Father_Brain
Banned
...when was Hitokage demodded?
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.
- Thread starter Amir0x
- Start date
- Status
littleworm
Member
Ugh, I just want this to be over. All the stress is going to make my hair turn gray, and I'm only 20.
Killer day at work today (Friday), so I didn't get to review the polling numbers. Things seem to be all over the place. Hilarious.
Obama's lead in Ohio looks a bit narrower, but rather resilient. I'm still uber-confident.
New Hampshire is looking like a damn tough nut to crack. Neither candidate is able to pull away there, it seems. It's an important state - in non-Ohio Obama maps. The pattern/rate of candidate visits there may be revealing something about where each campaign thinks Ohio is.
Colorado is one that I've become strangely confident in.
And hot damn! Nevada is looking more and more similar to what Oregon was in the 1990s - contested by Republicans, up to a point. Then, the GOP candidate stops visiting so often - and everyone in the room starts to know damn well that the Democrats would take it on Election Day.
I pondered something a week or two ago: what if, after the Eastern and Central Time Zone's states are closed, the race comes down to whether Obama gets either Colorado or Nevada? While I'd rather a comfy win, it would be rather exciting.
Obama's lead in Ohio looks a bit narrower, but rather resilient. I'm still uber-confident.
New Hampshire is looking like a damn tough nut to crack. Neither candidate is able to pull away there, it seems. It's an important state - in non-Ohio Obama maps. The pattern/rate of candidate visits there may be revealing something about where each campaign thinks Ohio is.
Colorado is one that I've become strangely confident in.
And hot damn! Nevada is looking more and more similar to what Oregon was in the 1990s - contested by Republicans, up to a point. Then, the GOP candidate stops visiting so often - and everyone in the room starts to know damn well that the Democrats would take it on Election Day.
I pondered something a week or two ago: what if, after the Eastern and Central Time Zone's states are closed, the race comes down to whether Obama gets either Colorado or Nevada? While I'd rather a comfy win, it would be rather exciting.
Aaron Strife
Banned
They show some wonky shit sometimes but generally they're pretty good.So now survey USA polls are fine?
If you see a poll like, Romney up 10 in North Carolina and then you notice in the crosstabs they have him winning the black vote... well.
StopMakingSense
Member
Yes. That fateful day in the Fall of 2004, when John Kerry lost the election, and PhoenixDark became black.
I quit a week ago.
538 has Nevada at 72.9% chance going to Obama vs Iowa at 66.1% chance. With Ohio (70.7%), Wisconsin (79.2%), and Nevada (well and Pennsylvania, if you're still convinced that's a swing state), Obama's at 271. We should keep going after Iowa, but screw it- if we have Nevada, we have the race. The problem is, if Romney somehow gets Ohio (along with Fl, NC, and VA)- Obama has to run the table to win (NV, CO, NH, IA, WI).
Romney has no real shot outside of Ohio, requiring NV, CO, IA, NH, FL, VA, and NC (pretty much every other swing state).
That's probably what Romney's team sees and why they're pulling out of other states to go into Ohio. If they secure Ohio, they can even give up NC and have a decent shot of winning- requiring Colorado and then two out of Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire.
Ohio is 70.7% going to Obama (according to 538). It's THE key state. If you think Obama's going to win and you're in Intrade, It might be best to sell all your stock on Obama (currently at $6.19/share) and buy Ohio (got as low as $5 a share within the past day although currently sitting at $6.35) if it gets below Obama prices.
Romney has no real shot outside of Ohio, requiring NV, CO, IA, NH, FL, VA, and NC (pretty much every other swing state).
That's probably what Romney's team sees and why they're pulling out of other states to go into Ohio. If they secure Ohio, they can even give up NC and have a decent shot of winning- requiring Colorado and then two out of Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire.
