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[Black Mamba]

anyone discuss that Gloria Allred rumor that she's going to drop an October surprise?

Maybe a new undocumented worker for us to learn about?

What ever happened to that October surprise twitter?

 

[AniHawk]

What ever happened to that October surprise twitter?

it was a rickroll.

 

[PhoenixDark]

anyone discuss that Gloria Allred rumor that she's going to drop an October surprise?

Maybe a new undocumented worker for us to learn about?

What ever happened to that October surprise twitter?

Stop sounding so desperate. Allred has no credibility on anything

 

[Black Mamba]

Stop sounding so desperate. Allred has no credibility on anything

lol, I can't stand the woman.

Just mentioned her cuz apparently some GOP people are worried?

 

[Black Mamba]

Obama's lead grew in RAND, bucking the last 3 days.

Obama's number only changed by .01 which means today was exactly the same for him as last week which is good since last week it was certainly higher than it is now.

Romney dropped almost half a point. Obama basically +2 now.

I think RAND is settling in the 2-3 range for a while.



Also, more people switched to Obama from Romney in the past week but Obama intention to vote has still dropped (Romney's took a slight drop as well but still quite high).

 

[GhaleonEB]

Catching up on my weekend reading. Thought I'd toss a wee bit of hopiupm this way. Good column from Nate Cohn on Obama's lead in Ohio. A notable trend:

Obama holds a larger lead in polls that survey cell phones.

Good polls start with a representative sample, so the possibility that automated pollsters can't sample a quarter of the electorate could undermine a prerequisite to their ability to sustain success. If you had to choose between leading in polls that can survey the entirely electorate and those that cannot, you would choose the ones that can. And when you read articles about campaign internals showing Obama up by 3 or 4 points in Ohio, remember that the campaign pollsters are calling voters with cell phones.

More here. But that's the piece that jumped out.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Supposedly quinnipiac's poll of ohio tomorrow is looking closer. We'll see. As long as it's a 3-4 point lead for Obama I'll be fine.

 

[Hitokage]

Holy shit, David Gregory must have been looking at naked pics of Soledad O'Brien or something, cause he actually asked a great question today:

http://readingisforsnobs.blogspot.com/2012/10/david-gregory-wins-award-for-best.html

I've been waiting for someone, ANYONE in the mainstream media to point this shit out.

The easy response is that vouchers may not be as good, but they're something that will ensure something is provided.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Supposedly quinnipiac's poll of ohio tomorrow is looking closer. We'll see. As long as it's a 3-4 point lead for Obama I'll be fine.

And if its just O+1?

 

[GhaleonEB]

Supposedly quinnipiac's poll of ohio tomorrow is looking closer. We'll see. As long as it's a 3-4 point lead for Obama I'll be fine.

Good to know. I'm expecting a bit of a snap back to the mean. 3-4 points is about what I'd hope for. From Cohn's piece:

The Washington Post, CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac, and the Columbus Dispatch each showed Obama leading by at least 9 points prior to the first presidential debate. While Obama probably won’t lead by anything near as much in their next surveys, they each seem likely to show Obama leading by more than 1.9 points. In contrast, each of Romney’s best surveys has polled since the first presidential debate, and Republican-leaning firms like ARG and WAA have jumped into the fray.

 

[Hitokage]

And if its just O+1?

God. Just tune out for while. It'll do you good.

 

[Aaron Strife]

And if its just O+1?

We'll see.

 

[Black Mamba]

Supposedly quinnipiac's poll of ohio tomorrow is looking closer. We'll see. As long as it's a 3-4 point lead for Obama I'll be fine.

If it's in comparison to their last poll, that's a given. Even their last poll I didn't believe was on the real average.

If it's 3 or above, then it's another good poll showing Obama with a decent sized lead.

And that post on cell phone users is reassuring.

 

[AniHawk]

God. Just tune out for while. It'll do you good.

i can will the election back in obama's favor if i pay enough attention. i've seen the secret.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Good to know. I'm expecting a bit of a snap back to the mean. 3-4 points is about what I'd hope for. From Cohn's piece:

Do we have any data on how frequently the premium polls were conducted in 2008?

 

[Oblivion]

The easy response is that vouchers may not be as good, but they're something that will ensure something is provided.

Then the response to THAT would be "so you're admitting the free market is providing an inferior product compared to the GOVERNMENT?!?!!"

 

[Black Republican]

Supposedly quinnipiac's poll of ohio tomorrow is looking closer. We'll see. As long as it's a 3-4 point lead for Obama I'll be fine.

4 point lead me thinks

 

[AniHawk]

Do we have any data on how frequently the premium polls were conducted in 2008?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/oh/ohio_mccain_vs_obama-400.html#polls

qunnipiac polled it 3 times in october. they also polled consistently high for obama.

ppp polled 3 times as well. they were generally closer on average. their last poll was close to the overall polling average, but slightly off the result (which favored obama).

marist was the closest on average, but only polled twice in october, and the last was a week before the election.

 

[Hitokage]

Then the response to THAT would be "so you're admitting the free market is providing an inferior product compared to the GOVERNMENT?!?!!"

Hey now, connecting dots isn't what we do.

 

[Aaron Strife]

4 point lead me thinks

Relative to their previous poll that would certainly be closer. However I'm not looking forward to a 1-2 pt lead at all.

