ryutaro's mama
Member
What I miss today, fellas?
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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.
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Aaron Strife
Banned
I can't believe Romney got himself roped into contesting Pennsylvania. It's completely a hail-Mary.
Romney's sending staffers out to Pennsylvania which means PANIC
Obama's leading in Ohio, Virginia, and Florida which means he's losing.
Romney's sending staffers out to Pennsylvania which means PANIC
ryutaro's mama
Member
Hmmm...sounds like Ohio is worse off than Romney thought so he's looking for alternate routes to 270.
I could be wrong tho.
Hey now. Pittsburgh (the city) has a come a long way, it's pretty nice. It's when you get outside of the city and closer to outside of Allegheny county when you get that Pennsyltucky vibe.
Particle Physicist
between a quark and a baryon
Exactly, it's quite disgusting. I'd like to see what Kevevity or some other republican has to say about this practice
Well Obama went from +5 to +1 in PPP, and after factoring in early voting, it's basically 48O/48R in the state
So that's why there's some panic.
In better news a poll did have Bams up +2 in VA, which is pretty nice.
SSGMUN10000
Connoisseur Of Tedium
OK guys I'm starting to get a little nervous here. I was curious how much did Obama outperform the polls in 08 due to the ground game? Is it possible that a few of these states that are lean romney go to Obama because of this?
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
LOL!
*facepalm*
The Librarian
Banned
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
LOL. Scott Brown couldn't handle the pressure. That is one hell of a bad campaign.
Hey, like Scott Brown says, he has normal folks in his ads, unlike Warren who hires actors to play asbestos victims.
"khunt" LOL. Oh man, Scott Brown's complete implosion has been a stress relief valve in this campaign.
True. I applaud Scott Brown for finding your ordinary, real-life, Republican voter whereas Scott hires local talent trying to get into Hollywood.
That's my hunch. Reminds me of McCain's desperation as time dwindled in '08.
He probably knows he can't crack Ohio (after throwing everything at it, the best he can get is a tie every once in a while? ha!)(this, and he knows Obama's Ohio GOTV ops are legendary) , so it's time to move into a state where voters perhaps aren't as hardened in place.
ryutaro's mama
Member
No.
TacticalFox88
Banned
I think Diablos is starting to be like PD, except using Polls.
CaptainSchwann
Member
McCain wasted his last few days in PA and we know how that turned out. Hopefully Romney uses everything he's got there.
Fool's gold.
No I'm just getting way too much anxiety and often getting confused with the fuckton of polling data/analysis thrown at us daily now. This cycle has been really crazy. I just want this to be over and with an Obama victory.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/pa/pennsylvania_romney_vs_obama-1891.html
GOP winning that state would be like Obama taking Indiana again.
Then go volunteer at the nearest Obama office, Pennsylvania has plenty. Sheesh.
If you're so worried about losing then don't go down like a bitch.
Diablos, if Romney wins PA, then it's because romney has won OH and IA and we're fucked anyway. I'm not worried about PA.
Well it is possible that Obama can win without Iowa or Ohio if he carries Virginia.
But if it comes to that then Iowa shall forever be known as the Judas State.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Fair enough since obama is jesus anyway.
prediction for the next two weeks:
obama wins debate #3. nobody really cares, but the race remains mostly where it is right now, with obama fluctuating between 1 and 3 points. wins ohio by 3 points, iowa by 2 points, colorado by 3 points, nevada by 4-5 points, new hampshire by 1-2 points, and virginia by 1 point.
ohio, virginia, iowa, and new hampshire will be too close to call until about the time polls close pst. nevada, california, oregon, and washington will be called for obama at the same time. there's a 253-235 split going into the evening. ohio gets called sometime after 11est/8pst, and obama is reelected, while other states remain too close to call.
obama wins debate #3. nobody really cares, but the race remains mostly where it is right now, with obama fluctuating between 1 and 3 points. wins ohio by 3 points, iowa by 2 points, colorado by 3 points, nevada by 4-5 points, new hampshire by 1-2 points, and virginia by 1 point.
ohio, virginia, iowa, and new hampshire will be too close to call until about the time polls close pst. nevada, california, oregon, and washington will be called for obama at the same time. there's a 253-235 split going into the evening. ohio gets called sometime after 11est/8pst, and obama is reelected, while other states remain too close to call.
