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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.

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D

Darkgran

Member
Oblivion said:
Chris Wallace once again proves that he can play the occasional shithead just as well as his Fox News brethren:

http://mediamatters.org/blog/2012/10/21/fox-news-sunday-dishonestly-cuts-up-obamas-acts/190797
Click to expand...

This is amazing. HE WAS REFERRING TO BENGHAZI!!!!

From the freaking transcript....

Of course, yesterday was already a painful day for our nation as we marked the solemn memory of the 9/11 attacks. We mourned with the families who were lost on that day. I visited the graves of troops who made the ultimate sacrifice in Iraq and Afghanistan at the hallowed grounds of Arlington Cemetery, and had the opportunity to say thank you and visit some of our wounded warriors at Walter Reed. And then last night, we learned the news of this attack in Benghazi.

As Americans, let us never, ever forget that our freedom is only sustained because there are people who are willing to fight for it, to stand up for it, and in some cases, lay down their lives for it. Our country is only as strong as the character of our people and the service of those both civilian and military who represent us around the globe.

No acts of terror will ever shake the resolve of this great nation, alter that character, or eclipse the light of the values that we stand for. Today we mourn four more Americans who represent the very best of the United States of America. We will not waver in our commitment to see that justice is done for this terrible act. And make no mistake, justice will be done.
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These people are insane.
 
K

kingkitty

Member
is anyone gonna make a debate thread for the third party debate on tuesday? I think it'll be some legit stuff. Four different candidates, podiums and maybe even an audience! And of course the great Larry King will be the moderator.

edit: VVVV no it's tuesday. the third party one.
 
C

Crisco

Banned
It's seems pretty clear to me that the prevalence of early voting is screwing with these LV models. It's almost impossible that Obama has such dominating leads with people who have already voted, yet is barely leading/tied in the poll.
 
C

Chichikov

Member
kingkitty said:
And of course the great Larry King will be the moderator.
Click to expand...
You know, I thought he was done and gone in his last few years at CNN, but then I saw him host a panel after the 2nd presidential debate, and damn, he was fantastic.
I haven't been really following him, is he doing something worthwhile on his internets venture?
 
C

CygnusXS

will gain confidence one day
Manmademan said:
this sort of says to me that either democrats were SO excited to vote that they all did so early (unlikely), or that likely voter models are underrating them.
Click to expand...

Considering how hard the Obama ground crew has been pushing early voting, the first scenario is actually possible. They could reach some level of early voting saturation soon, leaving a disproportionately large republican lead for day-of-date voters.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
Crisco said:
It's seems pretty clear to me that the prevalence of early voting is screwing with these LV models. It's almost impossible that Obama has such dominating leads with people who have already voted, yet is barely leading/tied in the poll.
Click to expand...

nope, early voting is just showing the flaws in the LV models.
 
T

thefro

Member
Manmademan said:
this sort of says to me that either democrats were SO excited to vote that they all did so early (unlikely), or that likely voter models are underrating them.
Click to expand...

The whole theory of early voting is that the Obama campaign can bank their likely voters early which allows all the volunteers, etc to focus on turning out the less likely voters on election day.
 
K

kingkitty

Member
Chichikov said:
You know, I thought he was done and gone in his last few years at CNN, but then I saw him host a panel after the 2nd presidential debate, and damn, he was fantastic.
I haven't been really following him, is he doing something worthwhile on his internets venture?
Click to expand...

well he has a show on the website Ora.Tv where he interviews mostly b-celebs...so nothing really worthwhile lol. it's Larry King Live on the internets pretty much, but I'm sure the debate will be worth a watch.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
If you early vote, you aren't really a "likely voter." You are a guaranteed voter. How can you be put in the same LV category as someone a model says is likely to vote? You are a 100% voter.