 

[Averon]

A 2-3 point lead in OH sounds about right. I'm sure this won't prevent PoliGAF from having a panic induced heart-attack, though.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

A 2-3 point lead in OH sounds about right. I'm sure this won't prevent PoliGAF from having a panic induced heart-attack, though.

I am more interested in wether Obama is above 50% or not.

Politico national poll R+2, 49-47

 

[thefro]

I am more interested in wether Obama is above 50% or not.

Politico national poll R+2, 49-47

Politico poll has 59% Conservatives, 2% Moderate responding. It's pretty goofy.

 

[Cheebo]

I really don't get why Romney keeps gaining after second debate.

 

[Souldriver]

Politico poll has 59% Conservatives, 2% Moderate responding. It's pretty goofy.

isn't it true that the split of self identifying conservatives/moderates/liberals is something like 50/35/15. So, if you are implying there are too much conservatives in the sample, it might not be the case.

 

[gkryhewy]

I really don't get why Romney keeps gaining after second debate.

He isn't really. It's leveled off. See http://election.princeton.edu/2012/10/21/anatomy-of-a-bounce/

 

[The Librarian]

 

[Cheebo]

He isn't really. It's leveled off. See http://election.princeton.edu/2012/10/21/anatomy-of-a-bounce/

He gained in politicos today and nbc's yesterday vs their polls after the first debate.

 

[gkryhewy]

He gained in politicos today and nbc's yesterday vs their polls after the first debate.

I will give you politico, but NBC's prior poll was before the first debate.

 

[Clevinger]

What was it before?

And Black Republican was right on the money.

edit:
@CharlieKayeCBS
In the Quinnipiac @CBSNews Poll one in 5 Ohio likely voters say they have already cast their ballot and Obama leads in this group 54-39%.


Charlie Kaye ‏@CharlieKayeCBS
In the Quinnipiac @CBSNews Poll of likely Ohio voters it's President Obama 50%, Mitt Romney 45%. The margin of error is +/- 3%.

@CharlieKayeCBS
The President's lead in the Quinnipiac @CBSNews Poll of Ohio has been cut in half since September.

@CharlieKayeCBS
In the Quinnipiac @CBSNews Poll among likely Ohio voters who will cast their ballot on Election Day, it's much tighter, Obama 49% Romney 47%

 

[The Librarian]

bam

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162...lead-in-ohio-narrows/?tag=AverageHero;leadHed

 

[Cheebo]

I am really starting to think the most likely outcome is Obama winning the EC but losing the popular vote.

 

[thefro]

isn't it true that the split of self identifying conservatives/moderates/liberals is something like 50/35/15. So, if you are implying there are too much conservatives in the sample, it might not be the case.

It's also from the 15th to the 18th, so old poll with half of it before the 2nd debate.

 

[Clevinger]

It's also from the 15th to the 18th, so old poll with half of it before the 2nd debate.

So you're saying Romney will be doing even better?

Spoiler

 

[Black Republican]

oh wow, a 5 point spread, a lil better than i thought.

 

[Clevinger]

Jon Husted better get started throwing out absentee ballots.

 

[Black Republican]

Jon Husted better get started throwing out absentee ballots.

i think he'll just go the cleveland and handcuff himself near a polling station. Shit is serious to him.

 

[Hitokage]

WHY ISN'T IT +10 OBAMA?

 

[Souldriver]

WHY ISN'T IT +10 OBAMA?

Because Romney has basically closed the gap and the race is tied.

 

[gkryhewy]

I am really starting to think the most likely outcome is Obama winning the EC but losing the popular vote.

I think it's more likely he wins the EC and eeks out the popular vote by about 1-1.5%

 

[Hitokage]

Because Romney has basically closed the gap and the race is tied.

WHICH MEANS ROMNEY HAS ALREADY WON

 

[The Librarian]

WHY ISN'T IT +10 OBAMA?

"Romney has cut Obama's lead in Ohio by half!"

"Who gives a shit. It's 50-45."

 

[Souldriver]

WHICH MEANS ROMNEY HAS ALREADY WON

Well, Romney seems to win a few points after every debate, so after tonight you're probably right.

 

[Averon]

If Obama wins the EC but loses the PV, you'll hear conservatives drone on for the next 4 years how Obama's an illegitimate president. Well, some do that now but it'll be even more pronounced and said proudly in the mainstream.

 

[Oblivion]

bam

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162...lead-in-ohio-narrows/?tag=AverageHero;leadHed

Maybe it's lowered expectations at this point, but that headline made the poll seem much worse than it actually was.

 

[The Librarian]

Well, Romney seems to win a few points after every debate, so after tonight you're probably right.

.................................

...

Let's not kid ourselves, everyone. The Q poll is a great one for Obama.

 

[Black Republican]

Maybe it's lowered expectations at this point, but that headline made the poll seem much worse than it actually was.

gotta get them clicks mang

 

[talisayNon]

[joke post]

guys obama down to 59..9% on 538 tracker

<link here>Rick Roll</link here>

[/joke post]

 

[Souldriver]

.................................

...

Let's not kid ourselves, everyone. The Q poll is a great one for Obama.

Well, right now the popular vote has a slight edge for Romney, while Obama still has a bit of an edge in electoral votes. We can expect a 2 point bump for Romney after his last debate. You do the math. Obvious popular vote win for Romney, small electoral vote win for Romney. Time to face the music.

 

[Y2Kev]

Wow, 5 pt lead in the crucial must win state with 20% margin in early voting? Bad news for Osama. I mean BO.