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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.

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S

Souldriver

Member
B-Dubs said:
Economically liberal and socially conservative don't really mix all that well though, do they? If we're going to transition into a 3 party system this would be the most obvious way. Social conservatives in one party, economic conservatives/socially liberal in another, and completely liberal in the third. I doubt it would ever happen, but it would be interesting to see.
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The term "economically liberal" is not apt if you mean to say economically left. And social conservatism + leftist economic views work perfectly well together, and we have veeery obvious examples of it in history. Both aspects boil down to "protection of us against outsiders".
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
On the bright side of all this chicken-littling it looks like the Dems are on their way to maintain control of the senate. The Romney bumb had absolutely no affect on it. Plus Obama is at 67.6% in the Nov 6 forecast.
 
F

fallagin

Member
5AiCb.png
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
B-Dubs said:
On the bright side of all this chicken-littling it looks like the Dems are on their way to maintain control of the senate. The Romney bumb had absolutely no affect on it. Plus Obama is at 67.6% in the Nov 6 forecast.
Click to expand...

Just a month ago people would find it crazy to imagine dems holding the senate would have higher odds on 538 than Obama holding the white house.
 
E

Effect

Member
Donated again tonight. After a number of things are paid tomorrow and Tuesday I'll see where I'm at and will likely donate again. What's the max a single person can donate again?
 
C

ClassyPenguin

Banned
B-Dubs said:
Economically liberal and socially conservative don't really mix all that well though, do they? If we're going to transition into a 3 party system this would be the most obvious way. Social conservatives in one party, economic conservatives/socially liberal in another, and completely liberal in the third. I doubt it would ever happen, but it would be interesting to see.
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Hitler?
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Mitt Romney Campaign Blimp Makes Emergency Landing near Fort Lauderdale

"A blimp-like aircraft emblazoned with an "America Needs Romney" message made an emergency landing near a Davie park this evening, much to the joy of many voters in Broward County, one of the most-liberal places in Florida.

There were no injuries, Davie police said. Except, perhaps, for Republican pride.

As the blimp went down, Twitter lit up.

"Just saw a blimp falling out of the sky. It says America needs Romney... Yeah right! You can't even keep your blimp in the sky," @swadedarling tweeted an hour ago.

"A blimp with a pic of Mitty that says 'America needs Romney' just went down in Davie, Fl. Could that be a predicament of what's to come?" resident Carime Hernandez tweeted.

It's unclear if the blimp was chartered by the Romney campaign or one of the groups that support him. Davie police confirmed the aircraft, which is technically not a true blimp, was advertising on Romney's behalf and did make an emergency landing."
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http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nake...nding-near-fort-lauderdale.html#storylink=cpy
romney-blimp-jpg.jpg
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Also the undecideds in the Senate race support Mitt Romney over Barack Obama 81-13. Maybe they'll leave the Senate race blank in the end but if they end up grudgingly voting for Akin it would make the race basically tied.
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rofl, these fuckin undecideds.
 
J

Juice

Member
Cheebo said:
Just a month ago people would find it crazy to imagine dems holding the senate would have higher odds on 538 than Obama holding the white house.
Click to expand...

I still do.

Not that I don't believe it, but that I find it crazy. Wasn't 2012 always going to be a tough slate of senate races on account of the 2006 wave election and more blue states in play?
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Juice said:
I still do.

Not that I don't believe it, but that I find it crazy. Wasn't 2012 always going to be a tough slate of senate races on account of the 2006 wave election and more blue states in play?
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Well we have to remember guys like Todd Akin are running...
 
D

Diablos

Member
Didn't the Obama camp also saying when you cite internal polls, "you're losing"? I would assume that's what they are referring to, lol.

IA poll looking nice.

So, about them there signs. I called my local Obama campaign office. They told me that they (as in the national campaign) do not "believe" in signs, they've done research suggesting they don't work. You can go to a DNC office and get one for $5 or order one for $20. Even the person I talked to thought it was dumb that they aren't being supplied with signs.

