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[Forever]

Seeing Carville again reminds me, what happened to Terry McAuliffe? He was endlessly entertaining as a Hillary surrogate in 2008.

 

[mckmas8808]

Media is now trolling to make the horse-race look competitive.


http://news.yahoo.com/mitt-romney-takes-lead-projected-electoral-vote-count-133807291.html

Trolling for clicks. Don't click that link..

It says that Wisconsin, Ohio, and Pennsylvania are neutral. Whereas they gave Romney North Carolina.

Why? The polls do not show this.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Seeing Carville again reminds me, what happened to Terry McAuliffe? He was endlessly entertaining as a Hillary surrogate in 2008.

Running for governor of Virginia again. Apparently Mark Warner is itching to get out of the senate, and might run too.

 

[Link Man]

Posted yet?

The Onion Hands Out Their Presidential Endorsement

 

[Half and half]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...ads-by-1-point-in-iowa-and-new-hampshire.html

That's just one poll. I don't personally believe that Obama is actually up the 8 points the NBC/WSJ poll indicates either.

 

[hydragonwarrior]

I thought we liked the PPP polls here. Just trying to fit in. Some guy wants to kill me over in OT, so I'm hiding out here for a while.

Probably Atal.

 

[Forever]

Running for governor of Virginia again. Apparently Mark Warner is itching to get out of the senate, and might run too.

I still remember him in his Hawaiian shirt after the primaries claiming he was going off on vacation for the rest of the election or something, funny guy.

 

[Cheebo]

Running for governor of Virginia again. Apparently Mark Warner is itching to get out of the senate, and might run too.

I think Warner wants to run for president in 2016.

 

[AniHawk]

Wasn't it assmussen? That's like +5

oh

oh you're right.

looking back at their previous ones:

+2o oct 9 (height of romneyrama)
+3o sep 17 (during obama high)
+1r aug 15 (because lol rasmussen)

so it's actually showing it steady over the last month, with some movement towards obama in the longterm. that's encouraging, even if the exact numbers themselves aren't.

 

[Loudninja]

Posted yet?

The Onion Hands Out Their Presidential Endorsement

Haha

 

[Triggafinga]

Binders full of women music video by tribe called Romney . its entertaining lol

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=HPdELBVdQc8

 

[CaptainSchwann]

Binders full of women music video by tribe called Romney . its entertaining lol

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=HPdELBVdQc8

"Bitch I'm an etch a sketch"

LOST IT LOL

 

[Frank the Great]

Too bad the GOP is anti-science. :/

someone should tell them that economics is not a science. maybe then they would not hate it so much.

 

[Bulbo Urethral Baggins]

That's just one poll. I don't personally believe that Obama is actually up the 8 points the NBC/WSJ poll indicates either.

It's just too damn close all around. It's kind of amazing how evenly divided this country is.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Honestly, I don't believe it's the lock some argue it is...but at the same time the early voting looks very good for Obama. Also it'll get even better in the three days before the election. The sec of state has restricted some of the hours, but the Sunday before the election will still have early voting from 1PM-5PM. That's enough time for a lot of people to vote after church, or after football. While the sec of state is a dick, there really is no excuse for people to not vote during that weekend or through absentee

Good news for Romney!

 

[gcubed]

It's just too damn close all around. It's kind of amazing how evenly divided this country is.

well when you have 2 sub-par choices its going to be close. Gore/Bush, Kerry/Bush same thing. Obama 1 was enthusiasm fueled.

 

[littleworm]

In hindsight, wouldn't it have been better for the Dems to have their convention in VA instead of NC? After all that, NC isn't even in play this cycle

Not calling you out, just the sentiment in general, I would laugh my ass of if Obama takes NC. Something which I still think he can do.

 

[codhand]

Gallup is late, dont blame me.

 

[PhoenixDark]

I think Warner wants to run for president in 2016.

I'd imagine he'd be campaigning for Obama more if he planned to run for president.

