PhoenixDark
Banned
But not before the election, if ever
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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.
- Thread starter Amir0x
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But not before the election, if ever
I honestly believe that voter suppression tactics should be considered tantamount to treason. They're such a blatant subversion of the democratic process that the entire nation is built upon, and yet we have Republican officials getting away with it every single election. I really wish the issue was taken more seriously. Instead we have right-wing justices wanting to fuck with the VRA and the Ohio Secretary of State trying desperately to disrupt the process without even hiding it. How does this shit happen in 2012, let alone America?
I'm reminded again of John Lewis' speech at the DNC. So good. Already seems like forever ago. = \
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a1YtlOXDfyA
Nice! If Obama repeats in Florida, that renders Ohio irrelevant yes? I sure hope so, I hate this state enough as it is. I am still shocked that he won this state 4 years ago with all these ignorant confederate flag flying rednecks here.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Yes. If Obama won Florida, he'd only need one more swing state - even New Hampshire - to reach 270. That's if you don't already give him Wisconsin.
I've been reading this thread for a while now and you are kind of an enigma to me. A lot of the reasons you thought Romney would win (the implosion of the Euro tanking the economy, for instance) didn't turn out to be true. Obviously new reasons have come up that Romney might win. Do you think you picked the right outcome, but not for the right reasons? More importantly who do you want to win?
RustyNails
Member
I'm pretty sure Obama's not going to sit and let Ohio get stolen. His lawyers have already successfully overturned GOP bullshit about early voting. It's pretty clear John Husted is getting desperate, and Obama's not going to sit it out like Kerry.
Well time is running out.
meaning what?
Aaron Strife
Banned
He wants Hillary to win in 2016. That's the only thing he's been consistent on.
He's suspending votes already via snail mail.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
you guys are getting hysterical
Aaron Strife
Banned
You think what Husted is doing is no big deal?
No, Aaron - not you! You've been consistently confident!
This place is only going to get worse as we approach Election Day, I suppose.
I stand by my prediction, although I'm 50-50 on Virginia and New Hampshire. And my other half holds it as a complete metaphysical certitude* that Obama will win New Hampshire. We shall see.
One look at Husted, and I'm reminded me of the "racist frat boy" types that I met at Ole Miss back in the 90s. Totally unscrupulous. But I remain confident that Obama knows well what he'd be trying.
* Note.. my partner is not John McLaughlin. But he does like to imitate him.
I don't think that's quite it. I think you are assuming too much right now and just need to calm down.
Yeah this is a bit much even for me. I don't like these voter suppression tactics and people should vigorously oppose this kind of stuff but I think even Nate Silver said he doesn't think it will amount to a meaningful difference on election day and he was talking about states with even stricter rules than Ohio.
RustyNails
Member
It will be contested or resolved by the civil rights groups and activists or another wave of lawyers by the federal government. Whichever is efficient. It's a shameless attempt by the state though. This is why gubernatorial elections are important, and I hope OH has learned it's lesson by picking this turd Kasich over Strickland.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Sorry guys, truth hit me. I think it's time we accept President Romney and Chairman Ryan.
I actually think that, in the end, Husted may have helped Obama.. by pointing to how important it is that people in Ohio vote. Especially groups that like to vote for Democrats. This may end-up being the ultimate irony of his collective antics.
Damn. Getting lonely here.
PhoenixDark
Banned
I haven't changed my position: I think Romney will win. It seems like Obama's debate win hasn't changed anything - this has gone from a potential Obama blowout to a toss up.
metalslimer
Member
lol, even you know that in no world was there ever going to be an Obama blowout
And this thread is getting unbearable to read. It would honestly be more interesting to read conservative counterpoints than see a bunch of scared liberals about to have heart attacks and PD just inciting it.
cartoon_soldier
Member
http://www.buzzfeed.com/bensmith/iran-news-will-shift-debate-focus
Why is Iran agreeing or wanting to have talks a gift for Romney? If American people think Iran agreeing to talks is bad for US, then they can vote Romney into office, go right fucking ahead.
Why is Iran agreeing or wanting to have talks a gift for Romney? If American people think Iran agreeing to talks is bad for US, then they can vote Romney into office, go right fucking ahead.
SteveWinwood
Member
I heard obama already lost guys.
CaptainSchwann
Member
Bad news for Obama
This guy is not an authority on anything it's best to leave him to his opinions.
cartoon_soldier
Member
So looked at PPP Internals...D+8 sample. Their previous samples were D+4. That's bad. Let's hope other polls don't show similar tightening.
That shows you debates don't mean jack. This election was always going to be close and the negative coverage for Romney in September just exaggerated Obama's lead. We are right back where we were before the conventions
It is not a gift for him, they just assume we all want to blow them up and talks mean that won't happen.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Debates don't matter? Obama might lose this election because of the first debate. It was never likely the second debate would make a similar impact, unless it was a repeat of the first
If Obama loses, he was going to lose anyways. The same polls you're pointing at to prove the first debate mattered show very few folks changed their minds afterwards (I didn't see higher than 6% in any polls that asked that). An Obama blowout was never in the cards with 8% unemployment and a hostile media (unlike everyone but Fox in 2008)
Agreed all Romney had to do was put up a fight, by the natural position of being able to be combative at the debate with the president makes the challenger look presidential. Unenthusiastic Republicans and Independant leaning republicans were always going to come back to romney as long as he showed up. Obama is going to win but the election was always going to be close.
