smelly though.

 

[Incognito]

Starting to think romney's big foreign policy speech last week is really what's moving the needle

 

[gcubed]

There was, but I had assumed that they would have stopped by now. Are they still using those numbers?

looooooooool

a large sampling of south, white and elderly sounds to me like 2010

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

This Gallup thing is so weird, they were one of the best pollsters in 2008.

Not really. They had 3 likely voter models and their final numbers were off by 4-5 points.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Gallup made their bed, nothing we can do. Obama has lost ground consistently since they changed their model, and that probably won't change

The problem is that if Obama wins a close election we are going to see multiple fraud stories, and once again the GOP will give credibility to fringe voices on the far right. We're going to have a very, very ugly election aftermath if Obama wins. The south might guarantee a virtual vote % tie nationally

 

[Aaron Strife]

Gallup's really going to look stupid if Obama wins the popular vote by any margin.

 

[ivysaur12]

And now there's an OT thread for the Gallup poll. Not touching that.

 

[Diablos]

Now more than ever I'm reminded how much it sucks that the census data has given an advantage to red states. Assuming the GOP takes back FL, we're looking at, what, +8 for the GOP's EV prospects and -5 for Democrats? That sucks. If the results are super tight, the census data is what could let Romney win, whereas in 2008 it would have given Dems a slight edge instead.

 

[thekad]

This Gallup thing is so weird, they were one of the best pollsters in 2008.

No, they weren't.

They were one of the worst.

They were one of the worst in 2010, too.

 

[HylianTom]

Gallup's really going to look stupid if Obama wins the popular vote by any margin.

I'm still thinking there's a small-but-not-teensy chance that we get to see a split.

 

[TommyT]

Holy jeez PoliGAF is moving fast. Is this the norm?

 

[speculawyer]

While they are calling more cell users, they are also calling more white and elderly voters than before

And just calling more cell phones does not solve the cell phone issue. Caller ID changes things. When I was growing up when the phone rang, you answered it. There was no voicemail, there was no caller ID, there was no texting instead of answering, etc. So even with calling more cell phones, an old person is more likely to answer their phone than a younger person.

 

[Hitokage]

Holy jeez PoliGAF is moving fast. Is this the norm?

Not really, but the election looms ever closer.

 

[AlteredBeast]

Starting to think romney's big foreign policy speech last week is really what's moving the needle

I am glad you are keeping these posts to a one-sentence maximum. For me, they are sublime. The brevity is harder to hook people with.

 

[Tim-E]

This Gallup thing is so weird, they were one of the best pollsters in 2008.

Will you stop acting like they matter now?