Warner (D) has been coy about any plans to run for governor, a post he held from 2002 to 2006. But he would start with a much stronger base of support than fellow Democrat Terry McAuliffe or Republicans Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling and Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli II, the poll finds.

Nearly three in 10 registered voters say they would definitely vote for Warner, and 22 percent would rule him out. Those numbers are starkly different from those of the three other hopefuls tested in the poll: McAuliffe (7 percent definitely for, 28 percent definitely against), Cuccinelli (12 percent for, 41 percent against) and Bolling (7 percent for, 30 percent against).

The results suggest that there is still room for Warner — or perhaps someone else — to step in and walk away with the race, despite the unusually early start that Republicans got on it.

Warner did nothing to snuff out talk of a comeback this month as he expressed frustration with his current job in an interview with The Washington Post. Asked whether he would quell rumors that he might run for governor, Warner said: “I’m not going to quell anything.”

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local...285fb8-03fd-11e2-9b24-ff730c7f6312_story.html

McAuliffe was completely rejected last time he ran, I don't see that changing if he faces an even better opponent in Warner. The biggest problem with Warner running for governor is that it would open up his seat for republicans to take.

 

[somedevil]

That's just one poll. I don't personally believe that Obama is actually up the 8 points the NBC/WSJ poll indicates either.

The difference between the polls is that the NBC has a D+2 sample while the PPP has a R+4 sample.

 

[Cloudy]

Gallup is late, dont blame me.

Republicans are liars

 

[XenodudeX]

Didn't Romney pull his NC resources? Seems like pretty strong evidence he has it locked down.

I remember McCain pulling his resources from Indiana as well. Who won that state?

 

[AlteredBeast]

Early voting is probably the only reason that Obama wins this thing, as it looks now. If it were relegated just to day-of voting, with ID in hand, Romney could probably take Ohio, Iowa, Colorado and NV. This is the main reason why ground game matters. Obama's people have been out passing out registration forms for months, getting people aware enough to send in for absentee ballots. Telling them where their polling place is, etc.

Romney is outmatched on people by far.

 

[AlteredBeast]

I remember McCain pulling his resources from Indiana as well. Who won that state?

I think McCain did it out of desperation. Romney is doing it by the swag of it all. /kosmo (truth?)

 

[Black Republican]

ORC/CNN Poll Florida Oct 17-18

Romney 49% Obama 48%


Obama 47% / Romney 48% / Johnson 2% / Goode 1% / Stein 0%

 

[Forever]

I don't believe Obama ever intended to take North Carolina, they contested it to tie up Romney's resources.

Ohio, Iowa, Nevada, Wisconsin is the firewall. Ohio being the most important part.

 

[Loudninja]

ORC/CNN Poll Florida

Romney 49% Obama 48%

Yeah what I thought.

 

[gcubed]

ORC/CNN Poll Florida

Romney 49% Obama 48%

for a state that averages almost even on most polls its getting ignored

 

[GhaleonEB]

Didn't Romney pull his NC resources? Seems like pretty strong evidence he has it locked down.

I think it could be an indication that they realize that they need to focus their resources elsewhere. They may hope to have it locked down, but winning NC won't get Romney the White House; so it makes sense to shift some/all of those resources to the states he must flip to do so (IA, CO, OH, PA, etc.).

 

[Cloudy]

Not calling you out, just the sentiment in general, I would laugh my ass of if Obama takes NC. Something which I still think he can do.

Eh, they really pissed Labor off by having the convention there and if he loses NC, it wasn't worth it. VA is also a RTW state but a convention boost there seems like it could have made a difference. It's all hindsight though...

 

[Loudninja]

for a state that averages almost even on most polls its getting ignored

Obama ground games seems to be really aggressive in the state.

 

[XenodudeX]

Florida sucks

 

[Y2Kev]

Does FL have early voting?

 

[Loudninja]

nvm

 

[Souldriver]

That this election still isn't locked up, frustrates me to no end. Still so many wildcards and scenarios possible. Bah!

 

[Loudninja]

Florida sucks

Its 1 point.