I'm getting pissed off seeing nothing but Romney/Ryan signs around here. People are actually making custom Obama signs and putting them up. I realize it might be a tit-for-tat, but it sucks not seeing your guy represented in something that undecideds probably take into account more than other people.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Diablos said:
Didn't the Obama camp also saying when you cite internal polls, "you're losing"? I would assume that's what they are referring to, lol.
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No, that's just going off of the internals Cook has seen from Romney and Obama's camp. Here's the full list

NC: Romney +1 to +4
Virginia: Romney +3 to Obama +1
Florida: Romney +2 to Obama +2
Colorado: Romney +1 to Obama +5
NH: Even to Obama +5
Iowa: Romney +1 to Obama +7
Wisconsin: Even to Obama +6
Ohio: Even to Obama +7
Nevada: Obama +3 to +7
Pennsylvania: Obama +3 to +8
Michigan: Obama +7 to +8
Click to expand...
I posted those yesterday but they're updated.

Not to say I only trust Obama's internals but they look a lot closer to what we've been seeing than Romney's did.
 
D

Diablos

Member
Aaron Strife said:
No, that's just going off of the internals Cook has seen from Romney and Obama's camp. Here's the full list


I posted those yesterday but they're updated.

Not to say I only trust Obama's internals but they look a lot closer to what we've been seeing than Romney's did.
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Delicious.

I really hope downballot voting helps Sen. Casey here in PA, as Tom Smith is closing the gap. I don't want another fuckwit from my state in the Senate, Toomey is bad enough.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
No, that's just going off of the internals Cook has seen from Romney and Obama's camp. Here's the full list


I posted those yesterday but they're updated.

Not to say I only trust Obama's internals but they look a lot closer to what we've been seeing than Romney's did.
Click to expand...

Even safely assuming that the campaigns are giving us the best polls they have, these tell basically the same story as all the other polls -- NC is lost, FL/VA/CO/NH very close, everything else is basically a takeaway for Obama with only outliers showing Romney even in competition.
 
C

CoffeeJanitor

Member
pigeon said:
Even safely assuming that the campaigns are giving us the best polls they have, these tell basically the same story as all the other polls -- NC is lost, FL/VA/CO/NH very close, everything else is basically a takeaway for Obama with only outliers showing Romney even in competition.
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Ohio seems super close...
 
A

AniHawk

Member
Aaron Strife said:
No, that's just going off of the internals Cook has seen from Romney and Obama's camp. Here's the full list


I posted those yesterday but they're updated.

Not to say I only trust Obama's internals but they look a lot closer to what we've been seeing than Romney's did.
Click to expand...

end of election:

nc: romney +2
virginia: romney +2
florida: romney 50.01-49.99
colorado: obama + 2
nh: obama +2.5
iowa: obama + 3
ohio: obama + 3.5
nevada: obama +5
pennsylvania: obama +5.5
michigan: obama +7.5

290 evs for obama.
 
M

makingmusic476

Member
Bad news for Obummer.

At this point I will be freaking out about a potential loss until November 7th. Too many polls swinging into the red zone for me to assume states like Iowa and Ohio are locked down. At this point I don't really trust the polls that show one or the other as having a 1-2 point lead in any state to give us a real idea of who is going to win that state. Could go either way.

Edit:

By that same token, I'm not counting Virginia and Florida as losses yet. My gut still tells me it'll be the 2008 sans IN/NC/FL map.
 
A

AniHawk

Member
CoffeeJanitor said:
Ohio seems super close...
Click to expand...

if romney's camp is confident in reporting things as even, they better hope they're taking early voting into account.

one thing we're seeing across the board is wide planned support for election day, going from 8 to 20 points in romney's favor. this also happened in 2008, where early voting really saved obama's ass. obama needs to bank as many votes now, and keep the gap anywhere from 2:1 to 3:1 in places like iowa and ohio.

florida is a possibility, considering where absentee ballots are right now, but i wouldn't totally bank on it. early voting there would need to be enormous for obama.

what other states have early voting? va, nh, co, pa, etc?
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
AniHawk said:
end of election:

nc: romney +2
virginia: romney +2
florida: romney 50.01-49.99
colorado: obama + 2
nh: obama +2.5
iowa: obama + 3
ohio: obama + 3.5
nevada: obama +5
pennsylvania: obama +5.5
michigan: obama +7.5

290 evs for obama.
Click to expand...
Obama has to win Virginia and Florida. I can't look dumb in front of my facebook friends
 
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