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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.
- Thread starter Amir0x
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Wait what?
dumb non-story.
talisayNon
Member
I watched Obama's A More Perfect Union speech again today to remind me why I fell in love with him.
Dude killed it.
Dude killed it.
I was wondering the same thing.
http://www.allvoices.com/contribute...ting-machines-through-bain-capital-investment
The machines will be used in Ohio, Colorado, Oklahoma, Washington and Texas
jbug has his answer.
SSGMUN10000
Connoisseur Of Tedium
Anyone?
the ground game advantage tends to be built into polls (as in, having better ground game means that people are more likely to turn out and have their choice locked in weeks or months before the election and thus they are more likely to be counted in polls). obama's margin in 2008 wasn't underestimated by the aggreate of polls.
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
Northern midwest doesn't have a lot strong racism issues actually. We're the "moderate" belt of the country, we tend to skew blue but I think a good mid-range Republican could take a few of the states up here
I'm not aware that anyone has studied organizational strength in relation to outperforming the polls. However, it's not unreasonable to expect that an organizational advantage might cause a campaign to slightly outperform the polls. GOTV efforts are most effective on voters who might be omitted by a LV screen.
With only a few weeks remaining, he doesn't have much to lose. I'd say it's worth the gamble given its size.
Well, that was even less successful than I anticipated. It did seem a bit dubious considering the spectacular failure of the P5+1 negotiations.
What the fuck. Surely this is huge?
PhoenixDark
Banned
Meh, rich guy makes an investment that will make him a lot of money; it's like buying stock in eggs for Easter.
So...how much truth is there to this story?
PollDiablos = PD
except when it did:
florida
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/fl/florida_mccain_vs_obama-418.html
average: 1.8
538 aggregate: 1.7
result: 2.8 (closest: survey usa)
ohio
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/oh/ohio_mccain_vs_obama-400.html
average: 2.4
538 projection: 3.4
result: 4.6 (closest: univ of cinci)
colorado
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/co/colorado_mccain_vs_obama-546.html
average: 5.5
538 projection: 6.6
result: 9.0 (closest: ppp)
nevada:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nv/nevada_mccain_vs_obama-252.html
average: 6.5
538 projection: 4.9
result: 12.5 (closest: zogby)
virginia:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/va/virginia_mccain_vs_obama-551.html
average: 4.4
538 projection: 5.6
result: 6.3 (closest: ppp)
... so basically, you don't give a damn about the issues, and you waste your vote sticking it to the man, whoever that may be at the time, cancelling out the vote of someone who actually bothers to inform themselves and make a calculated decision.
People like you are a disgrace to democracy.
Good news for Gallup.
nate did say the ground game maybe only amounted to an extra point. the other shifts can be contributed to excitement for obama. that probably won't happen this time. so fingers crossed for good ground game efforts.
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
So I went to see the Prairie Home Companion live tonight, and I was really gratified to see that during the pre-show when Garrison Keillor came out slamming the proposed marriage amendment in Minnesota (that would restrict marriage to hetero couples) the audience erupted with cheers and claps, and this was an audience of mostly elderly people in their fifties and sixties.
Also he really came out slamming Romney and the republicans in tonights show. I mean, the show always has a liberal bent, but this was by far the most explicit its ever been. One line was something like "why on earth would we hand the country back to the clowns that got us here with a financial crisis and three wars?"
Also he really came out slamming Romney and the republicans in tonights show. I mean, the show always has a liberal bent, but this was by far the most explicit its ever been. One line was something like "why on earth would we hand the country back to the clowns that got us here with a financial crisis and three wars?"
PhoenixDark
Banned
when did he say that?
cartoon_soldier
Member
Damn that Ohio Poll...
2004:
co
rcp average: 5.2
result: 5
nv
rcp average: 3.5
result: 3
va
rcp average: 8.1
result: 8
oh
rcp average: 2.1
result: 2
fl
rcp average: 0.6
result: 5
ia
rcp average: 0.3
result: 0.1
so realclearpolitics was amazingly close in their averages leading up to that election. i think enthusiasm for obama made his results much better than what the polls were pointing towards.
co
rcp average: 5.2
result: 5
nv
rcp average: 3.5
result: 3
va
rcp average: 8.1
result: 8
oh
rcp average: 2.1
result: 2
fl
rcp average: 0.6
result: 5
ia
rcp average: 0.3
result: 0.1
so realclearpolitics was amazingly close in their averages leading up to that election. i think enthusiasm for obama made his results much better than what the polls were pointing towards.
ppp will get them again next week, probably. if it's in +1 romney to +1 obama still, maybe it's cause for concern. right now, it seems slightly out of the norm, and even lower than romney's group's best projections (for romney).
I still think Romney needs to be +2 or +3 in Ohio to even have a shot on 11/6. In-person early voting has been on absolute-fucking-fire compared to even 2008. OFA has an incredible ground game in the 3 C's and they're getting people to those county early voting centers in droves.
from what i can tell, ppp's final results (be it +1 or +5) include the math for the early voting. going by their math for iowa, for instance, would give romney a +1 win, even with early voting.
They do include people who've already voted, absolutely. But a banked vote is worth a lot more than a likely vote, and Obama's running up a huge margin of certain votes.
Baraka in the White House
2-Terms of Kombat
It is?
Yes, people who have not already completely decided to vote for Romney are totally concerned with this issue.
Edit: Sorry, forgot we don't have a sarcasm tag.
I don't see it being discussed on any news websites or networks, where are you getting this from? Fox News?..
nvm if it's sarcasm though...
Benghazigate/running wild is fox news. I watch from time to time to see what's up in bizarro world. They are still whining about Candy.
This exchange made me laugh harder than anything else today
Frank the Great
Banned
i had no idea the 2008 polls underestimated obama that much. in 2008, RCP only had bams +2.4 in ohio . . . yet people here are shitting their pants over ONE poll that has bams +1. people need to chill.
cooljeanius
Member
This just reminded me that I still need to fill out and send in my absentee ballot for NH...Doing my absentee ballots now. Two more for Obama...
...in South Carolina...
lol get to it guy and include any family that can add a vote to obama too.
NihonTiger90
Member
At which point I'm at work screaming at the TV so I can get A1 done for tomorrow morning's newspaper.
Umm no we were one of the first states to legalize interracial and gay marriage thank you very much
Only the outlying rural areas in the farmland share conservative vales
Maybe it's cognitive dissonance but based on Colorado's recent history, including electing Bennett in 20-fucking-10 during the teaparty meltdown, I just can't imagine it going Romney.
cartoon_soldier
Member
2008 Obama enthusiasm was also unmatched.
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