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[Y2Kev]

With the election so close it could just mean people are finally starting to make up their minds and after warming up to Mitt, decided to choose him.


way too close for comfort.

I'm starting to feel like I did in 2010. Really uncertain but things seem to be breaking slightly for the GOP at this point.

How could you possibly think this looks like 2010? Obama has a 65%+ chance of winning. Democrats had a 70% chance of getting their asses handed to them in 2010. Just be happy we're on this side of the coin.

 

[Loudninja]

Starting to?

Seriously he has been like that since forever.

At some point it has to stop.

 

[Diablos]

I think Obama's big problem is in the debates he really hasn't shown his vision for the next 4 years and it's making people apprehensive.

It might be too late now. He needed to hammer home in the 2nd debate his Jobs bill and Obamacare. He did well to show why Romney sucks but not enough to show why he's definitely better.

And people could very well start to think "maybe I should try something new."

Also, despite the Bush question, Obama should have made it a theme of the night that Romney is Bush and really pound on it. No mention that he has the same economic and foreign advisers at all.

Yep, Romney is running around the country saying "I actually have a plan, all Obama does is make fun of me!" Seems to be working to some extent.

 

[Link]

I think Obama's big problem is in the debates he really hasn't shown his vision for the next 4 years and it's making people apprehensive.

It might be too late now. He needed to hammer home in the 2nd debate his Jobs bill and Obamacare. He did well to show why Romney sucks but not enough to show why he's definitely better.

And people could very well start to think "maybe I should try something new."

Also, despite the Bush question, Obama should have made it a theme of the night that Romney is Bush and really pound on it. No mention that he has the same economic and foreign advisers at all.

But that's what's crazy, neither has Romney. Even less so, actually.

 

[Y2Kev]

I dont think its suprising that ohio would be trending towards romney given that the RR ticket have started to focus on pennsylvania. I bet they know the score

There are too many ways to interpret this. Tell me if you're serious or not, lol :\

But that's what's crazy, neither has Romney. Even less so, actually.

He doesn't have to. He's the "new" version.

 

[Aaron Strife]

I'm starting to feel like how I did in 2010 too.

 

[Diablos]

I dont think its suprising that ohio would be trending towards romney given that the RR ticket have started to focus on pennsylvania. I bet they know the score

Not sure if trolling.

I'm starting to feel like how I did in 2010 too.

Not sure if trolling.

 

[Forever]

There are too many ways to interpret this. Tell me if you're serious or not, lol :\

It's Incognito.

Not sure if trolling.

How on earth are you unsure?

 

[Slime]

Random bit of useless data from this week in 2008. Apparently Obama was up 18 points among early voters in Ohio, but also up 4 among those who hadn't voted yet.

 

[TacticalFox88]

How could you possibly think this looks like 2010? Obama has a 65%+ chance of winning. Democrats had a 70% chance of getting their asses handed to them in 2010. Just be happy we're on this side of the coin.

That night in 2010 was so depressing it hurt.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

I wasn't alive in 1984 but I'm feeling like this is gonna be a Reagan landslide. Only Minnesota is safe.

 

[786110]

We are all gonna die

 

[Link]

He doesn't have to. He's the "new" version.

People would be wise to remember the phrase "The devil you know..."

 

[Hobbestetrician]

Sure, let's worry about one poll (that still shows a lead).

 

[bananas]

With the election so close it could just mean people are finally starting to make up their minds and after warming up to Mitt, decided to choose him.


way too close for comfort.

I'm starting to feel like I did in 2010. Really uncertain but things seem to be breaking slightly for the GOP at this point.

 

[Y2Kev]

Random bit of useless data from this week in 2008. Apparently Obama was up 18 points among early voters in Ohio, but also up 4 among those who hadn't voted yet.

It's Survey USA, so different pollster, but it doesn't say if it's RV or LV. Obama is up 3 in SUSA's most recent poll, so more than PPP has.

Actually, wouldn't the "LV" of an early voter be 100%?

 

[Loudninja]

'I Feel Your Pain,' Romney Tells Campaign Rally Attendees Who Make $20 Million A Year

As he continues to tout his plan to fix the economy and “make things right,” presidential nominee Mitt Romney delivered a heartfelt address to wealthy rally attendees Monday, telling those who make more than $20 million per year that he “feels [their] pain” and can relate to their struggles.

