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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.

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C

Cheebo

Banned
I am glad the debate tonight is up against Football. For some insane reason Romney got a bump from the second debate in polls (nationally and state leve) despite losing the debate. Thankfully Obama's lead in Ohio was so large to start with that all these Romney bumps leave Obama's lead outside of the margin of error still it seems despite his lead going consistently down in every poll.

I just hope these Romney bumps finally stop. I don't get why they keep happening. What in the world do undecides see in the guy?

If the bleeding stops Obama will win, but I thought the bleeding would have stopped after the second debate and it obviously didn't.
 
M

Mgoblue201

Won't stop picking the right nation
Oblivion said:
Maybe it's lowered expectations at this point, but that headline made the poll seem much worse than it actually was.
Click to expand...
The headline demands context, because the +10 Obama received in September was one of the most optimistic results during the very height of his polling advantage. There was no way that Obama was actually going to win the state by that margin. I wouldn't expect Obama to win by five points either, but at this stage of the race receiving a +5 in the most pivotal swing state is good news, especially given the overall context that very few polls actually show Obama losing in Ohio.
 
O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Mgoblue201 said:
The headline demands context, because the +10 Obama received in September was one of the most optimistic results during the very height of his polling advantage. There was no way that Obama was actually going to win the state by that margin. I wouldn't expect Obama to win by five points either, but at this stage of the race receiving a +5 in the most pivotal swing state is good news, especially given the overall context that very few polls actually show Obama losing in Ohio.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I knew Obama was pretty solid in Ohio for a long time, but a 10 point lead? I haven't seen him leading by that huge an amount in too many polls.
 
T

The Librarian

Banned
Cheebo said:
If the bleeding stops Obama will win, but I thought the bleeding would have stopped after the second debate and it obviously didn't.
Click to expand...
Actually, it did. It began to stop with the VP debate, actually.
Souldriver said:
Well, right now the popular vote has a slight edge for Romney, while Obama still has a bit of an edge in electoral votes. We can expect a 2 point bump for Romney after his last debate. You do the math. Obvious popular vote win for Romney, small electoral vote win for Romney. Time to face the music.
Click to expand...

You obviously have done an extensive analysis complete with rigorous testing. Please, share more of your wisdom with me.
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
Dax01 said:
Actually, it did. It began to stop with the VP debate, actually.


You obviously have done an extensive analysis complete with rigorous testing. Please, share more of your wisdom with me.
Click to expand...
Romney has continued to gain in nearly every past week. It's just in a lot of states Obama had a lot of wiggle room to lose a few percent here and there.
 
S

Souldriver

Member
Dax01 said:
You obviously have done an extensive analysis complete with rigorous testing. Please, share more of your wisdom with me.
Click to expand...
There's an obvious causational relationship between the gains Romney has and the debates. Ergo: Romney will win again tomorrow, taking a decisive insurmountable lead. I could ask JamesSinclair for a regression analysis if you want though.
 
M

markatisu

Member
Oblivion said:
Yeah, I knew Obama was pretty solid in Ohio for a long time, but a 10 point lead? I haven't seen him leading by that huge an amount in too many polls.
Click to expand...

Yeah I love how people keep clinging to the 10 point lead as if it was rock solid, unless its a diehard liberal area I don't think anything about 3-5pts would ever be the outcome

Unless something major happens Obama will win at least 275 electoral votes and the popular vote by 1-2% which is normal for a race

You fuckers are looney if you think he will lose the popular vote just because the South hates him
 
T

The Librarian

Banned
Cheebo said:
Romney has continued to gain in nearly every past week. It's just in a lot of states Obama had a lot of wiggle room to lose a few percent here and there.
Click to expand...

If you're talking about polls like the NBC/WSJ poll that showed the race tied, those were polls that were in the margin of error. Aside from that, tracking poll show an uptick for the president.

Edit:
Souldriver said:
There's an obvious causational relationship between the gains Romney has and the debates. Ergo: Romney will win again tomorrow, taking a decisive insurmountable lead. I could ask JamesSinclair for a regression analysis if you want though.
Click to expand...

Do itttttttt
 
T

The Librarian

Banned
uu3sc.png
 
M

Mgoblue201

Won't stop picking the right nation
Giant Panda said:
Why is it that with each successive Ohio poll Obama's early vote lead diminishes so much? I could have sworn just a week ago it 70%-30% O.
Click to expand...
This is the first poll I've noticed in which Obama has received less than 60% early voting, but it's also the first poll I've noticed in which Obama is leading with voters on election day. These two factors seem to largely balance each other out. +5 is actually the best result he's had in Ohio for the past nine days.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
The Romney machine is amazing. I saw some of them leading voters to polls in a single file line while repeating, "I will not deviate from my routine."

Incredible discipline.
 
N

nib95

Banned
Wolf is a hack of late. His entire take on this thing has been ludicrous. Every debate. The need by CNN to try and keep this looking looking super tight throughout just silly, that and pandering to what I can only assume would be Fox News viewers.

