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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.

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F

Forever

Banned
Seeing Carville again reminds me, what happened to Terry McAuliffe? He was endlessly entertaining as a Hillary surrogate in 2008.
 
F

Forever

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
Running for governor of Virginia again. Apparently Mark Warner is itching to get out of the senate, and might run too.
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I still remember him in his Hawaiian shirt after the primaries claiming he was going off on vacation for the rest of the election or something, funny guy.
 
A

AniHawk

Member
Y2Kev said:
Wasn't it assmussen? That's like +5
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oh

oh you're right.

looking back at their previous ones:

+2o oct 9 (height of romneyrama)
+3o sep 17 (during obama high)
+1r aug 15 (because lol rasmussen)

so it's actually showing it steady over the last month, with some movement towards obama in the longterm. that's encouraging, even if the exact numbers themselves aren't.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
Honestly, I don't believe it's the lock some argue it is...but at the same time the early voting looks very good for Obama. Also it'll get even better in the three days before the election. The sec of state has restricted some of the hours, but the Sunday before the election will still have early voting from 1PM-5PM. That's enough time for a lot of people to vote after church, or after football. While the sec of state is a dick, there really is no excuse for people to not vote during that weekend or through absentee
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Good news for Romney!
 
L

littleworm

Member
Cloudy said:
In hindsight, wouldn't it have been better for the Dems to have their convention in VA instead of NC? After all that, NC isn't even in play this cycle
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Not calling you out, just the sentiment in general, I would laugh my ass of if Obama takes NC. Something which I still think he can do.
 
C

codhand

Member
klxo9mf52u63u59jacq35q.gif


Gallup is late, dont blame me.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Cheebo said:
I think Warner wants to run for president in 2016.
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I'd imagine he'd be campaigning for Obama more if he planned to run for president.
Warner (D) has been coy about any plans to run for governor, a post he held from 2002 to 2006. But he would start with a much stronger base of support than fellow Democrat Terry McAuliffe or Republicans Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling and Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli II, the poll finds.

Nearly three in 10 registered voters say they would definitely vote for Warner, and 22 percent would rule him out. Those numbers are starkly different from those of the three other hopefuls tested in the poll: McAuliffe (7 percent definitely for, 28 percent definitely against), Cuccinelli (12 percent for, 41 percent against) and Bolling (7 percent for, 30 percent against).

The results suggest that there is still room for Warner — or perhaps someone else — to step in and walk away with the race, despite the unusually early start that Republicans got on it.

Warner did nothing to snuff out talk of a comeback this month as he expressed frustration with his current job in an interview with The Washington Post. Asked whether he would quell rumors that he might run for governor, Warner said: “I’m not going to quell anything.”
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http://www.washingtonpost.com/local...285fb8-03fd-11e2-9b24-ff730c7f6312_story.html

McAuliffe was completely rejected last time he ran, I don't see that changing if he faces an even better opponent in Warner. The biggest problem with Warner running for governor is that it would open up his seat for republicans to take.
 
A

AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
Early voting is probably the only reason that Obama wins this thing, as it looks now. If it were relegated just to day-of voting, with ID in hand, Romney could probably take Ohio, Iowa, Colorado and NV. This is the main reason why ground game matters. Obama's people have been out passing out registration forms for months, getting people aware enough to send in for absentee ballots. Telling them where their polling place is, etc.

Romney is outmatched on people by far.
 
F

Forever

Banned
I don't believe Obama ever intended to take North Carolina, they contested it to tie up Romney's resources.

Ohio, Iowa, Nevada, Wisconsin is the firewall. Ohio being the most important part.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Cyan said:
Didn't Romney pull his NC resources? Seems like pretty strong evidence he has it locked down.
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I think it could be an indication that they realize that they need to focus their resources elsewhere. They may hope to have it locked down, but winning NC won't get Romney the White House; so it makes sense to shift some/all of those resources to the states he must flip to do so (IA, CO, OH, PA, etc.).
 
C

Cloudy

Banned
littleworm said:
Not calling you out, just the sentiment in general, I would laugh my ass of if Obama takes NC. Something which I still think he can do.
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Eh, they really pissed Labor off by having the convention there and if he loses NC, it wasn't worth it. VA is also a RTW state but a convention boost there seems like it could have made a difference. It's all hindsight though...
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
AlteredBeast said:
Early voting is probably the only reason that Obama wins this thing, as it looks now. If it were relegated just to day-of voting, with ID in hand, Romney could probably take Ohio, Iowa, Colorado and NV. This is the main reason why ground game matters. Obama's people have been out passing out registration forms for months, getting people aware enough to send in for absentee ballots. Telling them where their polling place is, etc.

Romney is outmatched on people by far.
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Agreed, and another reason the GOP won't die any time due to demographics. The 2010 gains should persist through this election, meaning we'll get more suppression laws. OFA has done an amazing job sidestepping them with early voting/absentee, and I'd imagine republican legislators will target those next.

Let's assume Obama wins. It's rather unlikely that the 2016 nominee will electrify the base as much as him, assuming Hillary doesn't run. A less enthused base is not going to blow the GOP out the water in terms of GOTV activities. Likewise, a less popular democrat candidate could very likely raise less money than his republican challenger; if Mitt freaking Romney can raise more than a half billion dollars thanks to Citizen's United, any republican can. I'm not saying dems will be outmatched like McCain in 2008, but they'll be the clear underdog financially without a major candidate.

In short, if dems nominate another Al Gore they could easily be in trouble. Obama is literally blowing every GOTV model out the water, that's not a given - it requires a certain candidate to inspire people enough to pull that shit off.
 
F

Frank the Great

Banned
Cyan said:
Didn't Romney pull his NC resources? Seems like pretty strong evidence he has it locked down.
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could be . . . or it could be a recognition that if he has any prayer of winning, he can't be playing defense in states obama doesn't even need to win two weeks before the election.
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
I'd imagine he'd be campaigning for Obama more if he planned to run for president.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local...285fb8-03fd-11e2-9b24-ff730c7f6312_story.html

McAuliffe was completely rejected last time he ran, I don't see that changing if he faces an even better opponent in Warner. The biggest problem with Warner running for governor is that it would open up his seat for republicans to take.
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Cuomo isn't campaigning and he is running. Schweitzer really isn't out there at all either tier than the DNC. Pretty much only one is O'malley. So I don't think that is indicative of anything.
 
I

Incognito

Troll
let's survey some facts now. while biden will be campaigning in minnesota, yes that minnesota, paul ryan will be holding a campaign rally outside pittsburgh. and i don't have to tell you what state that's in. pretty strong position for the RR ticket...
 
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