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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.

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Watching the Al Smith speeches now...it's incredible how even when Romney is supposed to be relaxed and joking around, he's still smug and obnoxious. As much as I dislike(d) McCain, at least he knew that you can't make fun of other people until you show you can make fun of yourself. Romney tells the joke about wearing tuxedos around the house, and looks like he wants to slug the poor peon who wrote the joke.
 

Ecotic

Member
Why does Realclearpolitics not include so many credible polls in their average, like PPP's national poll for example? Have they ever given a reason?
 

massoluk

Banned
Watching the Al Smith speeches now...it's incredible how even when Romney is supposed to be relaxed and joking around, he's still smug and obnoxious. As much as I dislike(d) McCain, at least he knew that you can't make fun of other people until you show you can make fun of yourself. Romney tells the joke about wearing tuxedos around the house, and looks like he wants to slug the poor peon who wrote the joke.

You are crazy. Romney delivered great jokes there.
 
So Rand moved back (But still good or O) and PPP and Ras moving towards Obama?

Good news to me. I'm predicting a shift of 1-2 points post debate, bringing things back in line with the expectation of a narrow Obama victory, so that's good to hear.

And wow, swing state polling has actually been fantastic for Obama the last couple of days. My initial thought was he would go 2008 - NC, FL, Indiana, which looks somewhat accurate to me.

I don't think it's important as the IA, OH, NV route seems to be holding, but WTF is happening in NH? It went from like Obama +7 to a dead heat recently? Given it's proximity to MA, I'm wondering if Romney doesn't have a good ground game there which will help him take it.
 

Tim-E

Member
I think RAND move to where the national percentage actually is, +2-3% for Obama.


Yeah, wind energy is growing in Iowa from my understanding. Wind subsidies is something Romney has been vocally against, which is one of the reasons I see the state as a safe one for Obama.
 
I'd be all for a Clinton/Schweitzer ticket, but I think it's a bit early to be predicting vice presidential nominees four years from now :p

I still don't think Clinton runs. She runs in 2016, she'll be in office (or running for it) until she's dead. I really don't see that kind of drive there.
 

Brinbe

Member
So Rand moved back (But still good or O) and PPP and Ras moving towards Obama?

Good news to me. I'm predicting a shift of 1-2 points post debate, bringing things back in line with the expectation of a narrow Obama victory, so that's good to hear.

And wow, swing state polling has actually been fantastic for Obama the last couple of days. My initial thought was he would go 2008 - NC, FL, Indiana, which looks somewhat accurate to me.

I don't think it's important as the IA, OH, NV route seems to be holding, but WTF is happening in NH? It went from like Obama +7 to a dead heat recently? Given it's proximity to MA, I'm wondering if Romney doesn't have a good ground game there which will help him take it.
Nah, NH is always like that. They're all about "Live Free or Die" independent shit. Remember it went for Bush in 2000 and always had a hard-on for McCain. So always expect polling volatility there. But NV pretty much counter-acts it anyway, so no big loss if Romney does pick it up (which I sincerely doubt anyway).
 

codhand

Member
PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls

Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 48-47 based on the last 3 nights of our national tracking:

Obama's seen a small gain in support from his base- from 84/13 to 86/12 with Democrats. GOP and indys unchanged:

Obama's deficit with white voters back below 20 points at 57/39- that may be the magic number:

Obama trailing nationally with every age group but young voters- but 60/36 lead with them gives him small overall lead:

Obama leads 51/44 nationally with women. Romney leads by identical 51/44 margin with men:

Romney's national favorability has dipped slightly back under water to 47/48, first time since before the first debate:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-leads-by-1-point-in-tracker.html
 

Tim-E

Member
It's difficult to predict where the party will be in four years, anyway. After the 2004 election everyone assumed that Hillary would cruise into 2008 without any trouble and I don't think that Obama was even considered by most to be a viable candidate since he had just been elected to the Senate.

Everyone also assumed that Rudy would be the 2008 nominee, as well. :p
 

Brinbe

Member
Nice, almost every tracker but Gallup is coalescing around that small Obama lead, which isn't perfect or even good enough, but it's better than that +7 nonsense.
 

Hunter S.

Member
I still don't think Clinton runs. She runs in 2016, she'll be in office (or running for it) until she's dead. I really don't see that kind of drive there.
Hard to say she will be 68 at that time four years younger than John McCain when he ran and 3 years older than the hair dying Mitt who looks youthful and handsome for his age.
 
Hard to say she will be 68 at that time four years younger than John McCain when he ran and 3 years older than the hair dying Mitt who looks youthful and handsome for his age.

McCain was too old to be running and it showed. But that's a guy that's wanted to be president and had been running since 2000, but 2008 McCain had only a shadow of the vigor he did 8 years before. Imagine him trying to run for re-election now? He'd be crushed.

Mitt isn't youthful at all, I admit, but this is a guy that sank 30 million of his own money and spent the last 4 years doing nothing but prepare to run again. That's a driven guy.

Hillary by all accounts didn't want the secretary of state job, and I don't see her as the type to go heavily into debt again on another campaign. When she says she's tired of it and done with politics, it feels genuine.
 

richiek

steals Justin Bieber DVDs
http://freakoutnation.blogspot.com/2012/10/when-morals-politics-cross.html

So basically, after Paul Ryan's phony ass soup kitchen PR stunt, the people who ran the soup kitchen criticized him, which caused conservatives to seek revenge:

The soup kitchen is operated by the Mahoning County’s St. Vincent de Paul Society. Located on Front Street in downtown Youngstown, deep in the heart of the “Rust Belt”, it is an area that was devastated when the steel industry began to vacate 35 years ago last month. The area has never fully recovered from the loss and the soup kitchen is still badly needed to this day.

