A pretty little chorus line of Ruth Bader Ginsburg clones, flooding the courts, genetically engineered to live to be at least 100 years old. It will be glorious, I tell you!
GLORIOUS.
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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.
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A pretty little chorus line of Ruth Bader Ginsburg clones, flooding the courts, genetically engineered to live to be at least 100 years old. It will be glorious, I tell you!
GLORIOUS.
The Librarian
Banned
Everyone saw this, right?
I'm not sure what else you could attribute it to after Obama had a comfortable lead for most of the election, a huge lead for a good part of it, that all went away after Romney had a good debate performance. If Romney wins, and it will be because of that, then yeah America is pretty fucking dumb.
Romney, a man who openly shat on half the country, will win because he looked at America in the eye and confidently and presidentially lied to their dumb fucking faces for a couple hours.
War Peaceman
You're a big guy.
Their electoral campaign has been embarrassing beyond belief. Not because of gaffes, but because of the dishonesty, flip-flopping and lack of clear strategy for the presidential term. They've lied and cheated. It isn't right.
RustyNails
Member
Yeah but Obama winning those important swing states by a whisker's margin will do little to soothe chicken littles.
Kevitivity
Member
That is far less childish than simply writing off the electorate (many of whom put Obama in office) as stupid.
and now the bad news about ppp's ohio poll:
previously it was 40-36-24. more democrats responded and the overall total went down.
-less self-identified as conservatives, sand more identified as moderates
-was 84-11-5 for races (white-black-other), now 80-13-7
-age remained mostly unchanged, except more people now break for the under 45 age range
-more women than men were polled this time (54-46 vs. 53-47)
-people thought obama won the debate 48-39
so basically what happened was, in general, all the demographics that might help out obama increased pretty nicely, and yet he went down by four points in a week. again though, this was roughly tied last week on friday, and somehow got a huge boost on saturday. so last saturday was probably an extreme outlier.
39-31-29 was the party breakdown in ohio in 2008
edit
the biggest difference between the two polls: on the 12-13, they polled 880 likely voters. for the 18-20, they polled 532
previously it was 40-36-24. more democrats responded and the overall total went down.
-less self-identified as conservatives, sand more identified as moderates
-was 84-11-5 for races (white-black-other), now 80-13-7
-age remained mostly unchanged, except more people now break for the under 45 age range
-more women than men were polled this time (54-46 vs. 53-47)
-people thought obama won the debate 48-39
so basically what happened was, in general, all the demographics that might help out obama increased pretty nicely, and yet he went down by four points in a week. again though, this was roughly tied last week on friday, and somehow got a huge boost on saturday. so last saturday was probably an extreme outlier.
39-31-29 was the party breakdown in ohio in 2008
edit
the biggest difference between the two polls: on the 12-13, they polled 880 likely voters. for the 18-20, they polled 532
Aaron Strife
Banned
But you're not a likely voter so your vote doesn't count.
Black Mamba
Member
Romney is an extension of W. Bush. People would vote Obama in a super landslide right now over W. Bush.
That is why the electorate is stupid, partly. I'm not being childish. I've always been of the belief that the people, as a whole, tend to be stupid.
In an informed electorate, romney and ryan would not have been allowed to get anywhere close to this point.
Those numbers might be somewhat comforting if we were a week or less away from the election. But Romney's been gaining and he's not slowing down much, so why wouldn't he go over those numbers?
Honestly sounds like noise...not to disregard or discount the poll, but it's weird that the sample would move towards Obama and yet he'd swing pretty heavily the other way. I CAN SAFELY DISCARD THIS POLL AND BREATHE INTO MY BAG WITH CONFIDENCE~
Well, the national polls actually show Romney receding a little.
Beer Monkey
Member
The county I work in, north of Cincinnati, refused to allow the media to watch them count the votes in 2004. They claimed a terrorist threat was called in.
Homeland Security was unable to verify the threat.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Ohio and Florida virtually tied, Obama up 2 in Virginia. Totally makes me feel better
Black Mamba
Member
Where did Romney make his gains, then? got a link?
Yeah that makes very little scene.
Is it surprising his position's not supported by the evidence? There's no evidence that the most positive campaigns enjoy the most electoral success. Rather, winning campaigns in close elections tend to be more negative.
Black Mamba
Member
If you need more proof the electorate is stupid, just look at how in some of the swing states the Dem Senate candidate is outperforming Obama by quite a bit.
YEAH WE WANT YOU IN OFFICE TO BE UNABLE TO FOLLOW THROUGH ON YOUR POLICIES. HERP DE DERP.
YEAH WE WANT YOU IN OFFICE TO BE UNABLE TO FOLLOW THROUGH ON YOUR POLICIES. HERP DE DERP.
Maybe they just want divided government.
PhoenixDark
Banned
I see no point in calling the electorate stupid; ultimately the issue lies with the campaign. Obama is virtually tied in Ohio with a guy who wanted to bankrupt the auto industry; likewise he's virtually tied with someone in Florida who wants to turn Medicare into a voucher.
The problem lies with the candidate and his party's poor messaging.
The problem lies with the candidate and his party's poor messaging.
Kevitivity
Member
Interesting. I feel the same way about BO. He's all "Hope and Change" and "bringing people together" with no substance or record.
And thats just it. There are smart people left, right, and center who feel that an informed electorate will see it their way. Welcome to politics.
Now, lets get back to how a candidate wins.
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Tied in Ohio? WTF
Tied in Florida, yes.
And yes the average electorate is lazy and/or stupid. They won't take 30 minutes to research the actual candidate positions, either because they are lazy, or incapable.