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
I will admit that the possibility, in my mind, of Romney winning has always been an absolute non-possibility up until today.
I mean, you have the best campaign team of all team in Obama's corner. You have the best ground game of all time. You have a very likable president who has done a lot of big things.
Then you have a guy that represents to a T the sliminess of politics. This is a man who has lied through his teeth for the last two years in the hopes that he would have a shot at the presidency. He out-crazied the other Republicans at the debates, and during the primaries. He shifted to literally almost every single position possible in order to gain votes and confidence. He has half the campaign offices as Obama and less cash to spend. He started out highly unlikable to almost all people, he is a Mormon, and one of the wealthiest people in America. He has avoided delineating almost any plans on anything, and instead relies on fake math to do his work for him. This has been exposed as terrible by almost everyone. He has alienated immigrants, women, evangelicals, blacks, gays, and even his own people.
And this guy might have a chance to win the presidency.
America is hilarious. I always talk about the average IQ being 100, meaning that half are at or below that mark, and this is the most obvious way to prove that point.
That said, due to his shapeshifting ways, we simply cannot find out how Romney would be in office without him getting there. Will we get 2008 campaign Mitt (probably not all that bad), 2012 campaign Romney (if he holds onto his few stickler positions, we are all screwed), Governor Romney (signed healthcare legislation, gay marriage rights, etc. into law, even raised some taxes and closed loopholes to balance the budget, would probably be optimal Romney)???
If we could get a heavy D majority in both houses and Romney into office, he might be forced to be Moderate Mitt again...
I mean, you have the best campaign team of all team in Obama's corner. You have the best ground game of all time. You have a very likable president who has done a lot of big things.
Then you have a guy that represents to a T the sliminess of politics. This is a man who has lied through his teeth for the last two years in the hopes that he would have a shot at the presidency. He out-crazied the other Republicans at the debates, and during the primaries. He shifted to literally almost every single position possible in order to gain votes and confidence. He has half the campaign offices as Obama and less cash to spend. He started out highly unlikable to almost all people, he is a Mormon, and one of the wealthiest people in America. He has avoided delineating almost any plans on anything, and instead relies on fake math to do his work for him. This has been exposed as terrible by almost everyone. He has alienated immigrants, women, evangelicals, blacks, gays, and even his own people.
And this guy might have a chance to win the presidency.
America is hilarious. I always talk about the average IQ being 100, meaning that half are at or below that mark, and this is the most obvious way to prove that point.
That said, due to his shapeshifting ways, we simply cannot find out how Romney would be in office without him getting there. Will we get 2008 campaign Mitt (probably not all that bad), 2012 campaign Romney (if he holds onto his few stickler positions, we are all screwed), Governor Romney (signed healthcare legislation, gay marriage rights, etc. into law, even raised some taxes and closed loopholes to balance the budget, would probably be optimal Romney)???
If we could get a heavy D majority in both houses and Romney into office, he might be forced to be Moderate Mitt again...
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
Romney doesn't need 6 states, he needs Ohio, Florida and any one other swing state. He would be smart to start hitting the phone banks and town circuits, though.
Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and then any other swing state, actually. Romney needs to contest all six of those battlegrounds. His electoral map is narrower.
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
true, true. Why they are wasting time in PA and WI is beyond me, though.
Mgoblue201
Won't stop picking the right nation
Romney actually needs OH, FL, VA, and another swing state. However, Romney faces an uphill battle in just about all of them, so he can't simply focus on only a few states. He needs to put some effort into taking as many as he can. No point in putting all his resources in, say, CO only to lose it.
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
If it were me, it would be to focus on the aforementioned 3 and then Colorado. Obama has a huge campaign office advantage there, but Romney has hung tight. If Romney got out there and moved his people who will surely do nothing in PA or WI and get Colorado to go red, it would be pretty impressive, especially with all that talk earlier in the year on GAF about how CO was forever to be a lost cause to Republicans based alone on how many new hispanics were there in the last 4 years.
cartoon_soldier
Member
WI is close.
OH is the big prize. Obama must keep it at all costs. The PPP poll sucks in that regards.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Romney's problem is his path is dependent on winning most of the swing states. All his efforts go kaplooey if Obama wins Florida, for example.
Not that he can't pull it off, just that he's got a taller order than Obama.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Bad news for Obama.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Obama's internals have him up 7-9 points in PA. The end goal is to see if they can have Obama spend more resources in PA.
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
Seriously. Romney is going to lose being stupid, despite the electorate just begging for a reason to reelect the best President in 12 years.
Then go volunteer, Pennsylvania is under attack and all you're doing is crying.
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
I would still buy all of the intrade Obama shares at this point, but if Romney had some Zen-level 3rd debate performance (Obama couldn't f up foreign policy debate, could he?) I would start selling, even at a loss.
The electorate wants a strong white male to tuck them in at night.
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