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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.

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G

giga

Member
qWiD+


I think we can all agree that Gallup is right and everyone else is wrong.
 
E

electricpirate

Member
AlteredBeast said:
Man, if Romney wins any state it would be a miracle. Obama I think did the smart thing by taking the fight directly to the people via campaign offices. People tune out political ads and phone banks.
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Not sure if sarcasm, or mistyped and meant swing states...

Either way, Not sure if it's going to be enough to win in say, (edit) NC, but if this thing comes down to polling with a tie, or slight Obama lead, I'm not worried, that's all I'm saying. I'm not saying a ground game can make any state blue, but it has can easily push a couple of extra percent on election day.
 
A

AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
electricpirate said:
Not sure if sarcasm, or mistyped and meant swing states...

Either way, Not sure if it's going to be enough to win in say, FL, but if this thing comes down to polling with a tie, or slight Obama lead, I'm not worried, that's all I'm saying. I'm not saying a ground game can make any state blue, but it has can easily push a couple of extra percent on election day.
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Sorry, for someone who might not read my posts on a consistent basis, I always post half-snark, half-sarcasm, and all truth.
 
F

Frank the Great

Banned
Kaijima said:
The best (worst) part about conservatives descending on the soup kitchen is that Antel was exposing Ryan for pulling a trick. Not criticizing the Romney/Ryan ticket or anything conservative.

And that alone triggered Republican Rage Mode.

Message: we're not about being honest, or good people, just about destroying everyone else and dominating. Get in our way, and we'll destroy you too.
Click to expand...

yup. very similar to how they all started criticizing candy crowley for pointing out that their candidate lied, instead of being concerned that their presidential candidate was lying to their faces.
 
R

RDreamer

Member
Kaijima said:
Message: we're not about being honest, or good people, just about destroying everyone else and dominating. Get in our way, and we'll destroy you too.
Click to expand...

This is also why they don't seem to care about Romney taking one stance with some people and then walking it back hours later. Doesn't matter what he does or says anymore as long as he wins.
 
S

Sirpopopop

Member
Been looking at polls for non-competitive states.

I'm starting to think Democrats need to start doing concentrated pushes in Georgia and South Carolina next cycle.

Especially South Carolina. You won't get the Upstate area, but the lowcountry (Charleston) & Midlands (Columbia) could provide better democrat margins with a bigger push. You won't win the state, but you'll force the Republicans to compete there on what should be solid ground.

On the other hand with Georgia - demographics. They are starting to shift in the Dems favor down there. Legit shot to win there I think.
 
F

Frank the Great

Banned
Sirpopopop said:
Been looking at polls for non-competitive states.

I'm starting to think Democrats need to start doing concentrated pushes in Georgia and South Carolina next cycle.

Especially South Carolina. You won't get the Upstate area, but the lowcountry (Charleston) & Midlands (Columbia) could provide better democrat margins with a bigger push. You won't win the state, but you'll force the Republicans to compete there on what should be solid ground.

On the other hand with Georgia - demographics. They are starting to shift in the Dems favor down there. Legit shot to win there I think.
Click to expand...

i see arizona as the prime target. eleven EVs is huge and more realistic than georgia or SC switching imo.
 
T

TacticalFox88

Banned
Sirpopopop said:
Been looking at polls for non-competitive states.

I'm starting to think Democrats need to start doing concentrated pushes in Georgia and South Carolina next cycle.

Especially South Carolina. You won't get the Upstate area, but the lowcountry (Charleston) & Midlands (Columbia) could provide better democrat margins with a bigger push. You won't win the state, but you'll force the Republicans to compete there on what should be solid ground.

On the other hand with Georgia - demographics. They are starting to shift in the Dems favor down there. Legit shot to win there I think.
Click to expand...

THe fact that it's even POSSIBLE to make gains in SC for Dems should speak volumes of how fucked the Republicans are in the future.
 