also y is anyone voting for rombot lOL idiots
 
P

-PXG-

Member
Repub co-worker will claim these numbers are cooked or just a complete lie. I keep telling him that details, internal tracking, demographics and early voting matter. I keep telling him that Obama has always had a higher probability than Romney in the electoral map. He's delusional and lives in an alternate universe. He's gonna be severely butthurt
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
-PXG- said:
Repub co-worker will claim these numbers are cooked or just a complete lie. I keep telling him that details, internal tracking, demographics and early voting matter. I keep telling him that Obama has always had a higher probability than Romney in the electoral map. He's delusional and lives in an alternate universe. He's gonna be severely butthurt
Click to expand...

or will you once all the early votes are thrown out
 
M

Manmademan

Member
Y2Kev said:
If you early vote, you aren't really a "likely voter." You are a guaranteed voter. How can you be put in the same LV category as someone a model says is likely to vote? You are a 100% voter.

also y is anyone voting for rombot lOL idiots
Click to expand...

Kev are you drunk right now? serious question
 
A

AniHawk

Member
Y2Kev said:
Our new Iowa poll for @HCAN finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 49-48 there: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-leads-by-1-in-iowa.html …

So...O+2 in...two days?
Click to expand...

THE MOMENTUM IS UNSTOPPABLE!

iowa firmly in obama's corner.

1.2m people
early voting

obama: 245,760
romney: 134,400

election day:

obama: 359,040 | 604,800 | 50.4%
romney: 440,640 | 575,040 | 47.92%

2.48% lead come election day.

marist's thing had obama at a 5% lead about a week ago, and romney had a 1.19% lead two days ago.
 
D

Darkgran

Member
AniHawk said:
THE MOMENTUM IS UNSTOPPABLE!

iowa firmly in obama's corner.

1.2m people
early voting

obama: 245,760
romney: 134,400

election day:

obama: 359,040 | 604,800 | 50.4%
romney: 440,640 | 575,040 | 47.92%

2.48% lead come election day.

marist's thing had obama at a 5% lead about a week ago, and romney had a 1.19% lead two days ago.
Click to expand...

And this is why I keep saying Obama is not going to lose this election. The panic is not necessary...
 
A

AniHawk

Member
another thing to consider about the two iowa polls:

the one from two days ago had party lines break into: (using d-r-i) 34-38-27. now it's 41-34-25. in 2008 it was 34-33-33.

the breakdowns in age groups are exactly the same. the breakdown between men and women are exactly the same. women were split 49-48 between obama and romney, and are now 53-44.

men were split 47-49 and are now 45-53.

this polling period accounts for 200 less people, and takes place during ppp's last polling period, it essentially omits polling data from wednesday, and just has thursday and friday. so thursday was an incredibly positive polling day in the original poll for republicans.

so yeah. state's not a lock yet, if they're still finding things this close with the demographics favoring obama, but it looks like women might win this election for him in important swing states. women voted obama over mccain 53-47 in 2008.

metalslimer said:
Thread will be back to panic mode in few hours. Bipolar disorder won't go away.
Click to expand...

it won't? that makes me a little nervous.
 
M

markatisu

Member
AniHawk said:
another thing to consider about the two iowa polls:

the one from two days ago had party lines break into: (using d-r-i) 34-38-27. now it's 41-34-25. in 2008 it was 34-33-33.

the breakdowns in age groups are exactly the same. the breakdown between men and women are exactly the same. women were split 49-48 between obama and romney, and are now 53-44.

men were split 47-49 and are now 45-53.

this polling period accounts for 200 less people, and takes place during ppp's last polling period, it essentially omits polling data from wednesday, and just has thursday and friday. so thursday was an incredibly positive polling day in the original poll for republicans.

so yeah. state's not a lock yet, if they're still finding things this close with the demographics favoring obama, but it looks like women might win this election for him in important swing states. women voted obama over mccain 53-47 in 2008.



it won't? that makes me a little nervous.
Click to expand...

No state is a lock you just want something to worry about
 
R

RDreamer

Member
Lol, my parents actually believe they moved the DNC because they couldn't fill it. He laughed at me for actually believing it was the weather.

I really thought my dad was smarter than this.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Officerrob said:
Here in VA, I've gotten a ton more Obama ads then I did last week
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e64av.gif


You mean this one?
 
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