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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.

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L

littleworm

Member
Well the final debate is less than 20 hours away. Predictions on how it'll go? And what impact if any do you think it'll have on the overall election?
 
C

Cloudy

Banned
http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/A_Politics/nbc_oct_poll.pdf

So I'm reading through this WSJ/NBC poll. I don't see how this is some great result for Romney besides it being tied in LV.

Obama leads on all the character traits and on every issue besides jobs/economy (I know this is big but a majority also say the economy is improving) and deficits. Approval is also at 49% and there isn't much slippage on any issue from before the debates. Romney has gained but his favorability is still underwater.

Obviously Obama has to get folks to the polls but I would not be celebrating these internals if I was a Romney staffer...
 
A

AniHawk

Member
littleworm said:
Well the final debate is less than 20 hours away. Predictions on how it'll go? And what impact if any do you think it'll have on the overall election?
Click to expand...

obama should win, but it will be declared a tie no matter how much of a fuckup romney appears to be. the actual stuff people will be talking about afterward is libya, but no one in america will care about the debate in general and the current status quo will continue.
 
F

Fox318

Member
littleworm said:
Well the final debate is less than 20 hours away. Predictions on how it'll go? And what impact if any do you think it'll have on the overall election?
Click to expand...

Bob will do a fantastic job moderating. Both candidates will come out saying that they have won unless a candidate says something that is really really really really stupid.
 
C

CygnusXS

will gain confidence one day
Romney will complete the odd policy nomenclature trifecta of "gonna cut big bird"/"binders full of women"/"???".
 
A

apana

Member
The kind of debate style that Obama and Romney have usually results only in a tie or small lead if both of the candidates are prepared. They basically get up and repeat their talking points. Romney is a little more robotic than Obama but he prepares really well. The key is to get Romney talking about topics or issues that he did not prepare for and to be aggressive. I think Newt Gingrich was the most fluid debater I have seen so far in this election cycle but my memory is hazy.
 
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Black Mamba

Member
Honestly, if I was the Obama team, I'd run this television ad:

- Show Bush pushing tax cuts, talk about simplifying tax cut, talk about "fuzzy math" about him giving tax cuts mostly to the rich from his 1st debate.

- Show graph of our deficit balooning and then how much tax cuts went to rich and wage growth vs profits

- show Romney pushing tax cuts, talk about cutting deductions, show "the numbers work, I ran a business" line from debate.


Finish it off with some smart line i haven't come up with about Romney = Bush. edit: Maybe something like "Last time it was fuzzy math. This time we're told to trust them, they know the numbers. Don't be fooled by their numbers again."


TBH, this should have been done weeks ago before the 1st debate (granted without the last part of Romney in the debate but replaced with stump or whatever).
 
M

MasterShotgun

brazen editing lynx
littleworm said:
Well the final debate is less than 20 hours away. Predictions on how it'll go? And what impact if any do you think it'll have on the overall election?
Click to expand...

Obama will likely win. All Obama really has to do is not fall apart on the inevitable Libya question, and everything else should be in his favor. He needs to hammer home the point that Romney is Bush 2.0. (Obama tried it in the town hall debate, but he needs to go even harder than that.) I hope his victory by a mile, but it will probably be a similar spread as the second presidential debate. Both candidates know that it's do or die, so it could get ugly.

Unless one of them delivers such an epic beatdown that their opponent starts crying on stage, I don't think it will cause polls to shift much. Maybe a point in the winner's favor. Two points if it's a strong decisive victory. But we definitely won't get a repeat of the post-first debate polls.
 
S

syllogism

Member
Y2Kev said:
If you early vote, you aren't really a "likely voter." You are a guaranteed voter. How can you be put in the same LV category as someone a model says is likely to vote? You are a 100% voter.

also y is anyone voting for rombot lOL idiots
Click to expand...
Because people lie

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_..._results_from_public_media_polls_.single.html

Political scientists have found for years that citizens, aware of the socially correct answer, routinely lie to claim they voted when they had not.
Click to expand...
But Aida, along with Harvard public policy professor Todd Rogers, did something that past researchers hadn’t. They also looked up the records of those who had said they “will not vote,” an answer that prompts the operator to politely end the call and dial someone else. Greenberg Quinlan had excluded those people from their surveys, but Aida and Rogers found they were lying too, and at a higher rate than those who identified themselves as certain voters. Despite claiming they would not cast a ballot, 55 percent had
Click to expand...
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
Black Mamba said:
Honestly, if I was the Obama team, I'd run this television ad:

- Show Bush pushing tax cuts, talk about simplifying tax cut, talk about "fuzzy math" about him giving tax cuts mostly to the rich from his 1st debate.