T

Tim-E

Member
Sirpopopop said:
Been looking at polls for non-competitive states.

I'm starting to think Democrats need to start doing concentrated pushes in Georgia and South Carolina next cycle.

Especially South Carolina. You won't get the Upstate area, but the lowcountry (Charleston) & Midlands (Columbia) could provide better democrat margins with a bigger push. You won't win the state, but you'll force the Republicans to compete there on what should be solid ground.

On the other hand with Georgia - demographics. They are starting to shift in the Dems favor down there. Legit shot to win there I think.
Click to expand...

I think a candidate like Schweitzer would put states like Georgia, Arkansas, West Virginia, and Montana in play.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
The Post has a quick hit piece on the scholarship program Romney mentioned on Tuesday. I just thought I'd mention it because I've heard legends that once, in sunnier days, people used to actually discuss policy here:

wapo said:
While Mitt Romney’s tenure as Massachusetts governor is perhaps most notable for the enactment of same-sex marriage and mandate-enforced universal health care, the policy that Romney himself brings up the most is the John and Abigail Adams Scholarship program.
Under that plan, Massachusetts students who score in the top 25 percent of their school district on standardized tests get to attend state universities without paying tuition. He mentioned the program in his first answer at the town hall debate this week, as evidence that he’ll fight to make college more affordable.
Only problem: according to education researchers, the Adams scholarships are a raw deal....

The program, the authors find, had “no statistically significant impact on overall enrollment rates at four-year colleges.”
What’s more, the students who took advantage of the scholarship, by choosing schools with lower graduation rates, reduced their odds of graduating from college by 26 percentage points. 52 percent of Adams eligible students graduated in four years, whereas only 41 percent of Adams users did. This in turn reduced Adams users’ expected lifetime earnings by $250,000. What’s more, the lower educational quality of the schools reduced earnings by $110,000. The $7,000, by any metric, wasn’t worth it.
And even if the program worked as intended, it didn’t primarily benefit poor or minority students. Indeed, it disproportionately helped rich, white students.
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http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...re-education-law-failed/?wprss=rss_ezra-klein

Basically, merit-based scholarships just don't work well as education programs, because the factors they measure are heavily linked to income, which a) means the marginal benefit per dollar is worse and b) means it targets people who were already heavily favored to succeed -- and c) distorts their actions with financial incentives, screwing up on of the only parts of the educational structure that was actually interacting healthily with the free market.

This might tie in reasonably well with the affirmative action discussions that came up earlier, and why it may be insufficient to weakly target instead of strongly target demographics that need aid.
 
S

Sirpopopop

Member
Ultimately I think it would be easier to push South Carolina into "competitive" territory, but it would be harder to win that state than Georgia.

By that I mean you could get the margin in South Carolina to 2-3 points for the Republican candidate. However, getting that last push will be very hard.

I think it would be easier to make a full conversion in Georgia, but the initial "sledding" would be much more difficult.
 
C

Crisco

Banned
NH always seem to poll closer than the actual results. I think the people there genuinely consider voting GOP, but when they get to the polls they think "wtf am I doing, those people are insane" and come to their senses.
 
D

Diablos

Member
Black Republican said:
O really took a hit with indies this election
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No kidding. Stupid white people. You need indies to win by a decent margin, so I find this semi-troubling. But the state by state data looks rather promising. So confusing argh.

I really do hope that Bams wins the popular vote too, otherwise the GOP will be filing lawsuits and crying foul like Dems did in 2000, and we don't want this going to a conservative-leaning SCOUTS, potentially
 
F

Frank the Great

Banned
Diablos said:
WTF, this is bullshit
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i wouldn't be concerned about NH. the only scenario that where it becomes relevant is if bams loses NV+IA, and even then it would only be good for a tie.

of course there is the weird scenario where bams loses WI and CO, but keeps NV and IA. then, NH would become critical to him reaching 271. but if WI goes red then obama is already fucked because the other swing states will go with it.
 
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