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[Forever]

To me even if the poll is 'tied', it's a likely win for Obama. What makes a difference in cases like that? Epic Get out the Vote campaigns, field offices and volunteers. And Obama literally dwarfs Romney in all cases.

I expect all of that advantage to be negated by GOP shenanigans and Jon Husted.

 

[Marvie_3]

Here's Drek's electoral map post-unskewing:

Holy shit. :lol

 

[HylianTom]

Hah, yeah I try to comfort myself that I'm slowly getting into a really good position when it comes to my resume and trajectory in my life that a president Romney probably wouldn't be too terrible for me individually. Still, I fucking hate what it'd likely do to this country as a whole.

My thing is this: we're in for some really rough times, no matter who wins. I'm not a doomer (heck, I chose to live in the city over living out in the woods), but I think we're heading towards a decline in living standards, economy, etc. Energy prices, environmental problems, our debts.. we've been skating through painlessly for a while now, but it can't last forever.

And I'd much rather have President Obama and his court appointees making decisions in these rough times.

 

[Sirpopopop]

There are more issues than finance to worry about here.

Romney shitting on green energy will hurt everyone on the end. Global warming doesn't discriminate. Nature doesn't give a shit if you have wealth, you'll get fucked over just the same.

 

[Byakuya769]

Two weeks, thank god. my productivity has plummeted. I spend most of my day refreshing this thread now on my phone for no reason except to read the same posters saying the same thing! oh little comfort familiarity is these days...

Same here. That and seeing if I show up in one of those "cast of poligaf" lists.

 

[kirblar]

My thing is this: we're in for some really rough times, no matter who wins. I'm not a doomer (heck, I chose to live in the city over living out in the woods), but I think we're heading towards a decline in living standards, economy, etc.

And I'd much rather have President Obama and his court appointees making decisions in these rough times.

It's not so much a decline as it is a stagnation in how quickly our economic growth is growing (and therefore our overall standard of living is increasing.) Tyler Cowen has argued (persuasively, imo) that we've essentially used up all the "low hanging fruit" when it comes to technological and economic innovations, and we're at a point where our marginal returns in these areas are likely to be rather small. Our baseline standard of living in the US is one where it's simply hard to get it up any further right now.

 

[Cloudy]

I don't think the NBC/WSJ poll is bad for Obama. Since he's supposedly in the tank since the first debate, why is he still up with RV and tied with LV?

A national vote tie is an electoral college win for Obama. In fact, Romney probably has to win the national vote by a full percentage point to win

 

[-PXG-]

Mock if old

BEHIND THE VEIL: Never-Before-Seen Footage of Secret Mormon Temple Rituals

Holy shit.

 

[Loudninja]

Lindsey Graham: ‘I Think The Time For Talking Is Over’ On Iran

"They continue to enrich, enrich. I think the time for talking is over. We should be demanding transparenty and access to their nuclear program," he said. "As we continue to talk, they continue to enrich."

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/graham-i-think-for-talking-is-over-on

 

[The Librarian]

Same here. That and seeing if I show up in one of those "cast of poligaf" lists.

You need to have a more distinct personality.

Participate in media conspiracy theories with: Drek

 

[Cloudy]

Lindsey Graham: ‘I Think The Time For Talking Is Over’ On Iran

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/graham-i-think-for-talking-is-over-on

If Romney is dumb enough to say this in the debate, Obama will ask if he wants another war

 

[RDreamer]

My thing is this: we're in for some really rough times, no matter who wins. I'm not a doomer (heck, I chose to live in the city over living out in the woods), but I think we're heading towards a decline in living standards, economy, etc. Energy prices, environmental problems, our debts.. we've been skating through painlessly for a while now, but it can't last forever.

And I'd much rather have President Obama and his court appointees making decisions in these rough times.

I tend to think the rough times we go through will be due to unsustainable inequality, the student debt problem, and our healthcare problem. Those are my most crucial issues.

I don't think we're headed for a decline in economy. I think it'll pick up, as economists tend to think, too, but it'll still be slow due to those two issues. The millennials just aren't going to be able to prop up a booming economy with the massive debts on our backs. It just isn't going to happen. And our healthcare needs more fixes even after Obamacare (like letting medicare bargain for drug prices), not the whole thing being blown up.

So, yeah, Romney would definitely be worse on these issues, though Obama isn't exactly running to completely fix them, either. I tend to be someone that thinks Obama is more of a guy who's putting his finger in the dike on these problems, holding back the tide until the millennials can take more control of things from the retarded baby boomers.

 

[pigeon]

It's not so much a decline as it is a stagnation in how quickly our economic growth is growing (and therefore our overall standard of living is increasing.) Tyler Cowen has argued (persuasively, imo) that we've essentially used up all the "low hanging fruit" when it comes to technological and economic innovations, and we're at a point where our marginal returns in these areas are likely to be rather small. Our baseline standard of living in the US is one where it's simply hard to get it up any further right now.