- Show graph of our deficit balooning and then how much tax cuts went to rich and wage growth vs profits

- show Romney pushing tax cuts, talk about cutting deductions, show "the numbers work, I ran a business" line from debate.


Finish it off with some smart line i haven't come up with about Romney = Bush. edit: Maybe something like "Last time it was fuzzy math. This time we're told to trust them, they know the numbers. Don't be fooled by their numbers again."


TBH, this should have been done weeks ago before the 1st debate (granted without the last part of Romney in the debate but replaced with stump or whatever).
Click to expand...

Obama has done a piss poor job tying Romney to Bush for sure.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
An old classmate of mine is a regional field director for OFA North Carolina. I picked this link to Kos off his Facebook wall. (I think that should peg the needle on the "words that indicate a worthless link" meter, but here you go anyway.)

kos said:
North Carolina's One Stop Early Voting law allows people to register to vote and to cast their ballots early, all at the same time, all in one stop....

This is an over-generalization, but broadly Obama is indeed turning out new voters, whereas Romney is turning out the same old voters.

In total, 324,780 people voted in One-Stop Early Voting on Thursday and Friday. Of those, 42,709 were brand new previously unregistered voters. They did not pass any poll's "likely voter" screen, nor did they even pass any poll's registered voter screen. And yet, they voted. And it is clear that they voted overwhelmingly for Obama (probably by about 2 to 1).
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http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/...out-42-709-Unlikely-Voters-Have-Already-Voted

If Obama picks up North Carolina, it will be a pretty straightforward sign that likely voter screening needs a serious reinvention, along the lines of syllogism's article above. It will also be a pretty early night.
 
S

subrock

Member
MasterShotgun said:
Obama will likely win. All Obama really has to do is not fall apart on the inevitable Libya quest, and everything else should be in his favor.
Click to expand...

I think Obama tested out his "how-dare-you" shield last time with Libya and it worked out well for him. I can't see Romney thinking that luring Obama out would work a second time. Indignant/patriotic Obama is one of his strongest modes.
 
N

NullPointer

Member
littleworm said:
Well the final debate is less than 20 hours away. Predictions on how it'll go? And what impact if any do you think it'll have on the overall election?
Click to expand...
My logic center: An Obama win on the merits, a tie in the press only because Romney won't appear to be a complete dumbass.

My gut: Obama by a large margin. Romney has emotion and anger on his side, and some prevalent lies (apology tour being the most annoying), and that emotional appeal may work for domestic issues. But all the "feel good" answers in foreign policy are ones likely to entangle us in extremely expensive and costly engagements, and I think the voters are aware of that.

Obama needs to impress in people's mind Romney's failures up until now, his lack of interest, and work that into the Bush team of advisors he'd delegate his decisions to.

If Romney comes out even or on top after the debate, it'll be because of something petty. Either the President "hogging" credit instead of the Seal teams that took out Bin Laden. Or the apology nonsense.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
BTW, here is proof the American Electorate is stupid. Check out the Independents in the Iowa crosstabs for PPP here:

VH8LJ.jpg


Makes no sense. Mitt is for the middle class but Obama will make sure rich pay their fair share...

idiots.


edit: on the plus side of the Iowa polling, early voters have who have voted for Obama have outpaced the favorability/approval for Obama among early voters and it indicates people who are unfavorable or don't approve of Obama have voted for Obama. My take is that people who don't approve of Obama AND Romney are breaking for Obama.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
littleworm said:
Well the final debate is less than 20 hours away. Predictions on how it'll go? And what impact if any do you think it'll have on the overall election?
Click to expand...

Pretty torn on this. I should probably say that it'll be pretty inconsequential in both senses, with both candidates attacking some and mostly not committing to much.

But that would mean Romney executing yet another complete shift when it comes to foreign policy, and I think that's harder than domestic policy -- and easier to attack, because you can't flip-flop a war. Romney doesn't have the foreign advisers to pull it off -- but I don't know which Romney advisers masterminded the domestic policy shift either, so it's not impossible for him to fake it.

