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[electricpirate]

Going by what I see on twitter isn't lying lol, someone claimed it was NH.

Posting unverified facts to push your narrative in here doesn't reflect well either...

 

[Frank the Great]

biden is awesome in angry white guy mode. i wish more angry white guys shared his views.

nothing like some righteous indignation mixed with inspiring rhetoric, as opposed to the usual hatred-spewing nonsense that stokes people's basest instincts that we normally get from angry white guys. i wonder if he runs in 2016 (and hilldawg doesn't) if he'd be able to close the gender gap for democrats among men.

 

[izakq]

Bad news for Obama

Obama going third party confirmed.

 

[gcubed]

Obama going third party confirmed.

Obama = Vita

 

[pigeon]

Nate Cohn says that the Gallup enemy isn't in the south, it's in ourselves:

Last week, Gallup released a demographic breakdown of its likely voter survey, which at that time found Romney leading by 4 points, 50-46. But it found that Romney’s biggest gains were in just one region: the South, where Romney held a massive 22-point lead. Perhaps predictably, this aroused latent liberal suspicions that Obama’s deep weakness in the South was responsible for Romney’s strength in the national polls. But a closer look suggests that the gap between the national and state polls probably isn’t the result of deep weakness in the South.

While Gallup shows Romney leading by 22 points in the south, the other national polls don’t show anything similar. The other six national surveys with regional breakdowns show Obama trailing by just 7.5 points—that’s better than his 9 point defeat against McCain four years ago.

State polls partially confirm Obama’s resilience in Dixie. Although the inland South is under-polled, the Atlantic coastal states of Florida, Virginia, Georgia, and North Carolina represent nearly half of the South’s population, and post-debate polls show Obama losing by between 0 and 8 points in all four states, with smaller drop-offs from '08 than his national decline of around 7 points....

For illustrative purposes, consider the most extreme example: Alabama. Obama won 10 percent of the white vote in 2008. That’s right. Ten percent. So if Obama lost every white person in Alabama and black turnout stayed at ’04 levels, Obama would only lose a net-15 points (since whites only represented 65 percent of Alabama voters in ‘08)....

So if the South isn't Obama's problem, what is? If any one region is driving Obama’s popular vote problem, it’s the liberal Northeast, where many of Obama’s ’08 supporters appear undecided....

In states where Obama made big gains by persuading white Bush voters, Obama's support has fallen precipitously to levels near Kerry's support in 2004. Consider the well-polled state of Wisconsin, where Kerry won by less than one percent, Obama won by 14 in 2008, and Obama now leads by just three....

Conversely, Obama is doing much better than Kerry in the states where his gains were driven by changes in the composition of the electorate or strength in well-educated suburbs, like Colorado, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Nevada, Virginia, and North Carolina.

http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate...responsible-obamas-weak-national-poll-numbers

I have no comments on why liberal white voters are apparently trying to destroy America.

 

[Clevinger]

Bad news for Obama

Down three is bad either way.

 

[The Librarian]

Down three is bad either way.

Just like being up three in another national poll that was release today is a good thing. National polls aren't making much sense.

 

[Cheebo]

Posting unverified facts to push your narrative in here doesn't reflect well either...

Neither does Romney increasing his lead in their poll which was +1 after first debate.

 

[Cousteau]

Dude on Alex Wagner's show just said "I'M GOIN DEEP!"

Funny and Hot at the same time.

 

[AniHawk]

quinippiac had obama at +14, then +9, and finally +7 in 2008. final result was +4.6.

they went from +10 to +5. if history repeats itself, and obama is +3 before the election, the win margin would be +0.6.

quin was really off the average in ohio in 2008, where rcp pegged obama to win at about 2 points. seems they're up again. i don't know how accurate they are otherwise (2008 florida showed them much closer to the overall result). they do seem to match the numbers from obama's internal polls though.

 

[AlteredBeast]

Has everyone backed off the cliff yet?

I am now back to +10 confidence points for Obama. I think Friday's posts were just a moment of weakness.

 

[apana]

I haven't gotten a chance to see all the new polls, but looking at the real clear average it seems like Romney is still doing well.