 

[gcubed]

Does FL have early voting?

yeah, 8 days only... after Rick Scott's cuts to the length were upheld. Oct 27th-Nov 3rd

 

[XenodudeX]

Does FL have early voting?

Yeah. 8 Days before the election.

Its 1 point.

It still sucks.

 

[Downhome]

That this election still isn't locked up, frustrates me to no end. Still so many wildcards and scenarios possible. Bah!

Regardless of who I'm for, I love when it is this close and keeps you guessing all the way through election night. LOVE IT.

 

[Forever]

That this election still isn't locked up, frustrates me to no end. Still so many wildcards and scenarios possible. Bah!

It's going to be close enough that I doubt anyone can call it locked up until election day.

I do expect us to have the advantage though.

 

[Loudninja]

yeah, 8 days only... after Rick Scott's cuts to the length were upheld. Oct 27th-Nov 3rd

Thats why democrats are more aggressive in absentee voting.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Early voting is probably the only reason that Obama wins this thing, as it looks now. If it were relegated just to day-of voting, with ID in hand, Romney could probably take Ohio, Iowa, Colorado and NV. This is the main reason why ground game matters. Obama's people have been out passing out registration forms for months, getting people aware enough to send in for absentee ballots. Telling them where their polling place is, etc.

Romney is outmatched on people by far.

Agreed, and another reason the GOP won't die any time due to demographics. The 2010 gains should persist through this election, meaning we'll get more suppression laws. OFA has done an amazing job sidestepping them with early voting/absentee, and I'd imagine republican legislators will target those next.

Let's assume Obama wins. It's rather unlikely that the 2016 nominee will electrify the base as much as him, assuming Hillary doesn't run. A less enthused base is not going to blow the GOP out the water in terms of GOTV activities. Likewise, a less popular democrat candidate could very likely raise less money than his republican challenger; if Mitt freaking Romney can raise more than a half billion dollars thanks to Citizen's United, any republican can. I'm not saying dems will be outmatched like McCain in 2008, but they'll be the clear underdog financially without a major candidate.

In short, if dems nominate another Al Gore they could easily be in trouble. Obama is literally blowing every GOTV model out the water, that's not a given - it requires a certain candidate to inspire people enough to pull that shit off.

 

[ViperVisor]

Speaking of Carville I was just reminded of this blast from the past:

 

[Aaron Strife]

Hm... 1 point advantage for Romney you say?

Probably a lost cause along with North Carolina, Virginia, and Colorado. Bad news for Obama.

 

[Frank the Great]

Didn't Romney pull his NC resources? Seems like pretty strong evidence he has it locked down.

could be . . . or it could be a recognition that if he has any prayer of winning, he can't be playing defense in states obama doesn't even need to win two weeks before the election.

 

[Cheebo]

I'd imagine he'd be campaigning for Obama more if he planned to run for president.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local...285fb8-03fd-11e2-9b24-ff730c7f6312_story.html

McAuliffe was completely rejected last time he ran, I don't see that changing if he faces an even better opponent in Warner. The biggest problem with Warner running for governor is that it would open up his seat for republicans to take.

Cuomo isn't campaigning and he is running. Schweitzer really isn't out there at all either tier than the DNC. Pretty much only one is O'malley. So I don't think that is indicative of anything.

 

[Incognito]

let's survey some facts now. while biden will be campaigning in minnesota, yes that minnesota, paul ryan will be holding a campaign rally outside pittsburgh. and i don't have to tell you what state that's in. pretty strong position for the RR ticket...

 

[Black Republican]

Republicans are liars

Tie.

 

[Aaron Strife]

let's survey some facts now. while biden will be campaigning in minnesota, yes that minnesota, paul ryan will be holding a campaign rally outside pittsburgh. and i don't have to tell you what state that's in. pretty strong position for the RR ticket...

*Jill Biden.

 

[CaptainSchwann]

Remember when John McCain/Sarah Palin spent time campaigning in PA this close to the election?