I agree that foreign policy is a particular strong point for Obama in particular. I also think the evidence is that it's a significant weak point for Romney. In my gut I want to say that Romney will do something really problematic during the debate. Big Bird and binders are about domestic policy and gender. But a foreign policy gaffe along those lines will be about race -- and about possibly causing a war.

I won't be able to watch this one, so somebody else should make the thread!
 
B

brianmcdoogle

Member
Since independent/undecided voters are still can't make up their minds after two conventions and two debates, when facing an incumbent, do they usually go for the challenger or the person already in office?
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
brianmcdoogle said:
Since independent/undecided voters are idiots, when facing an incumbent, do they usually go for the challenger or the person already in office?
Click to expand...

Independent are no more idiotic than Dems/Repubs. Undecideds are, but not Indies.

I'm an indie. I see no reason I should support the Democrat party as a party. When it comes to making a choice between these two parties, my choice is obvious right now. But there is nothing wrong with being unaffiliated.
 
C

ClassyPenguin

Banned
RDreamer said:
Because, again, people over here are stupid and think that austerity is necessary after spending too much. Again, they see this like a household budget. When you spend too much you have to cut spending a metric ton in order to get your financing straight. You don't look at a household budget and go "Wow this spending cuts suck, and we're really hungry. Let's not do them." No, you don't think that, because they're necessary, instead you think "Goddamn maybe I shouldn't have spent everything like a dumbass so frivolously."

Economies don't work like that, but the common man thinks they do. That's the problem. And when you have to explain something you've already lost.
Click to expand...

Most people voice their opinion and then are like, "lalala...I can't hear you!" when it comes that stuff.
 
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Black Mamba

Member
The IMF just posted the results of their study this week basically screaming "LOL COUNTRIES WHO DID AUSTERITY FUCKED THEMSELVES COMPARED TO THOSE THAT DIDN'T"

But the media will never touch it. We remain uneducated, here. An honest media should have been ramming it down our throats that austerity has fucked up much of Europe.


The grand comedy on all this is that the GOP/Mitt keeps talking about how in healthcare we shouldn't be "like Europe" and how Europe is all "socialist." But when it comes to austerity, which is a failure, they're all aboard to European train.
 
B

brianmcdoogle

Member
pigeon said:
Neither -- they split pretty evenly.

edit: It's really unproductive to call undecided voters idiots.
Click to expand...

Perhaps you're right. I'll edit my post. It is just infuriating, on either side of the isle, watching people go "well, I don't know" after watching two debates and the conventions.
 
R

reilo

learning some important life lessons from magical Negroes
Debate OT titles? There can only be one:

US Presidential Foreign Policy Debate |OT| Please proceed, governor
 
O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Wait, people are excited about BOB SCHIEFFER being the moderator? What planet are you folks living on?
 
N

NihonTiger90

Member
If there's any question that Obama is serious about the ground game, I actually got a visit today from folks out canvassing for the Obama campaign and talking up early voting if I can (I already planned on going, but it was nice to chat with them).

I live in Ohio, yes. But I live in what is generally considered to be a blood red county in a blood red district in a blood red part of the state; a county that we're convinced Obama wouldn't step foot in unless we had some sort of disaster because he has zero chance of actually carrying the county or most of the surrounding areas in 2012. Democrats running for office don't happen around here; our elections for political positions are generally done with in March when the GOP primaries are held.

But while I've noticed the Romney signs coming out in full force ... there have been a number of Obama signs I've seen in my travels as well. Romney's going to win the county, but I'll be more interested in what his margin of victory is. Anything less than a 20-point-win here would be a big harbinger of an Obama win in Ohio come Nov. 6.

I'm still predicting Romney wins here by about 25 points (62-37). But considering Wood County to the north was once as blood red as us and it's gone from being GOP to purple to lean Dem ... anything is possible, I guess. We'll see.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
During a fundraiser on Saturday, Missouri’s Republican Senate candidate Todd Akin again garnered attention for his word choice — this time when illustrating his argument that his opponent, Sen. Claire McCaskill brings back taxes and red tape from Washington D.C.

“She goes to Washington, D.C., it’s a little bit like one of those dogs, you know ‘fetch,’” Akin said. “She goes to Washington, D.C., and get all of these taxes and red tape and bureaucracy and executive orders and agencies and she brings all of this stuff and dumps it on us in Missouri.”
Click to expand...

If this guy wins, I just...ugh
 
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