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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.
- Thread starter Amir0x
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Ehh even pre-conventions you could argue Obama potentially having a 5, perhaps 10 point spread where it counts
cartoon_soldier
Member
The really bad Ohio poll...apart from the topline numbers the internals look bad for Obama.
TacticalFox88
Banned
I just convince myself it's a shtick like PD to save my sanity.
If the only thing testing your sanity is posts like mine, in light of what's going on in Ohio in regards to polling and otherwise, you might be in denial.
cartoon_soldier
Member
I am hoping it will be back to Obama above 50 next week with a 3 point spread.
PhoenixDark
Banned
His point is that Romney is such a bad candidate with so many disadvantages, running against the best campaign team of all time...and is still in a toss up race. He blames it on the people, I blame if on the candidate.
This thread spent weeks claiming Ohio was a sure bet, nothing to worry about, and lampooned those who dared think otherwise. Well despite saving the auto industry and supporting unions, Obama is barely leading in Ohio. That's pathetic. And again: we wouldn't be having this discussion if Obama showed up to the first debate.
As I said no one should throw their hands up for either candidate until tomorrow night. Stil, Obama's camp can't be happy seeing the map crumble for two weeks
TacticalFox88
Banned
You blame the candidate? Really? After all of Obama's accomplishments in spite of a Congress determined to block anything good he does and you blame him for half the country's stupidity in supporting a complete sociopath for a candidate?
Come the fuck on.
It's PD. This can't be your first exposure to PD, can it?
Aaron Strife
Banned
Nate Silver has Ohio as a Lean Obama state. I trust him more than you.
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
I definitely blame Americans for the most part, but Obama gets some of the blame for not taking advantage of his primetime first spot vs. Romney in the debate. Romney looked like the incumbent and Obama looked tarnished and unprepared.
TacticalFox88
Banned
Me too, but if it ends up being within a point:
This guy doesn't give a fuck and could potentially hand the election to Romney.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Romney did one thing in that debate that Obama and his team had spent months attacking him on - looking Presidential. He passed that gap that had been putting off a lot of blue collar white voters in the Midwest and that is where the first debate was dangerous for Obama.
As I said before debating the president automatically makes you look presidential, even if obama brang some heat to that debate. Romney by just being able to go toe to toe with obama is going to bring up the enthusiasm of those who weren't sure about romney being president. Romney was going to gain from the first debate no matter what.
cartoon_soldier
Member
OH Poll average is Obama +1.4, not that different from PPP's poll. The more concerning part is the movement in PPP's poll.
I agree that the first debate always helps the challenger. Obama's problem was that the gap was so wide.
Me too, but if it ends up being within a point:
This guy doesn't give a fuck and could potentially hand the election to Romney.
I am sure anything in regards to voter fraud is being handled, until we get further evidence that it's happening more widespread lets just stick to what the polls tell us. There is no point in being negative here all the time.
"In his book published earlier this year, former Bain Capital partner and Mitt Romney supporter wrote this:"
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021587557
What the fuck? So what does he want to do with the American workers who could have these jobs? Throw them in concentration camps? WTF. Why isn't the media talking about this?
http://thinkprogress.org/economy/2012/10/19/1046711/romney-tax-study-repeal/?mobile=nc
I won't lie, I am straight up terrified by this man. Terrified. The fact that we're looking at a 50/50 race that'll be likely somewhere in between 2000/2004 in how it plays out is so very disturbing.
Forever: I'd love to seriously volunteer but I work up to 50 hours a week.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021587557
What the fuck? So what does he want to do with the American workers who could have these jobs? Throw them in concentration camps? WTF. Why isn't the media talking about this?
http://thinkprogress.org/economy/2012/10/19/1046711/romney-tax-study-repeal/?mobile=nc
I won't lie, I am straight up terrified by this man. Terrified. The fact that we're looking at a 50/50 race that'll be likely somewhere in between 2000/2004 in how it plays out is so very disturbing.
Forever: I'd love to seriously volunteer but I work up to 50 hours a week.
Just not true. The only thing he accomplished in that debate was to get the media off his back so they could attack Obama for 2 weeks.
The polls say 6/7% changed their minds after the debate (and that's both ways so pro Romney is even smaller)
What the debate did was accelerate the GOP homecoming to Romney. It would have happened regardless and we'd be blaming Obama's tone in the 2nd debate or something else
I am guessing it probably has to be even closer than a point for these tactics to actually change the outcome.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Eh? Everyone has a view of who they think will win. I don't believe Romney has a 100% chance, just a better chance than Obama. My point is there is no reason to panic right now, for either side. Monday could change that.
In short, calm down bro and wait for the final round
I think republican enthusiasm was just at a really low point with the whole libya thing and the 47 percent comment. They probably didn't think he was going to be president at all but the debates happened and they all came back which probably is the reason for the wide recovery for romney post the 1st debate. People just need to get it in their heads that this was always going to be a close election and stop bitching about everything.
I don't follow the economy regularly, but 8% unemployment seems pretty normal to me. I know Obama didn't fulfill his campaign promise, but I really didn't expect much in 3.5 years. It's going to take more than 10 years to get the economy to get everything back to where it was in 2000. I don't care what Romney, Obama, or anyone else says.
