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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.

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P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Downhome said:
This is why Obama, or any sitting President, shouldn't go on shows like The Daily Show and all of those sorts of things. I agree that he didn't really mean anything by it, but when the mother comes out like this, it just makes it look that much worse.

*apparent banned site*
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yawn

Seems to confirm Romney will run with this on Monday. Good luck
 
A

AniHawk

Member
pigeon said:
Hmm. So the PPP poll and the Marist poll actually agree in nearly every respect -- about a third of voters have voted already and Obama wins them about 3-2, while among voters who will vote on Election Day Romney leads by about 15-17 points.

The difference between them is that Marist breaks out an additional ten percent of voters who say they are GOING to vote early but haven't yet done so, and Obama leads them by a large margin as well. That boost, plus the reduction in the "will vote in November" demographic, accounts for the large swing.

I'm honestly not sure what to make of that, but it's clear at least that lots of people have voted early in Iowa and that Obama leads among them solidly. Remember that this is a likely voter poll and that Obama's early voting campaign is targeted at converting unlikely voters to banked votes. Overall I think the picture is still good in Iowa.
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that's pretty encouraging.

using 2008 numbers:

votes cast in iowa per ppp polling:

obama: 245,520
romney: 119,040

election day split:

obama: 322,920 | 568,440 | 47.37%
romney: 463,680 | 582,720 | 48.56%

...

well i guess that literally is their 1-point difference in favor of romney. interesting. romney is going to get a LOT of support on election day. obama really needs to pull people in between now and then.
 
T

thekad

Banned
Good thing for Obama is the early votes are already locked in. If he's leading by huge margins at what's been called Romney's peak, the pressure is on Romney to be perfect from here on out.
 
B

bananas

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
yawn
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Why are you not trolling anymore?

DApXE.gif
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
AniHawk said:
that's kinda funny considering the state polling is now looking not-so-awesome suddenly.

i think if ppp polls ohio again, we'll find it more like +2 or +1 than +5 like last time.
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The state polling looked incredible yesterday. It's really just two polls that we're "worried" about. Both with Obama only down 1.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
bananas said:
Why are you not trolling anymore?

DApXE.gif
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Nah, I just think that's a gutter move. Does anyone think Obama doesn't give a shit that four Americans died, or was belittling the deaths of these Americans while discussing this with Jon Stewart? This is just another case of buzzword foreign policy.

I really want to see how Romney will use this phrase on monday, and how Obama will respond. Obama should just say he's not going to politicize the deaths of Americans, nor will he be lectured on foreign policy by someone who's only experience with foreign policy is through shipping jobs to China.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
6a00d83451c45669e2017ee44900c1970d-550wi


Kevitivity said:
I think it's very telling that BO is attacking Romney rather than talking about the hope and change he plans to bring the next four years. Very telling...

Also not surprised to see that Romney has finally pulled ahead in likability in some polls.

http://washingtonexaminer.com/for-f...ting-tops-obamas/article/2511203#.UIGZq4V9m52
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Personally, I'm not surprised to see you bring up the conservative talking points of the day. Unfortunately by the time you get here there are already progressive articles refuting them:

tnr said:
The conventional wisdom about Tuesday’s debate has taken shape. President Obama performed better than Mitt Romney, maybe even a lot better. But he failed to describe a governing vision for the future. This has been a persistent weakness of his campaign, the argument goes, and it’s becoming a huge liability.

It makes complete sense. Just imagine what would have happened on Tuesday if Obama had described a series of specific economic proposals—if, say, he had called for tax incentives to bolster manufacturing, investments in community colleges that train people for local jobs, more development of green energy, and a deficit reduction package that blended spending cuts with higher taxes for the wealthy.

Oh, wait. He did—in response to the very first question he got at Hofstra University on Tuesday night. If you don’t believe me, go to the transcript and search for “Number one, I want to build…”

I counted five distinct ideas in that soliloquy—each very brief, for sure, but each referring back to a very specific proposal that Obama has introduced sometime in the past year. Some of them were part of the American Jobs Act, which independent, respected economists said would create a few hundred thousand and maybe more than a million new jobs over the course of a year. Some of them were part of Obama’s latest budget and deficit reduction proposals, which projections show would stop the debt increasing relative to the economy about a year from now and then cause it to decline, slightly, for the next decade....