The charity is composed of women and men, or “Vincentians”, who seek their “personal holiness through works of charity” according to their website. Funding for the society is largely through private donations. This year the society raised nearly $200,000. Those donations are currently being threatened.

When the president of Mahoning County’s St. Vincent de Paul Society, Brian J. Antal, stated that he was “shocked” and “angry” that Republican vice-presidential nominee Paul Ryan used the soup kitchen for a “publicity stunt”, it set the ball rolling for the extreme right wing. While trying to maintain a nonpartisan stance of not supporting either candidate for office, he inadvertently triggered the “Must Destroy” reflex of the conservatives for appearing to attack their candidate.

It didn't take long for them to reach out on the Facebook page of the charity to show their distaste. “Mr. Antel you are an idiot.”, started one scholar. “Anyone who is thinking about donations to you should think twice.”

“HAVE YOU ANY IDEA ON HOW MANY ARE GOING TO WALK AWAY FROM YOUR ORGANIZATION BECAUSE OF THE COMPLAINTS FROM YOUR PRESIDENT?”, came from another, who seems to have problems with their capslock.

“… a typical democratic thinking people shouldnt be allowed to speak or vote because they have a different opinion. You know Hitler thought the same thing.”, spouted the history buff at another user defending the society.

Not only were there calls on Facebook threatening his position and the donations to the charity, according to The Huffington Post in a phone interview with Antel, hundreds of phone calls flooded their office, most of them anonymous. The effect of monetary losses have been big. “It appears to be a substantial amount,” Antal said. “You can rest assured there has been a substantial backlash.” He goes on to say doesn’t understand why donors would take out their frustration over the incident on those who can’t afford to pay for their own meals. “I’m a volunteer,’ he told HuffPo. “I receive zero compensation. Withholding donations is only going to hurt the over 100,000 we serve annually.”

Fucking disgusting. So much for Republicans acting like charitable Christians.
 

ISOM

Member

Particle Physicist

between a quark and a baryon
Trolling on TV . . . two trolls in one video.

First Whoopie trolls Ann Romney then Lawrence O'Donnell trolls Tagg.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45755883/ns/msnbc-the_last_word/#49472310


And I thought I've been getting a little testy at times.


Watching that now, I like how Ann said that one of her sons serves the Army as a doctor treating vets... and then later they show the guy explaining that he is a resident and works for a VA hospital.. in other words, it sounds like working at the VA hospital is part of the residency program and not necessarily something he is going out of his way to do.
 

Hunter S.

Member
McCain was too old to be running and it showed. But that's a guy that's wanted to be president and had been running since 2000, but 2008 McCain had only a shadow of the vigor he did 8 years before. Imagine him trying to run for re-election now? He'd be crushed.

Mitt isn't youthful at all, I admit, but this is a guy that sank 30 million of his own money and spent the last 4 years doing nothing but prepare to run again. That's a driven guy.

Hillary by all accounts didn't want the secretary of state job, and I don't see her as the type to go heavily into debt again on another campaign. When she says she's tired of it and done with politics, it feels genuine.

Without getting too heavy on the speculation here, it is possible to think her main motivation to be Secretary of State was to remain a high figure in politics so if she chose to run again her name and background would make her the strongest candidate in the future. We have four years to see.
 
Without getting too heavy on the speculation here, it is possible to think her main motivation to be Secretary of State was to remain a high figure in politics so if she chose to run again her name and background would make her the strongest candidate in the future. We have four years to see.

If game change has any truth to it, Hillary did not want that job and really had to be talked into it by Obama. It wasn't some kind of Hillary master plan
 

Kai Dracon

Writing a dinosaur space opera symphony
The best (worst) part about conservatives descending on the soup kitchen is that Antel was exposing Ryan for pulling a trick. Not criticizing the Romney/Ryan ticket or anything conservative.

And that alone triggered Republican Rage Mode.

Message: we're not about being honest, or good people, just about destroying everyone else and dominating. Get in our way, and we'll destroy you too.
 
Really after all Obama has done for Iowa and Ohio I would be shocked if those states turned on him now.

Not to mention that the Obama campaing has 5x the field offices in Iowa as Romney. I'm going to predict that Iowa goes +2 over the polling average for Obama on election day because of his ground game advantage. Ohio, +1.5, and Fl. +2

(also, where's Jadedx to say they need to step up the FL ground game?)

This article lays out the numbers,

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articl...ign-opens-up-a-big-lead-in-field-offices.html

1350636383322.cached.png

Though, I love that after showing these great numbers it's like "Hey, lets only get quotes from republicans on how amazing their ground game REALLY is."

Seriously, if it was so great we'd probably be seeing that in the early voting numbers, or something.
 

Kettch

Member
Holy shit. It's a goddamn charity.. privately funded at that! Reprehensible.

And this why they're non-partisan in the first place, so that crap like this doesn't happen. Entire thing was an insensitive, dick move by Ryan. They were screwed no matter what, either looking like they support the Republican ticket by not saying anything or having it turn out this way.
 

AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
Man, if Romney wins any state it would be a miracle. Obama I think did the smart thing by taking the fight directly to the people via campaign offices. People tune out political ads and phone banks.
 
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