Ohio is 70.7% going to Obama (according to 538). It's THE key state. If you think Obama's going to win and you're in Intrade, It might be best to sell all your stock on Obama (currently at $6.19/share) and buy Ohio (got as low as $5 a share within the past day although currently sitting at $6.35) if it gets below Obama prices.
New Hampshire is not in play and even if it were it wouldn't be important at all if Obama won Ohio.
It's only important in scenarios where Obama loses Ohio.
Aaron Strife
Banned
I would love nothing more than seeing Obama sweep the swing states. WI+NV+OH won't do good for much Facebook bragging.
It's still possible he might sweep everything but North Carolina.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Aww. Then I don't get to take any shots.
I'd like to see Obama get over 300 EVs personally. I don't know if it's happening though. That requires all the lean Obama swing states (NV, CO, IA, OH, NH, WI) plus at least one of NC, VA, or FL. If Obama somehow gets FL, it'd be 319 EVs. Virginia would be 303. Both would be 332. I would laugh my ass off if Obama got every "swing state" except for North Carolina. I'd probably lose half my facebook friends from gloating so hard.
Captain Pants
Killed by a goddamned Dredgeling
I grew up in a mega-Catholic rural Idaho family. I marched in pro-life rallies when I was in junior high because my mom forced me to. I think I voted for Bush back in 2000 because when you live in the middle of nowhere with limited internet access, you believe rumors that Al Gore wants to turn most of your state into a national wildlife preserve, and other lunacies. Getting out of the house and living on my own helped me shed my super conservative roots. I was atheist, but still wired like a Catholic. Moving to Boise has done me a lot of good. I know it isn't some huge and diverse urban setting, but it is a far cry from living in the middle of nowhere and being very isolated from anything but the opinions extreme conservatives. I love my family, and I love where I grew up, but I'm glad to have distanced myself from my upbringing.
Aaron Strife
Banned
When I posted my map on facebook I had some less-politically-inclined friends tell me I was off because Iowa and Florida were safe states for Romney, telling me I should visit there sometime because they're full of Republicans and that they didn't believe the polls.
We'll see who's yucking it up on election day. I had it 332-206.
cartoon_soldier
Member
PPP OH poll will be very important.
It's crazy, I think the polls in 2008 were more consistent and we had a lot more regular pollster polls too I think.
The worst part about VA is NO Early Voting without an excuse.
It's crazy, I think the polls in 2008 were more consistent and we had a lot more regular pollster polls too I think.
The worst part about VA is NO Early Voting without an excuse.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Hence why Virginia and Colorado are so important imo. They're the ultimate insurance against anything going crazy.
Welp.. CO is looking like great "crazy WI" insurance right now. But I'm greedy - I want both!
Dominican Power
Member
Should of moved to LA if you wanted that drastic oomph.
speculawyer
Member
It is just getting so hard for Mitt to win. If Obama wins NV, CO, Iowa, and NH then Obama can lose all the big swing states (OH, VA, and FL) but still win.
The science/math is looking really bad for Mitt yet so many of his supporters are completely confident that he's got it in the bag. Their tears will be extra salty because of being so anti-science/math.
The science/math is looking really bad for Mitt yet so many of his supporters are completely confident that he's got it in the bag. Their tears will be extra salty because of being so anti-science/math.
i don't see the needle moving in romney's camp. has anyone actually been there at all? it seems like it's been conceded a long time ago. of all the polling that's been done, the closest romney was able to come to a lead was a tie, and that was rasmussen, right after the first debate- and since then, they've shown movement toward obama.
colorado's still up in the air, but it's more of a slight obama lead now. recent polling suggests they're more affected by swings in the race than nevada is. i'd like a few more polls to come out for obama before i'd feel comfortable about it... but it's looking good-ish now.
new hampshire is recently all over the place, and since romney's buying ad space to air in the state, they seem to think they have a shot at winning it. this could be for them what colorado is for obama.