Frankly, this seems quite hard to believe to me, because there are many areas where the problem isn't necessarily innovation so much as infrastructure. For example, guaranteed broadband wouldn't do much for you or I, probably, but there are a lot of Americans for which it would represent a big change in their lives. And it doesn't require innovation -- just investment, and government-backed disruption, we've been unwilling to make.

Maybe the issue is that we're talking about different averages -- I suspect the median standard of living is significantly lower than many people assume it to be. There are a lot of gains to make there that don't really require much except sweat equity.

 

[Forever]

If Romney is dumb enough to say this in the debate, Obama will ask if he wants another war

Forget that, Obama should bring it up with Romney and ask what he plans to do if not talk.

 

[kirblar]

Frankly, this seems quite hard to believe to me, because there are many areas where the problem isn't necessarily innovation so much as infrastructure. For example, guaranteed broadband wouldn't do much for you or I, probably, but there are a lot of Americans for which it would represent a big change in their lives. And it doesn't require innovation -- just investment, and government-backed disruption, we've been unwilling to make.

Maybe the issue is that we're talking about different averages -- I suspect the median standard of living is significantly lower than many people assume it to be. There are a lot of gains to make there that don't really require much except sweat equity.

But while it increases someone's standard of living, it doesn't do so on at the very basic level. Food, shelter, transportation, etc - these are the things where we've stalled out.

 

[Rocket Scientist]

If Romney is dumb enough to say this in the debate, Obama will ask if he wants another war

There's no reason to asking someone during a debate anything. Just claim he obviously wants war. Don't give him an opportunity to steal your time, interrupt or anything.

 

[HylianTom]

It's not so much a decline as it is a stagnation in how quickly our economic growth is growing (and therefore our overall standard of living is increasing.) Tyler Cowen has argued (persuasively, imo) that we've essentially used up all the "low hanging fruit" when it comes to technological and economic innovations, and we're at a point where our marginal returns in these areas are likely to be rather small. Our baseline standard of living in the US is one where it's simply hard to get it up any further right now.

We've also used-up all of the "low hanging fruit" for our energy and mineral resources. With increased demand for these resources worldwide, the pressure is on.

---

And since Amir0x is speaking of ground game (i.e., The Thing That Has Had Me So Calm), here's a new article on the topic about Obama's supreme advantage on this point:
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articl...ign-opens-up-a-big-lead-in-field-offices.html

Ground Game: Obama Campaign Opens Up a Big Lead in Field Offices

So The Daily Beast decided to map out the Obama and Romney local headquarters across the country as one way of gauging the strength of each campaign’s ground game. And what we found was an overwhelming advantage—755 to 283—by the Obama campaign on at least this one metric.

In the key swing states of this election the numbers are stark:

In Ohio, 122 Obama local HQs compared to 40 for Romney.

In Florida, the Obama campaign has 102 local HQs versus 48 for Romney.

And in Virginia, a more even split—47 for Obama compared to 29 for Romney.

If a state is tied, Obama's ground game should be able to deliver it; indeed, the post-mortem of this race might blame Romney's loss on his failure to invest in a more robust ground game.

 

[Tim-E]

Mock if old

BEHIND THE VEIL: Never-Before-Seen Footage of Secret Mormon Temple Rituals

Holy shit.

How convenient that this is being peddled around two weeks before election day.

::roll eyes::

 

[786110]

Here's Drek's electoral map post-unskewing:

 

[kirblar]

I do think he's right about Hillary/Condi being a highly likely matchup - Rice has been extraordinarily visible this cycle for someone who's previously disavowed any desire to run for office.

But that's 4 years out, and Hillary's age/health will likely be the biggest factor in whether she runs in the next cycle.

 

[PhoenixDark]

I wake up and Poligaf is on a ledge, and a couple posters are peddling skewer conspiracies. Calm down, this isn't over yet

 

[Trurl]

I thought Elahim and Jehovah were the same entity. Is Elahim the Mormon name for the holy ghost?

This needs to be sorted out before I know whom I'm voting for.

 

[thefro]

Mock if old

BEHIND THE VEIL: Never-Before-Seen Footage of Secret Mormon Temple Rituals

Holy shit.

Holy crap

 

[Forever]

I do think he's right about Hillary/Condi being a highly likely matchup - Rice has been extraordinarily visible this cycle for someone who's previously disavowed any desire to run for office.

But that's 4 years out, and Hillary's age/health will likely be the biggest factor in whether she runs in the next cycle.

He was talking about 2008.

