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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.

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that's kinda funny considering the state polling is now looking not-so-awesome suddenly.

i think if ppp polls ohio again, we'll find it more like +2 or +1 than +5 like last time.

Don't Diablo on us here, 2 negative poll results going against excellent results all day yesterday (not to mention the excellent NV results).

Some bad things will get mixed in, just keep an eye on the aggregrates and trend lines. Even with PPP Iowa is moving in the right direction.
 

RDreamer

Member
The Romney/Ryan signs are really exploding around here. I just went to grab a pizza from the grocery store just a few blocks away. On that single road there were 9 Romney/Ryan signs (well, 7 and one "Who stole my Romney/Ryan" sign). Only 2 Obama/Biden ones (that's counting mine)
 

Tamanon

Banned
In hindsight, wouldn't it have been better for the Dems to have their convention in VA instead of NC? After all that, NC isn't even in play this cycle

NC was in play, and Virginia is more blue anyways.

Plus, as a NC guy, I wouldn't quite give up on us yet.
 

AniHawk

Member
Bad news for you know who.

220px-James_Carville_1.jpg
 

AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
The Romney/Ryan signs are really exploding around here. I just went to grab a pizza from the grocery store just a few blocks away. On that single road there were 9 Romney/Ryan signs (well, 7 and one "Who stole my Romney/Ryan" sign). Only 2 Obama/Biden ones (that's counting mine)

You are still in Wisconsin, right? I just think that is not really possible that Romney wins that state. They really should not waste their time.
 
You say that like I should obviously know what comes next, but I just don't.

If I were Romney, I would focus my energy almost entirely in Iowa, NH, Colorado, and Nevada. If he wins those, he would win the race. Flood all volunteers to these areas to canvass suburbs and small towns. Ohio is a lost cause, Wisconsin is a lost cause. There is no reason to devote time to those states.

Romney not devoting anything to those states will have a bigger negative impact in the media than him devoting a little bit.

It would signal his defeat.
 
If I were Romney, I would focus my energy almost entirely in Iowa, NH, Colorado, and Nevada. If he wins those, he would win the race. Flood all volunteers to these areas to canvass suburbs and small towns. Ohio is a lost cause, Wisconsin is a lost cause. There is no reason to devote time to those states.
Iowa and NH are trending huge to Romney so I disagree there. I don't think Romney needs to do much further in those two States. Colorado and Nevada need more help, but imo, Ohio is still up for grabs.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
well just talking about today, really. we got the second poll that shows wisconsin in +2 or +1 in the last few days. not too encouraging. marist was extremely optimistic across the board, making me believe it was something of an outlier. the way their polling in iowa matched ppp's is encouraging though.
Wasn't it assmussen? That's like +5
 

RDreamer

Member
You are still in Wisconsin, right? I just think that is not really possible that Romney wins that state. They really should not waste their time.

Yeah, still in Wisconsin. I'm definitely not trying to extrapolate what I see on the roads here to the entire state, lol. This state truly is carried by Milwaukee and especially Madison. Everywhere else is always pretty Republican. Now I live in the most Republican district in the entire state, and near one of the richest parts in the entire state.

Things seemed pretty unenthusiastic for Mitt for a while, though. There weren't nearly as many signs for him as there were for Walker. Not even close. Until after that first debate.
 

pigeon

Banned
Iowa and NH are trending huge to Romney so I disagree there. I don't think Romney needs to do much further in those two States. Colorado and Nevada need more help, but imo, Ohio is still up for grabs.

New Hampshire actually looks lousy in the polls for Obama but 538 thinks that it will break to the left. Iowa's polls are solidly in line with a 2-3 point Obama lead.
 

GashPrex

NeoGaf-Gold™ Member
The arguing over tea leaves, ie, polls that are in most cases, within the margin of error for both candidates, is pretty amazing. There so many unknown factors that all the polls tell you is "its really close."
 

AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
Iowa and NH are trending huge to Romney so I disagree there. I don't think Romney needs to do much further in those two States. Colorado and Nevada need more help, but imo, Ohio is still up for grabs.

I can see your point on NH trending for Romney right now (he lives there, right? Maybe that is giving him a boost), but I havent seen anything overly positive for Iowa right now. Ohio is damn near a lost cause. Maybe he should put some pressure on getting that Maine electoral vote. There was a huge Ron Paul contingency up there, though, and they are probably still sore that he stole the primary...
 
What are your thoughts on ohio?

Honestly, I don't believe it's the lock some argue it is...but at the same time the early voting looks very good for Obama. Also it'll get even better in the three days before the election. The sec of state has restricted some of the hours, but the Sunday before the election will still have early voting from 1PM-5PM. That's enough time for a lot of people to vote after church, or after football. While the sec of state is a dick, there really is no excuse for people to not vote during that weekend or through absentee
 
I can see your point on NH trending for Romney right now (he lives there, right? Maybe that is giving him a boost), but I havent seen anything overly positive for Iowa right now. Ohio is damn near a lost cause. Maybe he should put some pressure on getting that Maine electoral vote. There was a huge Ron Paul contingency up there, though, and they are probably still sore that he stole the primary...
I just saw the PPP polls on both States and it's getting really close with a slight edge to Romney in both. Obama dropped 9 pts in one month in those States. https://twitter.com/ppppolls
There's a big momentum shift and it's really surprising to me. I never thought it would come down to this. That debate....

Isn't that because you're saying that denying money to a soup kitchen is a good thing?
I didn't mean it like that. I'm not a heartless bastard. I DO think the guy running it overreacted though and I'm not surprised by the reaction.

Bulbo's no Kosmo. Bulbo has self-awareness and a sense of humor.
Thanks, man.
 
I read a blurb where the Romney camp was saying that Iowa was a lot closer than the NBC/WSJ/Marist polls indicate. I'm thinking that means O is up 2-3.
 

gcubed

Member
I wish PA had in person early voting so I could just take care of it now. I think it would help with the nervous energy building up.

i wish every state had early voting, then you can remove the need to have election day be a holiday. You don't necessarily need a month of it, but even a week through a weekend.
 

apana

Member
I think it really will be about 50-50 come election day and Ohio will be very close in Obama's direction. If Romney starts reaching towards 51 then he will find some way to get to the 270 number. I blame Obama for blowing his lead with those bad debates but lets face it, his lead had to be very soft to begin with it if that debate shifted things so dramatically.
 
i wish every state had early voting, then you can remove the need to have election day be a holiday. You don't necessarily need a month of it, but even a week through a weekend.

The last weekend before the election is the crucial one and that is the one they've been trying so hard to eliminate (for obvious reasons).
 
When President Kennedy, Reagan, Clinton, and George W. Bush cut tax rates, taxpayer dollars flowing into the U.S. Treasury actually grew. Why? Because cutting taxes spurred economic growth and job creation. It increased America’s overall wealth as "[r]ising income more than offset the decline in income tax rates as far as federal revenue was concerned," New York University economist Richard Sylla said. In addition, cutting tax rates significantly reduced government deficits, to the surprise of naysayers. LIKE this if think that President Obama needs to cut taxes, not raise them, to help America’s economy grow and create more jobs.

The Cognitive dissonance...my god. This is why I need to stay away from social networking.
 
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