Yeah, Obama's failure with 65+ old white people is messaging. Come on, that's not the problem in Florida (Romney doesn't even plan to change Medicare for existing/soon-to-be recipients).
Stop using that acronym. It's insulting and trollish.
Obama leads 3-1 with early voters a week ago, 2-1 with early voters today. That's the swing. Note that the sample of early voters is about a hundred people.
To be fair, that's how he signs his own tweets, heh.
another point about the ppp polls:
oct18-20: 532 lvs
obama: 49
romney: 48
oct12-13: 880 lvs
obama: 51
romney: 46
sep27-30: 897 lvs
obama: 49
romney: 45
sep7-9: 1072 lvs
obama: 50
romney: 45
obama's been consistently averaged around 50 points. romney had some support for him shoot up, but it's possible the results aren't quite as solid due to the smaller sample size.
I lump any talk saying Obama hasn't shown any plan for the future right along with crap about him not having a record to run on. Pure BS. Listen to any stump speech or any ad on TV from him. What's worse about this is people like Chris Matthews repeating this crap. He of all people should know better.
DragonSworne
Banned
People just aren't willing to pick out the lies from the truths because it's easier to ignore everything all together.
When one side spews lies after lies, it drowns out the truth from the other side. People get fatigued and just ignore it all.
GAF doesn't have a character limit and kevitivity is doing it on purpose to irritate people.
DragonSworne
Banned
el retorno
Member
If the gop repeats it enough it becomes fact.
Indeed, if the tightening were from Obama dropping much below 50, I'd be a bit concerned.. but it's mainly been from Romney's gains.
This is what we've seen over the past week for Ohio:
SUSA - Obama +3
FOX News - Obama +3
Rasmussen - Obama +1
PPP - Obama +1
Gravis - Tie
Marist - Obama +6
CNN - Obama +4
Obama's still got Ohio.
Black Mamba
Member
Oh wow, only 532 likely voters? that's like 4.5 MoE. That's pretty big.
The last one was over 800 likely voters. The noise is going to be far greater in the new one.
Can't fix stupid.
Dude. People believe tax cuts will grow the economy. People belief it will reduce the deficit. They believe this. This despite Bush ran on this 12 years ago and argued that Gore was misleading the math on the tax cuts being for the wealthy (remember fuzzy math)? Gore was proven right, tax cuts created a massive deficit, and now Romney is running on the same thing. PEOPLE ARE STUPID.
Go re-watch the first Gore-Bush debate. On multiple things you could substitute Romney in and not tell the difference. Minus the fact that Bush came off more likable.
helped along by an inept media, of course.
Kevitivity
Member
If I can take the personal attacks, you kids can take a little joke about Obama.
Republicans are the party of creationists, climate deniers, poll unskewers, jobbers, and birthers. When it comes to smarts, I'll take my chances with the left, thanks.
The Librarian
Banned
Hm. I'm loving these poll breakdowns.
DragonSworne
Banned
And when people in the media repeat it, they never mention that Romney has no plan.
The omission makes it seem that Romney does have one when in fact he has no plan.
RustyNails
Member
Yup. I'm not worried about OH.
Last two weeks now, they better kick their GOTV effort into overdrive (if it is not already). I am expecting to see a deluge of early votes in the next two weeks. If they can get early votes to 33% of the electorate with Obama leading them 2:1, that is more than sufficient for the election day.
Mercury Fred
Banned
To be fair, every one of his posts is insulting and trollish.
Bulbo Urethral Baggins
Banned
This is just a really lazy argument--if you can even call it an argument. All you can come up with when a candidate loses is that the electorate is stupid? And when your candidate wins, are they suddenly intelligent again?
Maybe these stupid people feel duped by Obama's hope/n change bullshit and don't want to be fooled again. Or maybe they want to try someone/something different. Or maybe, just maybe, they're intelligent enough to understand that Obama's policies haven't brought this country back on it's feet again. You're asking people to stick with someone whose policies haven't noticeably improved their lives. That's asking a lot, especially considering his lackluster attitude and debate performance. There is no hope this time. There is no change. He's abandoned those slogans. There's no urgency in his message whatsoever. He just wants to proceed "forward" as if where we are going is positive or has any kind of certainty. Obama could be running against a fish and the fish would have a pretty damn good chance of winning. Trout.
The Librarian
Banned
How many likely voters did the fox poll have?
Black Mamba
Member
Very true.
But that's not what I meant when I asked the question. Earl voters aren't a demographic.
I mean, is Romney picking up gains among women? Blacks? hispanics? whites? men? Independents?
Where is the shift coming from. A change in early voting numbers doesn't really answer that.
1131
Kevitivity
Member
Nailed it.
SUSA - Obama +3 (613 lvs)
FOX News - Obama +3 (1131 lvs)
Rasmussen - Obama +1 (750 lvs)
PPP - Obama +1 (532 lvs)
Gravis - Tie (1943 lvs)
Marist - Obama +6 (994 lv)
CNN - Obama +4 (722 lv)
DragonSworne
Banned
Anyone worried this might be the first election of voter fraud given the push for voter suppression?
Black Mamba
Member
The electorate was stupid in 2008 when Obama won, too. But being in a huge recession led to them voting for Obama. The electorate is always stupid. Doesn't mean they're always wrong.
At the core of the "electorate is stupid" thing is that people blame Obama for things the obstructionist congress should've let Obama fix.
It's been said before: in the unlikely scenario Romney wins, it sets a dangerous precedent for a party that by simply saying NO to everything they can hamstring a president and turn him/her into a one-term president.
It's been said before: in the unlikely scenario Romney wins, it sets a dangerous precedent for a party that by simply saying NO to everything they can hamstring a president and turn him/her into a one-term president.
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