CaptainSchwann
Member
At which time no one will give a fuck about the other states.
He's got ads on msnbc. He sucks at managing money. What did he start with? For all of the slimy stuff he's done, I bet someone putting money into stock ETFs that mostly invest in good businesses would beat his personal performance.
Yep. The internals show these states virtually locked to an Obama win.
Romney's focus on Penn is the campaign flailing around as it's falling apart.
If Iowa does go red with the early voting so heavily dominated by Obama and the ue rate at 5%, my point was that we have much bigger problems. He wouldn't win Virginia.
But I am optimistic that does not happen! Wonder why the WH is denying the Iran stuff.
On the "the electorate is stupid" thing from a few pages back:
It's actually much worse than "think of the average person, then understand that 50% of the public is dumber than that". Even smart, reasonable people can be badly misinformed and can completely misunderstand the way our politics works. It actually takes a lot of time to sort out which sources are generally trustworthy, starting from scratch, because what look like the most reasonable sources - CNN, NYT, etc. - are surprisingly bad, and all but the most partisan media make no effort to help voters decide who's actually to blame for various things.
I was recently at a conference with a bunch of science PhDs on NASA grants. Smart people, who have more reason than most to pay attention to politics. We're all naturally very concerned about budget cuts, and there were a couple special sessions entirely about the effects of various cuts to NSF and NASA programs and about what actions we could take to make things better. Something like half the comments from attendees (and presumably only the people most confident of their opinions commented) were of the "if only the parties would work together there wouldn't be any problems" variety, suggested action basically boiled down to "write letters to Congresspeople/Obama", and I remember only one comment that attempted to get at the real reason why Obama submitted a tighter budget than allowed by the continuing resolution.
It's actually much worse than "think of the average person, then understand that 50% of the public is dumber than that". Even smart, reasonable people can be badly misinformed and can completely misunderstand the way our politics works. It actually takes a lot of time to sort out which sources are generally trustworthy, starting from scratch, because what look like the most reasonable sources - CNN, NYT, etc. - are surprisingly bad, and all but the most partisan media make no effort to help voters decide who's actually to blame for various things.
I was recently at a conference with a bunch of science PhDs on NASA grants. Smart people, who have more reason than most to pay attention to politics. We're all naturally very concerned about budget cuts, and there were a couple special sessions entirely about the effects of various cuts to NSF and NASA programs and about what actions we could take to make things better. Something like half the comments from attendees (and presumably only the people most confident of their opinions commented) were of the "if only the parties would work together there wouldn't be any problems" variety, suggested action basically boiled down to "write letters to Congresspeople/Obama", and I remember only one comment that attempted to get at the real reason why Obama submitted a tighter budget than allowed by the continuing resolution.
A Romney win in Iowa would simply make no sense to me. They have an unemployment rate that is the envy of the nation, thanks largely to Obama's wind policies. They share Midwestern roots with the President. And of course, they have a long and warm history with him.
Meanwhile Romney is a robotic, wealthy Northeastern elitist with no core principles who they never liked much anyway.
It would truly boggle my mind if Iowa flipped this year.
<GOP> BECAUSE OBAMA CAN'T GET TOUGH WHEN IT COMES TO IRAN.
cultural issues.
The cultural issues should favor their fellow Midwesterner over the Northeastern elitist.
talisayNon
Member
"cultural" issues
Frank the Great
Banned
obama black tho
If they were racist then they wouldn't have voted for him by a 10% margin in 2008. Hell they got him started in the primaries.
lots of iowans have socially conservative views that lead them to favor the republican party, it's not that complicated. it's not even that he's black, people there don't even care it about those things much, it's more abortion/gay marriage.
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