 

[Slime]

I do think he's right about Hillary/Condi being a highly likely matchup - Rice has been extraordinarily visible this cycle for someone who's previously disavowed any desire to run for office.

But that's 4 years out, and Hillary's age/health will likely be the biggest factor in whether she runs in the next cycle.

I actually don't think that's all that insane either.

It's a shame Condi went all out for Iraq, because aside from that, she's kind of OK for a Republican.

 

[Frank the Great]

I wake up and Poligaf is on a ledge, and a couple posters are peddling skewer conspiracies. Calm down, this isn't over yet

PD calming down other posters? bad news for obama.

 

[HylianTom]

PD calming down other posters? bad news for obama.

An odd morning, indeed. I'm already wondering what the next two weeks are going to bring.

 

[pigeon]

But while it increases someone's standard of living, it doesn't do so on at the very basic level. Food, shelter, transportation, etc - these are the things where we've stalled out.

I could be wrong, but I have even more trouble believing this. There seems no question to me that we could produce enough food and shelter for everybody. Nor would the marginal losses be as serious as you might think -- many if not most food items are produced as an enormously inefficient investment of carbon. (Beef is the prime* example of a food item that uses up a lot more food when you grow it than it's actually worth when you eat it.) There is, essentially, no marginal loss to shelter production given the amount of unused shelter we still have and how much more efficient large-density building is than small-density. The problems we face in terms of basic necessities (at least in America, possibly not globally) are fundamentally not problems of production but of distribution. That's actually one of the things that makes me want to be a socialist in the first place! Nobody in America is starving or dying of exposure because of inevitable limitations in our capability to provide for them. The free market's doing the work.


* HEYOOOOOO

 

[Y2Kev]

I heard a rumor that obama wrote a concession speech after seeing the PPP poll yesterday

 

[Cloudy]

@chucktodd: If I were to make educated guess today, 4 closest states are FL/CO/VA/IA. Polling diffs are about turnout and early vote makeup

No OH or WI in that list surprisingly

 

[kirblar]

He was talking about 2008.

Ah, lol. Although it does seem to indicate he might have been tipped off re: Condi's real political aspirations.

 

[Zzoram]

I could be wrong, but I have even more trouble believing this. There seems no question to me that we could produce enough food and shelter for everybody. Nor would the marginal losses be as serious as you might think -- many if not most food items are produced as an enormously inefficient investment of carbon. (Beef is the prime* example of a food item that uses up a lot more food when you grow it than it's actually worth when you eat it.) There is, essentially, no marginal loss to shelter production given the amount of unused shelter we still have and how much more efficient large-density building is than small-density. The problems we face in terms of basic necessities (at least in America, possibly not globally) are fundamentally not problems of production but of distribution. That's actually one of the things that makes me want to be a socialist in the first place! Nobody in America is starving or dying of exposure because of inevitable limitations in our capability to provide for them. The free market's doing the work.


* HEYOOOOOO

Truth.

The US Congress recently decided to pass a bill that will require 40% of corn harvest to be used to make biofuel. The corn "shortage" is entirely artificial as a result of a ridiculous government policy that the corn lobby pushed for since their subsidized corn fetches more profit when converted to biofuel than when used to feed livestock or people.

World hunger is not a production issue, it's a distribution issue.

 

[Cloudy]

More reason for Obama supporters to back off that ledge

http://election.princeton.edu/2012/10/21/anatomy-of-a-bounce/#more-7753

In the wake of his improved debate performance, President Obama’s recovery is now apparent. It is most clear when viewed in terms of the Meta-Analysis of state polls. Over the last four days, the Popular Vote Meta-Margin – the amount of swing it would take to create an electoral near-tie – has moved by over 1.0%. Today, the President’s effective lead, using Electoral College mechanisms, is Obama +1.8%. A rapid move like this can continue for a few days as polls catch up with the nation’s mental state.

I'm usually a freak out guy but I'm pretty calm as long as I don't see Intrade below 50% for Obama lol

 

[gcubed]

Seriously get the Mormon shit out of here.

 

[AlteredBeast]

RE: the Mormon temple video. If Romney is forced to comment on that video or any others will possibly do him in. To an outsider, that could be some damaging stuff...

Good old politics. Is this the Dem's October Surprise?

 

[pigeon]

No OH or WI in that list surprisingly

Wait, do you really find that surprising? That's what we've been saying the whole time, OH/WI are not currently that close at all. FL is maybe a tiny bit wishful thinking, but if the question is "what's closer, OH/WI or FL," the answer is clearly Florida, just on the face of it.

 

[Stinkles]

How convenient that this is being peddled around two weeks before election day.

::roll eyes::

Out of context, it is no crazier than a catholic ritual, but since the context includes a bunch of end of days Christians compelled to insist Obama is a secret Muslim, I have no issue with exposing them to some details about their 'Christian' choice.