“Look, I’m out there fighting for you every day, because I know what it’s like to grow up with everything, spend your whole life in the same socioeconomic class, and struggle constantly to find new ways to keep your obscene wealth out of the hands of tax collectors,” the former Bain Capital CEO said in the emotionally charged speech, adding that he was “not just reading some talking points” about being in the top 0.01 percent of earners, but had been there “many times” himself. “Ann and I, we too come from wealth. We know what it’s like to come home at Christmastime with an annual bonus of 10 or 15 million dollars and then have the federal government say, ‘Wait a minute, buddy, we’re going to need 13, maybe 14 percent of that.’ And all of a sudden, that 15 million bonus becomes 13 million. We believe no American family should ever have to go through that.”

Romney added that if it weren’t for the Bush-era tax cuts that lowered taxes for thousands of wealthy families, “God only knows” where he might have ended up.

http://www.theonion.com/articles/i-feel-your-pain-romney-tells-campaign-rally-atten,29929/

 

[AniHawk]

Is PPP still doing R+4 party ID turnout? because 49-42 lead with indies does not reflect a 1 point lead state wide.

well, can't speak about the ohio poll, but here's their iowa one from yesterday:

Q21 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ........................................................ 28%
Republican...................................................... 34%
Independent/Other.......................................... 38%

although it might just mean that there are more iowans who are republicans in general? because ppp probably didn't pull out a book and planned on calling more republicans and independents than democrats.

 

[Baraka in the White House]

WE

ARE ALL

GOING TO DIE.

:-(

 

[Aaron Strife]

well, can't speak about the ohio poll, but here's their iowa one from yesterday:

although it might just mean that there are more iowans who are republicans in general? because ppp probably didn't pull out a book and planned on calling more republicans and independents than democrats.

PPP doesn't weigh based on party ID.

Exit polls in Iowa was 34-33 D/R. That PPP's poll had an R+6 may have informed their results.

 

[Link]

'I Feel Your Pain,' Romney Tells Campaign Rally Attendees Who Make $20 Million A Year

http://www.theonion.com/articles/i-feel-your-pain-romney-tells-campaign-rally-atten,29929/

I love The Onion. What's scary is I couldn't even tell it was an Onion article until toward the end

 

[Kevitivity]

I wonder how Obama would be doing right now if he had bothered to show up in Denver. Looks like it's having a much bigger effect on this election than anyone imagined. Not even a decent second debate accomplished much of anything.

Conventional wisdom says that the debates (as fun as they are) don't really matter that much.

 

[CaptainSchwann]

Well R+6 in that poll would surely explain explain why it was so close.

 

[pigeon]

I'm starting to feel like I did in 2010. Really uncertain but things seem to be breaking slightly for the GOP at this point.

This thread is an object fucking lesson in the dangers of not maintaining a holistic perspective.

 

[empty vessel]

The reason it seems that way is that many of Obama's supporters have already voted. Look at people who've actually voted...who's breaking for whom?No. Exit pollsters poll early voters to account for them.True. Personally, I consider whether it serves the public interest to provide that information. And I don't think it does. If there were evidence GMOs were harmful, I'd support the measure. However, it provides information irrelevant to making a healthful choice. And if I had to guess, consumers are generally more knowledgeable about proper nutrition than the evidence on GMOs. So I can envisage ignorant consumers making uninformed decisions based off extraneous information.

Yeah, I understand, and don't think your position is unreasonable. I just disagree and would prefer to err on the side of more consumer information.

 

[Y2Kev]

Well R+6 in that poll would surely explain explain why it was so close.

breathe breathe breathe breathe *breathes into bag*

 

[Loudninja]

I love The Onion. What's scary is I couldn't even tell it was an Onion article until toward the end

I know right? haha

 

[Slime]

I'm starting to feel like how I did in 2010 too.

Maybe you should start feeling like you did in 2000. ;_;

Charlie Cook:

I am now reconciled to the fact that this will be a race to the wire. I am watching Ohio and a handful of other swing states that are right at, or near, the 270-electoral-vote tipping point. In the end, the odds still favor the popular and electoral vote heading in the same direction, but the chances of a split like the one in 2000 are very real, along with the distinct possibility of ambiguity and vote-counting issues once again putting the outcome in question.

An Ohio recount would drive me up a wall.

 

[JesseZao]

I love The Onion. What's scary is I couldn't even tell it was an Onion article until toward the end

ikr! It's too true!

 

[AniHawk]

way too close for comfort.