Tim-E said:
Couldn't find them in the last several pages, but here are the topics for tonight:


America's role in the world
Our longest war - Afghanistan and Pakistan
Red lines: Israel and Iran
The changing Middle East and the new face of terrorism I
The changing Middle East and the new face of terrorism II
The rise of China and tomorrow's world
Click to expand...

Oh God... Wonder how much sensationalist, war and fearmongering, anti Middle East sentiment will be spilled. That and the China bashing from Romney. Feel like I'm going to be cringing through most of this, off the answers from both of them.
 
T

Tim-E

Member
Couldn't find them in the last several pages, but here are the topics for tonight:


America's role in the world
Our longest war - Afghanistan and Pakistan
Red lines: Israel and Iran
The changing Middle East and the new face of terrorism I
The changing Middle East and the new face of terrorism II
The rise of China and tomorrow's world
 
B

Black Republican

Member
Tim-E said:
Couldn't find them in the last several pages, but here are the topics for tonight:


America's role in the world
Our longest war - Afghanistan and Pakistan
Red lines: Israel and Iran
The changing Middle East and the new face of terrorism I
The changing Middle East and the new face of terrorism II
The rise of China and tomorrow's world
Click to expand...
has Romney said anything on Pakistan?
 
C

Clevinger

Member
nib95 said:
Wolf is a hack of late. His entire take on this thing has been ludicrous. Every debate. The need by CNN to try and keep this looking looking super tight throughout just silly, that and pandering to what I can only assume would be Fox News viewers.
Click to expand...

Wolf has always been a really, really, really dumb hack. At least for the last decade.
 
A

Averon

Member
nib95 said:
Wolf is a hack of late. His entire take on this thing has been ludicrous. Every debate. The need by CNN to try and keep this looking looking super tight throughout just silly, that and pandering to what I can only assume would be Fox News viewers.
Click to expand...

CNN: "Our own poll shows voters thought Obama bested Romney in the town hall debate 46 to 39 percent. Therefore, it's a tie!"

CNN's coverage of the town hall debate was insanity.
 
G

gutter_trash

Banned
Bain capital closing Sensata Technologies in Florida then sending them jobs to China.
Please bring that up when Romney goes off the deep end about China this and that
 
C

Clevinger

Member
And I'll never understand why Blitzer has a prominent job. He's not handsome, he's not smart, and his monotonous as fuck voice seems to make even him want to fall asleep.
 
I

Incognito

Troll
damn, about to cast my ballot for obama for the fourth time. feels legit. and no, not fraud. 2008 primarie & general, and 2012 primary and now. fellow gaffers in texas, start voting today!
 
T

Tim-E

Member
Black Republican said:
has Romney said anything on Pakistan?
Click to expand...

He was against going after al Queda in Pakistan and Obama ended up being right about going after bin Laden there, so Romney really has no ground on the issue.


I think I'm the only PoliGAFer in West Virginia, but early voting starts today and I'm going to go vote then!
 
N

nib95

Banned
Averon said:
CNN: "Our own poll shows voters thought Obama bested Romney in the town hall debate 46 to 39 percent. Therefore, it's a tie!"

CNN's coverage of the town hall debate was insanity.
Click to expand...

Not just that, I swear he also (at one point) said that due to the poll being more Republican slanted than the national average CNN poll conducted earlier in the year, it was also a tie. I was like, huh? Doesn't that make it even less of a tie and more in favour of Obama? I know several posters including myself brought it up in the debate thread at the time. Baffling really.
 
C

Clevinger

Member
This article brings back memories. (written in 2007 about Obama's Pakistan comments)

(Reuters) - Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney criticized Democrat Barack Obama on Friday for vowing to strike al Qaeda targets inside Pakistan if necessary as the Obama camp issued a strident defense of his plan.

What had been an internecine foreign policy battle between rival Democrats Obama, an Illinois senator, and New York Sen. Hillary Clinton, spilled into the Republican arena in the heavily contested state of Iowa.

"I do not concur in the words of Barack Obama in a plan to enter an ally of ours... I don't think those kinds of comments help in this effort to draw more friends to our effort," Romney told reporters on the campaign trail.

Obama on Wednesday said if elected president in November 2008 he would be willing to launch military strikes against al Qaeda targets inside Pakistan with or without the approval of the Pakistani government of President Pervez Musharraf.

"If we have actionable intelligence about high-value terrorist targets and President Musharraf won't act, we will," Obama said.

Romney, the former Massachusetts governor who is one of the Republican front-runners, said U.S. troops "shouldn't be sent all over the world." He called Obama's comments "ill-timed" and "ill-considered."
Click to expand...
 
R

Rocket Scientist

Member
Disgusting how the Israëli Palestinian issue is not one of the main subjects. I'm continously baffled by how little pressure there is to solve a conflict which would immensly stabilize the region. After well over a decade of having followed the conflict it is still baffling and infuriating.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Seems like ev kicks off today in a lot of states. I need an update on CO by end of today, ppp. Get on that.
 
S

snacknuts

we all knew her
Can anyone here direct me to a good resource detailing why America's relationship with Israel is such a major political issue to so many people?
 
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