But the idea that Obama hasn’t laid out a specific agenda for the future is just nonsense. And it’s particularly galling to hear it from conservatives, who have been pushing this argument for a while, when the charge happens to apply to their preferred choice for president. Yes, Romney talks constantly about his “five-point plan.” But it’s not really a plan. It’s a set of bullet points, largely bereft of dollar figures and other details. And while the Romney campaign has been touting studies that supposedly show his jobs agenda would create 12 million new jobs, that claim, too, turns out to be false—as the Washington Post’s Glenn Kessler pointed out this week.
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http://www.tnr.com/blog/plank/108849/obama-hasnt-laid-out-governing-vision-agenda-debate-hofstra
 
B

bananas

Banned
We may all seem confident, but we're all secretly chicken littles who have to bury anyone who disagrees with us. It's the only thing that makes us feel like men.
 
C

Crisco

Banned
Doesn't the NV polling basically negate a possible loss in Iowa or NH? As long as Obama wins Ohio all he needs is one of like five other states that he's either leading or tied in to win.
 
R

Red Blaster

Member
AniHawk said:
that's kinda funny considering the state polling is now looking not-so-awesome suddenly.

i think if ppp polls ohio again, we'll find it more like +2 or +1 than +5 like last time.
Click to expand...

With dat Obama ground game I think there's a decent buffer that doesn't appear in these polls
 
A

AniHawk

Member
Crisco said:
Doesn't the NV polling basically negate a possible loss in Iowa or NH? As long as Obama wins Ohio all he needs is one of like five other states that he's either leading or tied in to win.
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if obama loses nh and ia, but keeps nv, he needs to hold ohio, colorado, and wisconsin.
 
S

speculawyer

Member
Media is now trolling to make the horse-race look competitive.

Mitt Romney takes lead in projected electoral vote count
By Scott Bomboy | National Constitution Center – 1 hr 24 mins ago

Real Clear Politics now projects that Mitt Romney has more likely electoral votes than President Barack Obama, although Romney is well short of the 270 votes needed to win the election.

It is the first time since February that the website says Romney has more likely electoral votes than Obama.

. . . .

Based on its method of pulling together disparate polls, RCP projects a 294-244 win for Obama, if the voting was held today nationally and if it reflected recent consensus poll results. The victory would come from the Democrats taking Ohio, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Wisconsin and Virginia.
Click to expand...
http://news.yahoo.com/mitt-romney-takes-lead-projected-electoral-vote-count-133807291.html

Trolling for clicks. Don't click that link..
 
A

AniHawk

Member
Y2Kev said:
The state polling looked incredible yesterday. It's really just two polls that we're "worried" about. Both with Obama only down 1.
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well just talking about today, really. we got the second poll that shows wisconsin in +2 or +1 in the last few days. not too encouraging. marist was extremely optimistic across the board, making me believe it was something of an outlier. the way their polling in iowa matched ppp's is encouraging though.
 
A

AniHawk

Member
Frank the Great said:
he wouldn't even need colorado in that scenario. NV+WI+OH gets him to 271 even without NH/IA/CO.

NV+WI+OH is a nice firewall for bams.
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oh you're right. on my 270, i had marked wisconsin as red.

obama would need ohio, colorado, and nevada, if wisconsin, iowa, and new hampshire went for romney.
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
Crisco said:
I'm telling you, Obama needs to hold a rally in SLC. Between the University of Utah, a large LGBT population, and hispanics, the crowd would be massive. It would be awesome optics in the middle of bright red country (yes, i really really want to attend an Obama rally damnit).
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How in the world would the optics of a big rally in a deep red state right before the election help him at all? Candidates don't do rallies for the optics. They do them because they get covered by the local news and local newspapers in the swing states. It's to dominate the media in the swin gstates.
 
C

Crisco

Banned
Cheebo said:
How in the world would the optics of a big rally in a deep red state right before the election help him at all? Candidates don't do rallies for the optics. They do them because they get covered by the local news and local newspapers in the swing states. It's to dominate the media in the swin gstates.
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Because I say it is!
 
A

AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
If I were Romney, I would focus my energy almost entirely in Iowa, NH, Colorado, and Nevada. If he wins those, he would win the race. Flood all volunteers to these areas to canvass suburbs and small towns. Ohio is a lost cause, Wisconsin is a lost cause. There is no reason to devote time to those states.
 
C

Cloudy

Banned
In hindsight, wouldn't it have been better for the Dems to have their convention in VA instead of NC? After all that, NC isn't even in play this cycle
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
AlteredBeast said:
There is a saying about the Tribune that goes around in many mormon families...
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Different Tribune, but Minnesota's paper the Star Tribune is often referred to as The Star and Sickle or Red Star Tribune.

Thanks to their heinous crime of endorsing Kerry and Obama for president, Klobuchar for Senate (who will win anything she ever runs for in MN with over 60% of the vote)... and republicans for everything else.
 
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