 

[HylianTom]

No OH or WI in that list surprisingly

That's the first thing I noticed.

Seems pretty consistent with Blumenthal's take..

 

[786110]

It's a shame Condi went all out for Iraq, because aside from that, she's kind of OK for a Republican.

When the Republican Party reinvents themselves I can definitely see them pulling for the Condoleezza Rice mold so to speak.

But yeah I replied to a Dick Morris 2008 prediction with a Dick Morris 2008 prediction.

 

[RDreamer]

That oath of vengeance thing sounds pretty out there. The rest of it is meh, but that specifically would be kind of crazy for the American people to know about. I can't imagine how frothy the right would get if Obama took an oath of vengeance against the United States, lol.

Still, I'm not worried Romney would do shitbag things because he's mormon and took some silly oath. I'm worried he'd do shitbag things because he's a shitbag.

 

[Kusagari]

No OH or WI in that list surprisingly

Most surprising thing to me is no NH.

 

[Trurl]

I could be wrong, but I have even more trouble believing this. There seems no question to me that we could produce enough food and shelter for everybody. Nor would the marginal losses be as serious as you might think -- many if not most food items are produced as an enormously inefficient investment of carbon. (Beef is the prime* example of a food item that uses up a lot more food when you grow it than it's actually worth when you eat it.) There is, essentially, no marginal loss to shelter production given the amount of unused shelter we still have and how much more efficient large-density building is than small-density. The problems we face in terms of basic necessities (at least in America, possibly not globally) are fundamentally not problems of production but of distribution. That's actually one of the things that makes me want to be a socialist in the first place! Nobody in America is starving or dying of exposure because of inevitable limitations in our capability to provide for them. The free market's doing the work.


* HEYOOOOOO

I suppose that on some level everybody is aware of this. It's why conservatives will sometimes claim things like "nobody in America is dying of starvation" or "nobody dies due to a lack of health insurance."

 

[Cloudy]

RE: the Mormon temple video. If Romney is forced to comment on that video or any others will possibly do him in. To an outsider, that could be some damaging stuff...

Good old politics. Is this the Dem's October Surprise?

I didn't even look at the video cos I don't like dirty shit like that but I guess I will now..

 

[ClassyPenguin]

Truth.

The US Congress recently decided to pass a bill that will require 40% of corn harvest to be used to make biofuel. The corn "shortage" is entirely artificial as a result of a ridiculous government policy that the corn lobby pushed for since their subsidized corn fetches more profit when converted to biofuel than when used to feed livestock or people.

World hunger is not a production issue, it's a distribution issue.

Isn't biofuel corn a different plant almost entirely than the one for consumption?

 

[Stinkles]

Truth.

The US Congress recently decided to pass a bill that will require 40% of corn harvest to be used to make biofuel. The corn "shortage" is entirely artificial as a result of a ridiculous government policy that the corn lobby pushed for since their subsidized corn fetches more profit when converted to biofuel than when used to feed livestock or people.

World hunger is not a production issue, it's a distribution issue.

Everyone paying double or triple for beef and steak this year should be calling their congressmen.

 

[Zzoram]

I do think he's right about Hillary/Condi being a highly likely matchup - Rice has been extraordinarily visible this cycle for someone who's previously disavowed any desire to run for office.

But that's 4 years out, and Hillary's age/health will likely be the biggest factor in whether she runs in the next cycle.

A 68 year old woman in 2016 isn't exactly at the end of her life. She's got a solid 10+ years left in her even if she has the usual chronic diseases of the elderly. If she's healthier, and she may be due to having money and good health care, she may even live longer.

Hilary Clinton will not be too old to be President in 2016. The only issue is that the American people may not be willing to vote for a President that looks like Grandma.

Romney is 65 right now and he's a man, and men typically live shorter lives than women. If his age isn't an issue, Hilary's age shouldn't be either barring sexism.

 

[Thagomizer]

I thought Elahim and Jehovah were the same entity. Is Elahim the Mormon name for the holy ghost?

This needs to be sorted out before I know whom I'm voting for.

They are. Elohim is just Hebrew for God. In English texts, it is translated as "God," where YHWH/Jehovah/יהוה is written as "Jehovah" or "THE LORD," depending on the translation and what passage you are reading.

 

[syllogism]

There's nothing new in that mormonism video and there's approximately 0% chance of the topic being brought up.

 

[Black Republican]

Guys, all you have to look at the 2004 map and think how much fail Kerry was:

Obama's got this

 

[talisayNon]

RE: the Mormon temple video. If Romney is forced to comment on that video or any others will possibly do him in. To an outsider, that could be some damaging stuff...

Good old politics. Is this the Dem's October Surprise?

I think the people have a right to know that their own president will go to war against them, dont you?