 

[Father_Brain]

Nate Cohn says that the Gallup enemy isn't in the south, it's in ourselves:



http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate...responsible-obamas-weak-national-poll-numbers

I have no comments on why liberal white voters are apparently trying to destroy America.

Cohn's talking about white voters who broke for Bush in '04, so not that liberal.

 

[Red Blaster]

Cohn's talking about white voters who broke for Bush in '04, so not that liberal.

lawl remember Zell Miller

 

[The Librarian]

quinippiac had obama at +14, then +9, and finally +7 in 2008. final result was +4.6.

they went from +10 to +5. if history repeats itself, and obama is +3 before the election, the win margin would be +0.6.

quin was really off the average in ohio in 2008, where rcp pegged obama to win at about 2 points. seems they're up again. i don't know how accurate they are otherwise (2008 florida showed them much closer to the overall result). they do seem to match the numbers from obama's internal polls though.

Related:

 

[Sirpopopop]

Reagan was the worst President in United States History.

I'll take 43 over Reagan.

Come at me bro.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Has everyone backed off the cliff yet?

I am now back to +10 confidence points for Obama. I think Friday's posts were just a moment of weakness.

I looked at the cliff, pondered it for a moment, then turned around and drove off into the distance, away from the edge.

And you know me, I don't take losses very well.

 

[Clevinger]

Reagan was the worst President in United States History.

I'll take 43 over Reagan.

Come at me bro.

Reagan shoved us onto the path to 43.

 

[The Librarian]

Hm.

Romney has been very costly on Russia […] If you want to create a situation, where the only way to go about things is to go back to the Cold War, that is what is being done here. It’s very dangerous.

I don’t think the US public wants to go to another world war over values in this way. If it persists, it will be a slide down a very slippery slope.

:/

 

[Crisco]

Imagine if the 2010 census didn't give Romney a free 8 EVs. Obama could win the electoral college with just Ohio + safe blue states. He could also win without Ohio and just two of CO/NV/NH/IA instead of all of them. We would all be smoking cigars and popping champagne bottles already.

 

[Jadedx]

Reagan was the worst President in United States History.

I'll take 43 over Reagan.

Come at me bro.

Bush def is the worst, Reagan never created a fake war.

 

[HylianTom]

I've always thought of the Election of 1980 as our "red letter date" in political trajectory. So much damage, in just one cycle. Ouch.

 

[reilo]

Bush def is the worst, Reagan never created a fake war.

He only escalated a fake one to new heights.

 

[AlteredBeast]

Imagine if the 2010 census didn't give Romney a free 8 EVs. Obama could win the electoral college with just Ohio + safe blue states. He could also win without Ohio and just two of CO/NV/NH/IA instead of all of them. We would all be smoking cigars and popping champagne bottles already.

You mean, imagine is shitty states didn't start bleeding population towards better ones? People getting the hell out of MI and OH are about as smart as you get.

 

[pigeon]

Hm.



:/

That's a hell of an interview.

In the end, this is what I think: Making foreign policy on Iran a serious issue in the US elections — what Romney has done, in itself — is a heavy blow to the ultimate interests of the United States and Israel.

From the former head of the Mossad.

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2012/al-monitor/israelsecurityiran.html#ixzz2A2DySOjZ

 

[TacticalFox88]

I've always thought of the Election of 1980 as our "red letter date" in political trajectory. So much damage, in just one cycle. Ouch.

It's utterly amazing how one election can severely fuck over a nation a generation to come.

 

[AniHawk]

gallup:

obama approval is 49-46 (+1 disapproval)

rv: 48-47 romney (-1r, +1o)
lv: 51-46 romney (-1r)

 

[Cloudy]

Gallup

Approval 49-46 (-1 net)
48-47 R (R-1 O+1) RV
51-45 R (R-1) LV

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Romney's fucked based on that gallup

 

[The Librarian]

WHOA THERE, GALLUP

 

[Clevinger]

Romney's fucked based on that gallup

Uh, what?