I'm starting to feel like I did in 2010. Really uncertain but things seem to be breaking slightly for the GOP at this point.

actually i'm pretty okay with the split. it matches the national level decently, what romney's camp's best estimation of the split is, and where results were last friday from ppp... and it's still a lead, albeit a tight one.

plus, obama's winning virginia because of reasons.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Maybe you should start feeling like you did in 2000. ;_;

Charlie Cook:



An Ohio recount would drive me up a wall.

I didn't know either of the candidates' names in 2000.

 

[CaptainSchwann]

I honestly never knew all of these polling agencies used so many different sampling methods.

 

[pigeon]

Maybe you should start feeling like you did in 2000. ;_;

Charlie Cook:



An Ohio recount would drive me up a wall.

The core statement of this post is literally "We don't know what Romney's ground game will look like, so it might be awesome!"

This defies all the information we actually have about ground games in general and Romney's in specific.

 

[Forever]

Man I wish it were the election already. Just get this shit over with.

 

[Diablos]

Oh it would be glorious if he loses OH and NH but wins VA/CO/IA/NV/NM.

Fucking glorious I tell you.

 

[speculawyer]

PoliGAF->PollGAF->PANICGAF!

 

[Y2Kev]

Oh it would be glorious if he loses OH and NH but wins VA/CO/IA/NV/NM.

Fucking glorious I tell you.

No, because CO and NV are in a later timezone and everyone would have to deal with you panicking until like 12.

 

[Hobbestetrician]

https://twitter.com/clint/status/259736531063930880

Biden bursts into FL Field Office with massive amounts of Dunkin Donuts+box of of coffee all while wearing aviators

Diamond Joe sez: "Quit your fucking panicking, we got this! (and donuts)."

 

[Piecake]

I wont be concerned about polling until the day before/day of the election. It just seems kinda pointless to worry/cheer about something that doesnt matter since it will likely change (slightly) in the upcoming weeks.

 

[Owzers]

We are all gonna die

My feelings exactly. Democrats tried hard and no one can take that away from them. They'll get another chance in 2020.

 

[Jackson50]

Yeah, I understand, and don't think your position is unreasonable. I just disagree and would prefer to err on the side of more consumer information.

I don't want any shit about siding with big business, either. That's dangerous for a liberal.

Sure, let's worry about one poll (that still shows a lead).

We're approaching an unprecedented depth today. To not only panic about a single poll, but a poll estimating Obama's leading? Jesus.

 

[Link]

https://twitter.com/clint/status/259736531063930880


Diamond Joe is taking over.

Like a boss.

 

[apana]

I don't know what effect this next debate will have, do people care about foreign policy right now? I think a narrow Obama victory in the debate won't do much whereas a loss would hurt him quite a bit because then many voters will see Romney as competent on both domestic and foreign policy issues.

 

[AniHawk]

Oh it would be glorious if he loses OH and NH but wins VA/CO/IA/NV/NM.

Fucking glorious I tell you.

winning virginia and losing new hampshire and ohio would mean obama would need to win either nevada or colorado.

virginia would basically mean for an early night.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Final prediction. Willing to bet my avatar on it.

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=MBy

 

[Forever]

Final prediction. Willing to bet my avatar on it.

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=MBy

Wisconsin to Romney?

I'll take that bet.

 

[Baraka in the White House]

I don't know what effect this next debate will have, do people care about foreign policy right now? I think a narrow Obama victory in the debate won't do much whereas a loss would hurt him quite a bit because then many voters will see Romney as competent on both domestic and foreign policy issues.

As long as he fucking shows up and doesn't let Romney run his mouth, he's fine.

Like others have said, it's Obama's election to lose.

Will it wind the clock back to September? No. Shit's gonna be tight no matter what.

 

[HylianTom]

Veins are still nice'n'icy. He's got this, guys. Stop it.

Interesting note: I'd love to see RV numbers in these state polls. With Obama's crazy-insane GOTV ops, I'm thinking he gets closer to RV numbers.

 

[Kevitivity]

I think Obama's big problem is in the debates he really hasn't shown his vision for the next 4 years and it's making people apprehensive.

This is exactly right. I said as much after the third debate. BO was all about hope and change last time around, with a vision for the future. None of that this time around - BO has been reduced to silly word games. That does not win elections.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Wisconsin to Romney?

I'll take that bet.

It's either Wisconsin or Ohio and Ohio seemed too obvious of a choice.