virginia seems like it switched hard for romney after the last debate too. most polls in the middle of the month give him a shot at winning, but obama also had a pretty comfy lead in the middle of september. if obama can get a general win nationwide, he'll probably eke out a win there. i'd like to see some more polling out of there for next week.
i guess iowa in general looks okay, but polling and movement is all over the place. some polls show massive movement for romney, others show movement for obama, and others are showing a tie. would also be nice to get more polling out of here.
it's probably time to wrap it up on florida. it's kind of a nice pipe dream, but even the survey usa poll shows movement from their last one.
and then ohio, which has rarely show a lead for romney or a tie, and has about a 2-point lead for obama on average in the last week for likely voters. it has tightened from where it was in september, but at least it's consistent and not all over the place like iowa.
so basically:
confident in
nevada
optimistic about
ohio
colorado
iffy on
iowa
new hampshire
hopeful for
virginia
it's a lost cause
florida
I am from a hometown filled with people like that. Unfortunately they don't know any better. Everyone just wants to go with the flow and ignorance is pretty much encouraged there. Oh yeah and the churches... the churches are terrible. They'd rather follow their political agendas than anything else. "Don't give to the government, but give to us so we can build mega churches with stadium seats, 1000 car parking lots, huge statues, etc." Anecdotal evidence gives me a headache. It's like playing blackjack with people who don't understand math.
yep and now they seem to be up for grabs. :\
Aaron Strife
Banned
The Iowa thing was funny to me because she kept pressing the point even though it was like, one of Obama's best states in the 2008 general election and his caucus win is probably the single reason he's president today.
I'm aware that my poll-scouring isn't representative of how most people look at politics, and I certainly don't judge anyone for that (I wouldn't mind taking a break from poll analysis for a year or so once this election is over). Just saying, your neighbors having Steve King signs doesn't make Iowa a safe state for Romney. Not even close.
Minnesota being not a swing state also increases the number of people here who don't realize which states are actually up for grabs. I've made comments to friends about how it doesn't really matter how we vote in this state for president because Obama's a lock for MN's electoral votes and it's come as a surprise to them.
PhoenixDark
Banned
The more I think about it, Colorado seems like the state that could be the nail in the coffin. Ohio, Florida, etc are going to probably be too close to call for much of the night on November 6th. If Hispanic voting tips Colorado to Obama before the bigger swing states are called...the election just might be over; in fact it will be over if NH goes to Obama
cartoon_soldier
Member
WI?
the only lead romney had there was in august. however if they're buying ad space in minnesota to convince wisconsinianites, then it might be concerning. i'm confident about it like i am with nevada (my only concern comes from it actually being considered a swing state when it normally isn't). if wisconsin goes to romney, it might be an indication other states will too.
Aaron Strife
Banned
By the way, here's what Charlie Cook says the campaigns are seeing in swing states
Funny that by Romney's polls they've still got Obama winning 284 electoral votes. And NC is ridiculously close either way but with a slight advantage for Mittens.
Also a huge gap in Iowa which I find interesting. Perhaps Obama is accounting for the early votes and Romney isn't? The gap's not as big in the other states.
The numbers worse for Obama are from Romney's camp and the numbers better for Obama are from Obama's camp, obviously.
Funny that by Romney's polls they've still got Obama winning 284 electoral votes. And NC is ridiculously close either way but with a slight advantage for Mittens.
Also a huge gap in Iowa which I find interesting. Perhaps Obama is accounting for the early votes and Romney isn't? The gap's not as big in the other states.
-_-
eBay Huckster
Member
rand's just trying to tell gallup "shh, you can un-fuck yourself up, there's still time"
kinda surprised at nh. maybe they're just seeing the movement and think they can snatch it away come election day.
iowa's interesting, because ppp and marist both had data that matched each other's. the early voting percentages, and where the support broke down were very close. marist's outlook of the rest of the race, gives romney a 15-point lead with election-day voters and ppp gives him a 20-point lead with election-day voters. marist's polls point to a 5-point obama win and ppp points to a 1-point romney win. obama really needs to get some momentum his way if ppp is more accurate than marist.
pretty much. the race is a 1 or 2 point lead for obama nationally right now. rand's getting closer to reflecting that, strictly speaking.
rand was an indicator for movement toward obama during the last week. my only concern is it's showing slight movement for romney instead now. it's probably the race just evening out in general.