 

[Cloudy]

Romney's fucked based on that gallup

How so? 6 pts up in LV is still great

 

[pigeon]

Gallup

Approval 49-46 (-1 net)
48-47 R (R-1 O+1) RV
51-45 R (R-1) LV

Skewed poll that doesn't properly represent the "people who think Obama's doing a great job but want to vote for Romney anyway" demographic.

 

[AniHawk]

tomorrow will be all post 2nd-debate. we'll see if romney had a good monday that'll disappear from that polling or something.

i think lv in gallup is a lost cause. we'll see if obama can get back into a tie or lead in gallup's rv.

the constant 49-50 approval rating is such a weird thing for him to be so down in the lv.

 

[jbug617]

Did Ras give IA numbers yet

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Uh, what?

How so? 6 pts up in LV is still great

I was trying to be sarcastic

 

[Clevinger]

Skewed poll that doesn't properly represent the "people who think Obama's doing a great job but want to vote for Romney anyway" demographic.

Someone said the approval rating is based on all adults, not RV or LV. If that's true, it doesn't have much to do with these polls.

 

[Angelus Errare]

It's utterly amazing how one election can severely fuck over a nation a generation to come.

Or how we have a candidate who believes in said President from that election. Or how we have millions of US citizens who don't know how badly said election fucked over a nation.

 

[Averon]

Assuming these numbers persist, Gallup will either be very right or very wrong on Nov 7th. No inbetween.

 

[pigeon]

Someone said the approval rating is based on all adults, not RV or LV. If that's true, it doesn't have much to do with these polls.

Yeah, it was a joke. Approval rating hasn't correlated this year at all.

Assuming these numbers persist, Gallup will either be very right or very wrong on Nov 7th. No inbetween.

There's plenty of time for them to get back to a tie before the election.

 

[RDreamer]

Should I go vote today? I believe I can.

 

[gutter_trash]

Bush def is the worst, Reagan never created a fake war.

Central American parachuted dictators

 

[Chichikov]

Bush def is the worst, Reagan never created a fake war.

Grenada and Nicaragua were way more fake than the Iraq war.

 

[Downhome]

Did Ras give IA numbers yet

Tied at 48%.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...al_election/iowa/election_2012_iowa_president

President Obama and Mitt Romney are now dead even in the battleground state of Iowa.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Iowa Voters finds Obama and Romney each earning 48% support. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, while two percent (2%) are still undecided.

 

[AniHawk]

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/poll-obama-tops-70-percent-support-among-latinos--1

President Barack Obama has eclipsed 70 percent support among Latino voters nationwide in the latest installment of a weekly tracking survey conducted by Latino Decisions.

...

The poll also shows a high level of engagement among Latino voters — crucial to an Obama campaign that is banking on a high voter turnout among its core supporters. Seventy-seven percent of Latino voters surveyed in Monday's poll said they talked with friends or family members about candidates or issues in the last few months.

A poll based on an oversample of Latino voters from Sunday's NBC News/WallStreet Journal survey also shows Obama reaching 70 percent among the growing voting bloc. The poll shows Obama earning the support of 70 percent of likely Latino voters, while Romney trails with 25 percent support. Obama polled at 71 percent among likely Latino voters in the previous NBC/WSJ poll in late-September, while Romney trailed with 21 percent at that time.

 

[Protein]

Will Texas ever become a swing-state in the near future?

 

[Cloudy]

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...but-obama-remains-electoral-college-favorite/

Interesting stuff on 538 today

 

[speculawyer]

Bush def is the worst, Reagan never created a fake war.

Reagan gave us fake wars but they were relatively small, outsourced, and killed only poor foreign brown people so no one cared.

Grenada and Nicaragua were way more fake than the Iraq war.

And El Salvador and Guatemala.

 

[TacticalFox88]

Will Texas ever become a swing-state in the near future?

It's not a question of "if", it's "when". 2020 election is going to be VERY interesting. If not then, for SURE 2024

 

[Chichikov]

Will Texas ever become a swing-state in the near future?

If Latino voting and demographic trends remain unchanged, it will become competitive around 2020 (maybe even 2016, but that's a stretch, like NC and Indiana were in 2008).