At this point in time, Obama is at 70% in the sportsbooks and 60% on IEM and Intrade. There is no tangible reason to say Romney has a better chance
I think come election day people will see the economy is not bad, we are heading towards recovery and vote obama I honestly do
What is it with the double standards in this country? Obama's campaign almost completely imploded because of Rev. Wright's commentary post-9/11. He had to denounce him, his church, completely disassociate himself from it. And what seemed like by the act of some miracle he got back in the game, barely, and went on to get elected.
But the words of Rev. Wright were not Obama's. Sure he was his spiritual advisor and whatnot, but they were not his words.
Yet somehow, it's okay for Mitt to get away with calling half the country dirty, useless poors -- in a secret meeting behind closed doors, not in a Church where anyone from the general public could hear Rev. Wright. He lies his way through apologizing, says he cares about 100% of all Americans, and it's not a problem.
Does anyone else find that just a little upsetting?
But the words of Rev. Wright were not Obama's. Sure he was his spiritual advisor and whatnot, but they were not his words.
Yet somehow, it's okay for Mitt to get away with calling half the country dirty, useless poors -- in a secret meeting behind closed doors, not in a Church where anyone from the general public could hear Rev. Wright. He lies his way through apologizing, says he cares about 100% of all Americans, and it's not a problem.
Does anyone else find that just a little upsetting?
Aaron Strife
Banned
He's got a feeling, brother
Mgoblue201
Won't stop picking the right nation
He has to focus on VA, FL, and OH because he has no choice. Beyond those, he needs to try to contend NH as much as possible, because it's his best path to victory if he does not win CO. I'm not sure whether it's in his interest to pour resources into NV and IA, especially since the latter has started early voting. I want to say that he should at least try to keep them in play, but he also has to be realistic about his chances.
Romney hasn't led, or even tied, a Wisconsin poll since late August. 538 gives Obama an 80% chance of winning - more than even Ohio.
Even putting aside the fact that the poll is no worse than many others in the past, I thought we would've learned by now not to extrapolate the state of an entire race based upon a single poll (or even a few polls). We should be no more likely to believe that Obama leads Ohio by one than we should believe that Obama leads Iowa by eight.
The guy in the white house is also half black and that's a nightmare for old America. Too bad for them, they are a dying breed.
cartoon_soldier
Member
I think Obama still needs a grand closing argument, like the TV ad spots he released 3 weeks ago. Abortion, Auto Bailout, etc is fine. Still need some forward looking spots too. That 2 minute ad of Obama should be running again.
And Obama needs to do his best to tie Romney to Bush's foreign policy. The thing he failed to do for economics in the 1st debate.
And Obama needs to do his best to tie Romney to Bush's foreign policy. The thing he failed to do for economics in the 1st debate.
TacticalFox88
Banned
Mitt is a white man.
Obama is a minority, half-black, but you know the "One drop" rule.
White Privilege and all that jazz.
ErasureAcer
Banned
Blame me guys. I'm voting Obama and no one I've ever supported has won the Presidency. Nader-Kerry-Nader-Obama.
in rand, the difference appears to be intention to vote. it's been generally the same for obama all week, while it's risen 3 points in the last three days for romney supporters.
for some good news, rand also shows a 1.8% shift from romney to obama in each of the last two days.
Black Mamba
Member
The RAND change is almost entirely in the intention to vote aspect. Romney supporters have increased by 2 percentage here while Obama's has dropped by 1 % (since the peaks of Obama +6).
I honestly have no idea what's causing these fluctuations. And it's impossible to know if this is concentrated in the South. i honestly don't understand what drives the intention to vote because you'd think by now someone would already decide if they're voting or not, especially if they partake in a weekly poll.
On the positive side, in RAND their Ohio sample is showing people switching from Romney to Obama more than the reverse the past 7 days.
I'm pretty much convinced at this point it's all up to Obama getting the vote out. Every model (except Gallup) shows Obama has a sizable lead among registered voters. It's all about getting them out there.
I honestly have no idea what's causing these fluctuations. And it's impossible to know if this is concentrated in the South. i honestly don't understand what drives the intention to vote because you'd think by now someone would already decide if they're voting or not, especially if they partake in a weekly poll.
On the positive side, in RAND their Ohio sample is showing people switching from Romney to Obama more than the reverse the past 7 days.
I'm pretty much convinced at this point it's all up to Obama getting the vote out. Every model (except Gallup) shows Obama has a sizable lead among registered voters. It's all about getting them out there.
Vote for Romney?
There's no way Dems are as excited to vote than Rethugs. If it comes down to turnout vs. turnout we've gotta hope that Obama ground game accounts for at least 1% in the states where he will desperately need it to win
Could be noise. We have to see it reflected in a better overall poll
Romney up to 206 in the RCP electoral map now.
Officerrob
Banned
I think PPP is releasing a Missouri poll (lol). I imagine that was done for the senate race
they just moved nc over to lean romney. both sides have stopped caring about it now anyway.
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