Amusingly, Nate Silver specifically noted that that Susquehanna poll is consistent with a 3-4 point lead for Obama in PA.
edit: Of course, as you can see below, there are always those who prefer fantasy to context.
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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.
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Amusingly, Nate Silver specifically noted that that Susquehanna poll is consistent with a 3-4 point lead for Obama in PA.
edit: Of course, as you can see below, there are always those who prefer fantasy to context.
Polls are swinging! Will be funny if they do and Obama loses.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Always bad. Never good.
Hobbestetrician
Member
I know what you mean. November 6th is taking forever to get here and, by extension, November 18th is taking even longer.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Someone should get a first month prediction on Wii U from Obama.
ppp has nh and ia +1 for romney
rasmussen has wisconsin +2 for obama (no change since their last poll a week ago)
ppp has obama +1 nationally
some place has obama +3 nationally
cnn has romney up +1 in florida
foxnews has romney up +3 in florida
foxnews has obama up +3 in ohio
i think that's it. ppp updates with another ohio poll tomorrow.
on the news side, romnesia became a thing. and generally speaking, the gop dun fucked up even more with regards to libya.
I think they might have the timeline mixed up.
But... weren't they rioting in Egypt before and/or during the "screw up" in Libya?
Aaron Strife
Banned
We're getting an update to the ppp tracker today. Supposedly better for bams
She realizes the riots started before that right? Right?
Officerrob
Banned
PPP is also updating their national tracking poll any moment now
Up to +2 indeed.
you're saying they knew libya would happen and just let it happen? that's unforgivable.
i'm itching for ohio to stay the same for obama tomorrow. anywhere between 3 and 5 points would be a good sign.
SpeedySwaf
Member
So that's PPP's national poll, right? Here's hoping it'll hold steady and isn't the result of a 2nd debate bump.
I realize Obama's leading in several states even before the 2nd debate, but more assurances are always nice.
I realize Obama's leading in several states even before the 2nd debate, but more assurances are always nice.
On the bright side: it's going to be a fantastic month.
everyone seems to be hanging around 2 points, which nate silver suggested sounded about right overall. i hope it stays the same. and i hope obama really dominates the foreign policy debate something fierce on monday. romnesia + a good 3rd debate should solidify romney as a joke for enough people.
Officerrob
Banned
Real Time is out of control tonight
I'm not sure. Her emphasis seemed to be on the state department intentionally causing riots in Pakistan by promoting knowledge of the video through commercials which "apologized" for it.
This is almost 9/11 Truther levels of crazy.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Pretty crappy state polls for Obama.
Don't move anywhere Ohio!
Don't move anywhere Ohio!
Hobbestetrician
Member
Just the majority of us. I do my part to buck the trend, at least.
Those aren't exactly great margins with Hispanics and African American voters. And yet he is still ahead.
Hopefully the Obama campaign gets all of the Halo players to vote early.
Would you prefer the bad polls he had after Debate 1
cartoon_soldier
Member
Hobbestetrician
Member
Haven't other polls shown Obama in the mid-60s with Hispanics and mid-90s with African Americans? I get that they aren't bad but I just thought he had been doing even better with those groups.
Officerrob
Banned
Both of the Republicans are pushing the "Romney is now winning Pennsylvania" bullcrap on the overtime portion of Real Time. They even quoted it in unison.
Is there really a difference between mid 60's and 60 or mid 90's and 85?? I mean it gets to the point where the number is so high it makes little difference
Hobbestetrician
Member
Well, it would increase his overall lead somewhat. Larger margins and more votes is a good thing. I get that those margins are 'good enough' but why not want them better?
Manmademan
Member
well there was that one poll that gave Romney ZERO percent of the African American Vote...that would be like a 10 point gain
speculawyer
Member
Well that's just fucking awesome. The conspiracy theories the AM radio spews now don't even have to be self-consistent and people still buy them. Pretty soon we'll be hearing the Obama isn't from Kenya, but he is from South America and he has Hitler genes in him and that's why he hates Israel.
As a white man, I have to agree that my brethren are pretty awful.
PhoenixDark
Banned
I hope Obama really ties Romney to Bush's foreign policy, and puts a nail in the coffin of neoconservative cowboy-ism.
Manmademan
Member
don't give them any more ideas, please
Father_Brain
Banned
Obama:Muslims::Aquaman:fish
speculawyer
Member
White people, stop embarrassing me!
OK, I can understand people being greedy bastards . . . everyone does that. But most of them won't even benefit from it. But the science. How can they turn their backs on science! Ugh. I guess I'm just a geek.
Hey, I'm a white guy too.
Part of the problem is that we divide ourselves so much along the lines of gender and race that it's no wonder white men see the GOP as the party for them when the Democratic party is the party of everyone else. I'm not sure if I've seen an opinion poll broken down by something like personal wealth this entire cycle.
To be fair, my mom is like Sherlock Holmes if he had a terrible methodology and an irrational fear of liberals. It's possible that this is her own pet theory. I'm curious if similar ideas are floating around the rightwing world, though.
thecouncil
Banned
Still a thing? Didn't it just happen this afternoon?
Have you told her about all the goodies she would miss without Obamacare?
speculawyer
Member
More reason why they can't be in power . . . you can't make good policy if you don't have a decent grasp of reality.
It's actually old white guys that are the problem.
Well, the Republicans would be correct if they are arguing that increasing the deficit right now would not be a bad thing. Governments should increase their deficits in depressed economies. Of course, I doubt the Republicans are serious about implementing any sort of beneficial stimulus beyond military spending. I also think the cuts they propose would cause far greater harm than the limited good that would come from any deficit spending they would undertake.
It is pretty disturbing that Democrats are consistently wrong on this fact. I realize an accelerating recovery is predicted and appears to be underway, but we have a long way to go until we are back at full employment. I haven't looked at the projected trajectory of employment growth, but getting back to full employment (4 percent - arguably) just in time for the next election would not be a positive considering the country averages 8-10 years between recessions.
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