PhoenixDark
Banned
So pretty much Obama leading everywhere except Florida, NC, and Virginia; I'd imagine the Romney camp acknowledges that a close Iowa race on election day will result in them losing due to early voting.
speculawyer
Member
yeah, in my non OH, VA, FL map for Obama, it is Colorado that is the only real iffy state for Obama. I think Ohio and CO are the real key states right now.
Places like NV & Iowa being pretty sure bets for Obama has really choked off the paths of victory for Romney. The GOP fucked those states up for themselves . . . NV has collapsed for the GOP due to scandals and crapping all over green energy (wind and ethanol) has probably really hurt Mitt's chances in Iowa.
Black Republican
Member
Mine
so basically:
confident in
nevada, Ohio, Iowa
optimistic about
colorado, NH
iffy on
FL
hopeful for
virginia,
it's a lost cause
NC
so basically:
confident in
nevada, Ohio, Iowa
optimistic about
colorado, NH
iffy on
FL
hopeful for
virginia,
it's a lost cause
NC
airmangataosenai
Member
If those internals are accurate, what the fuck are they doing having Ryan go to Pennsylvania this late in the game?
he forgot his keys?
PhoenixDark
Banned
Quick stop on the way to Ohio I guess
speculawyer
Member
Maybe they feel he is toxic so they are sending him to places that are a lost cause?
Either that or they are trying to win one difficult big state instead of several small ones (IA, NH, NV, etc.)
Aaron Strife
Banned
Basically. However I refuse to accept NC as being a lost cause. There is literally nothing that supports that. The polls have been tight and Obama is still playing heavily there.
If you take out Rasmussen on TPM's polltracker for both states (because fuck them), Romney's up by only less than a point in Virginia and North Carolina.
Many apologies, but can someone give me a brief summary of what exactly are the righties bitching about in regards to Libya?
From the debate, Romney (and most of the RWNM) seemed clear he was annoyed at the fact that Obama didn't use the word "terror". We know that's wrong, but I'm hearing that the REAL argument is that Obama (via Susan Rice) was blaming the riots on that stupid Islamophobic movie, when it was supposed to be something else? What was it exactly? And whatever it was, I'm still not sure what point they're trying to convey here.
From the debate, Romney (and most of the RWNM) seemed clear he was annoyed at the fact that Obama didn't use the word "terror". We know that's wrong, but I'm hearing that the REAL argument is that Obama (via Susan Rice) was blaming the riots on that stupid Islamophobic movie, when it was supposed to be something else? What was it exactly? And whatever it was, I'm still not sure what point they're trying to convey here.
the point is supposed to be, i think, that obama's weak on terror, and that his policies created instability in the region.
speculawyer
Member
I think you summed it up well. Yes, it is confusing and no one gives a shit.
It is like Fast & Furious . . . there is some convoluted and inaccurate right-wing narrative that no one outside of the right-wing media understands or cares about.
It is nothing but scandal manufacturing. Take some small mistake or bad communication and try to blow it up into something huge. But ultimately, most scandal manufacturing fails . . . think of the Clinton years. file-gate, travel-gate, whitewater, Vince Foster, etc. None of it ever stuck except the spooge that stuck to the blue dress.
Aaron Strife
Banned
I wonder how many half-people are voting in this poll
They basically want to paint the administration as trying to avoid using the word terror or admitting to a terrorist attack in a proactive effort to avoid people questioning the successes of the administrations foreign policy, anti terror efforts and national security. Essentially, they are accusing the administration of purposely lying/misleading for political reasons.
- Status